The Oversimplified Explanation of What's Wrong with the Bills and Why There's Still Hope

[T master]

2 minutes ago, GerstAusGosheim said:

Leslie's D was 13-3 last year with significant injuries.

 

Micah Hyde - Out 15 games

Tre White - Out 11 games

Von Miller - Out 8 Games

Christian Benford - Out 7 games

Damar Hamlin - Out 5 games

Jordan Phillips - Out 4 games

Gregory Rousseau - Out 3 Games

Tremain Edmunds - Out 2 Games

Ed Oliver - Out 2 Games

Daquan Jones - Out 1 Game (Bengals Playoff!)

Boogie Basham - Out 1 Game

Dane Jackson - Out 1 Game

 

You forgot PO he was out a few last year too wasn't he ??

[hondo in seattle]

2 minutes ago, GerstAusGosheim said:

Leslie's D was 13-3 last year with significant injuries.

 

Micah Hyde - Out 15 games

Tre White - Out 11 games

Von Miller - Out 8 Games

Christian Benford - Out 7 games

Damar Hamlin - Out 5 games

Jordan Phillips - Out 4 games

Gregory Rousseau - Out 3 Games

Tremain Edmunds - Out 2 Games

Ed Oliver - Out 2 Games

Daquan Jones - Out 1 Game (Bengals Playoff!)

Boogie Basham - Out 1 Game

Dane Jackson - Out 1 Game

McD has underperformed this year.   But looking at that list - he over performed last season.

[PBF81]

25 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Sure but we got the second most total yard against the Jets in the past two season (and that was with us taking the foot off the gas in the 4th quarter).  So is the score inflated yes, but we did move the ball on that defense.  

 

Yes, that's the high-level narrative. 

 

Keep in mind however, we struggled in the Red Zone, going 1-of-4, and we hardly shone on 3rd-downs going 5-of-13, 38.5%, which is tremendously average.  

 

20% of our total yardage was one play.  

 

Other than that 81-yard pass play for a TD by Shakir, we had three drives over 23 net yards, only one resulted in a TD.  

 

There's stuff to work on.   

 

 

[PBF81]

35 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Uh..no it hasn't.  Not even close...whoever has played the NFC South has had the easiest schedule.

 

Uh ... yeah.  These guys are usually pretty tight.  According to them we've easily had the easiest schedule.  

 

Bills:  -4.7 

Atlanta:  -1.4 

NO:  - 1.2 

Carolina:  1.1  

Tampa:  2.0  

 

Are you seriously arguing this?  

 

We've played the Jets twice, Pats, Giants, Skins, Denver, Tampa, and the Raiders.  Not one of those teams has a winning record.  Denver's .500.  

 

We also played Jax and lost, Cincy, also .500, and lost.  The only team that we've beaten with a winning record is divisional rival Miami.  Their schedule has also been weak and their wins are similar, they also haven't beaten a team with a winning record.  

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by PBF81

[djp14150]

17 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Simple brains like mine need simple explanations.   Here's what's been ailing the Bills...

*  Defense.  Our defense isn't playing at its typically dominant level because of the injuries.  We're missing too many good players.

*  Offense.  Dorsey and Josh have both been suboptimal.   Josh's struggles largely stem from Josh but Dorsey contributed to, and amplified, his problems.

 

But there is hope...

 

The D still still has injuries but manages to play okay.  Whatever we may think about McD overall, he's good at defense.  Over the years that he's been here, I think you could say about our defense that 'the sum is greater than the whole of its parts.'  McD fields defensive units that play smart and play together.  

 

The O may have already solved its problem.  It's been plagued by predictable patterns of play-calling and an over-reliance on Josh's heroics & the Josh-Diggs connection.  But we won big yesterday without Superman throws (or runs) from Josh, not a ton of air yards, and little contribution from Diggs.  Brady might be the solution we've been looking for.   He seems to call a better game than Dorsey and he makes Josh better.  

 

We may need to win 5 of the remaining 6 tough games.  The NY Times simulator gives us only a 26% chance of making the playoffs.   But if the D can remain solid and hold opponents to 25 or less and the revitalized offense can average 30 points per game over the final stretch, which we know it can do, we have a chance.  

 

 

 

the D has had a bunch of injuries.  You could say theirD has 15 regular players in a 4-2-5 defense.  Half have bern injured.  The D has played well but they are a bend dont break D that is not a total shut down D. This adds vulnerability in defending 1 score games late in the game.

 

Thr offense got predictable in play calling and they haven’t seemed to adjust play calling for their opponent.

 

3 loses came down to the final minutes. The other 2 loses mistakes hurt them in those games with red zone turnovers.

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yes, that's the high-level narrative. 

 

Keep in mind however, we struggled in the Red Zone, going 1-of-4, and we hardly shone on 3rd-downs going 5-of-13, 38.5%, which is tremendously average.  

 

20% of our total yardage was one play.  

 

Other than that 81-yard pass play for a TD by Shakir, we had three drives over 23 net yards, only one resulted in a TD.  

 

There's stuff to work on.   

 

 

Are you complaining about high level narratives in a thread titled "oversimplification"  sheesh.

 

Agree 1/4 in RZ is not great and is a dip from what we typically do.  If you wanna keep an eye on it sure.  Would also say we scored on 6/9 of drives prior to the game being out of hand (shakir TD).  That is a great number for a jets d only allows scores on 34% of its drives.  

 

38.5% is league average against a top 5 defense (4/9 after Shakir TD which is good).  Why is that a challenge or struggle or whatever misspelling word you were trying to say?

 

Take away the run by Shakir and we still did better than average against the Jets and the whole 4th quarter we didnt try.  In fact you rely a lot on stats after the Shakir TD to make your points (RZ being the exception).  Nothing from the offense after the Shakir TD should be used for concern or confidence cause its not very representative.

 

Its not all sunshine and rainbows for sure, but that performance from Sunday beats the performance from either the Chiefs or Eagles last night.  Now we need to see it consistently which has for sure been a problem.  

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Are you complaining about high level narratives in a thread titled "oversimplification"  sheesh.

 

LOL, looks like someone struck a nerve. 

 

No.   Does it seem as if that's what I was doing?  Come on now.   

 

 

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree 1/4 in RZ is not great and is a dip from what we typically do.  If you wanna keep an eye on it sure.  Would also say we scored on 6/9 of drives prior to the game being out of hand (shakir TD).  That is a great number for a jets d only allows scores on 34% of its drives.  

 

38.5% is league average against a top 5 defense (4/9 after Shakir TD which is good).  Why is that a challenge or struggle or whatever misspelling word you were trying to say?

 

Take away the run by Shakir and we still did better than average against the Jets and the whole 4th quarter we didnt try.  In fact you rely a lot on stats after the Shakir TD to make your points (RZ being the exception).  Nothing from the offense after the Shakir TD should be used for concern or confidence cause its not very representative.

 

Actually that's not true.  Take away Shakir's big play and we put up slightly below-average what their opponents have in terms of passing yards, and only more than the Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, and Giants.  Conspicuously two of the teams we beat and one that we lost to.  Without that play, we'd have been right smack in the average of what they've allowed against them, and only 4 more yards than Denver, and otherwise, again, only ahead of the Raiders, Chargers, and Giants.  

 

Our rushing production ranked ahead of only two other teams that they've played, which is also therefore below-average.  

 

The Jets also tied for the most TOs they've had in a game this season with 4.  

 

So no, without Shakir's play, we did not do better than average, we were average at best compared to other teams that they've played, and ahead of only teams that shouldn't be anywhere close to where we are offensively.  

 

Dismiss the rest as you like.  

 

 

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Its not all sunshine and rainbows for sure, but that performance from Sunday beats the performance from either the Chiefs or Eagles last night.  Now we need to see it consistently which has for sure been a problem.  

 

Well, yeah, we need to see it consistently, and all that I was attempting to do was to reinforce that and give pause for this notion that we're retracked as many have suggested. 

 

At the end of the day, we were one huge STs play, one huge Defensive play, and one single huge Offensive play away from posting a below-average number of points (15), yards, and passing yards against the Jets.  We were already only ahead of two other teams on the season in rushing yards.  

 

As to the KC/Philly game, did you actually look at the stats from that game?   If so, did you happen to notice any key differences, or similarities given those differences?  

 

I'll help you out for purposes of avoiding any confusion.  

 

The Chiefs, with a mere 4 minute time-of-possession advantage, put up only 57 fewer yards vs. the Eagles than we did.  They put up more 1st-Downs, 23 to our 22.  

Now, imagine if you will, if it's not stretching yourself too far here, whether or not you think that with the same 14 (or so) minute time-of-possession advantage that we had, they have been able to add to their already ahead of our 1st-Down tally, much less add an additional 57 total yards?  

 

Not too many people would consider that an unlikelihood.  

 

So no, it wasn't all sunshine and rainbows, ... as many here seem to be suggesting it was, and that some sort of new team is back.  

 

Once again, relying on big-plays and TOs is no basis for any methodology for success.  At the beginning of the season it was also pointed out that we overly relied on Takeaways for our success, but that this was not a good basis for sustained success.  

 

To wit, when we have 2+ Takaways, we're 4-1.  

When we don't, we're 2-4.  

 

If that pattern holds, first, what are the odds that we'll generate 2+ TOs from teams like the Eagles, Cowboys, Fins, Chargers, or Chiefs?  Given that, which of the two molds do we fit into more for those games if we do not?   

 

The Chargers have only committed 2 TOs once this season, never more.  The Cowboys have had two games with 2 or more, once with 2, once with 4.  The Eagles and Chiefs less so, same with the Fins, probably our most difficult games otherwise.  

 

The only two teams that we've beaten without a reliance upon TOs, are the Giants and Bucs, both of which we barely beat.  

 

This Jets game was another one of those like the Skins and Raiders games.  Ironically, we all thought the same things about our season then that many are saying again now.  

 

If there was a point here, it's that it is not wise to do that in this case.  Part of good strategic analysis is to separate first and foremost, the things that are sustainable elements to some sort of methodology or set of tactics, from those which are not.  Poor QBs throwing INTs, unanticipated FRs, and 80+yard big plays for TDs simply are not a sustainable element to build a core methodology.  

 

They're nice when they happen, but are also a lot less likely to occur against the types of opponents forthcoming on our schedule than against teams like the Raiders, Skins, Giants, and Jets and their crappy QBs.  

 

Hope that helps.  

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by PBF81

[Paup 1995MVP]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Nice summarization!  

 

We need to keep in mind as well, that 17 of our 32 points were either set-up by the D or that one single big play to Shakir.  Those are things that cannot be counted on from game to game.  

 

Our first FG was set-up by STs handing the ball to our offense at the Jets' 21.  We netted 3 yards before settling for a FG there.   The ball was handed to the O already well within FG range.  

 

Our first TD was set-up by Douglas' INT at the Jets' 23.  

 

Then of course that 81-yard TD by Shakir.  

 

Otherwise, 15 points, one TD and 3 FGs.  Hardly prolific.  

 

Again, the point, those first three are not things that can be planned in, particularly against good teams.  This was a Zach Wilson-led offense, or should we say lead offense given that it's weighted down by him, quite possibly in his last planned NFL start as a #1 QB ever.  

 

If/when we show up like that against @Philly and @KC it'll begin to look more like it may stick.  

 

 

If we play w the same energy and intensity against Philly and KC that we played w against the Jets, we will have a good chance to win both games. Also need to play smart-don’t take stupid penalties and get good in game coaching.  
 

The Chiefs offense and Mahomes look stale.  Kelce looks to have finally hit the wall.  They are beatable.  The Eagles are physical.  But their D is not scary good.   And our O line has been good running the ball this year.  Key on Hurts and Swift.  Benford and Douglas can cover Brown and Smith. They are not uncoverable in the slightest.  And Goedert is injured.
 

Let’s go Buffalo!!

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

23 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

The defense is actually better in terms of yards(314 to 317) and points per game(17.3 to 17.9) than they were last year. 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, 10th in yards(under 12 yards per game away from being top 5).  39 sacks, 2nd in the NFL.

 

They have been far better than most people realize compared to the rest of the NFL and even compared to last year at times. That's with the major injuries, with more players constantly going down in game, etc.

 

Bills D is tied for 4th in points per play at 0.286 with the Steelers(Ravens, SF, KC are the top 3), which is slightly better than they were last year at 0.287.

 

And to further drive this point home...the Bills give up fewer yards per game than the Jets do.

 

This defense is still very good...without the major injuries they would be elite.

 

Would these stats somehow take into account the fact that the defense was often in bad field position to due to a turnover by the offense?  Much tougher job for the defense when they are coming on the field on their own 35 yard line because of an int.

 

It is funny how here the first 4 weeks many were praising the defense and McD.  Then they have all the injuries, struggling and now it's McD's fault. Yes injuries happen to all teams, but when 3 of your probably 5 best players are out, plus throw in Poyer and Oliver for a game each, not surprising they struggle.

[Freak-O]

23 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Yeah 

 

Numbers…

 

they’ve played the 30th scoring offense twice and  31, 32, 26, 23, 20, 17, 15, 13, 1.

 

3 gms vs above average offenses. Those are the numbers. 

Refresh my memory if you will… There is a 1 there in the list. What happened against the 1?

[transient]

On 11/20/2023 at 3:52 PM, Big Turk said:

 

The defense is actually better in terms of yards(314 to 317) and points per game(17.3 to 17.9) than they were last year. 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, 10th in yards(under 12 yards per game away from being top 5).  39 sacks, 2nd in the NFL.

 

They have been far better than most people realize compared to the rest of the NFL and even compared to last year at times. That's with the major injuries, with more players constantly going down in game, etc.

 

Bills D is tied for 4th in points per play at 0.286 with the Steelers(Ravens, SF, KC are the top 3), which is slightly better than they were last year at 0.287.

 

And to further drive this point home...the Bills give up fewer yards per game than the Jets do.

 

This defense is still very good...without the major injuries they would be elite.

On the way to racking up those stats this D gave up game winning drives to Mac Jones and Russell Wilson, and tried really hard to do the same with Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield. The stats are what they are, same as seasons past, but the eye test suggests this defense will break at big moments with the game on the line, same as seasons past. 

[90sBills]

There’s still hope because every team in the league is legitimately beatable this season. Everyone, including the Bills, is out there week in week out looking for a solution to play better and get to the next week with a W. 

[Big Blitz]

If we beat the Chiefs that would be 3 home losses for them.  
 

When the hell was the last time that happened?

[finn]

Am I the only one who doesn't think Allen has been struggling this season? He's playing as well as any other quarterback in the league, who all have their ups and downs. I think we all expect Allen to play like he did in the playoffs a few years ago, and that may not be realistic, at least not for a whole season. I have high hopes for Brady bringing out the best in him on a more consistent basis--and getting his teammates to help him. 

[billsfan89]

Outside of the Pats game the defense has not been a problem. If the offense can get going this team should win games. Got to win 2 out of the next 3 which is a tall order but if they can do that and take care of the games they are supposed to win (Pats and Chargers) what would get the Bills to 10 wins going into that Fins game which should be in solid contention for wild card and allow that game to be for the division.

8 minutes ago, finn said:

Am I the only one who doesn't think Allen has been struggling this season? He's playing as well as any other quarterback in the league, who all have their ups and downs. I think we all expect Allen to play like he did in the playoffs a few years ago, and that may not be realistic, at least not for a whole season. I have high hopes for Brady bringing out the best in him on a more consistent basis--and getting his teammates to help him. 

Allen has had some struggles but I think the play calling has been the primary issue all the individual components have been working in my opinion.

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

If we play w the same energy and intensity against Philly and KC that we played w against the Jets, we will have a good chance to win both games. Also need to play smart-don’t take stupid penalties and get good in game coaching.  
 

The Chiefs offense and Mahomes look stale.  Kelce looks to have finally hit the wall.  They are beatable.  The Eagles are physical.  But their D is not scary good.   And our O line has been good running the ball this year.  Key on Hurts and Swift.  Benford and Douglas can cover Brown and Smith. They are not uncoverable in the slightest.  And Goedert is injured.
 

Let’s go Buffalo!!

 

KC's WRs leave a lot to be desired.  It's inevitable the Kelce hits the wall anytime.  The thing is that their D's really improved.  

 

We have to prove that we can beat teams of that caliber.  If we do it, great!  If not, I guess the consolation is that we'll be picking in the middle of rounds then.  

 

GO BILLS!!!  

 

 

[ganesh]

On 11/21/2023 at 5:07 AM, hondo in seattle said:

Simple brains like mine need simple explanations.   Here's what's been ailing the Bills...

*  Defense.  Our defense isn't playing at its typically dominant level because of the injuries.  We're missing too many good players.

*  Offense.  Dorsey and Josh have both been suboptimal.   Josh's struggles largely stem from Josh but Dorsey contributed to, and amplified, his problems.

 

But there is hope...

 

The D still still has injuries but manages to play okay.  Whatever we may think about McD overall, he's good at defense.  Over the years that he's been here, I think you could say about our defense that 'the sum is greater than the whole of its parts.'  McD fields defensive units that play smart and play together.  

 

The O may have already solved its problem.  It's been plagued by predictable patterns of play-calling and an over-reliance on Josh's heroics & the Josh-Diggs connection.  But we won big yesterday without Superman throws (or runs) from Josh, not a ton of air yards, and little contribution from Diggs.  Brady might be the solution we've been looking for.   He seems to call a better game than Dorsey and he makes Josh better.  

 

We may need to win 5 of the remaining 6 tough games.  The NY Times simulator gives us only a 26% chance of making the playoffs.   But if the D can remain solid and hold opponents to 25 or less and the revitalized offense can average 30 points per game over the final stretch, which we know it can do, we have a chance.  

 

 

We are not assigning any blame to the coaching staff. 

 

Our defense failed to stop the final drive (deep in the opponents own side) that won games for Broncos and the Patriots. 

Our offense failed to score points consistently during this stretch before it was too late and it was too late. 

Our ST sucked giving the Punt-Return for TD against the Jets, and key field positions against the Broncos, allowing them to score TD when they could barely move their offense.   If the Bills had taken care of business aginst the Jets, Broncos and the Patriots they will be leading the AFC today 

[hondo in seattle]

9 hours ago, ganesh said:

We are not assigning any blame to the coaching staff. 

 

Our defense failed to stop the final drive (deep in the opponents own side) that won games for Broncos and the Patriots. 

Our offense failed to score points consistently during this stretch before it was too late and it was too late. 

Our ST sucked giving the Punt-Return for TD against the Jets, and key field positions against the Broncos, allowing them to score TD when they could barely move their offense.   If the Bills had taken care of business aginst the Jets, Broncos and the Patriots they will be leading the AFC today 

 

 

 Sure, the coaching staff deserves credit/blame.  But I did say, "oversimplification."  

 

We would have overcome a lot of mistakes and bad decisions if (1) the D was healthy, and (2) we had a better OC since the beginning of the season.   Those two stand out to me as the biggest, most fundamental problems.  

 

I mentioned this in another thread...  Back in 2016, during that stretch (games 3 to 15 as I recall) when ALynn was the OC and Tyrod was the QB, we averaged 27 points per game.  We averaged 26 points per game (with a downward trend) this season with Dorsey and Josh.  It's shameful that a TT-led offense was more productive than a Josh-led offense. 

 

With all our losses being decided by one score, we could have conceivably been undefeated with an elite OC.  I doubt if Brady will emerge as an elite coordinator but I am hoping he proves himself to be better than Dorsey.  

[Paup 1995MVP]

12 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

KC's WRs leave a lot to be desired.  It's inevitable the Kelce hits the wall anytime.  The thing is that their D's really improved.  

 

We have to prove that we can beat teams of that caliber.  If we do it, great!  If not, I guess the consolation is that we'll be picking in the middle of rounds then.  

 

GO BILLS!!!  

 

 

Agree about KC's receivers.  MVS and Watson have stone hands.  And the rest, who cares.  Kelce will catch some passes.  But he seems to be running in mud.  Their defense is good.  But Bolton is injured.  And Frank Clark left.  I think our O line has improved considerably this season.  Both in the run game and pass protection.  (the one run play I would like to see put to bed is handing off to Cook from the shotgun when he run laterally 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage looking for a crease to cut through or to get around the outside. That play constantly gets blown up for a big loss every time.)

 

Both games will be tough matches.  We will see how good a team we have in the next few weeks.

[Cash]

19 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Actually that's not true.  Take away Shakir's big play and we put up slightly below-average what their opponents have in terms of passing yards, and only more than the Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, and Giants.  Conspicuously two of the teams we beat and one that we lost to.  Without that play, we'd have been right smack in the average of what they've allowed against them, and only 4 more yards than Denver, and otherwise, again, only ahead of the Raiders, Chargers, and Giants. 

 

This is poor methodology.  (Leaving aside for the moment that you can't actually "take away Shakir's big play", because that's not how statistical analysis works.)  For an apples to apples comparison, you would need to also take away the biggest offensive play from each other Jets opponent.  Since Shakir's TD was the longest passing TD in the league this year, that exercise would presumably still drop us relative to everyone else.  But intentionally handicapping 1 team's results while leaving all other team's untouched is disingenuous.  Yeah, if you remove the positives from the analysis, what's left will be neutral or negative.  No duh, but it doesn't tell us anything.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Cash