Beane's draft record - with several players emerging, has your opinion changed at all?

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No offense, but no GM or Coach cares at all about "positional value" once the draft is done.  That is jargon for fans and draft pundits and has no relevancy in the real football world.  It's about what those guys do on the football field...whether or not they took a player a littler earlier than draft analysts or mock drafters suggested is not something they remotely care about.  

 

And they took 4 starters in the first 2 rounds that have helped them to an 8-2 record and in the hunt for the #1 seed in the NFC.  I doubt many are negatively questioning their Gibbs selection anymore. 

 

And not sure why you think Gibbs hasn't been very good, he has 5 TD's in his last 4 games since he took on a bigger role with Montgomery went down.  He has almost 800 total yards despite being in a timeshare with TD vulture Montgomery for a large part of the season too.  Gibbs and LaPorta are a big part of their offense and look to be forces for them this year and the foreseeable future.  

 

 

It isn't about where mock drafters value a player. It is about the intrinsic value of certain poaitions in the modern NFL. And teams DO think about that. It is why the number of runnkng backs taken in round 1 has plummeted. In the 00s 32 round 1 running backs. In the 10s only 19. So far in the 20s (four drafts) only 5. The numbers are really clear teams overwhelmingly try and draft premium positions on day 1. That isn't coincidence. It is because those positions are the most expensive to pay. Whether in retaining your own or recruiting in FA.

 

Fair point on Gibbs that he appears to have broken out a bit more as the season has gone on and FWIW I didn't question LaPorta in round 2 (or Brian Branch in round 2 who was the steal of the whole second round IMO). I questioned the positional value of spending 2 top 20 picks on a running back and an off the ball linebacker. 

 

I also think the Lions played the 2021 and 2022 drafts perfectly to end up with a generational offensive tackle and an excellent young edge rusher (plus a starting 1T, arguably the best slot receiver in football, a starting linebacker and a starting safety). That is without getting anything at all from Jameson Williams who was definitely a shot worth taking. And I think it is THOSE pieces that largely are responsible for their record this season. You get Sewell and Hutchinson that should be transformational for a franchise. No surprise to me that it has been. 

 

Still - taking an off the ball linebacker and a running back in round 1 was bad positional value and to pay off they need those players to be perennial all pro types at their positions.

[SoMAn]

On 11/20/2023 at 6:48 PM, SoCal Deek said:

Not trying to be that guy, but the Elam pick still baffles me. Hard to believe he can’t even get on the field. Theres gotta be something more to the story. 

The Elam pick was the Bills between a rock and a hard place. They went against the usual ‘best player available’ practice and reached for a need. White was out with ACL, Wallace gone in FA…they were desperate for an affordable CB to start the 2022 season. Why he’s not on the field and is getting beat out by 7th rounders and journeymen is unknown.
I don’t have anything but my overall impression of him, but I suspect he’s not that sharp and doesn’t grasp the defensive concepts necessary to not be a liability.  He’s got physical tools. What else could it be? 

[Charles Romes]

Your record says who you are

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Beane is a very good drafter. This regime is certainly top 10 in the league in terms of drafting. 
 

2018 was a home run draft, beyond landing Josh, Taron Johnson is a stud on defense and Neal is a quality ST player. They also got 5 years of starting caliber play from Edumonds (plus a comp pick) some decent production from H Phillips. 
 

2019-2021 were probably average caliber drafts. 2019 Ed has finally emerged as the dominant player we all wanted, Knox and Singletary were also productive picks. 2020 AJE was a slow burn but he came on strong this season, Bass has been an elite kicker, Gabe and Dane have also produced. 2021 has thus far yielded solid starters in Groot and Brown. Each draft has yielded multiple starters but also had a good share of missed picks (Boogie and Cody Ford being the glaring examples). 

 

2022 and 2023 however are looking to be really good drafts. In 22 they got Cook and Shakir who on offense and Benford and Bernard on defense. Elam also still has plenty of time to turn it around and provide further value.

 

2023 is looking very good esp given the limited picks. Kincaid and Torrence have been plug and play starters while D Williams has flashed a lot of upside. Shorter is also someone that will get a chance to develop in 2024. 

 

I think this is fair - 2017 and 2018 (appreciate 2017 was not Beane) is EASILY the best two year drafting run of my Bills fandom. White, Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Edmunds, Johnson in the space of two drafts was the core of a football team for 5 years. 

 

2019-2021 was much more average, but nowhere close to a disaster. 2022-2023 too early to make complete conclusions but certainly Cook, Kincaid and Bernard look like legit players and Benford and Torrence are at least starter level talents, Shakir might be getting there too. 

 

But my point remains Allen apart there is yet to be a "star" among them. And that is thing that stops me putting Beane in the top 5 General Manager type territory. I think back half of the top 10 feels about right. 

[Chaos]

21 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I still dislike it. And neither of those players have been that good. 

Its a team game. Did these selections move the team forward as much as altnernative selections that could have been made? ( I don't know the answer).  

People freak out about best player available which then assumes all of these BPA's eventually jell into the best team. But NFL careers are fleeting. Some positions might be better filled with free agents in a given season. The BPA's may not have complimentary skills. The BPA's may not have great chemistry.  Drafting for "depth" or the "future" assumes a future that may never develop do to injuries or other factors. 

The lions seem to be better than last year. I have no idea if Campbell and Gibbs are any part of the reason they are better.  But if they made the team better then I don't think they are "bad" picks. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Chaos

[Bockeye]

Great topic.  I’ve definitely been critical of Beane, but to your point, some of the picks are showing and it’s great to see. I went from a C to a B grade. 
 

Was critical because you’re not going to the superbowl with Average drafts. 
 

Besides Allen, I’d love to see a player just crush it rookie year like happens to other teams all the time.  Having said that, Kincaid might be our guy. Terrible that Dorsey didn’t get him involved. 
 

Also - Don’t forget about Bass!!

Edited November 22, 2023 by Bockeye
Omission

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, SoMAn said:

The Elam pick was the Bills between a rock and a hard place. They went against the usual ‘best player available’ practice and reached for a need. White was out with ACL, Wallace gone in FA…they were desperate for an affordable CB to start the 2022 season. Why he’s not on the field and is getting beat out by 7th rounders and journeymen is unknown.
I don’t have anything but my overall impression of him, but I suspect he’s not that sharp and doesn’t grasp the defensive concepts necessary to not be a liability.  He’s got physical tools. What else could it be? 

We can all agree on that. But with that said, at this point he’s reserving his spot on the Wall of Fame of First Round Busts along with a few other notable Bills through the years. Again…baffling. 

[Bockeye]

14 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

As I recall, we've never been "favorites."   At the beginning of the last few seasons, the pundits, casinos, and analytical sites mostly had KC - and sometimes other teams - ahead of us in terms of probability.  

But I don't really care about any of that.  I care about reality as best as I can see it.  And from my vantage point, we've never had the league's best roster.  Or even the AFC's best roster.  So, a Super Bowl has never been very likely.

 

Sometimes, I think about it like this:  There are a few good teams in each conference each year each with a roughly 10% chance of winning the SB, plus or minus a few points.  For the past few years, we've been one of those teams.  In other words, the odds were always against us.   They're just not as long as they are for a crap team like the Pats.  

 

I'm grateful that Beane and McD have gotten us into the hunt.  But to improve our chances, the roster needs to get better.  

At times, we were the favorite to win the SB in 2021.  I think thats it though. 
 

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-betting-the-bills-are-the-super-bowl-favorite-at-the-halfway-point-of-the-2021-season-144427688.html

[FireChans]

45 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Its a team game. Did these selections move the team forward as much as altnernative selections that could have been made? ( I don't know the answer).  

People freak out about best player available which then assumes all of these BPA's eventually jell into the best team. But NFL careers are fleeting. Some positions might be better filled with free agents in a given season. The BPA's may not have complimentary skills. The BPA's may not have great chemistry.  Drafting for "depth" or the "future" assumes a future that may never develop do to injuries or other factors. 

The lions seem to be better than last year. I have no idea if Campbell and Gibbs are any part of the reason they are better.  But if they made the team better then I don't think they are "bad" picks. 

You can be wrong for the right reasons and right for the wrong reasons in the NFL.

 

The Chiefs, now famously, took CEH with pick 32 after winning the Super Bowl. He wasn’t a bad player, but it was a “luxury pick” because their team didn’t have too many holes. It was bad positional value, a pick made without eyes on the future. Tee Higgins went the next pick. 3 years later, their WR group was predictably dangerously thin, and they still won the Super Bowl with Pacheco and McKinnon leading the RB room, who were a 7th rounder and FA scrap heap player respectively. It was bad positional value, and easily replaced by superior players with less capital invested.

They were right, for the wrong reasons.

 

this year, they are STILL dangerously thin at WR, and it is costing them games. They may STILL win the Super Bowl, and thus still be right, for the wrong reasons. But if they don’t, that’s the pick that will be the reason why.

[mjt328]

14 hours ago, Gugny said:

I think if Beane was paired with a coaching staff who actually wanted to use the offensive players he’s drafted, then his grades would be much higher. 
 

But he’s been saddled with a HC who doesn’t like to play rookies, inexplicably benches young players, and under-or-mis-utilizes them - it’s difficult to look successful. 
 

We’ve all seen Singletary and Moss do we’ll post-McDermott. 
 

We all saw Beane give everything but his left nut to get a pass-catching RB in Hines … only to see him become a special teams player. 
 

We have all seen what Shakir can do when he’s actually on the field. 
 

So I have a difficult time condemning Beane … to an extent. 
 

I do think he took too long to address the O line and I do think he’s erred by not getting a legitimate WR2 to complement Diggs. 
 

But overall, I think a lot of his “misses,” are more of an overt disconnect between himself and his coaching staff. 

 

Ken Dorsey did a horrible job at utilizing the offensive talent. 

 

The pass-catching RB situation is the most obvious example.  Beane drafts James Cook and trades for Nyheim Hines.  One becomes a returner and the other spends most pass plays blocking.  It literally took one game out of Joe Brady for this to improve.

 

Despite all the talk in the offseason, Dorsey also had no idea how to utilize two TE sets.  It's not a coincidence that Dalton Kincaid suddenly broke out after Dawson Knox got hurt, and became a prime target in the offense.

 

It will be interesting to see if Brady can figure out ways to make Deonte Harty effective.

 

 

 

[stlbills13]

I think he's done a fine job drafting. Missed on some picks but almost all GM's do. I do think the positions he's targeted, especially towards the top of the draft, are the bigger problem. 

[Teddy KGB]

23 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

The guy has been GM of the year

 

Yes, he’s good

[mjt328]

4 hours ago, SoMAn said:

The Elam pick was the Bills between a rock and a hard place. They went against the usual ‘best player available’ practice and reached for a need. White was out with ACL, Wallace gone in FA…they were desperate for an affordable CB to start the 2022 season. Why he’s not on the field and is getting beat out by 7th rounders and journeymen is unknown.
I don’t have anything but my overall impression of him, but I suspect he’s not that sharp and doesn’t grasp the defensive concepts necessary to not be a liability.  He’s got physical tools. What else could it be? 

 

Kaiir Elam was drafted into a weird situation.

 

The biggest reason Cornerback was a need in the 2022 draft was because of Tre White's injury and unknown timeline for a return, along with the idea that we could upgrade on Dane Jackson... who was a solid, but unspectacular player.  Even though it was probably our biggest need that year, CB never really was a huge hole.

 

The Bills traditionally prefer scheme-fits at Cornerback (Levi Wallace, Jackson), as opposed to project guys with elite physical traits.  Elam was always going to take a little more time than other 1st Round guys to get up to speed.  Especially getting drafted into a zone style system he wasn't used to playing.  And especially on a Super Bowl contender who didn't have the luxury of letting him learn through mistakes on the field.

 

Making things more complicated, Beane then hit on Christian Benford in the 6th Round.  Less of an overall athlete, but certainly a better scheme fit for the Bills defense and more ready to play.  He won the job Week 1 2022, and has really looked the part ever since.  Benford really is a good CB.  By the time Elam really started getting playing time his rookie season, White was back in the lineup and trying to regain his Pro Bowl form.

 

Bottom line, I don't think the Bills have the patience to let a CB learn on the job.  And that's what Elam really needs to grow.  Rather than risk allowing big plays, they would rather just go with the safe/solid guys they can trust like Jackson and Benford.  Now that Rasul Douglas is on the team, I really can't see him going anywhere on this roster.

 

[Gugny]

24 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Ken Dorsey did a horrible job at utilizing the offensive talent. 

 

The pass-catching RB situation is the most obvious example.  Beane drafts James Cook and trades for Nyheim Hines.  One becomes a returner and the other spends most pass plays blocking.  It literally took one game out of Joe Brady for this to improve.

 

Despite all the talk in the offseason, Dorsey also had no idea how to utilize two TE sets.  It's not a coincidence that Dalton Kincaid suddenly broke out after Dawson Knox got hurt, and became a prime target in the offense.

 

It will be interesting to see if Brady can figure out ways to make Deonte Harty effective.

 

 

 

The piss-poor personnel management has been a problem since McDermott got hired. 
 

He is the common denominator. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Its a team game. Did these selections move the team forward as much as altnernative selections that could have been made? ( I don't know the answer).  

People freak out about best player available which then assumes all of these BPA's eventually jell into the best team. But NFL careers are fleeting. Some positions might be better filled with free agents in a given season. The BPA's may not have complimentary skills. The BPA's may not have great chemistry.  Drafting for "depth" or the "future" assumes a future that may never develop do to injuries or other factors. 

The lions seem to be better than last year. I have no idea if Campbell and Gibbs are any part of the reason they are better.  But if they made the team better then I don't think they are "bad" picks. 

 

I am not on about best player available. I am on about positional value. As in position on the football field. As in "are the better?" I mean they went 8-2 the final 10 games of last season. They are 8-2 currently. I think the slow start to last season was more about their 2022 Draft class starting to get their feet underneath them. That was a transformational class. 

[Chaos]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I am on about positional value

It seems most logical, that if FA cornerbacks or FA WRs or FA Pass Rushers cost a fortune, that you draft those positions as a priority. It also seems logical to draft the best player available.  It also seems logical to fill in roster holes.  Finding the balance between all of those items seems like the actual drafting challenge. 

I think for example we all agree QB is the highest positional value.  If the clear BPA at our draft position was also a QB, presumably we would not draft that QB, but would try to trade out of the position.  I use this example to point out that even if BPA and Positional Value collide, it may not always be the optimal pick (Although I am certain it would almost always be). 

The following are true:

1. Every NFL GM knows more about football and football players than I do.
2. Every NFL HC knows more about footbal and football players than I do.
3. Every NFL scout knows more about football and football players than I do.
4. NFL GMs, HCs, and scouts have dramatically more data and information than I do to use to evaluate players. 

The only thing I can do is observe the decisions the experts make and draw conclusions about what works and doesn't work.  The funny thing is it very simple to identify which team had the best combination of decisions each year.  In February they hand that team the Lombardi Trophy. 

 

I assume every GM and HC have a vision for the best roster they can practically build.  I think as an observer of results, one can also have their own vision of what is ideal.   Until the first two rounds of this years draft,  I have not really felt like Beanes/McDermott's vision of the roster aligned with my own observation what seems to be most consistent with hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.  From observation is seems as though the Bills vision was to build the ultimate "bend don't break" defense, and rely on Josh Allen to carry the offense (this is one of the reasons Allen is the all-time record holder for TDs, for the amount of time he has been in the league).  This vision served the team very well in the regular season and not as well in the playoffs.   Was Kincaid the best player at his draft position? Was Torrence the best at his position?  Don't know, Don't know.  I loved both picks. The fit my personal vision.  Did they improve the team? The 6-5 record suggests maybe not. At least for this year.  My emotional response to their performance is they have been great picks.  But until their are wins to support my emotional response, I have to say I don't know. 

 

Shifting back to your positional value. Most people would say all of the following were great draft picks:

 

Yet, in terms of wins and losses, none are successful picks.  Your specific criticism of the Gibbs pick is certainly supported by this.  However, if the Lions go on to the championship game this year I would be willing to accept that the Gibbs pick fit what they wanted to do, and it worked. If they stumble and miss the playoffs, then I would say their draft was probably not very good.   A bit of a ramble.  A really long way of saying, I am not sure you can parse out variables in the draft that actually directly connect to winning championships (beyond landing the elusive great QB). 

 

[GunnerBill]

44 minutes ago, Chaos said:

It seems most logical, that if FA cornerbacks or FA WRs or FA Pass Rushers cost a fortune, that you draft those positions as a priority. It also seems logical to draft the best player available.  It also seems logical to fill in roster holes.  Finding the balance between all of those items seems like the actual drafting challenge. 

I think for example we all agree QB is the highest positional value.  If the clear BPA at our draft position was also a QB, presumably we would not draft that QB, but would try to trade out of the position.  I use this example to point out that even if BPA and Positional Value collide, it may not always be the optimal pick (Although I am certain it would almost always be). 

The following are true:

1. Every NFL GM knows more about football and football players than I do.
2. Every NFL HC knows more about footbal and football players than I do.
3. Every NFL scout knows more about football and football players than I do.
4. NFL GMs, HCs, and scouts have dramatically more data and information than I do to use to evaluate players. 

The only thing I can do is observe the decisions the experts make and draw conclusions about what works and doesn't work.  The funny thing is it very simple to identify which team had the best combination of decisions each year.  In February they hand that team the Lombardi Trophy. 

 

I assume every GM and HC have a vision for the best roster they can practically build.  I think as an observer of results, one can also have their own vision of what is ideal.   Until the first two rounds of this years draft,  I have not really felt like Beanes/McDermott's vision of the roster aligned with my own observation what seems to be most consistent with hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.  From observation is seems as though the Bills vision was to build the ultimate "bend don't break" defense, and rely on Josh Allen to carry the offense (this is one of the reasons Allen is the all-time record holder for TDs, for the amount of time he has been in the league).  This vision served the team very well in the regular season and not as well in the playoffs.   Was Kincaid the best player at his draft position? Was Torrence the best at his position?  Don't know, Don't know.  I loved both picks. The fit my personal vision.  Did they improve the team? The 6-5 record suggests maybe not. At least for this year.  My emotional response to their performance is they have been great picks.  But until their are wins to support my emotional response, I have to say I don't know. 

 

Shifting back to your positional value. Most people would say all of the following were great draft picks:

 

Yet, in terms of wins and losses, none are successful picks.  Your specific criticism of the Gibbs pick is certainly supported by this.  However, if the Lions go on to the championship game this year I would be willing to accept that the Gibbs pick fit what they wanted to do, and it worked. If they stumble and miss the playoffs, then I would say their draft was probably not very good.   A bit of a ramble.  A really long way of saying, I am not sure you can parse out variables in the draft that actually directly connect to winning championships (beyond landing the elusive great QB). 

 

 

I don't agree with the bolded. There is just too much randomness and luck. You can make bad decisions and get lucky. You can make all the right decisions and still come up short. The best team does not always win the Superbowl. And I can think of countless years where that is true. 

 

As for positional value at the draft I think you can take a pretty clear view on that. There is enough data over the years to support it.

[Bill from NYC]

My vote was not for Beane exclusively. It was for the McDermott/Beane combo, with McDermott certainly having the greater say. 

 

I don't think any of us know what Beane would do without defense oriented McDermott dominating the conversation and trading up for defenders.

Sorry, McDermott DID trade down when he gave the Mahomes pick to KC, trading down 17 spots in the "process," and took a first round corner to play in a zone. 

 

Nope, can't pin that one on Beane.

[FilthyBeast]

For me it's still about long term success with all these guys. We've seen a lot of flash in the pan types come through Buffalo over the years, not just with this regime either.

 

And in the case of AJE, unfortunately he's playing his way out of Buffalo the more he produces this year which sucks since this team is stuck with Miller.

 

Early returns on this year's draft though do indicate it might be Beanes best one if you take Allen/2018 out of the equation.

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, Gugny said:

The piss-poor personnel management has been a problem since McDermott got hired. 
 

He is the common denominator. 

I agree that personnel use has not been optimal, to the point it has held the offense back from being the constant dynamic force it could be, it got much worse when Dorsey took over as OC, so bad in fact they had to fire him, Dorsey like Frazier never had a plan “B” and we all witnessed the results of that type of coordinator, does McDermott share in the blame? Yes he does, as well, things like Benching the best RB for a fumble or an up and coming receiver for a drop for an extended period of a game, that is an WTF moment, and he has done this throughout his tenure here, its a cut your nose off to spite your face move,  especially when there is no one better to put in that players place during the game, its these sorts of decisions that hold teams back.  I certainly hope that Joe Brady ignores McDermott when appropriate and does what needs to be done to win games, 

 

GO  BILLS!!!