Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[Gregg]

[zow2]

2 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

Hard to process after Cinncy’s win last night the Bills are currently in 11th place in the AFC. To state this week is a must win is an understatement. The reality is they are going to have to win out which based upon the season thus far, it’s more unlikely than likely.  11th freaking place for a team that should be dominating but yet our HC is coaching like he’s in his first year. 
 

 

 

I thought Cincinnati winning (now 11th) bumped Buffalo to 12th place? Not that it matters..  12 out of 16 is horrific for this club.  I don't know how McD, Beane and Pegula can sleep at night.

[TFBillsfan]

4 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

I thought Cincinnati winning (now 11th) bumped Buffalo to 12th place? Not that it matters..  12 out of 16 is horrific for this club.  I don't know how McD, Beane and Pegula can sleep at night.

We were 10th before Cinncys win last night.  Only teams lower are NE, NYJ, Raiders, Chargers and Titans! 

 

🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮

[zow2]

2 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

We were 10th before Cinncys win last night.  Only teams lower are NE, NYJ, Raiders, Chargers and Titans! 

 

🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮

 

Ugh.  The Bills and Chargers are massive underachievers.  But at least the LAC were able to win @NE and @NYJ    

[TFBillsfan]

4 hours ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

no.  U R correct, left that game undecided.  will retry.

yes, 53%.  but hardly "season is over" w loss to KC....how many years would ee be smiling with these odds in the 70's or 80's, Even a good portion of the 2000's?

Except this ISNT the 70’s, 80’s or 2000’s. This team should be a lock for the playoffs which is the minimum bar for the season. The HC has literally blown another season with rookie level head coaching and a D that can’t protect a lead in the 4th qtr after the offense has put them in a position to win.  (NYJ, NE, DEN, PHILLY) At minimum if the D did their job which is led by the HC, they wouldn’t be in this position. 
 

The amount of blown leads under McDermott’s tenure is beyond ridiculous but unfortunately all too often the norm. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by TFBillsfan

[The Frankish Reich]

Sad thing is that even if we pull it off and win out this season, we still only have a 47% chance of making the playoffs. That Philly loss was a killer.

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Sad thing is that even if we pull it off and win out this season, we still only have a 47% chance of making the playoffs. That Philly loss was a killer.

 

There's no way this is correct.

[DBilz2500]

45 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Sad thing is that even if we pull it off and win out this season, we still only have a 47% chance of making the playoffs. That Philly loss was a killer.

We win out and playoff odds are at 99%, we win all games except Dallas we are 65% to make, we win all games except KC around 55% to make it.

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

as of today, 73-79% odds of making with 4/5 run.  better odds include a  win against KC..  73% w loss to KC but win all other games.

 

There is no chance our odds of getting in is 73% if we lose one.  I don't care for odds anyways.  Better off manually selecting games with the playoff machine and you will see for yourself how bad it is if we lose a game.  Even if that game is Dallas.  Denver losing is our best case in the scenario that we lose 1.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

There is no chance our odds of getting in is 73% if we lose one.  I don't care for odds anyways.  Better off manually selecting games with the playoff machine and you will see for yourself how bad it is if we lose a game.  Even if that game is Dallas.  Denver losing is our best case in the scenario that we lose 1.

 

The teams in front of us are likely playing each other in several matchups

[Scott7975]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The teams in front of us are likely playing each other in several matchups

 

Yes and everytime one loses the other gets the spot. Go play with it.  Other than us retaking Denver, I have to make stupid losses like a team losing to Titans, Bears, or Jets.  Even then Bills don't make it and I have the Bills losing to Dallas, not KC.  They are already in too good a position for them to just knock each other out. Maybe 1 or 2 get knocked out that way but there are 6 teams in a better position than we are.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Scott7975

[Bferra13]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Sad thing is that even if we pull it off and win out this season, we still only have a 47% chance of making the playoffs. That Philly loss was a killer.

No way lol. All these other teams are so banged up they might not win another game. Bills actually arnt in that bad a spot after all the game and injury help they've received here lately.

[TBBills Fan]

11th out of 16th in the AFC....there is no way I would have guessed this before the season  🤮

[Big Turk]

16 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes and everytime one loses the other gets the spot. Go play with it.  Other than us retaking Denver, I have to make stupid losses like a team losing to Titans, Bears, or Jets.  Even then Bills don't make it and I have the Bills losing to Dallas, not KC.  They are already in too good a position for them to just knock each other out. Maybe 1 or 2 get knocked out that way but there are 6 teams in a better position than we are.

 

Will likely depend on the Bills being involved in multi-team ties that end up knocking out teams that the Bills would lose tiebreakers to first that they haven't played...perhaps if the Bills win the remaining AFC games they could at least tie some teams on AFC record tiebreakers. Hard to say since there are a lot of situations.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Right now we're picking 13th overall. 

[Bills!Win!]

Im just going to pretend that all the games against the afc teams are divisional round playoff games. If we lose we are eliminated 

Edited December 5, 2023 by Bills!Win!

[stlbills13]

Just win out. I understand there are totally reasonable scenarios where we still miss the playoffs even if we win out. But I'll take my chances there given all the backup QB's in the AFC. There are going to be some head scratching results the rest of the way in the AFC. 

[H2o]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Sad thing is that even if we pull it off and win out this season, we still only have a 47% chance of making the playoffs. That Philly loss was a killer.

The Denver loss was the killer. Missed kick. Game over. Conference foe defeated. Wait...... You had 12 men on the field. 

[Success]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Sad thing is that even if we pull it off and win out this season, we still only have a 47% chance of making the playoffs. That Philly loss was a killer.

 

If we win out, we're making the playoffs.  I don't know how they're deriving that 47%. 

 

[Scott7975]

17 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Will likely depend on the Bills being involved in multi-team ties that end up knocking out teams that the Bills would lose tiebreakers to first that they haven't played...perhaps if the Bills win the remaining AFC games they could at least tie some teams on AFC record tiebreakers. Hard to say since there are a lot of situations.

 

Thats why I said you should go play with the playoff machine and you can see for yourself.