The Truth About the Bills Run Game

[PatsFanNH]

22 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

THE TRUTH ABOUT THE BILLS RUN GAME

 

There's a lot of misconception about the Bills run game this season, most notable is the notion that the Bills are not successful running from the gun, that the Bills Zone Scheme run game is horrendous, and that the Bills should never run from gun in short yardage situations. I took the time to break down every run concept from Week 1 through Week 10 in order to take a deep dive and flesh out what's real and what's just national media and message board noise.

 

Through the first 10 weeks of the season it appears as though we hang our hat on 5 different run concepts. Three of those concepts being Zone blocking schemes (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, and Duo), one being a Gap blocking scheme (Dart), and one being Man blocking scheme (ISO). We've run each of these concepts at least 20 times on the season. In total we've run 21 different run concepts - 8 Zone (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, Duo, Sprint Draw, Split Zone, Zone Read, Q Draw, and Outside Zone), 9 Gap (Dart, Counter, Pin & Pull, Buck, Long Trap, Power, Q Dart, Q Counter, and Trap), and 2 Man (Iso and Base). All of our top 5 concepts except ISO average over 4 yards per carry but, more importantly, all of our top 5 run concepts have a Success Rate above 65%.

 

Success Rate (SR) is a measure which adds context to our rushing data, something yards per carry does not. We define success rate as a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% of yards required on 3rd and 4th down. Dart, which also has the highest yards per carry average of 6.83 yards per carry also has the highest SR at 75.9%. This is clearly our most successful run concept. Dart has been primarily run out of Gun (27/29 attempts), and when run out of gun averages 7.07 yards per carry while only averaging 3.5 yards per carry while run from under center. Similarly, Inside Zone (our second most successful play at 66.7% SR and 4.48 ypc) has an 81% SR when run from Gun as opposed to 45.5% when under center.

 

The Bills are Not Successful Running from Gun

 

Overall, this season we've run 83 times from under center for an average of 5.06 yards per carry and a SR of 54.2% and 123 times from gun for an average of 4.5 yards per carry and a SR of 61.0%. So we are more successful when running from the gun than we are running from under center. When you look at the splits the only time we've been more successful running from under center than gun has been on 2nd and medium (4-7).

 

The Bills Zone Scheme Run Game is Not Good

 

Overall, Zone and Gap have the exact same SR (57.4%). Man schemes have the highest SR at 66.7% which is to be expected because it's run most in short yardage situations where the yardage to gain is easier to attain. Specifically our Inside Zone and Duo concepts, which were ripped in some video that made its rounds around here a few days ago, are both averaging about 4.5 yards per carry or better and a SR of over 60%. The notion that these two schemes have been detrimental to our run game are just false.

 

The Bills Should Never Run from the Gun in Short Yardage Situations

 

In Down and 0-3 yards to go situations the Bills have run from under center 18 times for 4.89 yards per carry and a 66.7% SR while running from gun 30 times for a 5.03 yards per carry average and an 80% SR. Specifically looking at 3rd down situations the numbers still favor running from gun though the samples are admittedly small from under center (Under Center: 3 for 2.67 and 66.7% SR | Gun: 15 for 2.87 and 80% SR).

 

Overall Thoughts

 

It's clear to me from watching the film and going through the data that we have been successful running both out of gun and under center this year. All these rumors being spread by national media and message board members that we should not be in gun or should not be running zone schemes are just rumors. Obviously, scheme is very dependent on what you will see from your opponent, but the data shows that the Bills are establishing a clear identity as to what they want to do in the run game and where they think their strengths lie as a team. What was frustrating was going back and seeing how many times drive stalled out because we refused to run the football even after statistically successful run attempts. This has been one of the biggest components in why our offense has struggled over the last however many weeks.

Great post! I would say it’s obvious the Bills when they lose, this year, they don’t run enough. Pats —12times Jets -12 times Broncos -8 times. Now the yards per carry may be good but your not keeping any team honest running those few times 

[HoofHearted]

17 hours ago, Old Coot said:

Excellent analysis.

 

Over the past several games the RB consistently gets to the 2d level before being hit. This suggests that the OL is opening holes for the RB, something that the OL hasn't been able to do consistently in the past.

 

Do you have any insight as to why the OL is able to open holes? Is it scheme? OL jelling? Something else?

 

The OL has been playing really well this year overall in the run game. There is some scheme stuff that we’re doing with our zone concepts (folding Mitch fairly often on inside and mid zone) that I may do a post on in the X’s and O’s Thread at some point.

[warrior9]

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

ty 🤙

 

so Torrence just wasn't able to get to the second level but the numbers were right

 

one more question specific to this play, what does Diggs playside motion accomplish here?

Torrence looks kind of unsure of himself in zone blocks vs Jets

If I were to guess, they had ran that play and assumed the defense was in ZC. Motioning Diggs gets another blocker at the POA but seems like Jets either audibled or were disguised and in man. 

[HoofHearted]

9 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

@HoofHearted Any thoughts on why we don’t see any pistol from this team? 
 

A lot of the benefits of being under center and in gun, but rarely do I recall seeing us use it.

Pistol takes a ton of time to get right because of how different it is. It messes with timings, footwork, and aiming points - all of these would have to be taught differently than Gun and Under Center run concepts.

 

Look up Chris Ault if you want to learn more about it. When he was at Nevada they spent an entire spring ball developing their pistol offense and it took a ton of time to get all of the kinks worked out.

[Haplo848]

22 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

THE TRUTH ABOUT THE BILLS RUN GAME

 

There's a lot of misconception about the Bills run game this season, most notable is the notion that the Bills are not successful running from the gun, that the Bills Zone Scheme run game is horrendous, and that the Bills should never run from gun in short yardage situations. I took the time to break down every run concept from Week 1 through Week 10 in order to take a deep dive and flesh out what's real and what's just national media and message board noise.

 

Through the first 10 weeks of the season it appears as though we hang our hat on 5 different run concepts. Three of those concepts being Zone blocking schemes (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, and Duo), one being a Gap blocking scheme (Dart), and one being Man blocking scheme (ISO). We've run each of these concepts at least 20 times on the season. In total we've run 21 different run concepts - 8 Zone (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, Duo, Sprint Draw, Split Zone, Zone Read, Q Draw, and Outside Zone), 9 Gap (Dart, Counter, Pin & Pull, Buck, Long Trap, Power, Q Dart, Q Counter, and Trap), and 2 Man (Iso and Base). All of our top 5 concepts except ISO average over 4 yards per carry but, more importantly, all of our top 5 run concepts have a Success Rate above 65%.

 

Success Rate (SR) is a measure which adds context to our rushing data, something yards per carry does not. We define success rate as a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% of yards required on 3rd and 4th down. Dart, which also has the highest yards per carry average of 6.83 yards per carry also has the highest SR at 75.9%. This is clearly our most successful run concept. Dart has been primarily run out of Gun (27/29 attempts), and when run out of gun averages 7.07 yards per carry while only averaging 3.5 yards per carry while run from under center. Similarly, Inside Zone (our second most successful play at 66.7% SR and 4.48 ypc) has an 81% SR when run from Gun as opposed to 45.5% when under center.

 

The Bills are Not Successful Running from Gun

 

Overall, this season we've run 83 times from under center for an average of 5.06 yards per carry and a SR of 54.2% and 123 times from gun for an average of 4.5 yards per carry and a SR of 61.0%. So we are more successful when running from the gun than we are running from under center. When you look at the splits the only time we've been more successful running from under center than gun has been on 2nd and medium (4-7).

 

The Bills Zone Scheme Run Game is Not Good

 

Overall, Zone and Gap have the exact same SR (57.4%). Man schemes have the highest SR at 66.7% which is to be expected because it's run most in short yardage situations where the yardage to gain is easier to attain. Specifically our Inside Zone and Duo concepts, which were ripped in some video that made its rounds around here a few days ago, are both averaging about 4.5 yards per carry or better and a SR of over 60%. The notion that these two schemes have been detrimental to our run game are just false.

 

The Bills Should Never Run from the Gun in Short Yardage Situations

 

In Down and 0-3 yards to go situations the Bills have run from under center 18 times for 4.89 yards per carry and a 66.7% SR while running from gun 30 times for a 5.03 yards per carry average and an 80% SR. Specifically looking at 3rd down situations the numbers still favor running from gun though the samples are admittedly small from under center (Under Center: 3 for 2.67 and 66.7% SR | Gun: 15 for 2.87 and 80% SR).

 

Overall Thoughts

 

It's clear to me from watching the film and going through the data that we have been successful running both out of gun and under center this year. All these rumors being spread by national media and message board members that we should not be in gun or should not be running zone schemes are just rumors. Obviously, scheme is very dependent on what you will see from your opponent, but the data shows that the Bills are establishing a clear identity as to what they want to do in the run game and where they think their strengths lie as a team. What was frustrating was going back and seeing how many times drive stalled out because we refused to run the football even after statistically successful run attempts. This has been one of the biggest components in why our offense has struggled over the last however many weeks.

 

 

Is running from gun a bad thing still talked about this year?  I understand it in the previous years, because our run game was pretty bad, but especially out of the gun in previous years, but this year, I've been incredibly frustrated by the lack of run plays called.  Before the Jets game, while we were in our 6(?) week slump, it seemed like we'd go nowhere when hyper focused on just passing the ball, but when we'd have drives where we were balanced and ran the ball, good things would happen.  The only problem was, Dorsey kept refusing to call run plays.  It seemed like we'd drop back and pass it three times, but they'd be waiting for it all three times, and we'd go three and out.  However, when we sprinkled in the run, they wouldn't be expecting it as much, and so we got some good yards on the ground.  So they'd be forced to respect the run, at which point the coverage would loosen up and we'd do better in the passing game as well.  Only by the time Dorsey realized "hey, running the ball is actually a thing, I should try doing every once in a while," we'd already be losing.  We'd have good, long, dominant drives where they couldn't stop us, but that would be to just get back into the game, and it would be a toss up whether we'd get enough points to win it or just make it close by the end of the game.  

 

This year, I've got not problem running out of shotgun, mainly because our run blocking as a whole has gotten better, so the formation we run out doesn't matter as much.  The only time I have issues with run plays are when we try to do those wide, stretch or toss plays out of shotgun.  They only seem to go horizontally, and as the RB is starting about 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, that ends up being a big loss.  They're fairly boom or bust plays, with bust being MUCH more likely.  If you HAVE to run it wide out of shotgun, I'd MUCH prefer a jet sweep than a HB toss or whatnot.

[HoofHearted]

2 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

 

Thanks for this breakdown.

I have thought that the Bills usually do a pretty good job running the ball and mixing it up. The issues have been how they have oddly abandoned it for long stretches when they are winning up front and gashing opposing teams.

 

There were times we got stuffed or TFL, but seemed we ran straight into number disadvantages and never checked out of those plays.

 

Suspect those had more to do with the lack of effective in-game offensive staff communication that McD indicated had improved this last game.

 

Regarding runs from under center, as you mentioned I would like to see more near the goal line before drawing any conclusions, but think there is also an advantage of Allen potentially sneaking on those too that you lose from shotgun.

Allen's good use of play action from under center has been more my contention for leaning into it.

 

He hides the ball better, and tends to hit the back foot on his drop and be decisive with getting the ball out on schedule...

 

They don't have to feature it, but mixing in a bit more in I think would be beneficial.

Excited to see how Brady uses our run playbook as I already really like his use of motion creating space for getting the running backs more involved in the passing game.

 

For what it’s worth I don’t recall ever seeing us run into a numbers disadvantage while going through the film. Again, I think this has more to do with people not understanding what is considered “the box” when we’re in condensed sets.

[finn]

45 minutes ago, Haplo848 said:

 

 

Is running from gun a bad thing still talked about this year?  I understand it in the previous years, because our run game was pretty bad, but especially out of the gun in previous years, but this year, I've been incredibly frustrated by the lack of run plays called.  Before the Jets game, while we were in our 6(?) week slump, it seemed like we'd go nowhere when hyper focused on just passing the ball, but when we'd have drives where we were balanced and ran the ball, good things would happen.  The only problem was, Dorsey kept refusing to call run plays.  It seemed like we'd drop back and pass it three times, but they'd be waiting for it all three times, and we'd go three and out.  However, when we sprinkled in the run, they wouldn't be expecting it as much, and so we got some good yards on the ground.  So they'd be forced to respect the run, at which point the coverage would loosen up and we'd do better in the passing game as well.  Only by the time Dorsey realized "hey, running the ball is actually a thing, I should try doing every once in a while," we'd already be losing.  We'd have good, long, dominant drives where they couldn't stop us, but that would be to just get back into the game, and it would be a toss up whether we'd get enough points to win it or just make it close by the end of the game.  

 

Your observations make me think the problem was mostly Dorsey after all, or Dorsey and a cascade of ensuing problems.

 

Well, it's a pretty deep hole they've dug, but it's not impossible to pull this thing off, especially if they beat Philly going into the bye, which would start to change the narrative on this team. 

[PBF81]

20 hours ago, Wizard said:

Good post. The only point I would argue is some games the running game is non existent (despite overall numbers) and other games (see the Broncos game) both Cook and Murray were running well both in total yardsand per carry, and we went with a pass play on 4th and 1 and several 3rd and 2.

 

Indeed.  It seems that the majority of complaints about our running game are about when we're running just fine, gobbling up huge chunks of yardage, then we abandon that and force the passing game.  

 

Why?  

 

Is that what McDimwit calls complimentary football?  

 

It's mystefying at times.  

 

No one is saying that we need to be a running team first, but teams are obviously going to shut Allen down, when they do, to one extent or another, then run, particularly if that's working.  Common sense there, yet ... 

 

 

[HoofHearted]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

HH, thanks for the deep dive here. Can you give a rough idea of how many times a game you'd like to run the ball and perhaps numbers just for Cook? Do you believe he's too small to be a feature back? 

 

Many people here think with JA throwing you don't need to run a lot and it's a "waste" of snaps. Do you agree?

 

Thanks.

I think you’d be doing yourself a disservice if you put an arbitrary number to rushing attempts. There’s just so many variable involved. The easy answer is enough times to not allow your opponent to pin their ears back and penetrate every snap, but that threshold varies based on the team you play. I do think you ideally want to get Cook 16-18 touches a game in any capacity you can though.

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

ty 🤙

 

so Torrence just wasn't able to get to the second level but the numbers were right

 

one more question specific to this play, what does Diggs playside motion accomplish here?

Torrence looks kind of unsure of himself in zone blocks vs Jets

It pulls a defender out of the box.

[WideNine]

19 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

For what it’s worth I don’t recall ever seeing us run into a numbers disadvantage while going through the film. Again, I think this has more to do with people not understanding what is considered “the box” when we’re in condensed sets.

 

Not sure about counting guys in the box.

 

What I recalled was Dawkins having 2 defenders with outside leverage and I thought he was reaching to block the closest one so I think we were trying to run an outside zone and we ran into the unblocked defender.

 

Did not seem like we had a hat on a hat in those few scenarios. 

 

Admittedly, I am trying to go off memory. Would be curious about our runs when Dawkins is uncovered.

 

What weakside runs do we have the most success with. I thought I have seen some stretch runs to that side that have been blown up with backside pursuit.

 

As always appreciate the insight and that you are looking at the tape.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WideNine]

4 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

The truth!!

 

This board can’t handle the truth!

 

GO  BILLS!!!

 

Truth... I think we do OK with that gritty stuff and the kicks to the sprinkler, it is unbridled optimism we would have no clue how to handle.

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, HoofHearted said:

I think you’d be doing yourself a disservice if you put an arbitrary number to rushing attempts. There’s just so many variable involved. The easy answer is enough times to not allow your opponent to pin their ears back and penetrate every snap, but that threshold varies based on the team you play. I do think you ideally want to get Cook 16-18 touches a game in any capacity you can though.

It pulls a defender out of the box.

That could also be accomplished by morning him out wide tho right

 

Is this a specific look they're trying to get on tape or something? Or is that motion across formation just standard 

[njbuff]

Another reason to shake your head as to why this team is only 6-5 approaching a HORRIBLE schedule. 

[eme123]

Offenses have a clear advantage in the pass game. The more you’re running the more you’re losing. The fantasy nuts just refuse to believe it. 

[HoofHearted]

45 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That could also be accomplished by morning him out wide tho right

 

Is this a specific look they're trying to get on tape or something? Or is that motion across formation just standard 

Against man it just pulls whoever is covering him. Against zone it would pull a box defender (OLB since it’s a change of pass strength motion) out of the box.

20 minutes ago, eme123 said:

Offenses have a clear advantage in the pass game. The more you’re running the more you’re losing. The fantasy nuts just refuse to believe it. 

And the data nuts will have you believe you should throw 100% of the time. There’s a sweet spot in there somewhere, but it’s going to vary based on opponent and how they play.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Against man it just pulls whoever is covering him. Against zone it would pull a box defender (OLB since it’s a change of pass strength motion) out of the box.

And the data nuts will have you believe you should throw 100% of the time. There’s a sweet spot in there somewhere, but it’s going to vary based on opponent and how they play.

🤙🤙Ty good stuff

[DapperCam]

Two things I would be curious about:

 

- What is the tackle for loss or no gain rate for shotgun runs vs under center. My impression is that under center runs have lower ceiling and higher floor (less likely to result in a negative play).
- What is the play action success rate out of shotgun vs under center. If play action is a lot more successful under center, then it is worth it to run the marginally less effective under center running plays.

Edited November 22, 2023 by DapperCam

[HoofHearted]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

Two things I would be curious about:

 

- What is the tackle for loss or no gain rate for shotgun runs vs under center. My impression is that under center runs have lower ceiling and higher floor (less likely to result in a negative play).
- What is the play action success rate out of shotgun vs under center. If play action is a lot more successful under center, then it is worth it to run the marginally less effective under center running plays.

Under center is a 1% higher rate for loss or no gain. Unfortunately I don't have any data on your second question as I was just charting run schemes.

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

So the obvious statement here is - if the Bills are averaging 4-6 ypc out of any alignment, then we should be pounding the rock more.  

 

The Bills average 7.1 NY/A (pass yards-sack yards lost)/(pass attempts + sacks).  They average 4.4 YPC on rush attempts.

So...in theory, passing is a more efficient way to gain yards which is why explosive and high scoring offenses tend to pass a lot.

 

But...well here, let me see if I can pull some data

 

(click to enlarge)

 

These data are sorted by W, then PF.  % use (pass attempts + rush attempts)

 

We can see that currently, 2 of the top 10 teams rush more than they pass, Ravens and 49ers, with the Eagles close to and the Browns at 50%.  The rest of the teams vary from 55 to 60% passing, with the Bills towards the higher end at 57%.

 

A couple things stand out to me.  One is, the 49ers have the highest NY/A passing of these teams, suggesting that opponents defending the run really opens up the pass game for them.

 

Other than that, the run/pass % are all over the map for this year's top teams, suggesting there's not one "secret sauce", it depends on the skill sets of the players.

 

Overall, I agree with you that the Bills should perhaps be "pounding the rock" a bit more...the question is "how much more?" and the answer is not straightforward.  Obviously, we want enough of a run threat to prevent opposing Ds from pinning their ears back and attacking, but depending on what opponents do, a short passing game can contribute to the same effect.

 

 

 

[Buffalo716]

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

The Bills average 7.1 NY/A (pass yards-sack yards lost)/(pass attempts + sacks).  They average 4.4 YPC on rush attempts.

So...in theory, passing is a more efficient way to gain yards which is why explosive and high scoring offenses tend to pass a lot.

 

But...well here, let me see if I can pull some data

 

(click to enlarge)

 

These data are sorted by W, then PF.  % use (pass attempts + rush attempts)

 

We can see that currently, 2 of the top 10 teams rush more than they pass, Ravens and 49ers, with the Eagles close to and the Browns at 50%.  The rest of the teams vary from 55 to 60% passing, with the Bills towards the higher end at 57%.

 

A couple things stand out to me.  One is, the 49ers have the highest NY/A passing of these teams, suggesting that opponents defending the run really opens up the pass game for them.

 

Other than that, the run/pass % are all over the map for this year's top teams, suggesting there's not one "secret sauce", it depends on the skill sets of the players.

 

Overall, I agree with you that the Bills should perhaps be "pounding the rock" a bit more...the question is "how much more?" and the answer is not straightforward.  Obviously, we want enough of a run threat to prevent opposing Ds from pinning their ears back and attacking, but depending on what opponents do, a short passing game can contribute to the same effect.

 

 

 

To make it simple

 

I don't think it's necessarily always about pounding the rock more... It's about the timing of it and the effectiveness

 

If the bills can run the ball in the fourth quarter of games effectively with the lead... Can you keep the defense honest enough early in the games, to keep their run fits and not pin their ears back

 

I think it's going to come down to using the run game wiser... Not necessarily we need to run 50% of the time

 

But can you establish a rhythm early... And can you finish out a game when everybody knows you're going to run... If we could run in the 4th quarter with the lead... We will be hard to deal with

 

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Buffalo716