Beane's draft record - with several players emerging, has your opinion changed at all?

[Toyo321]

It is really hard to do well with draft picks or FA picks, when you you have no money to sign or bring in premium talent when our Cap situation is so bad and that does not even take into consideration how bad 2024 is going to be.  Next year is going to be a house cleaning of dead weigh and cap casualties. 

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

It is really hard to do well with draft picks or FA picks, when you you have no money to sign or bring in premium talent when our Cap situation is so bad and that does not even take into consideration how bad 2024 is going to be.  Next year is going to be a house cleaning of dead weigh and cap casualties. 

Your cap room has little to nothing to do with your draft selections. Free agency for sure, but not the draft. 

[Toyo321]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Your cap room has little to nothing to do with your draft selections. Free agency for sure, but not the draft. 

You still have to sign your draft pic's, and now you are signing them with less money in the bank to ensure a long term contract for players that you need to keep on the team for them to contribute.  Signing and losing them after their rookie deal expires is a problem this team is going to have because the Cap situation is no joke now.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 11/20/2023 at 6:12 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Forget out team record this year (there are a lot of factors in that)...but one silver lining has been we have seen a lot of young players begin to emerge into good to even great players for us this year.  

 

So I am curious if the emergence of these young players, many of which were written off or not thought much of prior to the start of the season, has impacted people's view of his draft history.  Personally, I already thought Beane had done well in the draft...but he obviously still had his fair share of critics around here. 

 

Some of those players include:  AJE, Bernard, Benford, Shakir, Cook, Kincaid, O'Cyrus, Dorian, and even Oliver to an extent.  

• AJE - (2nd round)A long time whipping boy around here despite having a mini breakout last year with 6.5 sacks in a rotational role.  He has become a very good player for us this season already matching his sack total last year and on pace for 10 sacks, plus he has an INT and defensive TD.  
• Bernard - (3rd round)Labeled a bust by many the moment he was drafted and considered a major liability by most heading into this season.  But he has been one of the defenses best players for this team on the season.
• Benford - (6th round) Seen as a guy only playing because Elam wasn't ready to winning the 3 way battle and playing like a starting corner.
• Shakir - (5th round) Disregarded by many just because he fell to the 5th round, falsely labeled by many of not having good hands mostly because of one tough catch in the playoff last year.  Now he is becoming a staple in the offense with his snap count rising from 10% week 1 to now 80% nearly this week.  Has the best catch rate on the team.  
• Cook - (2nd round) Considered a change of pace 3rd down back with little value as a featured runner.  Currently 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards despite Dorsey's struggle with consistently involving him and looking like a long term important player for this offense right now.
• Kincaid - (1st round) He did have a lot of hype, but was too early to know, but he is proving that hype is legit and now the 2nd best receiving weapon on the team.  
• O'Cyrus - (2nd round) Instant starter and while he has had some rookie struggles, he has really made an impact on the OL for the most part. 
• Oliver - (1st round) Most were against his extension, now he not only is proving he was worth it, he has become one of the elite DT's in the NFL this year under McD's defense.  

 

So has this impacted your view of his draft history seeing these guys really start to emerge and breakout this year?  

 

NOTE:  I think AJE, Cook, and O'Cyrus play is getting to the point that the old "Beane can't draft in the 2nd round" criticism is headed for retirement.  

 

For the record, my vote was:

B Grade

A Grade

Better

I agree with some of the premise of your message the only problem I have is not really with Beane it’s with McD a lot of the players on this list didn’t really get a chance to play until injuries started piling up. I believe McD is lost when it comes to evaluating talent on this team and wonder what other players on the bench can also play better than current starters? I would like to see Isabella take Harty and Sherfield snaps just to begin with and I would love to see Bates play instead of Morse just to name a few. 

[SoCal Deek]

21 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

You still have to sign your draft pic's, and now you are signing them with less money in the bank to ensure a long term contract for players that you need to keep on the team for them to contribute.  Signing and losing them after their rookie deal expires is a problem this team is going to have because the Cap situation is no joke now.

Every team reserves enough money to sign their draft picks. If Beane hasn’t done that he’s beyond incompetent. 

[somnus00]

On 11/20/2023 at 3:20 PM, Mikie2times said:

What's even crazier to me...

 

Imagine if we said in the offseason that AJE would break out. Bernard would perform as well as Edmunds or better. Benford would turn into a solid starter. Shakir would develop as a slot. Cook would be top 3 in the NFL in rushing. Kincaid would be one of our leading receivers. O'Cyrus would perform above the level of a rookie. Ed would play at an All Pro level.  

 

How on earth would that not equal Super Bowl level trajectory for the team? Yet, here we are. Next few weeks could get really interesting if we can build off the Jets game. 

This is the time of season that you want your team to get hot for a superbowl run. But I'm afraid the Bills may have dug themselves in too deep a hole.

 

As long as the Bills lose one less than Miami going into the last week, they have a shot at the division.

[JohnNord]

On 11/20/2023 at 6:38 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Bonus Points:  Devin and Moss showing they can be good RB's when featured on other teams too I think furthers Beane's draft track record too.  Daboll and Dorsey just failed to get them more involved here.  

you can’t give a GM credit if a player does well outside of your organization after you let them walk.  That’s just flat out silly.  

[Sierra Foothills]

Beane was hired in May of 2017 AFTER the 2017 draft. Here are his significant transactions by year:

• Traded away Sammy Watkins and a 6th round pick for EJ Gaines and a 2nd round pick
• Traded away Ronald Darby for Jordan Matthews and a 3rd round pick
• Traded away Marcell Dareus for a 5th round pick
• Traded for Kelvin Benjamin (3rd and 7th round picks)

2018:

• Signed free agents Vontae Davis, Star Lotulelei, Trent Murphy, AJ McCarron, Matt Barkley, Isaiah McKenzie, Russell Bodine
• Traded Cordy Glenn, #21 and #158 for #12 and #187
• Traded Tyrod Taylor for Cleveland's 3rd rounder (#165)
• Drafted Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson, Siran Neal, Wyatt Teller, Ray Ray McCloud, Austin Proehl

2019:

• Signed free agents Spencer Long, Cole Beasley, John Brown, Frank Gore, Mitch Morse, Jon Feliciano, Ty Nsekhe, Tyler Kroft, Kevin Johnson, Andre Roberts, LaAdrian Waddle, EJ Gaines, Quinton Spain, TJ Yeldon, Lee Smith
• Traded Russell Bodine for a 6th rounder
• Drafted Ed Oliver, Cody Ford, Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox, Vosean Joseph, Jaquan Johnson, Darryl Johnson, Tommy Sweeney

2020:

• Signed free agents Mario Addison, Vernon Butler, AJ Klein, Quinton Jefferson, Jon Feliciano, Taiwan Jones and Darryl Williams
• Traded a 1st, 5th, 6th, and 2020 4th rounder for Stefon Diggs and Minnesota's 7th (Dane Jackson).
• Traded Wyatt Teller for Cleveland's 5th and 6th rounders.
• Drafted AJ Epenesa, Zack Moss, Gabriel Davis, Jake Fromm, Tyler Bass, Dane Jackson

2021:

• Signed free agents Emmanuel Sanders, Mitchell Trubisky, Matt Breida
• Traded Zay Jones to Las Vegas for a 5th rounder
• Traded Marshall Newhouse to Carolina for a 7th rounder
• Drafted Gregory Rousseau, Boogie Basham, Spencer Brown, Tommy Doyle, Marquez Stevenson, Damar Hamlin, Rachad Wildgoose, Jack Anderson

2022:

• Released Darryl Williams
• Signed free agents Rodger Saffold, DaQuan Jones, Von Miller, Tim Settle, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Larson, Matt Barkley, Jamison Crowder, Duke Johnson, David Quessenberry, Greg Van Roten, Sam Martin
• Traded for Case Keenum
• Drafted Kaiir Elam, James Cook, Terrell Bernard, Kahlil Shakir, Matt Araiza, Christian Benford, Luke Tenuta, Baylon Spector

2023:

• Signed free agents Kyle Allen, Deonte Harty, Connor McGovern, Trent Sherfield, Damien Harris, David Edwards, Taylor Rapp, Latavius Murray, Poona Ford, Leonard Floyd, Ty Johnson, Germain Ifedi, Josh Norman, Leonard Fournette, Linval Joseph
• Traded for Rasul Douglas
• Drafted Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Dorian Williams, Justin Shorter, Nick Broeker, Alex Austin

 

If I missed anything please let me know and I'll add it.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[Nihilarian]

10 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

In a phrase….lets hope so! I admire your optimism. It’s just odd that this is the same staff that ‘recruited’ him and the same defensive scheme they had when they did so. I personally find it hard to believe they drafted a guy in the First Round that they considered to be a ‘project’. 

Hey, sometimes players don't get it right away and it does take time for some. It's reps that will give this kid the experience he needs. He has the physical tools. I did give an example of Rasual Douglas who took a few seasons to develop. Clearly, the Bills must see potential or he would be gone as this coaching staff doesn't waste their time on "maybes".

 

 

On another note, the one player who I really thought they went after in the draft that was a waste was DE Carlos Basham Jr. But then, pass rushers trump all other draft picks other than a QB. So I can see why they went for the pass rusher over C Creed Humphrey. Who, so many fans here were calling for them to draft? Then again, the Bills have Mitch Morse who has been the linchpin of the Buffalo O line for years and still is...despite all the concussions. Still, they must be keeping Boogie around for a reason.

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, JohnNord said:

you can’t give a GM credit if a player does well outside of your organization after you let them walk.  That’s just flat out silly.  

Devin did well here too, we just didn’t run enough 

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, JohnNord said:

you can’t give a GM credit if a player does well outside of your organization after you let them walk.  That’s just flat out silly.  

 

Well, when it happens more than once or twice, it would seem to point to a significant disconnect between the Head Coach and the GM, at minimum.  

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, when it happens more than once or twice, it would seem to point to a significant disconnect between the Head Coach and the GM, at minimum.  

 

 

 

Or maybe just a simple failure in coaching.

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Or maybe just a simple failure in coaching.

 

Yeah, that was the implication.  Gotta be careful how you pitch things here.  LOL  

 

 

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, when it happens more than once or twice, it would seem to point to a significant disconnect between the Head Coach and the GM, at minimum.  

 

 

Again this is foolish to imply.  You’re assuming that draft picks are made in silos when they are not.  
 

It's not like the GM just makes a pick without coaches input.  Also, if the GM was a superior evaluator of talent, then why would they let such great players walk away or trade them to other teams. 
 

 

[Bermuda Triangle]

10 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Kinda, yes. But at the same time, Edmunds just left in FA. We were going into camp with only Milano, and then a bunch of question marks. Across our entire LB unit.

 

We were and are far better off at Safety and WR than LB from just a numbers game.

Didn't Beane say after the draft that Williams was drafted as an OLB?

 

Hyde was coming off of a potentially career-threatening injury, and Poyer very clearly lost a step or two last season.  If Rapp was signed as a replacement for either Hyde or Poyer, it'd odd that he got only a 1-year deal.  As for WR, the roster is deep from a numbers standpoint only - other than Diggs, is there a reliable, consistent WR on the roster?

[JohnNord]

10 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I agree with some of the premise of your message the only problem I have is not really with Beane it’s with McD a lot of the players on this list didn’t really get a chance to play until injuries started piling up. I believe McD is lost when it comes to evaluating talent on this team and wonder what other players on the bench can also play better than current starters? I would like to see Isabella take Harty and Sherfield snaps just to begin with and I would love to see Bates play instead of Morse just to name a few. 

You do realize that Beane is involved in the conversations which players to sit and which ones to play right?  

[Paup 1995MVP]

On 11/20/2023 at 6:53 PM, GunnerBill said:

It is the same to me - good not great. Because my view on Beane has always been he drafts very few busts. Lots of guys who can play. His day 3 draft record is better than most of his peers and his day 1 record Kaiir Elam apart is solid despite often having late 1st round picks. 

 

The knock on Beane is that in six drafts he has found one star - Josh Allen. The next closest he has is Ed Oliver. If Kincaid, Bernard or Cook (the three best stories of the season for the Bills) can go on and reach star status it would be a sigificant step.

 

There are 4 first team all pros on this roster who have earned that status as Bills. McDermott drafted two of them in one draft. McDermott signed one of them as an unheralded FA. Beane made a great trade for another.

 

That remains the bit that is missing for me to go from good to "very good" or "great." Yes, the Bills being successful has meant late picks in most rounds. But the GMs in that conversation for the top tier just above Beane have managed to find 1 or 2 and not all of those have been top 10 pick types.

Beane has done a good job w the roster for the most part.  Trading up for Edmonds was a mistake.  He is an overpaid JAG w no instincts or smarts for the game.  The Rasul Douglas trade was excellent.  Drafting Tyler Bass 4 years ago in the 6th round was a big time underrated move.   Signing an old Von Miller was not great.  Cole Beasley was a great free agent signing.  Benford and Bernard play well beyond their years.  Cook is a baller.  Gabe Davis is not.  The O line has been much better this year.  Connor McGovern has been a good signing.  Torrence was a good pick.  Cody Ford was not.  Dalton Kincaid was a big time pick.  And Shakir is starting to come into his own w a pretty high ceiling. But overall the team is lacking speed at the receiver position.  That needs to be fixed this offseason.  We can do much better then Sherfield Harty and Davis.  Our head coach is a question mark as well.  
 

let’s see how this roster stacks up this next month against the upper echelon teams.  That will give us a good idea of where we are at and what we need come next season. 

[Einstein]

On 11/20/2023 at 6:38 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Bonus Points:  Devin and Moss showing they can be good RB's when featured on other teams too I think furthers Beane's draft track record too.  Daboll and Dorsey just failed to get them more involved here.  

 

Singletary has 471 yards and 2 TD’s in 10 games.

 

Moss is the backup and is averaging about 5 carry’s per game now that Jonathan Taylor is back.

 

Not sure why you would hang your hat on either one of them.

[PBF81]

39 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Again this is foolish to imply.  You’re assuming that draft picks are made in silos when they are not.  
 

It's not like the GM just makes a pick without coaches input.  Also, if the GM was a superior evaluator of talent, then why would they let such great players walk away or trade them to other teams. 

 

No, that's not what was meant.  

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Singletary has 471 yards and 2 TD’s in 10 games.

 

Moss is the backup and is averaging about 5 carry’s per game now that Jonathan Taylor is back.

 

Not sure why you would hang your hat on either one of them.

 

Devin started 2 games, the last 2 games and in those 2 games what did he do?  Moss was amongst the NFL leaders in rushing before Taylor got back.  So not sure what your point is, both proved to play very good when given chances.