Has Josh Allen reached his ceiling?

[hondo in seattle]

Watching part of the Dallas game yesterday, I thought of this thread.

 

If Josh was in an offense like that - with superior pass pro and receivers running open all over the field - we'd see Josh at his ceiling.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

IFurther, why didn’t Josh get signaled out as having a top defense the last several years like it seems Mahomes does every time his name is brought up.  
 

 

 

Because the Bills defense craps the bed in the playoffs every year. Routinely playing far below their regular's season standard of play. Exact opposite of the Bengals defense performing better in the playoffs compared to their regular season performances. If the defenses performed at their regular season level in the postseason, they would have made a Super Bowl appearance in one of these last three seasons. 

 

With respect to Mahomes weapons, it could be that teams have now figured out how to defend KC without Hill. Having a season + now to gameplan for it. Even bigger than that though, I suspect Kelce has declined and lost a step or two. The dude is getting old now for NFL TE/WR standards. 

[HappyDays]

9 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I’m curious where people come to the conclusion that Mahomes had much better WR’s last year. The only guy not on this years roster is Smith-Schuster.

 

I'll be honest, the Chiefs got really lucky with JuJu Smith-Schuster. He is NOT a JAG. He started his career getting 900 and then 1400 receiving yards and looked like he would be a top #2 option for the rest of his career. But a series of injuries led to his next few years being spotty at best. That's why the Chiefs got him so cheap, not because of talent but because of health. And of course because they have a horseshoe up their ass they got one final healthy year out of him and he was a great #2 for them, before his knee fell apart after signing with the Pats. Our cheap free agent with a high injury risk was Jamison Crowder and unfortunately it just didn't work out.

 

No doubt JuJu is a MUCH better WR than Davis when healthy. If our WR2 had a 77.2% catch percentage last year, instead of 51.6%, it would have made a huge difference in our season.

 

You could make the argument that Mahomes had his best year last year, again if you contextualize it properly. Not as flashy as 2018 but more impressive from an individual standpoint. But even then he still had Kelce in his prime, a very good #2, and the 2nd best OL in football.

[FilthyBeast]

Even if you assume the answer is yes to this question about JA17 reaching his ceiling, he's shown he can be a franchise QB and top 10 NFL QB in most cases.

 

I think the concern is always going to lie with the turnovers (which seem to come in bunches) and something you have to live with so to speak going forward through the duration of his career in Buffalo.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

Watching part of the Dallas game yesterday, I thought of this thread.

 

If Josh was in an offense like that - with superior pass pro and receivers running open all over the field - we'd see Josh at his ceiling.  

The only way to really get Josh to his real potential ceiling is to get him an offensive HC who will fill the holes McDermott has neglected. 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Because the Bills defense craps the bed in the playoffs every year. Routinely playing far below their regular's season standard of play. Exact opposite of the Bengals defense performing better in the playoffs compared to their regular season performances. If the defenses performed at their regular season level in the postseason, they would have made a Super Bowl appearance in one of these last three seasons. 

 

With respect to Mahomes weapons, it could be that teams have now figured out how to defend KC without Hill. Having a season + now to gameplan for it. Even bigger than that though, I suspect Kelce has declined and lost a step or two. The dude is getting old now for NFL TE/WR standards. 

The Bills defense craps the bed in the playoffs except for all the games they didn’t that we just don’t talk about, right?

 

Didn’t they hold Mac Jones and NE to 3 points and force two TOs until the game was basically out of reach?

 

Didn’t they nearly shut out Lamar and the Ravens and outscore them by themselves, when the offense could barely muster points?

 

Didn't they make a massive stop to end the Colts game?

 

Man, talk about crapping the bed. 
 

Josh Allen was carried to his only AFCCG. He played well vs the Colts and horrible vs the Ravens and horrible in that game against the Chiefs. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by FireChans

[hondo in seattle]

53 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The only way to really get Josh to his real potential ceiling is to get him an offensive HC who will fill the holes McDermott has neglected. 

 

I get why you feel that way.  But Belichick and other defensive-minded HC's have run good offenses.  

 

McD needs to find the right OC.   And Beane needs to build a better OL and find us some speed on the outside.  

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Watching part of the Dallas game yesterday, I thought of this thread.

 

If Josh was in an offense like that - with superior pass pro and receivers running open all over the field - we'd see Josh at his ceiling.  

I feel like our line has played pretty well

 

This next draft is a receiver draft we need to take at least two

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

The Bills defense craps the bed in the playoffs except for all the games they didn’t that we just don’t talk about, right?

 

Didn’t they hold Mac Jones and NE to 3 points and force two TOs until the game was basically out of reach?

 

Didn’t they nearly shut out Lamar and the Ravens and outscore them by themselves, when the offense could barely muster points?

 

Didn't they make a massive stop to end the Colts game?

 

Man, talk about crapping the bed. 
 

Josh Allen was carried to his only AFCCG. He played well vs the Colts and horrible vs the Ravens and horrible in that game against the Chiefs. 

How has the defense been in all the games the Bills were eliminated in with Allen as QB?

 

That’s right atrocious in every one. The bills offense was bad in two out of the four I’ll give you that. But the defense has been somewhere between bad and downright  terrible in all four. 

 

 Massive stop to end the Colts game? That’s some rose colored glasses for sure. That may have been the one good defensive play they made all day in that game. Colts just ran out of time too didn’t they on the final drive? Also consider he offenses average starting field position in the first half of that game was like their own 8 yard line. Allen and the offense did everything they could in that game to keep the Bills in it and then pull out the win. 

 

They played well against the Pats in a game where the offense pitched a perfect game. Great, really needed them to step up in that one. 
 

The only game I can really credit to them over the offense is the Ravens game. That was also a weird game with 20+ mph winds. So both offenses were struggling. We don’t see Justin Tucker miss two 40 yard FG’s ever. We know the wind was a huge factor in how that game played out.
 

The Texans elimination game of course was a tale of two half’s for both sides of the ball.

 

So Texans and Bengals elimination games the offense was bad. Texans, Bengals and both Chiefs game the defense was somewhere between bad and terrible. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Man, talk about crapping the bed. 
 

Josh Allen was carried to his only AFCCG. He played well vs the Colts and horrible vs the Ravens and horrible in that game against the Chiefs. 

If we are grading Allen and the offenses AFC Championship game against the Chiefs as horrible (sorry just don’t see it anywhere near horrible) that’s fine as long as you grade the defense a magnitude or two worse. There is no question in my eyes the defense was quite a bit worse in that game. 

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

If we are grading Allen and the offenses AFC Championship game against the Chiefs as horrible (sorry just don’t see it anywhere near horrible) that’s fine as long as you grade the defense a magnitude or two worse. There is no question in my eyes the defense was quite a bit worse in that game. 

Josh had a passer rating of 80, and completed 58% of his passes in that game. The offense scored 9 points at the 6 minute mark in the 1st Q and had 15 points by 4 min left in the 4th Q. 5/14 on third down. That kind of offensive production got Kenny boy fired lol. Not gonna beat Mahomes in the playoffs with 15 points in the playoffs through 56 minutes in Arrowhead.

 

Josh Allen in 2020 and 2022 saw his passer rating drop 13 points and 16 points in postseason compared to the regular season.

Edited November 24, 2023 by FireChans

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

The Bills defense craps the bed in the playoffs except for all the games they didn’t that we just don’t talk about, right?

 

 

 

Let's also consider the following:

 

Bills vs. Chiefs in the Regular season (3 games since 2020):

 

Bills 24ppg  (throwing out the TD scored on the Hyde pick six in the 2021 regular season game)

 

Chiefs offense 22ppg 

 

Bills vs. Chiefs postseason (two games):

 

Bills offense 30ppg 

Chiefs offense 40ppg  

 

It's glaringly obvious that one unit is not coming close to performing at their regular season standard against the Chiefs. The Bills offense is scoring 6ppg more in the postseason than compared to regular season. The Bills defense is given up 18 ppg more in the post season than the regular season. 

Bengals defense shut the vaunted KC offense out for an entire half. That's in large part how the Bengals made the Super Bowl that year. 

[DuckyBoys]

No he hasn't reached his ceiling.  He has all the abilities/attributes to be the best qb the nfl has seen.  We'll see if the Bills devote the resources to get him there

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'll be honest, the Chiefs got really lucky with JuJu Smith-Schuster. He is NOT a JAG. He started his career getting 900 and then 1400 receiving yards and looked like he would be a top #2 option for the rest of his career. But a series of injuries led to his next few years being spotty at best. That's why the Chiefs got him so cheap, not because of talent but because of health. And of course because they have a horseshoe up their ass they got one final healthy year out of him and he was a great #2 for them, before his knee fell apart after signing with the Pats. Our cheap free agent with a high injury risk was Jamison Crowder and unfortunately it just didn't work out.

 

No doubt JuJu is a MUCH better WR than Davis when healthy. If our WR2 had a 77.2% catch percentage last year, instead of 51.6%, it would have made a huge difference in our season.

 

You could make the argument that Mahomes had his best year last year, again if you contextualize it properly. Not as flashy as 2018 but more impressive from an individual standpoint. But even then he still had Kelce in his prime, a very good #2, and the 2nd best OL in football.

I don’t know if he’s a JAG but I can’t get on board with the reason KC isn’t performing is him. That’s the only difference in WR core. Yet the overwhelming narrative is not that Mahomes is playing poorly, it’s that he doesn’t have any weapons. 

[Mikie2times]

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Josh had a passer rating of 80, and completed 58% of his passes in that game. The offense scored 9 points at the 6 minute mark in the 1st Q and had 15 points by 4 min left in the 4th Q. 5/14 on third down. That kind of offensive production got Kenny boy fired lol. Not gonna beat Mahomes in the playoffs with 15 points in the playoffs through 56 minutes in Arrowhead.

 

Josh Allen in 2020 and 2022 saw his passer rating drop 13 points and 16 points in postseason compared to the regular season.

Our offense did nothing against Houston, Baltimore, KC in the championship game and the Bengals. Then they turned it over enough against Miami that a preschool offense would have beat us if they had as much. But because we played out of our mind in 2021 the perception is somehow we are good in the postseason and defense has been our only issue.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Our offense did nothing against Houston, Baltimore, KC in the championship game and the Bengals. Then they turned it over enough against Miami that a preschool offense would have beat us if they had as much. But because we played out of our mind in 2021 the perception is somehow we are good in the postseason and defense has been our only issue.

 

Bills vs. Chiefs in the Regular season (3 games since 2020):

 

Bills 24ppg  (throwing out the TD scored on the Hyde pick six in the 2021 regular season game)

 

Chiefs offense 22ppg 

 

Bills vs. Chiefs postseason (two games):

 

Bills offense 30ppg 

Chiefs offense 40ppg  

 

I’m sorry but it is hard for me to pin these two postseason exits equally on the offense and defense. 
 

Again, the Bengals defense posted a second half shutout of the Chiefs offense to ultimately advance to the Super Bowl that year. The Bills defense played 18ppg  worse than their regular season play. 

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Let's also consider the following:

 

Bills vs. Chiefs in the Regular season (3 games since 2020):

 

Bills 24ppg  (throwing out the TD scored on the Hyde pick six in the 2021 regular season game)

 

Chiefs offense 22ppg 

 

Bills vs. Chiefs postseason (two games):

 

Bills offense 30ppg 

Chiefs offense 40ppg  

 

It's glaringly obvious that one unit is not coming close to performing at their regular season standard against the Chiefs. The Bills offense is scoring 6ppg more in the postseason than compared to regular season. The Bills defense is given up 18 ppg more in the post season than the regular season. 

Bengals defense shut the vaunted KC offense out for an entire half. That's in large part how the Bengals made the Super Bowl that year. 

Why are you taking the averages of those two games? 

Is it because Josh Allen is riding two games total as evidence of his “elite” play in the postseason?

 

Sure, the defense played bad against the Chiefs twice. Josh Allen has had plenty of bad playoff games. I can list them for ya.

13 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Our offense did nothing against Houston, Baltimore, KC in the championship game and the Bengals. Then they turned it over enough against Miami that a preschool offense would have beat us if they had as much. But because we played out of our mind in 2021 the perception is somehow we are good in the postseason and defense has been our only issue.

Correct. 
 

If anyone wants to tell me the defense let Josh and O down in 2021, I wholeheartedly agree. 
 

If anyone wants to say the reason we haven’t won 4 Super Bowls in 4 playoff appearances is solely on the defense and not Josh Allen, they are wrong.

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why are you taking the averages of those two games? 

Is it because Josh Allen is riding two games total as evidence of his “elite” play in the postseason?

 

Sure, the defense played bad against the Chiefs twice. Josh Allen has had plenty of bad playoff games. I can list them for ya.

Averages are the way these guys take the stink off.  They can bring in 2021 to disinfect the rest of it. As I said earlier. With Allen; whatever narrative you want. A stat exists for you to hang your argument on. Just don’t use your eyes.

 

We have posted under 20 points 3 times in the playoffs since 2019 in 3 separate years. It could easily be 4 times if it wasn’t for garbage TD’s vs KC in 2020. We also could have had 10 points two separate years if it wasn’t for a pick 6. The last team to win a Super Bowl and do it while scoring less than 20 points in the playoffs during that run was in 2018. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why are you taking the averages of those two games? 

Is it because Josh Allen is riding two games total as evidence of his “elite” play in the postseason?

 

 

I’m not hiding anything by posting averages. If you want to post the individual games feel free. They will show the same story. 
 

The point is they played really bad in the playoffs when we needed them to step up or at least play to their regular season level. Even just one out of the two games would have been nice. 
 

the defense was very good in all three regular season meetings. Again, my point overall in this argument in the defense failing miserably in the postseason compared to their regular season performance. That’s not debatable right?

 

even if we say the offense also did not live up to their regular season billing in these two postseason games, at the end of the day they matched or scored more points in all but one of the regular season games. 
 

got to lay majority of blame on the defense in both these games. 

5 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Averages are the way these guys take the stink off.  

go ahead post the 5 individual games. Do you think it will tell a different story?

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I’m not hiding anything by posting averages. If you want to post the individual games feel free. They will show the same story. 
 

The point is they played really bad in the playoffs when we needed them to step up or at least play to their regular season level. Even just one out of the two games would have been nice. 
 

the defense was very good in all three regular season meetings. Again, my point overall in this argument in the defense failing miserably in the postseason compared to their regular season performance. That’s not debatable right?

 

even if we say the offense also did not live up to their regular season billing in these two postseason games, at the end of the day they matched or scored more points in all but one of the regular season games. 
 

got to lay majority of blame on the defense in both these games. 

go ahead post the 5 individual games. Do you think it will tell a different story?

It would be nice of the offense to show up more than once against the Chiefs in the postseason. Do you disagree with this?

 

Do you disagree that there have been postseason games that the defense has showed up and the offense hasn’t?