NFL Playoff Simulator

[PBF81]

45 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Browns are exactly like the Jets.  Have been all year except for Watson's 2 good games.  They barely outscored the Stillers.  

 

The Browns have beaten both the Niners and Ravens, and two of their three losses are to teams that are currently 6-4, presently seeded, and they lost both those games by 4 points.  

 

That's a little different than the Jets.  

 

Not sure how they're doing it, but those are the facts.  

 

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

To break it down a bit

 

If we finish 6-0 down the stretch we have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs

5-1 puts us around 95%. It depends on who the loss is to. A loss to the Dolphins hurts a lot more than a loss to the Eagles or Cowboys

4-2 is close to a coin flip. It's going to vary a lot based on where we lose. 

3-3 has a few possibilities, but it's highly unlikely we make it. Maybe a 1% chance 

2-4 we're talking 1 in a million. Miami loses out and NYJ/NE don't make it to 8 wins. Bills win the division at 8-9

[DuckyBoys]

think most likely outcome is Steelers regress to where they should be and quit winning with smoke and mirrors and we pass them 

[RyanC883]

if we can't beat 1 of KC or Phil, then what's the point anyway.  It will be another divisional round bouncing.  Really need to beat both those teams.  Let's roll the rest of our schedule, be like the Steelers in 2005-2006 when they won out the regular and post season to win Ben's first SB.  

[Jrb1979]

10 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

 

Okay, what games do you guys have going differently? Because if the Bills only lose 2 of their last 6 games, I can't come up with very many scenarios where they don't make the playoffs.   Three of the teams they are competing with are playing backup QBs it's likely one or more of those teams drops 3 games or more.  NYT playoff simulator below.

 

 

I do.  I have Cleveland and Denver finishing at 10-7 with Buffalo. Buffalo ends up out. 

 

 

[bigK14094]

15 hours ago, TampaBillsJunkie said:

We have to beat either Philly or KC and win out to get in. Just picking favorites for the other teams leaves us on the outside looking in. 
This is losing both games to Phi and KC and winning out. We don't get in.

 

If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.

[TampaBillsJunkie]

We most likely don't get in at 10-7. We lose most of the tie breakers. 

Just now, bigK14094 said:

If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.

OK. Big dog. That bark is ferocious. 

[boyst]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

If the choice is to simply make the playoffs and get our a$$es kicked again in the early rounds or a higher pick, for all 7 rounds, might be better to get the pick.  Who cares about simply making the playoffs anymore.  We have Allen!  Anything less is underachievement with this offense.  

 

Making the playoffs is one thing.  That was a good goal in 2017, not today.  Hopefully the goals for us are greater.  

 

What we do know is that to date we have not beaten a team the likes of Philly, KC, or Dallas, two of which are on the road.  Miami will likely be more than the challenge it was at home and when we had two Takeaways that set-up 10 points for us, and the Chargers are likely underrated having lost four games to three current division leaders and Dallas, by 2, 3, and 3 in three of those games.  NE has better coaching and already beat us.  

 

Of course we have the talent to win any of those games.  On the coaching side, we're at a disadvantage in almost all of them.  

 

The ball is in McD's court.  As usual, what we want we have little control over.   

 

 

McDermott could be approaching Wayne fontes level if we make the playoffs. Id rather lose out but beat Dallas than make the playoffs and get smoked in the Superbowl 

[BBFL]

If this becomes accurate, Jacksonville better be absolutely on point or I believe Buffalo will destroy them and not crumble like the Chargers did these past playoffs…

[Jrb1979]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

McDermott could be approaching Wayne fontes level if we make the playoffs. Id rather lose out but beat Dallas than make the playoffs and get smoked in the Superbowl 

Why Dallas?  That rivalry is non existent now.  

[Mikie2times]

Pittsburgh is actually ranked 10th in weighted DVOA. So while they have had plenty of luck early in the year, that ranking will usually be enough to get you in as a legit playoff team. Stroud and Houston rank 12th in weighted DVOA. The INT monster finally got him last week. You have to figure at some point he will cool down. 

 

All three of these teams have cake schedules. But we don't need a ton of help. The normal NFL variance should be enough as long we take care of business. 

[Gunsgoodtime]

14 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

We are better than any of the 3 or 4 teams ahead of us for a Wild Card. I would take us over Pittsburgh, Cleveland or Houston especially. The dream scenario would be to somehow win the division. A home playoff matchup against the Texans would be a dream matchup in my opinion 

We notoriously play horrible against the Texans, no matter how good or bad they are.  Just like Jax, and NE of the old days

Edited November 22, 2023 by Gunsgoodtime

[Scott7975]

18 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

 

Okay, what games do you guys have going differently? Because if the Bills only lose 2 of their last 6 games, I can't come up with very many scenarios where they don't make the playoffs.   Three of the teams they are competing with are playing backup QBs it's likely one or more of those teams drops 3 games or more.  NYT playoff simulator below.

 

 

 

I really don't feel like typing out each game.  That would take me a lot of time and my hands don't work so well.  If I have to, to prove it then I will but I don't think I need to.  I use playoff machine, not the NYT one.  I've ran at least 3 scenarios the Bills don't get in at 10-7 and all 3 were realistic.

 

It really isn't that hard to see 3 other teams making 10 wins when 7 other teams can technically do so.  The Bills have pretty much no tie breakers against any of them accept for maybe a head to head against the raiders.  That head to head didn't even matter a week ago as tie breakers put the Raiders ahead of us due to conference record and multiway tie stuff.  Our conference record is what is really killing us in the 10 win scenario.

 

 

[Big Turk]

18 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

think most likely outcome is Steelers regress to where they should be and quit winning with smoke and mirrors and we pass them 

 

Well...maybe...sometimes that doesn't happen until the following season tho.  There are a lot of times when teams will win a lot of games like that one year and then lose most of the games like that the following year.  Why?  Honestly, mostly just luck.  Luck plays a much, much bigger role in sports than most want to give credit for or admit.  

 

I am sure someone somewhere is convinced the Eagles did something to make MVS drop a wide open game winning TD, Watson drop a wide open 4th and 25 conversion in Eagles territory that would have been a first down instead of ending the game.  Or maybe the Texans did something that caused Tyler Boyd to drop a wide open TD late in the Texans game that would have given them a 4 point lead.  

 

Broncos must have done something that made Gabe Davis drop a perfectly thrown pass in stride inside their 15 yard line that bounced off his hands and became an INT instead of first and goal...

 

No...that was just luck.  Sometimes you are the beneficiary of it and sometimes you aren't.

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Big Turk

[Scott7975]

18 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

 

Okay, what games do you guys have going differently? Because if the Bills only lose 2 of their last 6 games, I can't come up with very many scenarios where they don't make the playoffs.   Three of the teams they are competing with are playing backup QBs it's likely one or more of those teams drops 3 games or more.  NYT playoff simulator below.

 

 

 

I really don't feel like typing out each game.  That would take me a lot of time and my hands don't work so well.  If I have to, to prove it then I will but I don't think I need to.  I use playoff machine, not the NYT one.  I've ran at least 3 scenarios the Bills don't get in at 10-7 and all 3 were realistic.

 

It really isn't that hard to see 3 other teams making 10 wins when 7 other teams can technically do so.  The Bills have pretty much no tie breakers against any of them accept for maybe a head to head against the raiders.  That head to head didn't even matter a week ago as tie breakers put the Raiders ahead of us due to conference record and multiway tie stuff.  Our conference record is what is really killing us in the 10 win scenario.

22 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I think people have been pretty clear that 10-7 gives us around a 50% chance plus/minus, depending on who we beat and what simulator is used. (NYT factoring in new betting odds/injuries more favorable to Bills at 10-7)

What’s been pretty clear is that up to this point, we shouldn’t expect to get much help moving forward.  Last week had, I think, 1 out of 4 or 5 games go our way. 

 

 

Sure some have.  Others seem to think 10 wins and we are in easy peasy.  Some have even argued with me about it.

 

[WotAGuy]

If they don’t make the playoffs, it just shows you can’t ***** around with teams you’re supposed to beat.  

However, the playoffs weren’t the goal anyway - it was to win the Super Bowl. To do so, they will need to beat the good teams.  They still have the opportunity to do that. If they make it through this gauntlet, they will be playoff-tested and ready. 

[BBFL]

Chiefs could end up seeing Baltimore take that #1 seed but the Ravens do have a rough few outs left in Miami, 9ers and Chargers. With KC I believe they split their remaining 2 games with the Raiders, lose to the Chargers. Who knows that’s going to happen with Buffalo but they see a silver lining in playing a Burrow-less Cinci’ and whatever Patsies turn up. 
 

That leaves the Packers game… who have been playing very well. 

[frostbitmic]

I don't like the way this turned out for me ... Can we change who we play ?

 

Maybe a win over a Jests team with no offense hasn't raised my expectations. A win over the Eagles might.

 

This was a bad year to give the Jaguars one of our home games.

Edited November 22, 2023 by frostbitmic

[Heels20X6]

24 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

The Browns have beaten both the Niners and Ravens, and two of their three losses are to teams that are currently 6-4, presently seeded, and they lost both those games by 4 points.  

 

That's a little different than the Jets.  

 

Not sure how they're doing it, but those are the facts.  

 

 

They're doing it with Jim Schwartz' defense.  We know firsthand how good they are.

[Buffalo03]

4 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

We notoriously play horrible against the Texans, no matter how good or bad they are.  Just like Jax, and NE of the old days

Eh, we blew them out 2 years ago 40-0. I don't think we play nearly as bad against them as we do Jax. Every time we play the Jags, I cringe. Houston? Not so much