Beane's draft record - with several players emerging, has your opinion changed at all?

[Alphadawg7]

Forget out team record this year (there are a lot of factors in that)...but one silver lining has been we have seen a lot of young players begin to emerge into good to even great players for us this year.  

 

So I am curious if the emergence of these young players, many of which were written off or not thought much of prior to the start of the season, has impacted people's view of his draft history.  Personally, I already thought Beane had done well in the draft...but he obviously still had his fair share of critics around here. 

 

Some of those players include:  AJE, Bernard, Benford, Shakir, Cook, Kincaid, O'Cyrus, Dorian, and even Oliver to an extent.  

• AJE - (2nd round)A long time whipping boy around here despite having a mini breakout last year with 6.5 sacks in a rotational role.  He has become a very good player for us this season already matching his sack total last year and on pace for 10 sacks, plus he has an INT and defensive TD.  
• Bernard - (3rd round)Labeled a bust by many the moment he was drafted and considered a major liability by most heading into this season.  But he has been one of the defenses best players for this team on the season.
• Benford - (6th round) Seen as a guy only playing because Elam wasn't ready to winning the 3 way battle and playing like a starting corner.
• Shakir - (5th round) Disregarded by many just because he fell to the 5th round, falsely labeled by many of not having good hands mostly because of one tough catch in the playoff last year.  Now he is becoming a staple in the offense with his snap count rising from 10% week 1 to now 80% nearly this week.  Has the best catch rate on the team.  
• Cook - (2nd round) Considered a change of pace 3rd down back with little value as a featured runner.  Currently 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards despite Dorsey's struggle with consistently involving him and looking like a long term important player for this offense right now.
• Kincaid - (1st round) He did have a lot of hype, but was too early to know, but he is proving that hype is legit and now the 2nd best receiving weapon on the team.  
• O'Cyrus - (2nd round) Instant starter and while he has had some rookie struggles, he has really made an impact on the OL for the most part. 
• Oliver - (1st round) Most were against his extension, now he not only is proving he was worth it, he has become one of the elite DT's in the NFL this year under McD's defense.  

 

So has this impacted your view of his draft history seeing these guys really start to emerge and breakout this year?  

 

NOTE:  I think AJE, Cook, and O'Cyrus play is getting to the point that the old "Beane can't draft in the 2nd round" criticism is headed for retirement.  

 

For the record, my vote was:

B Grade

A Grade

Better

Edited November 21, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[BBFL]

Nice post. There’s a healthy blend of talent throughout this team via draft and free agency. I get the McD criticism but Beane has done a decent job through the draft. At least 2 to 3 essential contributors each year. Not bad. Guy gets way too much flak for his draft history IMHO, can’t hit on every player as nice as it may be. 
 

One pick and one pick only have I disliked; the Boogie Basham double dip DE in the draft. 

Simply because Groot was taken shortly before him. Weird selection. 

[Mikie2times]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Forget out team record this year (there are a lot of factors in that)...but one silver lining has been we have seen a lot of young players begin to emerge into good to even great players for us this year.  

 

So I am curious if the emergence of these young players, many of which were written off or not thought much of prior to the start of the season, has impacted people's view of his draft history.  Personally, I already thought Beane had done well in the draft...but he obviously still had his fair share of critics around here. 

 

Some of those players include:  AJE, Bernard, Benford, Shakir, Cook, Kincaid, O'Cyrus, Dorian, and even Oliver to an extent.  

• AJE - (2nd round)A long time whipping boy around here despite having a mini breakout last year with 6.5 sacks in a rotational role.  He has become a very good player for us this season already matching his sack total last year and on pace for 10 sacks, plus he has an INT and defensive TD.  
• Bernard - (3rd round)Labeled a bust by many the moment he was drafted and considered a major liability by most heading into this season.  But he has been one of the defenses best players for this team on the season.
• Benford - (6th round) Seen as a guy only playing because Elam wasn't ready to winning the 3 way battle and playing like a starting corner.
• Shakir - (5th round) Disregarded by many just because he fell to the 5th round, falsely labeled by many of not having good hands mostly because of one tough catch in the playoff last year.  Now he is becoming a staple in the offense with his snap count rising from 10% week 1 to now 80% nearly this week.  Has the best catch rate on the team.  
• Cook - (2nd round) Considered a change of pace 3rd down back with little value as a featured runner.  Currently 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards despite Dorsey's struggle with consistently involving him and looking like a long term important player for this offense right now.
• Kincaid - (1st round) He did have a lot of hype, but was too early to know, but he is proving that hype is legit and now the 2nd best receiving weapon on the team.  
• O'Cyrus - (2nd round) Instant starter and while he has had some rookie struggles, he has really made an impact on the OL for the most part. 
• Oliver - (1st round) Most were against his extension, now he not only is proving he was worth it, he has become one of the elite DT's in the NFL this year under McD's defense.  

 

So has this impacted your view of his draft history seeing these guys really start to emerge and breakout this year?  

 

NOTE:  I think AJE, Cook, and O'Cyrus play is getting to the point that the old "Beane can't draft in the 2nd round" criticism is headed for retirement.  

What's even crazier to me...

 

Imagine if we said in the offseason that AJE would break out. Bernard would perform as well as Edmunds or better. Benford would turn into a solid starter. Shakir would develop as a slot. Cook would be top 3 in the NFL in rushing. Kincaid would be one of our leading receivers. O'Cyrus would perform above the level of a rookie. Ed would play at an All Pro level.  

 

How on earth would that not equal Super Bowl level trajectory for the team? Yet, here we are. Next few weeks could get really interesting if we can build off the Jets game. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by Mikie2times

[MJS]

Many people hated the Bernard pick. He is turning out to be an impact starter. Great to see, and it shows just how hard it is to predict success in the NFL.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, MJS said:

Many people hated the Bernard pick. He is turning out to be an impact starter. Great to see, and it shows just how hard it is to predict success in the NFL.

 

I find most people's take on draft night are rooted in 2 silly things...the stupid over valuing of what "draft number" they were taken at and what limited amount of names they know vs the many ones they don't know.  

 

This past draft, I argued in a number of threads (I think I even started my own about it) that the Lions had maybe the best draft in the NFL when everyone was giving them the lowest grade...and why did they get a low grade, because they took a "RB" at 12 in Gibbs.  So stupid...they landed the 2nd best RB prospect, the best LB prospect, the best S prospect, and the 2nd best TE prospect all in the first 2 rounds.  I told everyone it does not matter where a player is drafted once the pads go on, it matters what that players brings to their team.  And so far, the Lions draft class is paying off huge for them and a massive reason they are 8-2 including that RB pick everyone hated the draft slot of.  

 

While draft convo is always fun, really grading anyones draft before players have played a single down is pretty pointless and useless.  That is why it usually takes 3 seasons to really know how a draft really graded out.  

 

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Your Brown Eye]

B Grade

B Grade

Same

[Rubes]

Good post, I agree with just about everything.

 

My only comment is that I think Benford would look even stronger out there if he wasn't wearing a number in the 40s.

 

[Chaos]

Beane has assembled a playoff quality roster. He has a championship caliber QB.  He has not assembled a championship caliber roster (based on actual results), yet.  Until the advance to a super bowl, I can't really change my opinion on roster construction.  He is good. Not yet great.   I think all of the evidence points to "roster construction" as the sole GM measure. Not draft, not trades, not Free agent signings all separate.  Championship rosters have been constructed in all sorts of ways. 

[Alphadawg7]

Bonus Points:  Devin and Moss showing they can be good RB's when featured on other teams too I think furthers Beane's draft track record too.  Daboll and Dorsey just failed to get them more involved here.  

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Beane has assembled a playoff quality roster. He has a championship caliber QB.  He has not assembled a championship caliber roster (based on actual results), yet.  Until the advance to a super bowl, I can't really change my opinion on roster construction.  He is good. Not yet great.   I think all of the evidence points to "roster construction" as the sole GM measure. Not draft, not trades, not Free agent signings all separate.  Championship rosters have been constructed in all sorts of ways. 

 

That is fair, but at the same time, a LOT goes into winning a championship or not. 31 teams are disappointed every year including one who makes the SB.  It is easy to make a case that in 2021 Beane put the best roster in the NFL on the field and saw a ST coaching blunder fumble it away in 13 seconds.  2022 can't blame Beane for Tre not being himself, Von getting hurt, Hamlin scare, Knox brothers death, mass shooting, deadly blizzards, Araiza false accusation, Daboll getting a HC gig, etc etc that all impacted the team throughout the year.  

 

So when it comes to grading his drafts, I am going to put aside the fact we have not yet won a SB because so much more than just his role as a GM goes into that.  

[Chaos]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Bonus Points:  Devin and Moss showing they can be good RB's when featured on other teams too I think furthers Beane's draft track record too.  Daboll and Dorsey just failed to get them more involved here.  

Your question is about his draft record, not his ability to scout talent.  These are two very different skills.  Its actually a huge fail to draft players the coaches don't want or need or know how to use.  

[SoCal Deek]

Not trying to be that guy, but the Elam pick still baffles me. Hard to believe he can’t even get on the field. Theres gotta be something more to the story. 

[GunnerBill]

It is the same to me - good not great. Because my view on Beane has always been he drafts very few busts. Lots of guys who can play. His day 3 draft record is better than most of his peers and his day 1 record Kaiir Elam apart is solid despite often having late 1st round picks. 

 

The knock on Beane is that in six drafts he has found one star - Josh Allen. The next closest he has is Ed Oliver. If Kincaid, Bernard or Cook (the three best stories of the season for the Bills) can go on and reach star status it would be a sigificant step.

 

There are 4 first team all pros on this roster who have earned that status as Bills. McDermott drafted two of them in one draft. McDermott signed one of them as an unheralded FA. Beane made a great trade for another.

 

That remains the bit that is missing for me to go from good to "very good" or "great." Yes, the Bills being successful has meant late picks in most rounds. But the GMs in that conversation for the top tier just above Beane have managed to find 1 or 2 and not all of those have been top 10 pick types.

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It is the same to me - good not great. Because my view on Beane has always been he drafts very few busts. Lots of guys who can play. His day 3 draft record is better than most of his peers and his day 1 record Kaiir Elam apart is solid despite often having late 1st round picks. 

 

The knock on Beane is that in six drafts he has found one star - Josh Allen. The next closest he has is Ed Oliver. If Kincaid, Bernard or Cook (the three best stories of the season for the Bills) can go on and reach star status it would be a sigificant step.

 

There are 4 first team all pros on this roster who have earned that status as Bills. McDermott drafted two of them in one draft. McDermott signed one of them as an unheralded FA. Beane made a great trade for another.

 

That remains the bit that is missing for me to go from good to "very good" or "great." Yes, the Bills being successful has meant late picks in most rounds. But the GMs in that conversation for the top tier just above Beane have managed to find 1 or 2 and not all of those have been top 10 pick types.

Well said.

I forget which Bills reporter/talking head said it (Sal? Buscaglia? Bruce Nolan on Twitter?) but Brandon Beane hits lots of singles and doubles, but rarely any home runs. He doesn't strike out often either, and that's why he still keeps getting more at-bats.

Kincaid and Bernard are starting to look like potential home runs. Torrence, Cook, and Benford (particularly given how late he was drafted) are starting to look like they could at least be in that conversation, as well.

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by Logic

[Alphadawg7]

25 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Your question is about his draft record, not his ability to scout talent.  These are two very different skills.  Its actually a huge fail to draft players the coaches don't want or need or know how to use.  

 

Devin was a good player for us, he was under used.  Its not like Devin stunk and then went somewhere else to get good.  He had a great YPC here, but we were an aggressive pass offense with a QB who could run.  Any RB we had here under Daboll wasn't going to be a staple of the offense here, that was not how Daboll ran his offense.  So that isn't on Beane.  

 

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It is the same to me - good not great. Because my view on Beane has always been he drafts very few busts. Lots of guys who can play. His day 3 draft record is better than most of his peers and his day 1 record Kaiir Elam apart is solid despite often having late 1st round picks. 

 

The knock on Beane is that in six drafts he has found one star - Josh Allen. The next closest he has is Ed Oliver. If Kincaid, Bernard or Cook (the three best stories of the season for the Bills) can go on and reach star status it would be a sigificant step.

 

There are 4 first team all pros on this roster who have earned that status as Bills. McDermott drafted two of them in one draft. McDermott signed one of them as an unheralded FA. Beane made a great trade for another.

 

That remains the bit that is missing for me to go from good to "very good" or "great." Yes, the Bills being successful has meant late picks in most rounds. But the GMs in that conversation for the top tier just above Beane have managed to find 1 or 2 and not all of those have been top 10 pick types.

 

This is a fair take and can't really disagree with much of it.  I was here with you until the emergence we have seen from several of our younger players this year.  The ability to find pretty good to very good players outside of the 1st round just put me over the top enough to raise his grade to an A.  But I also feel its fair to want to wait until some of those young guys on the rise like Kincaid, Cook, and Bernard reach "great" status on their own before you are willing to elevate your grade.  

Edited November 21, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

28 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Not trying to be that guy, but the Elam pick still baffles me. Hard to believe he can’t even get on the field. Theres gotta be something more to the story. 

 

AJE couldn't get on the field a lot early either...I wouldn't write off Elam yet.  There are real question marks about Tre's future as this is another tough injury to come back from.  There could still be a place for Elam here who has shown flashes.  

 

Elam's story is a 3 part story IMHO:

1. Tre, Benford and Dane were all good DB's in their own right and wasn't going to be easy for Elam to beat them out.  
2. Elam's fit into this defense depended on how well he could improve in certain areas of his game.  
3. He went on IR shortly after the opportunity for more playing time arose.  

One thing we know about Elam is he is dedicated to his craft and getting better.  So I think its too early to give up on Elam right now.  We have seen plenty of rookies struggle to make an impact early on and then really turn it on when their number was called.  Look at AJE, Cook, Shakir, Bernard, etc who didn't contribute a lot as rookies but later have as their opportunities increased.  

28 minutes ago, Logic said:

Well said.

I forget which Bills reporter/talking head said it (Sal? Buscaglia? Bruce Nolan on Twitter?) but Brandon Beane hits lots of singles and doubles, but rarely any home runs. He doesn't strike out often either, and that's why he still keeps getting more at-bats.

Kincaid and Bernard are starting to look like potential home runs. Torrence, Cook, and Benford (particularly given how late he was drafted) are starting to look like they could at least be in that conversation, as well.

 

 

I do also personally think trading draft picks for Diggs should count on his draft performance.  Diggs is the palyer he netted with picks, and that trade had plenty of skeptics and critics too when it happened.  

 

Flipping picks to land an elite player that impacted this team as much as Diggs did is as much a homerun as drafting one IMHO.  

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I find most people's take on draft night are rooted in 2 silly things...the stupid over valuing of what "draft number" they were taken at and what limited amount of names they know vs the many ones they don't know.  

 

This past draft, I argued in a number of threads (I think I even started my own about it) that the Lions had maybe the best draft in the NFL when everyone was giving them the lowest grade...and why did they get a low grade, because they took a "RB" at 12 in Gibbs.  So stupid...they landed the 2nd best RB prospect, the best LB prospect, the best S prospect, and the 2nd best TE prospect all in the first 2 rounds.  I told everyone it does not matter where a player is drafted once the pads go on, it matters what that players brings to their team.  And so far, the Lions draft class is paying off huge for them and a massive reason they are 8-2 including that RB pick everyone hated the draft slot of.  

 

While draft convo is always fun, really grading anyones draft before players have played a single down is pretty pointless and useless.  That is why it usually takes 3 seasons to really know how a draft really graded out.  

Yeah, I LOVED the Lions draft. People here were trashing it for some reason. So weird.

[gobills404]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Bonus Points:  Devin and Moss showing they can be good RB's when featured on other teams too I think furthers Beane's draft track record too.  Daboll and Dorsey just failed to get them more involved here.  

Devin showed he was a good RB while he was in Buffalo

[Alphadawg7]

Only one person thought he had a D grade before the season started?  
 

Where are all the people here who were saying Beane sucks and has a bad draft record prior to the season starting?  

Edited November 21, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Niagara Dude]

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Forget out team record this year (there are a lot of factors in that)...but one silver lining has been we have seen a lot of young players begin to emerge into good to even great players for us this year.  

 

So I am curious if the emergence of these young players, many of which were written off or not thought much of prior to the start of the season, has impacted people's view of his draft history.  Personally, I already thought Beane had done well in the draft...but he obviously still had his fair share of critics around here. 

 

Some of those players include:  AJE, Bernard, Benford, Shakir, Cook, Kincaid, O'Cyrus, Dorian, and even Oliver to an extent.  

• AJE - (2nd round)A long time whipping boy around here despite having a mini breakout last year with 6.5 sacks in a rotational role.  He has become a very good player for us this season already matching his sack total last year and on pace for 10 sacks, plus he has an INT and defensive TD.  
• Bernard - (3rd round)Labeled a bust by many the moment he was drafted and considered a major liability by most heading into this season.  But he has been one of the defenses best players for this team on the season.
• Benford - (6th round) Seen as a guy only playing because Elam wasn't ready to winning the 3 way battle and playing like a starting corner.
• Shakir - (5th round) Disregarded by many just because he fell to the 5th round, falsely labeled by many of not having good hands mostly because of one tough catch in the playoff last year.  Now he is becoming a staple in the offense with his snap count rising from 10% week 1 to now 80% nearly this week.  Has the best catch rate on the team.  
• Cook - (2nd round) Considered a change of pace 3rd down back with little value as a featured runner.  Currently 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards despite Dorsey's struggle with consistently involving him and looking like a long term important player for this offense right now.
• Kincaid - (1st round) He did have a lot of hype, but was too early to know, but he is proving that hype is legit and now the 2nd best receiving weapon on the team.  
• O'Cyrus - (2nd round) Instant starter and while he has had some rookie struggles, he has really made an impact on the OL for the most part. 
• Oliver - (1st round) Most were against his extension, now he not only is proving he was worth it, he has become one of the elite DT's in the NFL this year under McD's defense.  

 

So has this impacted your view of his draft history seeing these guys really start to emerge and breakout this year?  

 

NOTE:  I think AJE, Cook, and O'Cyrus play is getting to the point that the old "Beane can't draft in the 2nd round" criticism is headed for retirement.  

 

For the record, my vote was:

B Grade

A Grade

Better

 He has had some nice picks and some terrible high choices as many do because drafting is not an exact science.  High picks Boggie/Ford with Elam looking like his worse pick ever.  Busting on top 1st or 2nd rounders is a killer,  no need to take Boggie after they select DE Rousseau with first rounder and taking Ford was sickening because many including myself were hopeful on draft night to select either WR'S Metcalf or Brown who are now stars.  Receiver room is weak because he has never drafted a receiver with a higher choice pick and that has hurt our offence because it does not even have legit #2 WR receiver on this roster.  

 

I do like his the Bernard choice who looks like a player and seems to make a lot of plays, Cook looks good but KC also took Pacheco with 7th rounder, Oliver finally is playing up to potential as a top 10 pick, O'Cyrus looks like another solid choice that will be an anchor of this line for years,  AJE looks ok just need more consistency, Benford could easily slide over to safety next season and looks like a solid late round choice, Shakir still has room to develop and has shown some signs, Rousseau I like a lot ,  think he can be a star in this league and his choice made drafting Boggie in the very next round even more questionable, Spencer Brown has been decent but not great because he gets burnt a lot,  Dorian Williams has shown some flashes of speed and being able to move sideline to sideline and with experience could develop into a solid LB, right now he makes mistakes as many rookie LB'S do and Kincaid looks like a future AL PRO TE  and could be the next Kelce once he adds a few pounds. I think Kincaid will eventually become Allen #1 option.  Overall his drafting has been solid but not spectacular.  

 

I think the GM in KC has been spectacular when you look at some the great young player they have drafted in the past 2 seasons some with later round picks.  They won a Super Bowl last season which was a reset year because of drafting and so many rookies making big contributions

Edited November 21, 2023 by Niagara Dude
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