NFL Playoff Simulator

[buffblue]

On 11/22/2023 at 3:43 PM, DeltaDigital said:

I got in at 10-7 with us losing to KC and PHI... its not far fetched, that's with a handful of PITT and HOU wins. 

It is far fetched. Have you looked at their respective schedules? Where are 4 losses coming from for one of those teams?

 

Highly, highly unlikely. Neither the Steelers or Texans are good, but the Bills conference record is so abysmal that it is going to doom them.

 

Our only way in now is to finish 5-1

Edited November 26, 2023 by buffblue

[Goin Breakdown]

6 minutes ago, buffblue said:

It is far fetched. Have you looked at their respective schedules? Where are 4 losses coming from for one of those teams?

 

Highly, highly unlikely. Neither the Steelers or Texans are good, but the Bills conference record is so abysmal that it is going to doom them.

 

Our only way in now is to finish 5-1

You're most likely right. I'm to the point where I'm just trying to enjoy each game because it's buffalo and it's football, but not with any realistic hope for a championship. 

[Arkady Renko]

Back in the drought days we had all these scenarios about the Bills getting in and who had to lose.  Generally I recall teams ahead losing enough but the Bills not doing their part.  I think in the end 10-7 or better will get the Bills in but they have to get the wins.  

[Saxum]

On 11/22/2023 at 10:37 PM, zow2 said:

 

I don’t know.  Tom Brady says the league is full of mediocrity. He does not see excellence. and that remark includes the good teams as well. 

So i’ll trust Tom and think our mediocre team can get on a roll and beat other mediocre teams.

 

Maybe T*m Br*dy is trying to convince a team to sign him for a big contract since teams are mediocre.

Would not trust him as an analyst but would as an anal-yst.

[Braedenstearns]

Where do we sit now? With today’s game and our loses? A win out obviously is needed, but what is the realistic chance for the playoffs now? 10-15%?

[zow2]

Just win the final 5 and we’re in baby!  they can do it.

[Dr.Sack]

Bye week funny 

[Braedenstearns]

8 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Just win the final 5 and we’re in baby!  they can do it.

So it doesn’t matter who wins or loses if we just win out?

[Lionel Hutz]

Is there a top-5 draft pick simulator?

[gonzo1105]

Just now, Lionel Hutz said:

Is there a top-5 draft pick simulator?

I’m a big draft guy, if we’re not making the playoffs I’d prefer us to be as close to the top 15 as possible because there are a ton of great WR options and man to go with Diggs and Kincaid and a competent offensive mind will make the Bills very tough to beat 

[Hebert19]

I get us in ag 10-7 almost every time as long as the loss isn't afc.  

[beebe]

If every team that's favored wins next week, here's the AFC playoff picture: 

 

1. Chiefs 9-3

2. Jaguars 9-3

3. Dolphins 9-3

4. Ravens 9-3

5. Steelers 8-4

6. Browns 7-5

7. Colts 7-5

8. Texans 7-5

9. Broncos 6-6

10. Bills 6-6

11. Bengals 5-7

12. Raiders 5-7

 

Now, let's assume the Bills beat the Chiefs a week later coming off the bye, and once again, every favored team wins. 

 

Here's what the standings would look like through Week 14 with four weeks to play:

 

1. Jaguars 10-3

2. Dolphins 10-3

3. Ravens 10-3

4. Chiefs 9-4

5. Steelers 9-4

6. Colts 8-5

7. Texans 8-5

8. Browns 7-6

9. Bills 7-6

10. Broncos 6-7

 

The Bills (7-6) would have a 21% chance with four left to play (vs Cowboys, at Chargers, vs Patriots, at Dolphins).

 

Here's would be each team's remaining schedule with 4 to play:

 

Steelers (9-4): at Colts, vs Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens. 

*most likely record: 10-7

 

Colts (8-5): vs Steelers, at Falcons, vs Raiders, vs Texans

*most likely record: 10-7

 

Texans (8-5): at Titans, vs Browns, vs Titans, at Colts

*most likely record: 10-7

 

Browns (7-6): vs Bears, at Texans, vs Jets, at Bengals

*most likely record: 9-8

 

Broncos (6-7): at Lions, vs Patriots, vs Chargers, at Raiders

*most likely record: 8-9

 

In my opinion, if the Bills do anything but run the table, they're going to have a really tough time getting in at 10-7. The Steelers' schedule is so easy that 10-7 seems like a worst-case scenario and they currently look like the most likely 5-seed. The Colts and Texans - the current favorite to be the 6 or 7 seed, depending on heads-up result - both have clear paths to 10-7 records and one of them could even finish 11-6.

 

If the Bills dropped a game coming in to finish 10-7, they lose the tiebreaker to every team on this list.

 

The absolute best-case scenario, barring something totally unforeseen injury wise to the Steelers, Colts or Texans, is that the Bills MIGHT have a chance at a win-and-get-in game vs the Dolphins in the finale. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by beebe

[Scott7975]

I've been saying it since the Broncos game... this team is not getting in at 10-7.  They need to win out now and even then they might not make it.  The division is out of the question at this point.  Miami is going to run away with that.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Scott7975

[beebe]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

I've been saying it since the Broncos game... this team is not getting in at 10-7.  They need to win out now and even then they might not make it.  The division is out of the question at this point.  Miami is going to run away with that.

If the Bills run the table, they are 95% likely to get in. 

 

It would take literally almost every game to break wrong along the way (we're talking 10+ games). It's nearly impossible given that the Texans/Colts play each other, the Colts/Steelers play each other, and the Texans/Browns play each other, just in the final four weeks alone. 

[Scott7975]

Just now, beebe said:

If the Bills run the table, they are 95% likely to get in. 

 

It would take literally almost every game to break wrong along the way (we're talking 10+ games). It's nearly impossible given that the Texans/Colts play each other, the Colts/Steelers play each other, and the Texans/Browns play each other, just in the final four weeks alone. 

 

Yes if the Bills run the table they should get in.  There is still a chance they don't.  Getting in at 10-7 is very unlikely though.

[GustheDog33]

This team isn’t it. Sucks but down years happen. Josh Allen is a marvel. It’s a shame his talent and Diggs talent are being wasted by the current HC.

[Lost]

Bills aren't done yet.   

 

JA17 is back has shown he can compete with the best teams in the NFL so winning out doesn't seem as improbable anymore but they would have to do so despite McD and the NFL officiating.   If they win their last 5 and the Dolphins drop their week 16 and 17 games against Dallas and Baltimore, the Bills take the Division and 4th seed.  

 

If the Bills drop one more game, they certainly need more help now but it's still possible.  All eyes have to be on Pittsburgh and Cleveland.  They do have softer schedules but they are not great teams right now so anything can happen.  

 

Cleveland's last 6 games are against the Rams, Jacksonville, Chicago, Houston, Jets and Bengals.   Their backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson went out of the game with a concussion yesterday so who knows what kind of answer they have at QB going forward.   It's quite possible they lose 4 of their last 6 games in which case the Bills get in.  

 

Pittsburgh played slightly better this week but they're still one of the worst offenses in the league this year.   They do have a softer schedule to close things out as well but anything can happen when your O can't put up points.   Next 6 games for them are Cardinals, Patriots, Colts, Bengals, Seahawks, Ravens.   They would also need to lose 4 of those games for the Bills to get in.