Josh is effin back. He says so himself.

[Jay_Fixit]

3 hours ago, dayman said:

Thank God. I’m not being sarcastic when I say the rest of the season sort of depends on how Josh feels. So good.

And I’ll thank Josh. 

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Thrivefourfive said:

So Josh is is as topsy turvy as this board about Allen. Why does Mahomes look like every game he plays with joy of high school junior QB.. arms swinging, head up, feet moving. And Josh has blue days, and then out of his mind days. He dug this hole, interested to watch how he meets the challenge. One week is a good start.

So are you just not paying attention to Mahomes? He's not having a great year either. Hell despite this midseason collapse of the Bills offense somehow Josh doesn't seem to be eliminated from the MVP race because somehow nobody else has runaway with it.

[JGMcD2]

2 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Leading the league in turnovers isn't something we can just brush aside though.

 

Nobody was praising Jameis Winston for being #1 in passing yards & #2 in TDs when he had 33 TDs to 30 INTs. Thankfully Josh isn't to that point in a single season, but it's still bad enough to where people dismiss the TDs due to the turnovers.

I mean that’s fine, dismiss the TDs. Here we sit and Josh has played in 11 games, Mahomes and Hurts are in the midst of their 10th. They’re the front runners for MVP. 
 

Josh Allen 29 TD and 15 TO in 11 games which is good for 1.93 TD for every 1 turnover.

 

Jalen Hurts 23 TD and 12 TO in 9.75 games which is good for 1.91 TD for every 1 turnover. 

 

Patrick Mahomes 19 TD and 11 TO in 9.75 games which is good for 1.71 TD for every 1 turnover. 
 

Josh left the field with a lead and less than 2 minutes on the clock in two different games this year and didn’t see the ball again. They lost those games. That’s the difference in the narrative and it’s not even his fault. 

Edited November 21, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Leading the league in turnovers isn't something we can just brush aside though.

 

Nobody was praising Jameis Winston for being #1 in passing yards & #2 in TDs when he had 33 TDs to 30 INTs. Thankfully Josh isn't to that point in a single season, but it's still bad enough to where people dismiss the TDs due to the turnovers.

 

Then, at the point Josh is at...those people are wrong to dismiss the TDs due to the turnovers.

 

I did a thing some time ago, where I pulled about 18 years of NFL QB data and looked at a number of stats for correlation to winning.  I did this because I ultimately wanted to look at success of QB drafted in different rounds, so before I could do that, I had to define success; obviously a QB can play well and still lose if the defense is awful.  So I started out looking at winning teams and how their QB played.  Trying to keep this out of TL;DR I found that completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, and YPA (taken all 3 together) were correlated with winning, and the correlation got better if I put in a floor ~220 ypg passing (couldn't pin down an exact number). 

 

But here's the thing - the values that correlated were pretty mild.  Something like >60% completions, TD/INT greater than 1.5, and YPA >6.5.  Which I think most here would say "not very good".  The point was, the QB had to meet ALL THREE of those criteria (plus the passing yard floor), not just one.  If he did, that was good enough for the team to win with a reasonable defense.

 

Where am I going with this?  The point is that right now, Josh is rocking a TD/INT ratio of 1.83.  Which is, in fact, good enough to win.

 

Are there QB with better?  Yes.  Whose teams are having successful years?  Yes, some - Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Tua.

 

Are there QB of successful teams with similar?  Also yes - as a matter of fact, Josh is currently sandwiched between Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence for TD/INT ratio.

 

Obviously, we all want the turnovers to decrease.  But the TDs do matter, and the ratio of points the QB helps generate passing (TDs) to INTs is important - actually, as far as correlation to winning, more important than looking at TDs alone or INTs alone.

[Buffalo03]

I did see a more confident and energetic Josh again. I think deep down, he knew this move had to be made to

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

So Josh is is as topsy turvy as this board about Allen. Why does Mahomes look like every game he plays with joy of high school junior QB.. arms swinging, head up, feet moving. And Josh has blue days, and then out of his mind days. He dug this hole, interested to watch how he meets the challenge. One week is a good start.

 

I just watched the Eagles at Chiefs MNF game.  Mahomes did not look as though he were having a lot of fun out there tonight.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Then, at the point Josh is at...those people are wrong to dismiss the TDs due to the turnovers.

 

I did a thing some time ago, where I pulled about 18 years of NFL QB data and looked at a number of stats for correlation to winning.  I did this because I ultimately wanted to look at success of QB drafted in different rounds, so before I could do that, I had to define success; obviously a QB can play well and still lose if the defense is awful.  So I started out looking at winning teams and how their QB played.  Trying to keep this out of TL;DR I found that completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, and YPA (taken all 3 together) were correlated with winning, and the correlation got better if I put in a floor ~220 ypg passing (couldn't pin down an exact number). 

 

But here's the thing - the values that correlated were pretty mild.  Something like >60% completions, TD/INT greater than 1.5, and YPA >6.5.  Which I think most here would say "not very good".  The point was, the QB had to meet ALL THREE of those criteria (plus the passing yard floor), not just one.  If he did, that was good enough for the team to win with a reasonable defense.

 

Where am I going with this?  The point is that right now, Josh is rocking a TD/INT ratio of 1.83.  Which is, in fact, good enough to win.

 

Are there QB with better?  Yes.  Whose teams are having successful years?  Yes, some - Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Tua.

 

Are there QB of successful teams with similar?  Also yes - as a matter of fact, Josh is currently sandwiched between Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence for TD/INT ratio.

 

Obviously, we all want the turnovers to decrease.  But the TDs do matter, and the ratio of points the QB helps generate passing (TDs) to INTs is important - actually, as far as correlation to winning, more important than looking at TDs alone or INTs alone.

I believe ANY/A is still the QB stat most correlated w winning

[Mark Vader]

6 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Amazing what a haircut does to a guy

If he shaves, he could become invincible.

[billsfan89]

Success is a hell of a drug so to speak. But Josh looked the part against a tough defense that has always given him fits in recent years. If the Bills hope to do anything this season they are gonna need Josh to play like himself.

[Einstein]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Funny, the Shakir pass is one of those wow plays that even a fraction of a hair off was an INT where people would be killing him...

 

So true.

 

Another thing is I just wish he would step into those throws more often. When he steps into a throw, there is zero chance a CB is getting to it. It’s those flat footed throws that are close.

[clearwater cadet]

 

[Just in Atlanta]

“‘High positive affect is a state of high energy, full concentration, and pleasurable engagement, whereas low positive affect is characterized by sadness and lethargy”’

 

(Watson et al., 1988, p. 1065).Jun 12, 2021

 

Hopefully this means no more sadness and lethargy.

[C.Biscuit97]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Love it, he needs that confidence and swagger back!  

 

Funny, the Shakir pass is one of those wow plays that even a fraction of a hair off was an INT where people would be killing him...but when Allen is on and confident, he hits those so much more often than he doesn't.  

 

The real question is how will Allen, Brady, and the offense respond when there is a hiccup and things aren't going great?  Can they keep that swagger, adjust, and come right back like they used to or will they get in a rut again like they did during that 6 week slump?

 

Personally, I think this is the start of a full turn around for this offense.  

Yup. I’m not talking about just Josh when I say this. And this is my “I’m becoming old (but still quite handsome)” mindset. But his generation are front runners. Talk so much trash when they are winning and how great they are. And then second something bad happens, they pout like children.

 

when the Bills get a lead, they have a party. However the second they are losing, they look like their dog just died. They need to fix that and especially Josh since he is their leader. 
 

one thing I noticed last night with Hurts was he was the same guy when they losing and when they took the lead. 

7 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Success is a hell of a drug so to speak. But Josh looked the part against a tough defense that has always given him fits in recent years. If the Bills hope to do anything this season they are gonna need Josh to play like himself.

Agreed but it is a million times easier with Zack Wilson. If you settle for 3 fgs against the eagles, they can come back. 

[MarlinTheMagician]

I will say this -- there is not a team in the league about which I feel (as I often did in drought years), "oh crap, there is no way we can beat this team."  We can beat anybody if the right team shows up.  Eagles game so big - we pull an upset there we go to KC with insane Mojo.

[PBF81]

14 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Orlovsky broke down that play and he definitely knew what he was doing, It's a tight window, Josh is just one of the few people with arm power and confidence to put it in there.

 

Over that punk Gardner too!

 

 

[John from Riverside]

12 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

So Josh is is as topsy turvy as this board about Allen. Why does Mahomes look like every game he plays with joy of high school junior QB.. arms swinging, head up, feet moving. And Josh has blue days, and then out of his mind days. He dug this hole, interested to watch how he meets the challenge. One week is a good start.

Letis Patrick Mahomes lose a string of games and see what his demeanor is

[fan_in_tx]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

"I feel like Dorsey won't be back"

He's the only qb in the NFL who can make that exact throw. A 32 yard thread the needle laser.  That play is why MikeRob calls it a "hand cannon". 

Add this to the highlight reel with Diggs in Detroit last year, the 75 yd to Foster (jags),  75 yd to Davis (kc) and 98 against Pitt.. Plays only Allen can make/ 

[msw2112]

13 hours ago, Prospector said:

“I Feel like I want my baby back, baby back baby back…. Chilis baby back ribs!”

 

they just cut off his mic to hear it all

Don't look now - I saw an article recently stating that "iconic jingle is coming back" and guess which one?  Maybe Josh can score another endorsement deal.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yup. I’m not talking about just Josh when I say this. And this is my “I’m becoming old (but still quite handsome)” mindset. But his generation are front runners. Talk so much trash when they are winning and how great they are. And then second something bad happens, they pout like children.

 

when the Bills get a lead, they have a party. However the second they are losing, they look like their dog just died. They need to fix that and especially Josh since he is their leader. 
 

one thing I noticed last night with Hurts was he was the same guy when they losing and when they took the lead.

 

I'm sorry, but I just LOL when I read stuff like this.

 

We're watching on television.  We see little glimpses of the QB on the sideline and maybe between plays, carefully chosen by the network to create a narrative and drama.

 

And from that you conclude Hurts is the "same guy when losing and when they took the lead" and the Bills all look like their dog just died?  Seriously?

[Sestak4ever]

15 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

We will most certainly find out, and the rest of the AFC is going to sit up and take notice if we win at least 2 of the next 3 games. Right now I'm happy about the win, but in a "we'll see" mode once teams adjust to our new Brady-led offense

Stating the obvious, but these next three games are critical. I sure wish our defense was fully healthy. Go Bills!!!🏈🍻