Who’s the best QB prospect in the ‘24 draft class?

[H2o]

5 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

Penix has a cannon for an arm

I don't see it when he's out there on the field. 

[H2o]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:36 AM, bills6969 said:

Penix has a cannon for an arm

My apologies. Watching Penix the other night against Texas, I saw him throw some really nice passes to all levels of the field and at varying velocities. I also saw him absolutely rip a few of them. You were indeed correct my friend. 

[bills6969]

On 1/3/2024 at 9:31 AM, H2o said:

My apologies. Watching Penix the other night against Texas, I saw him throw some really nice passes to all levels of the field and at varying velocities. I also saw him absolutely rip a few of them. You were indeed correct my friend. 

I sure hope the Jets/Pats don’t draft him

[DCOrange]

I've only finished scouting Caleb Williams and Bo Nix so far. I obviously have Caleb ahead of Bo Nix; significantly so. Having said that, I was pretty disappointed in Caleb's tape. There's a lot of issues to work on there IMO. Still a sky high ceiling considering his package of physical tools, elusiveness in the pocket, and creativity, but I ended up having him on par with Jordan Love, Daniel Jones, and Trey Lance in terms of draft grade, slightly behind guys like Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield.

 

I didn't have a full scouting report on Kyler Murray because it sounded like he was going the baseball route for most of the process, but I definitely think Kyler was a more polished QB at the time than Caleb is right now and a more accurate passer as well.

 

My scouting reports on Caleb and Bo are here:

 

https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2024-draft/caleb-williams/

https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2024-draft/bo-nix/

[GASabresIUFan]

On 11/25/2023 at 2:56 PM, bills6969 said:

IMO,  Bo Nix will be the best of the bunch.  I also like Penix, he has a cannon.

I’m an IU alum and a UGA season ticket holder.  I watched UGA terrorize Nix when he was at Auburn, and Penix get beat up at IU with a porous O Line.

Both Nix and Penix better go to teams with great OLines, because both hold the ball to long and get rattled when their rushed.  Penix has a terrible injury history. I wouldn’t take either in the 1st rd and wouldn’t take Nix in the 2nd either.

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I’m an IU alum and a UGA season ticket holder.  I watched UGA terrorize Nix when he was at Auburn, and Penix get beat up at IU with a porous O Line.

Both Nix and Penix better go to teams with great OLines, because both hold the ball to long and get rattled when their rushed.  Penix has a terrible injury history. I wouldn’t take either in the 1st rd and wouldn’t take Nix in the 2nd either.

Oregon (and Nix) did an amazing job making sure he got the ball out extremely quickly once he transferred there. I think he’d be a good fit with Miami, Denver, or the Shanahan disciples. 

[DCOrange]

Finished up my scouting of Jayden Daniels...I don't really get it. His running ability is definitely in the realm of Lamar Jackson (not as good, but the comparison isn't crazy), but his passing ability just seems quite bad. Beyond hitting stationary targets squatting down against zone defense, he really struggled with ball placement and there isn't an easy explanation as to what is throwing his accuracy off aside from "he just doesn't have it". I ended up with a 4th round grade on him and a reasonable peak comp for him being our beloved Tyrod Taylor.

 

https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2024-draft/jayden-daniels/

Edited January 17 by DCOrange

[H2o]

I'm not high on this year's draft class like some are. 

 

Caleb Williams is heralded as the best QB prospect, but I think he folds under pressure. Happened against Utah twice last year, saw it against ND this year, and Oregon this year. He has all the talent in the world, but seems to rely on the talent alone. When things go south, it almost seems like he can't shake it off. He'll likely be the first QB off of the board, but I don't see him as a surefire franchise QB or anything. 

 

I like Bo Nix, and I think you are correct in your assessment (DCOrange) that he could do well in a timing based offense. I also like his overall athleticism for today's game, as he can run enough and has enough movement in the pocket to get free or extend plays. I also think he's pretty quick through his progressions and has a pretty good feel with his ball placement. 

 

I'm not that high on Daniels either. Like you said, great runner and meh passer. 

 

Drake Maye is hard to read for me. I don't think he's that good, just my two, but he does have all the tools. His arm isn't really all that impressive and I've seen him be indecisive at times. He had some pretty rough games this year too, but his favorite WR did go to the NFL last draft. Josh Downs was his guy. 

 

Michael Penix is going to be solid I believe. Probably won't be a 1st Round pick, but he has a live arm and can make every throw. He did have a plethora of talent at the WR position though. I think the landing spot will be key for him as well.

 

JJ McCarthy is not someone I'm really high on. His numbers were meh, Michigan doesn't really lean on him, and they had one of the best OL's in the country. I really don't think he will be much of anything in the NFL and Harbaugh basically covered him up the last 2 years. 

[DCOrange]

Just finished up with Drake Maye this afternoon. He has my stamp of approval. There's definitely some stuff to clean up, but he checks most of the boxes teams are looking for and I think he has a few relatively easy things to fix that should help take his game to another level. Considering I've already finished Caleb and Daniels as well, I'm pretty confident Maye will ultimately be my #1 QB in the class.

[DCOrange]

I am officially through the projected top 6 QBs in the draft. Still planning to do a few others as well, but as it currently sits, my grades are as follows:

• 91 - Drake Maye - Top 5 pick caliber
• 86 - Caleb Williams - Top 10 pick caliber
• 79 - J.J. McCarthy - Early 2nd round
• 76 - Bo Nix - 3rd round
• 75 - Michael Penix Jr. - Late 3rd round
• 73 - Jayden Daniels - Late 4th round

 

https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2024-draft/overall-grades/

Edited January 30 by DCOrange

[DrDawkinstein]

On 11/25/2023 at 2:56 PM, bills6969 said:

This is the most loaded QB class that I can remember:

 

Caleb Williams

Drake Maye

Michael Penix

Bo Nix

Jayden Daniels

JJ McCarthy

Shadeur Sanders

Quinn Ewers

Dillon Gabriel

Sam Hartman

 

Tons of potential franchise QBs on this list. Unfortunately the Pats are going to get one of the guys at the top.

 

IMO,  Bo Nix will be the best of the bunch.  I also like Penix, he has a cannon.

 

I've been around here long enough, and been through so many offseason QB searches for the Bills, to know that if you list 10 QB prospects going into the draft then 1 maybe 2 of them will actually pan out.

 

All the Landry Jones, Tyler Wilson, Brock Osweiler, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, DeShone Kizer discussions we've had here over the years. I see way more of those guys on this list than anything else.

 

It's also blowing my mind that Bo Nix is getting ANY love, let alone 1st round grades. I watched that kid his whole career between Auburn and Oregon, and don't see why he's getting any mentions. He's this year's Brandon Wheedon.

 

No surprise but I'm not as high on this year's class as others are. I dont even think Caleb Williams, as the top of the class, is a slam dunk pick. I have him as less of a sure thing than Trevor Lawrence even (and I was not a Lawrence fan either). And I'm pretty sure the Bears will ultimately ruin him either way.

 

Out of all the playoff teams, I'd say the Steelers and maybe Bucs are most likely to pick a QB. I'd go with whoever gets drafted by a playoff team to have the most success.

 

My money is on 4 years from now, only 3 guys will still be in the league and maybe 1 of them still starting.

[FireChans]

On 1/31/2024 at 1:59 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I've been around here long enough, and been through so many offseason QB searches for the Bills, to know that if you list 10 QB prospects going into the draft then 1 maybe 2 of them will actually pan out.

 

All the Landry Jones, Tyler Wilson, Brock Osweiler, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, DeShone Kizer discussions we've had here over the years. I see way more of those guys on this list than anything else.

 

It's also blowing my mind that Bo Nix is getting ANY love, let alone 1st round grades. I watched that kid his whole career between Auburn and Oregon, and don't see why he's getting any mentions. He's this year's Brandon Wheedon.

 

No surprise but I'm not as high on this year's class as others are. I dont even think Caleb Williams, as the top of the class, is a slam dunk pick. I have him as less of a sure thing than Trevor Lawrence even (and I was not a Lawrence fan either). And I'm pretty sure the Bears will ultimately ruin him either way.

 

Out of all the playoff teams, I'd say the Steelers and maybe Bucs are most likely to pick a QB. I'd go with whoever gets drafted by a playoff team to have the most success.

 

My money is on 4 years from now, only 3 guys will still be in the league and maybe 1 of them still starting.

thank you. Think this class is super overrated. Caleb and or Maye may be good. That’s it 

[Low Positive]

People projecting college success into the NFL are in for a surprise. Take CJ Stroud for example. I watch OSU a lot. I saw pretty much every game of his senior year. Yeah, he was good. But there was nothing to tell me that he would be MVP-level in his rookie year and take a previously awful Texans team to the divisional round. And there was certainly nothing that would have suggested that he would be leaps and bounds better than Justin Fields. None of these guys are a Joe Burrow slam dunk but all of them will get overdrafted. And even Joe Burrow was a bit of a one-year wonder.