Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[strive_for_five_guy]

The Bills better be looking at next week as our Super Bowl. 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

per NYT:  80% chance if beat chiefs and other 3 games but lose to cowboys.  50 % if they lose 2 more games.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

The Bills don't usually do that, so what are you talking about?

Yea seriously…if we run the table or win 4 games against most or all of Dallas/kc/miami, why would we assume one on done?

[Dr.Sack]

McDermott will go into KC and clap his team to victory. 

[ShakAttack]

Wonder if there is any shot Miami resting starters by week 18.

1 minute ago, Dr.Sack said:

McDermott will go into KC and clap his team to victory. 

It wasn’t easy, and I had to keep reminding myself throughout the game, but I was actually rooting for KC today merely because I did not want to see them coming off a loss.

 

And oddly enough, they lose the game and it felt oh so Bills-esque… but coming from the Chiefs!?!?

 

So now I am starting to believe that it isn’t the Bills, these years of misfortune, maybe it’s just me!  After all, the first NFL game I have ever watched was …….. Wide Right
 

Sorry guys, I’d stop if I could. 

[Dr.Sack]

21 minutes ago, BobBelcher said:

Wonder if there is any shot Miami resting starters by week 18.

It wasn’t easy, and I had to keep reminding myself throughout the game, but I was actually rooting for KC today merely because I did not want to see them coming off a loss.

 

And oddly enough, they lose the game and it felt oh so Bills-esque… but coming from the Chiefs!?!?

 

So now I am starting to believe that it isn’t the Bills, these years of misfortune, maybe it’s just me!  After all, the first NFL game I have ever watched was …….. Wide Right
 

Sorry guys, I’d stop if I could. 

KC’s defense looks like it is starting to take damage. I won’t get my hopes up. I fully expect a beat down. 

[QCity]

31 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

per NYT:  80% chance if beat chiefs and other 3 games but lose to cowboys.  50 % if they lose 2 more games.

 

This is wrong. Losing 2 basically eliminates them (3% chance).

 

As of this week if they can go 4-1 they have a ~59% chance of getting in. The Jacksonville/Cincy Monday Night game has almost no effect.

 

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by QCity

[Drew21PA]

One game at a time

 

beat KC 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

5 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

This is wrong. Losing 2 basically eliminates them (3% chance).

 

As of this week if they can go 4-1 they have a ~59% chance of getting in. The Jacksonville/Cincy Monday Night game has almost no effect.

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#kc-buf-14=loss&lac-buf-16=loss&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-dal-15=win&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss

 

Something else to say to me mr stats?

Edited December 4, 2023 by Joe Ferguson forever

[Ray Stonada]

2 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#kc-buf-14=loss&lac-buf-16=loss&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss

You didn’t fill in the loss against the cowboys. When you do the chance goes down to 56%.

 

If we lose twice our chance is less then 8%.

[Joe Ferguson forever]

1 minute ago, Ray Stonada said:

You didn’t fill in the loss against the cowboys. When you do the chance goes down to 56%.

 

If we lose twice our chance is less then 8%.

read what i typed the first post re the new probs....

[Ray Stonada]

Just now, Joe Ferguson forever said:

read what i typed the first post re the new probs....

I did. You’re wrong. You’re not filling the form out right. 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

4 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

I did. You’re wrong. You’re not filling the form out right. 

why the "X".  i didn't stipulate which 2 games they lose for 50%.  so sue me.  Lawyers who wants a gig?

 

AND?

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by Joe Ferguson forever

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

We are like 1.5 games back for a WC spot today. Our season is very much alive. Gotta come out of the bye week on a mission 

 

Yep... and KC lost today, too. I know some fans were weirdly rooting for KC, but this makes everything even more alive.

[Process]

As far as betting odds go, bills chances didn't budge even after a favorable day. 

 

DK had them at +500 to make it before today and they are +500 now. 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

As far as betting odds go, bills chances didn't budge even after a favorable day. 

 

DK had them at +500 to make it before today and they are +500 now. 

good to know.  I'll go to the site soon to make a

bet.

9 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

why the "X".  i didn't stipulate which 2 games they lose for 50%.  so sue me.  Lawyers who wants a gig?

 

AND?

 

now a lol.  i worded it quite carefully.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Joe Ferguson forever

[Ray Stonada]

18 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

why the "X".  i didn't stipulate which 2 games they lose for 50%.  so sue me.  Lawyers who wants a gig?

By not “stipulating” two games as losses you’re just leaving them undecided.

 

So your percentages are wrong.

 

It’s not 50% if they lose two games, it is much, much lower: 3% to 7% depending on which two they lose.

[QCity]

50 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#kc-buf-14=loss&lac-buf-16=loss&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-dal-15=win&buf-ne-17=win&mia-buf-18=loss

 

Something else to say to me mr stats?

 

Yeah, PEBKEC.

[Punch]

1 hour ago, BobBelcher said:

Wonder if there is any shot Miami resting starters by week 18.

Do you really see McDaniel conceding the AFC East by resting starters? That would surprise me, but they aren't winning that game even with Marino in his prime, the 'Killer Bs' and Larry ***** Csonka, so who knows.

 

[mannc]

46 minutes ago, Punch said:

Do you really see McDaniel conceding the AFC East by resting starters? That would surprise me, but they aren't winning that game even with Marino in his prime, the 'Killer Bs' and Larry ***** Csonka, so who knows.

 

A lot of things could be in play in that last game.  For example, maybe Miami avoids playing us in the wildcard game—and instead gets Pittsburgh or the Colts—if they lose to us…in which case, maybe they sit some guys.