Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[Ray Stonada]

I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone). So I did some calcuating of playoff odds as a distration, using the NYT simulator. 

 

If we win out: >99% chance of making it in

 

If we lose to KC only: 51%

If we lose to Cowboys: 63%

If we lose to the Chargers: 44%

If we lose to the Pats: 51%

If we lose to Miami: 45%

 

If we lose twice, no matter who: <10% chance

 

So there you have it.

 

Unfortunately, I am pessimistic about our chances to win close games, in the playoffs. In my opinion, you can pin this whole season (as well as the Houston playoff game and the 13 seconds game and a bunch of other games) on McD's soft defenses and bad strategy in crunchtime. I know all teams feel they should win more, but with the Buffalo Bills it is statistically indisputable. Our team loses far more than it should, given our offensive and defensive performance. I would love to see a stat that shows how much better or worse a team performs than it's statistical rankings. You could call it the Coaching Coefficient. My guess is McD would be pretty low.

 

I am bummed because no matter how hard we play (and these guys are playing hard, especially guys like Bernard or Floyd who are still not jaded by our past) we are hamstrung by this. It's like a dark cloud hanging over the team. And until that cloud is gone, it's hard to really enjoy this great bunch of players.

[BillMafia716ix]

If Josh Allen can continue to play like he did yesterday. Winning out is not impossible.

[Ray Stonada]

Just now, BillMafia716ix said:

If Josh Allen can continue to play like he did yesterday. Winning out is not impossible.

 

I agree. But best to be up three scores by the 4th quarter, otherwise we might get McD'ed.

[boyst]

whats the link for people unable to use google or simply too lazy? (asking for a friend)

[Ray Stonada]

2 minutes ago, boyst said:

whats the link for people unable to use google or simply too lazy? (asking for a friend)

 

With compliments to your friend

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#phi-buf-12=loss

 

PS we currently have a 17% chance according to them.

[Scott7975]

5 minutes ago, boyst said:

whats the link for people unable to use google or simply too lazy? (asking for a friend)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#phi-buf-12=loss

 

Personally I prefer to use this though: https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Edited November 27, 2023 by Scott7975

[Chaos]

This is the result of the Bills winning out, and the likely favorite winning all of the other games. 

[Just Jack]

Even if they make the playoffs, it'll be another one and done.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

lol just stop man, they're done

 

[thenorthremembers]

The only scenario I see where they get in is if they win out and Miami loses to both Baltimore and Dallas.  

[K D]

[Chaos]

9 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

The only scenario I see where they get in is if they win out and Miami loses to both Baltimore and Dallas.  

Bills beating Miami, and Miami losing to any two other teams is the Bills only realistic chance.  You have identiified the most likely two other losses, but we can pray for upsets. 

[Ray Stonada]

I am trying to convince myself that if McD is shockingly let go, and Doc Brady made interim head coach, we could win the Super Bowl. Just based on Brady's innate feel for situations. But... we'd have no defensive coordinator. AAAAHHHH.

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, Ray Stonada said:

I am trying to convince myself that if McD is shockingly let go, and Doc Brady made interim head coach, we could win the Super Bowl. Just based on Brady's innate feel for situations. But... we'd have no defensive coordinator. AAAAHHHH.

Ah, clever job security strategy for the HC.

[boyst]

tank and move all in to get MHJ.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

1 hour ago, BillMafia716ix said:

If Josh Allen can continue to play like he did yesterday. Winning out is not impossible.

 

If Sean McDermott continues to coach like Sean McDermott, winning out is impossible. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, BillMafia716ix said:

If Josh Allen can continue to play like he did yesterday. Winning out is not impossible.

But that’s been the problem with him and the whole team. It’s completely inconsistent every game this year. 
 

this team can beat any team in the nfl. We also can lose to any team as well. It’s so frustrating.

[Ray Stonada]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

tank and move all in to get MHJ.

 

I feel like it would be tough to get Josh to tank. You might have to sit him.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

tank and move all in to get MHJ.

I honestly had that thought today. Trade Diggs (save a bunch of money) draft Harrison and Rome O and we are loaded at receiver for great value for st least five years. 

[McBean]

Winning out does nothing.

 

why?

 

We will lose first round in the most impossible way and guess what? Sean McDermott will still be employed here.

 

If losing out insures we can McClap, that’s the best outcome for us fans this season and for the future.