The Oversimplified Explanation of What's Wrong with the Bills and Why There's Still Hope

[hondo in seattle]

Simple brains like mine need simple explanations.   Here's what's been ailing the Bills...

*  Defense.  Our defense isn't playing at its typically dominant level because of the injuries.  We're missing too many good players.

*  Offense.  Dorsey and Josh have both been suboptimal.   Josh's struggles largely stem from Josh but Dorsey contributed to, and amplified, his problems.

 

But there is hope...

 

The D still still has injuries but manages to play okay.  Whatever we may think about McD overall, he's good at defense.  Over the years that he's been here, I think you could say about our defense that 'the sum is greater than the whole of its parts.'  McD fields defensive units that play smart and play together.  

 

The O may have already solved its problem.  It's been plagued by predictable patterns of play-calling and an over-reliance on Josh's heroics & the Josh-Diggs connection.  But we won big yesterday without Superman throws (or runs) from Josh, not a ton of air yards, and little contribution from Diggs.  Brady might be the solution we've been looking for.   He seems to call a better game than Dorsey and he makes Josh better.  

 

We may need to win 5 of the remaining 6 tough games.  The NY Times simulator gives us only a 26% chance of making the playoffs.   But if the D can remain solid and hold opponents to 25 or less and the revitalized offense can average 30 points per game over the final stretch, which we know it can do, we have a chance.  

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

With all due respect no one on this board could accurately describe predictable play calling patterns.  We don't know how much better or worse Brady will be than Dorsey.  It was one game where Josh didn't throw any dumb passes and the defense gave the offense numerous short fields to work with.  We all love Josh but many of his INTs are purely his fault.  The Shakir TD was everything we love about Allen.  Maybe two other guys in the league can make that throw.  Everyone else and that is a pick by Sauce.  If Josh is a fraction of a second late or just a little less velocity and it is a pick.  We just have to embrace Allen for what he is.  He is our Favre.  

[Big Turk]

19 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Simple brains like mine need simple explanations.   Here's what's been ailing the Bills...

*  Defense.  Our defense isn't playing at its typically dominant level because of the injuries.  We're missing too many good players.

*  Offense.  Dorsey and Josh have both been suboptimal.   Josh's struggles largely stem from Josh but Dorsey contributed to, and amplified, his problems.

 

But there is hope...

 

The D still still has injuries but manages to play okay.  Whatever we may think about McD overall, he's good at defense.  Over the years that he's been here, I think you could say about our defense that 'the sum is greater than the whole of its parts.'  McD fields defensive units that play smart and play together.  

 

The O may have already solved its problem.  It's been plagued by predictable patterns of play-calling and an over-reliance on Josh's heroics & the Josh-Diggs connection.  But we won big yesterday without Superman throws (or runs) from Josh, not a ton of air yards, and little contribution from Diggs.  Brady might be the solution we've been looking for.   He seems to call a better game than Dorsey and he makes Josh better.  

 

We may need to win 5 of the remaining 6 tough games.  The NY Times simulator gives us only a 26% chance of making the playoffs.   But if the D can remain solid and hold opponents to 25 or less and the revitalized offense can average 30 points per game over the final stretch, which we know it can do, we have a chance.  

 

 

 

The defense is actually better in terms of yards(314 to 317) and points per game(17.3 to 17.9) than they were last year. 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, 10th in yards(under 12 yards per game away from being top 5).  39 sacks, 2nd in the NFL.

 

They have been far better than most people realize compared to the rest of the NFL and even compared to last year at times. That's with the major injuries, with more players constantly going down in game, etc.

 

Bills D is tied for 4th in points per play at 0.286 with the Steelers(Ravens, SF, KC are the top 3), which is slightly better than they were last year at 0.287.

 

And to further drive this point home...the Bills give up fewer yards per game than the Jets do.

 

This defense is still very good...without the major injuries they would be elite.

Edited November 20, 2023 by Big Turk

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The defense is actually better in terms of yards(314 to 317) and points per game(17.3 to 17.9) than they were last year. 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, 10th in yards(under 12 yards per game away from being top 5).  39 sacks, 2nd in the NFL.

 

They have been far better than most people realize compared to the rest of the NFL and even compared to last year at times. That's with the major injuries, with more players constantly going down in game, etc.

 

Bills D is tied for 4th in points per play at 0.286 with the Steelers(Ravens, SF, KC are the top 3), which is slightly better than they were last year at 0.287.

 

And to further drive this point home...the Bills give up fewer yards per game than the Jets do.

 

This defense is still very good...without the major injuries they would be elite.

The defense has played 1 good offense. And one mediocre one (Jax) and a bunch of terrible ones. 

[Big Turk]

11 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

The defense has played 1 good offense. And one mediocre one (Jax) and a bunch of terrible ones. 

 

Every team in the NFL has some version of this you could say about them on offense or defense.  At the end of the day, the numbers are the numbers.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Every team in the NFL has some version of this you could say about them on offense or defense.  At the end of the day, the numbers are the numbers.

Yeah 

 

Numbers…

 

they’ve played the 30th scoring offense twice and  31, 32, 26, 23, 20, 17, 15, 13, 1.

 

3 gms vs above average offenses. Those are the numbers. 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Yeah 

 

Numbers…

 

they’ve played the 30th scoring offense twice and  31, 32, 26, 23, 20, 17, 15, 13, 1.

 

3 gms vs above average offenses. Those are the numbers. 

 

Yup...and they essentially shut out the Commanders who put up 31 points against the Eagles in both games they played...what's your point?  Held the Fins to 20 after they put up 70 against the Broncos...you can play that game from both sides all day.

[hondo in seattle]

On 11/20/2023 at 3:49 PM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

With all due respect no one on this board could accurately describe predictable play calling patterns.  We don't know how much better or worse Brady will be than Dorsey.  It was one game where Josh didn't throw any dumb passes and the defense gave the offense numerous short fields to work with.  We all love Josh but many of his INTs are purely his fault.  The Shakir TD was everything we love about Allen.  Maybe two other guys in the league can make that throw.  Everyone else and that is a pick by Sauce.  If Josh is a fraction of a second late or just a little less velocity and it is a pick.  We just have to embrace Allen for what he is.  He is our Favre.  

 

It doesn't matter if anyone on this board can describe or predict Dorsey's play calling.   Professionals could.  We've heard it from opponents after games - that they knew what we were doing.  Dan Orlovsky, after 12 years in the NFL, watched game tape and found Dorsey's play-calling "wildly predictable."   Whether you or I could predict a call is beside the point.  Our opponents could.  

 

It's just one game from Brady but it is a good start.  He got the RBs more involved.  He called plays that didn't rely on heroics from Josh.  He managed to put up 32 points against a defense that had stymied Dorsey three consecutive times.  And he did it without much contribution from Diggs.  Josh played smarter, safer ball and I'm prone to give the credit to Brady for coaching that. 

 

Yesterday, Josh only completed one hard throw as I recall (the Shakir TD).  The rest were mostly high-percentage throws called by Brady.  It's also worth noting how many YAC we got yesterday.  Dorsey depended on air yards.  

 

Yes, Josh's picks are his fault.  But it's not hard to imagine Dorsey is involved as well by (1) calling plays that take too long to develop forcing Josh to scramble and throw off balance, (2) calling predictable plays that don't create much separation, (3) not consistently calling easy throws - like the two TD throws to the backs yesterday, (4) not coaching Josh harder about taking what's given, (5) not coaching Josh harder about getting the ball out on schedule, (6) not calling more/better running plays so defense won't comfortably sit back in a two-high zone.  

 

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

30 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Yup...and they essentially shut out the Commanders who put up 31 points against the Eagles in both games they played...what's your point?  Held the Fins to 20 after they put up 70 against the Broncos...you can play that game from both sides all day.

My point is the defense has performed statistically well on the season against bad offenses and are in for a wake up call, facing good offenses. 

[Mister Defense]

I agree with all that you say except the idea that Allen's problems were largely the result of him.

 

He was operating in a fundamentally flawed offense run by an incompetent OC who does not even know the basics of good NFL offensive game planning, formations, in game changes, and overall game prep.

 

Josh was doing whatever he could to overcome one big deficit after another, the result of the gross OC incompetence, as Dorsey created huge obstacles for the offense, rather than facilitating it.

 

Overnight the Bills became contenders again, but I just hope it was not too late.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Mister Defense

[PBF81]

16 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

With all due respect no one on this board could accurately describe predictable play calling patterns.  We don't know how much better or worse Brady will be than Dorsey.  It was one game where Josh didn't throw any dumb passes and the defense gave the offense numerous short fields to work with.  We all love Josh but many of his INTs are purely his fault.  The Shakir TD was everything we love about Allen.  Maybe two other guys in the league can make that throw.  Everyone else and that is a pick by Sauce.  If Josh is a fraction of a second late or just a little less velocity and it is a pick.  We just have to embrace Allen for what he is.  He is our Favre.  

 

Nice summarization!  

 

We need to keep in mind as well, that 17 of our 32 points were either set-up by the D or that one single big play to Shakir.  Those are things that cannot be counted on from game to game.  

 

Our first FG was set-up by STs handing the ball to our offense at the Jets' 21.  We netted 3 yards before settling for a FG there.   The ball was handed to the O already well within FG range.  

 

Our first TD was set-up by Douglas' INT at the Jets' 23.  

 

Then of course that 81-yard TD by Shakir.  

 

Otherwise, 15 points, one TD and 3 FGs.  Hardly prolific.  

 

Again, the point, those first three are not things that can be planned in, particularly against good teams.  This was a Zach Wilson-led offense, or should we say lead offense given that it's weighted down by him, quite possibly in his last planned NFL start as a #1 QB ever.  

 

If/when we show up like that against @Philly and @KC it'll begin to look more like it may stick.  

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

15 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

My point is the defense has performed statistically well on the season against bad offenses and are in for a wake up call, facing good offenses. 

is this true?  We gave up 29 to the Pats who are a bad offense and 24 to the broncos who aint great either.  On the flip side we held Miami in check as well as Cinci and Jax (not killer offenses i know).  I dont think its as simple as we do well against bad offenses.  

[PBF81]

16 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

The defense has played 1 good offense. And one mediocre one (Jax) and a bunch of terrible ones. 

 

That's a very good point!  

 

Our schedule to date has by far and away been the easiest of any team in the league.  

 

Now it changes to one of the toughest of any team in the league, quite possibly the toughest over the last 6 games.  

 

It'll be a great barometer to see what we have, on both sides.  

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Nice summarization!  

 

We need to keep in mind as well, that 17 of our 32 points were either set-up by the D or that one single big play to Shakir.  Those are things that cannot be counted on from game to game.  

 

Our first FG was set-up by STs handing the ball to our offense at the Jets' 21.  We netted 3 yards before settling for a FG there.   The ball was handed to the O already well within FG range.  

 

Our first TD was set-up by Douglas' INT at the Jets' 23.  

 

Then of course that 81-yard TD by Shakir.  

 

Otherwise, 15 points, one TD and 3 FGs.  Hardly prolific.  

 

Again, the point, those first three are not things that can be planned in, particularly against good teams.  This was a Zach Wilson-led offense, or should we say lead offense given that it's weighted down by him, quite possibly in his last planned NFL start as a #1 QB ever.  

 

If/when we show up like that against @Philly and @KC it'll begin to look more like it may stick.  

 

 

Sure but we got the second most total yard against the Jets in the past two season (and that was with us taking the foot off the gas in the 4th quarter).  So is the score inflated yes, but we did move the ball on that defense.  

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

That's a very good point!  

 

Our schedule to date has by far and away been the easiest of any team in the league.  

 

Now it changes to one of the toughest of any team in the league, quite possibly the toughest over the last 6 games.  

 

It'll be a great barometer to see what we have, on both sides.  

 

 

 

Uh..no it hasn't.  Not even close...whoever has played the NFC South has had the easiest schedule.

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Nice summarization!  

 

We need to keep in mind as well, that 17 of our 32 points were either set-up by the D or that one single big play to Shakir.  Those are things that cannot be counted on from game to game.  

 

Our first FG was set-up by STs handing the ball to our offense at the Jets' 21.  We netted 3 yards before settling for a FG there.   The ball was handed to the O already well within FG range.  

 

Our first TD was set-up by Douglas' INT at the Jets' 23.  

 

Then of course that 81-yard TD by Shakir.  

 

Otherwise, 15 points, one TD and 3 FGs.  Hardly prolific.  

 

Again, the point, those first three are not things that can be planned in, particularly against good teams.  This was a Zach Wilson-led offense, or should we say lead offense given that it's weighted down by him, quite possibly in his last planned NFL start as a #1 QB ever.  

 

If/when we show up like that against @Philly and @KC it'll begin to look more like it may stick.  

 

 

 

Yes, because football is played like that.  You could argue this for every team in the NFL in some way form or fashion.  They put up the most offensive yards and points against that team this year. The offense took a little while to get in rhythm but they were moving the ball well on that defense.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Big Turk

[Beast]

17 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

With all due respect no one on this board could accurately describe predictable play calling patterns.  We don't know how much better or worse Brady will be than Dorsey.  It was one game where Josh didn't throw any dumb passes and the defense gave the offense numerous short fields to work with.  We all love Josh but many of his INTs are purely his fault.  The Shakir TD was everything we love about Allen.  Maybe two other guys in the league can make that throw.  Everyone else and that is a pick by Sauce.  If Josh is a fraction of a second late or just a little less velocity and it is a pick.  We just have to embrace Allen for what he is.  He is our Favre.  

I disagree and I’ll point to two plays in an attempt to prove my point.

 

Both were TD’s one to Cook and the other to Ty Johnson. Obviously this appears to be low hanging fruit because they were TD’s.

 

Looking at both plays, even if they were only 10-15 yard gains, the Bills actually schemed players to be WIDE OPEN.

 

I’m being serious when I say this….I can’t remember the last time I’ve witnessed that with this offense.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Beast

[juno999]

It's only one game but what I did like about the play calling is: 

- Brady got the RBs involved in the passing game.  Those are pretty easy throws for Allen. 

- Allen had a few runs which helped keep the defense off balance. 

- Allen did a good job of protecting the ball.  He had the pick right before half but no harm.

[BuffaloBillyG]

I'll simply it even more.

 

Defense wasn't creating turnovers. Offense was turning the ball over. Those both changed vs the Jets. If that stays the same, we can beat any team in the league.

[GerstAusGosheim]

17 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

*  Defense.  Our defense isn't playing at its typically dominant level because of the injuries.  We're missing too many good players.

 

Leslie's D was 13-3 last year with significant injuries.

 

Micah Hyde - Out 15 games

Tre White - Out 11 games

Von Miller - Out 8 Games

Christian Benford - Out 7 games

Damar Hamlin - Out 5 games

Jordan Phillips - Out 4 games

Gregory Rousseau - Out 3 Games

Tremain Edmunds - Out 2 Games

Ed Oliver - Out 2 Games

Daquan Jones - Out 1 Game (Bengals Playoff!)

Boogie Basham - Out 1 Game

Dane Jackson - Out 1 Game

[PBF81]

17 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Yeah 

 

Numbers…

 

they’ve played the 30th scoring offense twice and  31, 32, 26, 23, 20, 17, 15, 13, 1.

 

3 gms vs above average offenses. Those are the numbers. 

 

The defensive rankings of our opponents has been similar.  

 

Going by Scoring Defense Ranking:  9th, 11th, 12th (twice), 13th, 21st, 23rd, 25th, 28th, 30th, and 32nd. 

 

Now we go into the gauntlet.  

 

Offense:  1st, 2nd, 5th, 8th, 14th, and 31st (Pats, who've already masterfully beaten us by putting up their biggest point-total of the season)  

 

Defense:  3rd, 5th, 16th, 23rd, 24th, 25th (Pats)  

 

In balance O/D ranking pairings we have, in scheduled order: 

 

@Philly: 5th/16th 

@KC:  14th/3rd  

Dallas:  2nd/5th 

@Chargers:  8th/24th  

NE:  31st/25th  

@Miami:  1st/23rd  

 

And either way, even if you don't think it was the easiest, we have a grand opportunity to show our stuff against a much tougher schedule forthcoming.  

 

No one's going to confuse the Jets, Pats, Giants, Skins, Bucs, Broncos, or Raiders with the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, or even Chargers.  

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by PBF81