NFL Playoff Simulator

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

This thread is a lot like the differences and similarities between going to a mystic to see your future, or just shaking the 'Magic 8 Ball' until you get the answer you want. 🤔

😁

[Captain Hindsight]

11 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

The Browns beat Baltimore with Watson at QB.  The Browns are playing their 3rd string QB.  I don't see a lot of wins in their future.

The Browns D might be the best in the league. If Walker and DTR play reasonably well at QB then can win games

 

Its like the Anti Jets

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Process said:

This is not realistic at all. 

 

Also, Cleveland will be underdogs in 3+ games. Not sure how you determined "favorites."

 

There isn't anything unrealistic.  You just want to believe the Bills can skate in at 10-7.  Thats tough to do this year.  Cleveland has a stout defense and a good run game. They only need to win 3 games to get to 10-7.

[SCBills]

I don’t necessarily think the Texans schedule is easy for them.  They have the Jags, Broncos and Browns.  Titans are bad, but they play them twice in three weeks.  Jets beating the Fins on Friday would be massive, not only

for the division, but with Atlanta coming up for them after.. they may be on a two game streak with the QB change and back in the playoff race when Houston travels to NY. 
 

The Steelers Offense is so bad, and their Defense is so good, that they could win every game or lose every game left on their schedule.   Most likely they will be rock fights decided by a few points late.  
 

Broncos can help us out these next two weeks, but then they themselves are sitting at 7-5 with tie-breakers over us.  Might be time to just root for Cleveland, given they only have 3 losses, and concede a playoff spot to them as they have the Broncos and Texans left on their schedule that we may end up hoping they win. 
 

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by SCBills

[Process]

17 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

There isn't anything unrealistic.  You just want to believe the Bills can skate in at 10-7.  Thats tough to do this year.  Cleveland has a stout defense and a good run game. They only need to win 3 games to get to 10-7.

4 teams in the AFC finishing 13-4 or better, including the Texans and Browns, is realistic. Got it. 

[PBF81]

12 hours ago, boyst said:

I'm not against a top 15 pick, though.

 

If the choice is to simply make the playoffs and get our a$$es kicked again in the early rounds or a higher pick, for all 7 rounds, might be better to get the pick.  Who cares about simply making the playoffs anymore.  We have Allen!  Anything less is underachievement with this offense.  

 

Making the playoffs is one thing.  That was a good goal in 2017, not today.  Hopefully the goals for us are greater.  

 

What we do know is that to date we have not beaten a team the likes of Philly, KC, or Dallas, two of which are on the road.  Miami will likely be more than the challenge it was at home and when we had two Takeaways that set-up 10 points for us, and the Chargers are likely underrated having lost four games to three current division leaders and Dallas, by 2, 3, and 3 in three of those games.  NE has better coaching and already beat us.  

 

Of course we have the talent to win any of those games.  On the coaching side, we're at a disadvantage in almost all of them.  

 

The ball is in McD's court.  As usual, what we want we have little control over.   

 

 

[SCBills]

12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

If the choice is to simply make the playoffs and get our a$$es kicked again in the early rounds or a higher pick, for all 7 rounds, might be better to get the pick.  Who cares about simply making the playoffs anymore.  We have Allen!  Anything less is underachievement with this offense.  

 

Making the playoffs is one thing.  That was a good goal in 2017, not today.  Hopefully the goals for us are greater.  

 

What we do know is that to date we have not beaten a team the likes of Philly, KC, or Dallas, two of which are on the road.  Miami will likely be more than the challenge it was at home and when we had two Takeaways that set-up 10 points for us, and the Chargers are likely underrated having lost four games to three current division leaders and Dallas, by 2, 3, and 3 in three of those games.  NE has better coaching and already beat us.  

 

Of course we have the talent to win any of those games.  On the coaching side, we're at a disadvantage in almost all of them.  

 

The ball is in McD's court.  As usual, what we want we have little control over.   

 

 

I’m not at all in the mood to root for the type of help we’ll need to get in at 10-7, even though there are plausible paths.  
 

We need to go 6-1 down the stretch, and as you allude to.. if we can’t get 2/3 against Philly, KC, Dallas, then whats the point of making the playoffs over getting the type of pick that could get us our future WR1 in this Draft?

 

OTOH, Allen could catch fire like he did in ‘21. 

 

If the Bills take 2/3 against these next 3 opponents, then yea… we’re all going to be desperately hoping they can take care of business against the Chargers, Pats and Dolphins to make sure they get to 11-6 and likely a safe playoff spot. 
 

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by SCBills

[PBF81]

12 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Just win, baby!  If we can’t beat Philly or KC, we’re just pretenders anyway.

 

And that'll be a great test of who we actually are.  

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

I prefer the NY Times playoff simulator, which now includes in its formula information from betting markets. This effectively factors in things like injuries to key players and expectations of the performance of their backups (think Joe Burrow/Deshaun Watson).

Bottom line: to have a good (2 in 3 or better chance) at the playoffs, realistically the Bills need to:

- Win out in the division (beat the Pats in Week 17 and the Dolphins in Week 18). This gets easier if the Pats have given up/are playing for draft position, and particularly if the Dolphins are comfortable with playoff seeding and are resting starters.

- Beat the Chargers

- Win at least one of the three games in which we won't be favored (or will be considered a tossup): Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys.

 

Doable, but still a longshot - right now we sit at about a 25% chance of making the playoffs.

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

If the choice is to simply make the playoffs and get our a$$es kicked again in the early rounds or a higher pick, for all 7 rounds, might be better to get the pick.  Who cares about simply making the playoffs anymore.  We have Allen!  Anything less is underachievement with this offense.  

 

Making the playoffs is one thing.  That was a good goal in 2017, not today.  Hopefully the goals for us are greater.  

 

What we do know is that to date we have not beaten a team the likes of Philly, KC, or Dallas, two of which are on the road.  Miami will likely be more than the challenge it was at home and when we had two Takeaways that set-up 10 points for us, and the Chargers are likely underrated having lost four games to three current division leaders and Dallas, by 2, 3, and 3 in three of those games.  NE has better coaching and already beat us.  

 

Of course we have the talent to win any of those games.  On the coaching side, we're at a disadvantage in almost all of them.  

 

The ball is in McD's court.  As usual, what we want we have little control over.   

 

 

Ever since I watched the 2007 Giants go 10-6, claim a Wild Card spot, win three straight road playoff games, and then knock off the til-then undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl, I'll always feel the same way:

Just get into the "second season", and anything can happen. PARTICULARLY when you have a team that's fourth in the league in point differential with top ten scoring offense and defense and an elite QB.

Besides, who scares you in the AFC? Who would you say these Bills -- if they play as well as they did against Miami and Vegas and the second Jets game -- absolutely CAN'T beat? The Chiefs? The Ravens? The Browns? The Texans or Jags?

Just get into the dance and let the cards fall where they may.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I prefer the NY Times playoff simulator, which now includes in its formula information from betting markets. This effectively factors in things like injuries to key players and expectations of the performance of their backups (think Joe Burrow/Deshaun Watson).

Bottom line: to have a good (2 in 3 or better chance) at the playoffs, realistically the Bills need to:

- Win out in the division (beat the Pats in Week 17 and the Dolphins in Week 18). This gets easier if the Pats have given up/are playing for draft position, and particularly if the Dolphins are comfortable with playoff seeding and are resting starters.

- Beat the Chargers

- Win at least one of the three games in which we won't be favored (or will be considered a tossup): Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys.

 

Doable, but still a longshot - right now we sit at about a 25% chance of making the playoffs.

That seems like a catastrophic failure on our part if we can’t beat the Pats at home, Chargers on a neutral field, 1/3 of Philly, KC, Dallas and then a potential win and in game against Miami.  
 

Still feels gross to know that this only gets us a, what… 66%ish chance of making it?  
 

Just go 6-1 and prove you deserve to be the contender you were thought of and lock in a playoff spot without the shenanigans. 

[Jauronimo]

42 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

The Browns D might be the best in the league. If Walker and DTR play reasonably well at QB then can win games

 

Its like the Anti Jets

Browns are exactly like the Jets.  Have been all year except for Watson's 2 good games.  They barely outscored the Stillers.  

[The Frankish Reich]

2 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Browns are exactly like the Jets.  Have been all year except for Watson's 2 good games.  They barely outscored the Stillers.  

Except that we can expect any replacement level QB (like the 2 guys they have seem to be) to be significantly better than Zack Wilson. That's how awful he was.

[PBF81]

13 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Yea the more I look at their schedules there is almost no way the WC aren’t going to be

 

Cleveland 

Houston

Pittsburgh 

 

If we get to 10-7 I’m not sure how we have a tiebreaker with any of those 3.  None of them are going to be worse than 10-7.   

The path in is win the division.  
 

I'm not convinced the Dolphins don’t find a way to lose 3 more - 1 of them being to us.  

We can’t afford to lose more then 1 more game.  10-7 won’t get in.    

 

We could realistically be 10-6 or 9-7 going into the last game with Miami.  
 

I can see Miami losing to the Jets once, Dallas, Baltimore.   

 

You've got it right.  Anything else is excessive optimism.  

 

But first things first, gotta go take care of business @ Philly on Sunday.  We have the advantage of an extra day of preparation, not that that typically works in our favor, and they're coming back from out west on a Monday night.  

 

The outcome of that game will tell us a lot.  Win, and not because Philly implodes or anything, but win well, and it's a new season in a sense.  

 

Lose, and that'll pretty much end any talk of playoffs for us.  

 

 

 

 

13 minutes ago, Logic said:

Ever since I watched the 2007 Giants go 10-6, claim a Wild Card spot, win three straight road playoff games, and then knock off the til-then undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl, I'll always feel the same way:

Just get into the "second season", and anything can happen. PARTICULARLY when you have a team that's fourth in the league in point differential with top ten scoring offense and defense and an elite QB.

Besides, who scares you in the AFC? Who would you say these Bills -- if they play as well as they did against Miami and Vegas and the second Jets game -- absolutely CAN'T beat? The Chiefs? The Ravens? The Browns? The Texans or Jags?

Just get into the dance and let the cards fall where they may.

 

Yeah, of course.  And it's not as if it comes down to a forum fan vote as to what happens.  LOL  

 

But how disappointing would it be if we "make the playoffs" again, but lose to a team like Cleveland, Houston, or Pittsburgh in them.  

 

McD's disposition at this point likely depends upon how well he can do that, ... or conversely, not do that.  

 

And BTW, Coughlin is a better coach than McDimwit will ever be.  

 

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by PBF81

[Jrb1979]

8 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Browns are exactly like the Jets.  Have been all year except for Watson's 2 good games.  They barely outscored the Stillers.  

While true, they also play the Jets, Bears and Bengals. I can see them beating all 3 of those teams. 

 

Many here just assume since the Steelers and Browns have crappy QBs and crappy offenses they will just lost here on out. No one is taking into account their remaining schedules.  

 

Look out for Denver, ever since the Miami game their defense has come around and the offense is playing decent now. 

[Scott7975]

35 minutes ago, Process said:

4 teams in the AFC finishing 13-4 or better, including the Texans and Browns, is realistic. Got it. 

 

What's realistic is enough teams have the same or better record than us if we went 10-7 and keep us out of the playoffs.  There are many scenarios where that can happen.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Scott7975

[Jrb1979]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

What's realistic is enough teams have the same or better record than us if we went 10-7 and keep us out of the playoffs.  There are many scenarios where that can happen.

I ran the ESPN one 10 times now and the Bills get in once or twice at 10-7. They need a lot to go their way to make it at 10-7.  

[Scott7975]

17 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

I ran the ESPN one 10 times now and the Bills get in once or twice at 10-7. They need a lot to go their way to make it at 10-7.  

 

Exactly.  Not enough people understand that.  Bills dont even control their own destiny winning out.  That scenario is unlikely but there are at least two scenarios where that is the case.  People talking like losing 2 games is no problem.  

[Lost]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Exactly.  Not enough people understand that.  Bills dont even control their own destiny winning out.  That scenario is unlikely but there are at least two scenarios where that is the case.  People talking like losing 2 games is no problem.  

 

22 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

I ran the ESPN one 10 times now and the Bills get in once or twice at 10-7. They need a lot to go their way to make it at 10-7.  

 

Okay, what games do you guys have going differently? Because if the Bills only lose 2 of their last 6 games, I can't come up with very many scenarios where they don't make the playoffs.   Three of the teams they are competing with are playing backup QBs it's likely one or more of those teams drops 3 games or more.  NYT playoff simulator below.

 

 

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Exactly.  Not enough people understand that.  Bills dont even control their own destiny winning out.  That scenario is unlikely but there are at least two scenarios where that is the case.  People talking like losing 2 games is no problem.  

I think people have been pretty clear that 10-7 gives us around a 50% chance plus/minus, depending on who we beat and what simulator is used. (NYT factoring in new betting odds/injuries more favorable to Bills at 10-7)

What’s been pretty clear is that up to this point, we shouldn’t expect to get much help moving forward.  Last week had, I think, 1 out of 4 or 5 games go our way. 

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by SCBills