The Truth About the Bills Run Game

[colin]

i would have assumed we did better than that under center.

 

i still think we need to run under center more, mainly so we can have play action passes thrown, and to shake up the opponents d.

 

these easy money throws and runs are what we need to make our o look more like the old ne offense and less like a kid calling madden plays.  if allen can run an o like that, it's a freaking horror show to defend.  the jets are about the best zone/cover 2 type d in the nfl (maybe sanfran or clevland are better, but it is close) and after the body blows early and fg kicks set them up, the td drives followed.  tbh, we left meat on the bone in the entire 4th quarter too.

[Cash]

44 minutes ago, Long Suffering Fan said:

 

Great job, Hoof.  I appreciate this analysis.

 

If I were to quibble, I would say that it is not all shotgun runs in all situations that are the problem.  The ones that don't pass (my) eye test are ones to Cook, on a delay with him standing there, where he runs between the tackles.  Sometimes Josh even has to move toward Cook to give him the ball while he was standing there waiting for it. 

 

The same run is not as bad with other RBs and the one where Cook runs in front of Allen and takes the shotgun handoff also seems to be better.  I don't know if it is just because Cook is at his best when he has speed or that he is running outside.

 

 

This.  Even if you don't run the Tush Push, threatening it forces the defense to commit to stopping it.  Just going to shotgun in that situation seems counter intuitive...and we had a very obvious example where it failed spectactulary.

Agreed. I have zero problem with going shotgun on third or fourth and 3, or even 2. There’s still a threat to run, whether that’s a handoff or a QB run. It’s specifically 1 yard and in where I think it’s criminal to not be under center. We don’t have to sneak it every time, but I want the defense to have to defend the sneak every time.
 

Case in point: The recent game where we had a third or fourth and goal from about the half yard line, right as the quarter ended. They interviewed the opposing coach during the commercial break, and asked him what he thought we were going to do. His response: “I think the quarterback is going to run the ball.” Then we came out in shotgun and eliminated all threat of a sneak. Dumb. 

[HoofHearted]

4 hours ago, mabden said:

One of the things I noticed with the shotgun run calls, in this game, the running back came to Allen for the ball vs Allen going to the running back to hand off the ball.  IMO, (obviously) having the back moving to the ball, generates more momentum towards the LOS, than standing still waiting for Allen to get him the ball.

It’s done that way for timing purposes, not momentum.

[HoofHearted]

1 hour ago, Long Suffering Fan said:

This.  Even if you don't run the Tush Push, threatening it forces the defense to commit to stopping it.  Just going to shotgun in that situation seems counter intuitive...and we had a very obvious example where it failed spectactulary.

I don’t think it’s necessarily counter intuitive - it all depends what you’re trying to do out of it. There’s two lines of thinking when it gets that tight, either bring everyone into the box and try to mash or spread the defense out and play the light box. Additionally though the concept we ran from gun on the play you’re referring to is the same concept we line up and run from under center more often than not down there (Duo). Davis whiffed his block - it would have been stuffed if we ran it from under center too.

41 minutes ago, colin said:

i would have assumed we did better than that under center.

 

i still think we need to run under center more, mainly so we can have play action passes thrown, and to shake up the opponents d.

 

these easy money throws and runs are what we need to make our o look more like the old ne offense and less like a kid calling madden plays.  if allen can run an o like that, it's a freaking horror show to defend.  the jets are about the best zone/cover 2 type d in the nfl (maybe sanfran or clevland are better, but it is close) and after the body blows early and fg kicks set them up, the td drives followed.  tbh, we left meat on the bone in the entire 4th quarter too.

Jets hardly run Cover 2.

[GoBills808]

@HoofHearted

 

question about the first play of the second half Jets game

 

looks presnap Jets are in single high man w 8 man box, Bills offense 11 personnel w Davis inline blocking...do they not have a check for this? Or is Brown supposed to wrap instead of doubling there? Just hat for hat there's no way this works unless someone missed their assignment

 

EDIT maybe Torrence misplayed it actually

Edited November 21, 2023 by GoBills808

[HoofHearted]

43 minutes ago, Cash said:

Agreed. I have zero problem with going shotgun on third or fourth and 3, or even 2. There’s still a threat to run, whether that’s a handoff or a QB run. It’s specifically 1 yard and in where I think it’s criminal to not be under center. We don’t have to sneak it every time, but I want the defense to have to defend the sneak every time.
 

Case in point: The recent game where we had a third or fourth and goal from about the half yard line, right as the quarter ended. They interviewed the opposing coach during the commercial break, and asked him what he thought we were going to do. His response: “I think the quarterback is going to run the ball.” Then we came out in shotgun and eliminated all threat of a sneak. Dumb. 

The threat of QB run game is actually greater out of gun.

[BCAS Baritone]

20 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

 

Success Rate (SR) is a measure which adds context to our rushing data, something yards per carry does not. We define success rate as a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% of yards required on 3rd and 4th down. Dart, which also has the highest yards per carry average of 6.83 yards per carry also has the highest SR at 75.9%. This is clearly our most successful run concept. Dart has been primarily run out of Gun (27/29 attempts), and when run out of gun averages 7.07 yards per carry while only averaging 3.5 yards per carry while run from under center. Similarly, Inside Zone (our second most successful play at 66.7% SR and 4.48 ypc) has an 81% SR when run from Gun as opposed to 45.5% when under center.

 

So I can recall several runs out of shotgun that lost yardage, the most memorable one being against the Patriots* at the goal line.  Were all of those a different concept than Dart or Inside Zone?

 

Or put another way, if they are not "successful" by your measure (and I think your measure makes a lot of sense), how many are barely unsuccessful as opposed to genuinely negative (like losing yardage)?

 

[HoofHearted]

48 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

@HoofHearted

 

question about the first play of the second half Jets game

 

looks presnap Jets are in single high man w 8 man box, Bills offense 11 personnel w Davis inline blocking...do they not have a check for this? Or is Brown supposed to wrap instead of doubling there? Just hat for hat there's no way this works unless someone missed their assignment

 

EDIT maybe Torrence misplayed it actually

Mid Zone - number count was fine Torrence didn't climb to second level off of the double.

 

EDIT: Here's the scheme breakdown for you. Everyone's accounted for. I think a lot of fans get confused as to what "the box" is when we come out in these condensed sets. I've seen Joe Marino/Cover 1 do the same thing on their podcasts.

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by HoofHearted

[colin]

42 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

I don’t think it’s necessarily counter intuitive - it all depends what you’re trying to do out of it. There’s two lines of thinking when it gets that tight, either bring everyone into the box and try to mash or spread the defense out and play the light box. Additionally though the concept we ran from gun on the play you’re referring to is the same concept we line up and run from under center more often than not down there (Duo). Davis whiffed his block - it would have been stuffed if we ran it from under center too.

Jets hardly run Cover 2.

 sure, but they run zone, which dorsey never seemed to be able to beat.

[HoofHearted]

1 minute ago, colin said:

 sure, but they run zone, which dorsey never seemed to be able to beat.

Against the Jets specifically, sure. Calling an offense vs. zone wasn't the issue though - it's the dudes the Jets have on defense running it that's been the issue.

[GoBills808]

21 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Mid Zone - number count was fine Torrence didn't climb to second level off of the double. I can do a breakdown of it in a bit.

🤙🤙That would be awesome 

[colin]

8 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Against the Jets specifically, sure. Calling an offense vs. zone wasn't the issue though - it's the dudes the Jets have on defense running it that's been the issue.

 

ya, which is why they are the best IMO (altho i suppose clevland might be next level this season).  the fact that brady was able to have us use the tools we already had in the shed but eliminate the bad play/get free yards here and there is why i have a lot more confidence now.

 

davis and diggs didnt even get theirs, so if we can get that going as well i don't think there is a d in the nfl who can hold us under 30.

[HoofHearted]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

🤙🤙That would be awesome 

 

[Don Otreply]

The truth!!

 

This board can’t handle the truth!

 

GO  BILLS!!!

[WideNine]

23 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

THE TRUTH ABOUT THE BILLS RUN GAME

 

There's a lot of misconception about the Bills run game this season, most notable is the notion that the Bills are not successful running from the gun, that the Bills Zone Scheme run game is horrendous, and that the Bills should never run from gun in short yardage situations. I took the time to break down every run concept from Week 1 through Week 10 in order to take a deep dive and flesh out what's real and what's just national media and message board noise.

 

Through the first 10 weeks of the season it appears as though we hang our hat on 5 different run concepts. Three of those concepts being Zone blocking schemes (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, and Duo), one being a Gap blocking scheme (Dart), and one being Man blocking scheme (ISO). We've run each of these concepts at least 20 times on the season. In total we've run 21 different run concepts - 8 Zone (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, Duo, Sprint Draw, Split Zone, Zone Read, Q Draw, and Outside Zone), 9 Gap (Dart, Counter, Pin & Pull, Buck, Long Trap, Power, Q Dart, Q Counter, and Trap), and 2 Man (Iso and Base). All of our top 5 concepts except ISO average over 4 yards per carry but, more importantly, all of our top 5 run concepts have a Success Rate above 65%.

 

Success Rate (SR) is a measure which adds context to our rushing data, something yards per carry does not. We define success rate as a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% of yards required on 3rd and 4th down. Dart, which also has the highest yards per carry average of 6.83 yards per carry also has the highest SR at 75.9%. This is clearly our most successful run concept. Dart has been primarily run out of Gun (27/29 attempts), and when run out of gun averages 7.07 yards per carry while only averaging 3.5 yards per carry while run from under center. Similarly, Inside Zone (our second most successful play at 66.7% SR and 4.48 ypc) has an 81% SR when run from Gun as opposed to 45.5% when under center.

 

The Bills are Not Successful Running from Gun

 

Overall, this season we've run 83 times from under center for an average of 5.06 yards per carry and a SR of 54.2% and 123 times from gun for an average of 4.5 yards per carry and a SR of 61.0%. So we are more successful when running from the gun than we are running from under center. When you look at the splits the only time we've been more successful running from under center than gun has been on 2nd and medium (4-7).

 

The Bills Zone Scheme Run Game is Not Good

 

Overall, Zone and Gap have the exact same SR (57.4%). Man schemes have the highest SR at 66.7% which is to be expected because it's run most in short yardage situations where the yardage to gain is easier to attain. Specifically our Inside Zone and Duo concepts, which were ripped in some video that made its rounds around here a few days ago, are both averaging about 4.5 yards per carry or better and a SR of over 60%. The notion that these two schemes have been detrimental to our run game are just false.

 

The Bills Should Never Run from the Gun in Short Yardage Situations

 

In Down and 0-3 yards to go situations the Bills have run from under center 18 times for 4.89 yards per carry and a 66.7% SR while running from gun 30 times for a 5.03 yards per carry average and an 80% SR. Specifically looking at 3rd down situations the numbers still favor running from gun though the samples are admittedly small from under center (Under Center: 3 for 2.67 and 66.7% SR | Gun: 15 for 2.87 and 80% SR).

 

Overall Thoughts

 

It's clear to me from watching the film and going through the data that we have been successful running both out of gun and under center this year. All these rumors being spread by national media and message board members that we should not be in gun or should not be running zone schemes are just rumors. Obviously, scheme is very dependent on what you will see from your opponent, but the data shows that the Bills are establishing a clear identity as to what they want to do in the run game and where they think their strengths lie as a team. What was frustrating was going back and seeing how many times drive stalled out because we refused to run the football even after statistically successful run attempts. This has been one of the biggest components in why our offense has struggled over the last however many weeks.

 

 

Thanks for this breakdown.

I have thought that the Bills usually do a pretty good job running the ball and mixing it up. The issues have been how they have oddly abandoned it for long stretches when they are winning up front and gashing opposing teams.

 

There were times we got stuffed or TFL, but seemed we ran straight into number disadvantages and never checked out of those plays.

 

Suspect those had more to do with the lack of effective in-game offensive staff communication that McD indicated had improved this last game.

 

Regarding runs from under center, as you mentioned I would like to see more near the goal line before drawing any conclusions, but think there is also an advantage of Allen potentially sneaking on those too that you lose from shotgun.

Allen's good use of play action from under center has been more my contention for leaning into it.

 

He hides the ball better, and tends to hit the back foot on his drop and be decisive with getting the ball out on schedule...

 

They don't have to feature it, but mixing in a bit more in I think would be beneficial.

Excited to see how Brady uses our run playbook as I already really like his use of motion creating space for getting the running backs more involved in the passing game.

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by WideNine

[colin]

this all looks like more evidence of what we knew about our coaching, dorsey especially.

 

namely, that they seem to have some monday to saturday ability, cook up some good stuff, but when it comes to serving on sunday, they call goofy blitzes back to back, run from shotty at the 1 yard line, etc etc.  not a great feel for the game (much worse on O than D prior to brady coming in), like pouring the chocolate sauce that is perfect for dessert on the salmon steak entre.

[HoofHearted]

17 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Great stuff.

 

It’s been debunked that the bills can’t run. The issue is more so that they don’t run, or haven’t when they possibly should have.

 

Two other splits of interest:

 

How has success rate changed based on RB? Cook played roughly half the snaps last week. Is this guy really that bad in pass pro or are they just trying to save his legs a bit? He can be electric with the ball in his hands but why the handcuff? Murray is no slouch and Ty Johnson came out of no where, but I think it’s fair to ask more of a 2nd round pick who we all thought would be a work horse. 
 

How has personnel effected success rate in the ground game? Are we significantly better out of 11, 12, 21 or even with David Edwards as the 6th OL?

 

Thanks for the data and explaination!

 

I didn't track personnel as I went through this, but I'm sure there are some people on here who have access to advanced stats who can get that split. As far as SR by player:

 

Allen - 71.4%

Harris -66.7%

Cook - 57.5%

Murray - 56.9%

 

The rotation I'm sure is to keep Cook fresh. 

[HoofHearted]

14 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

OK I had to sit back and digest a bit.

 

I have a couple of questions.  You mention top 5 run concepts, but then 16 other run concepts (21 total). 

1) just to help me contextualize, do you know or can you estimate how frequent the "top 5" are vs the others? 

2) again to help me contextualize, any estimate about what success rate the other concepts have, again, aggregate?

3) I think this is an important ask to some here - any different success ratio in the red zone?  I think there has been a lot of angst on this board about shotgun run play calls in a 'goal to go' situation.  Since the defense is condensed in this situation, it seems to me the success could be affected?

 

I hope these are straightforward asks, I don't mean to be a PITA looking at a massive data endeavor and saying "please Sir can I have some more?" 🥣

 

Last Q just curious, what video is this which ripped our Inside Zone and Duo?

 

Thanks! 

 

 

OVERALL DATA SET

 

OVERALL DATA SET (Center/Gun Split)

 

 

REDZONE SR (20 & In)

 

ONE YARD LINE SR

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by HoofHearted

[Nephilim17]

22 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

What was frustrating was going back and seeing how many times drive stalled out because we refused to run the football even after statistically successful run attempts. This has been one of the biggest components in why our offense has struggled over the last however many weeks.

HH, thanks for the deep dive here. Can you give a rough idea of how many times a game you'd like to run the ball and perhaps numbers just for Cook? Do you believe he's too small to be a feature back? 

 

Many people here think with JA throwing you don't need to run a lot and it's a "waste" of snaps. Do you agree?

 

Thanks.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, HoofHearted said:

Mid Zone - number count was fine Torrence didn't climb to second level off of the double.

 

EDIT: Here's the scheme breakdown for you. Everyone's accounted for. I think a lot of fans get confused as to what "the box" is when we come out in these condensed sets. I've seen Joe Marino/Cover 1 do the same thing on their podcasts.

 

ty 🤙

 

so Torrence just wasn't able to get to the second level but the numbers were right

 

one more question specific to this play, what does Diggs playside motion accomplish here?

Torrence looks kind of unsure of himself in zone blocks vs Jets