Outlook on McDermott if we turn it around

[Einstein]

20 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, my bad, for some odd reason I thought that they were still determining games by the number of points scored.  I hadn't realized that they changed that.  

 

Hence my having said Scoring D.  

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/defense/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/asc

 

 

It’s a common mistake.

 

Using points per game as the sole determination for who has the best defense has several faults. 

 

1) Lack of Context: This metric doesn't account for the quality of the offenses faced. A defense might have low points allowed because they played weaker offenses, not necessarily because they are a strong defense.

 

2) The Offense: A defense will allow more points in games if their offense can’t sustain drives, which increases the time the defense is on the field.

 

3) Turnovers: If a team has a terrible offense (like the Jets), and turns the ball over a lot in their own territory, that sets the defense up to defend fields where the opponents offense is already in scoring range. What does that result in? More points allowed.

 

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

It’s a common mistake.

 

Using points per game as the sole determination for who has the best defense has several faults. 

 

1) Lack of Context: This metric doesn't account for the quality of the offenses faced. A defense might have low points allowed because they played weaker offenses, not necessarily because they are a strong defense.

 

2) The Offense: A defense will allow more points in games if their offense can’t sustain drives, which increases the time the defense is on the field.

 

3) Turnovers: If a team has a terrible offense (like the Jets), and turns the ball over a lot in their own territory, that sets the defense up to defend fields where the opponents offense is already in scoring range. What does that result in? More points allowed.

 

 

I understand all that.  There's no single metric that encompasses exactly how good a D is.  

 

Having said what you said, the converse is also true.  Which is why we should not use this game as a significant indicator as to future performance.  i.e., vs. teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, or even @Miami the second time.  

 

We'll have another edge against the Eagles on Sunday, as they're playing out west tonight.  

 

 

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I understand all that.  There's no single metric that encompasses exactly how good a D is.  

 

That’s actually what the PFF metric aims to do.

And it has the Jets #1.

 

Which matches my eye test.

[BuffaloRebound]

McDermott gotta be better in end of game situations to get over the hump.  Have to think at least 3 or 4 of remaining 6 games will come down the last possession.  

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

That’s actually what the PFF metric aims to do.

And it has the Jets #1.

 

Which matches my eye test.

 

Yes, I understand that.  

 

Thre's still no way to do it despite the try. 

 

As you said, having the Jets' D on the field for nearly 40 minutes takes a toll.  The eye test even said so yesterday.  

 

There's not one team on our remaining schedule against which we can expect that luxury.  

 

 

[Chaos]

43 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

That’s actually what the PFF metric aims to do.

And it has the Jets #1.

 

Which matches my eye test.

I agree with the PFF metrics. However having the #1 defense, according to pff play by play analysis, is rather meaningless if your offense is turning the ball over four times giving the opponent good field position.  

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Chaos

[Einstein]

24 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I agree with the PFF metrics. However having the #1 defense, according to pff play by play analysis, is rather meaningless if your offense is turning the ball over four times giving the opponent good field position.  

 

 

Yeah the Jets issue is obviously that awful offense.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

That’s actually what the PFF metric aims to do.

And it has the Jets #1.

 

Which matches my eye test.

That’s why I look at averages per drive. Accounts for short fields mostly, and smooths out the points allowed off TO’s.

 

coincidentally, Jets are top 4 in points allowed per drive and yards allowed per drive. With an offense dead last in time per drive. 
 

Jets D is pretty close to elite if not the best in the NFL.

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That’s why I look at averages per drive. Accounts for short fields mostly, and smooths out the points allowed off TO’s.

 

coincidentally, Jets are top 4 in points allowed per drive and yards allowed per drive. With an offense dead last in time per drive. 
 

Jets D is pretty close to elite if not the best in the NFL.

 

Yep.

[Big Blitz]

My take is McD needs to be replaced with an OC as HC.  Nothing is going to change my mind unless he makes the playoffs.  I couldn’t fire him then considering the injuries on D.  But I don’t expect that.  The losses this year as I watch the AFC disintegrate are just infuriating now.  
 

I don’t need to see this defense at home dominate the Mike Whites and Skyler Thompson Davis Mills Zach Wilson Kenny Picketts of the world anymore.  I don’t care. 

 

But my belief is if the offense gets “fixed” the McD-Brady-NewDC leads the clubhouse for likely coaching setup in 2024.  
 

I won’t hate it.  If they believe Brady is on to something.  But I don’t trust this staff anymore.  The Diggs drama should have been and probably is the biggest red flag.  
 

And if successful we’ll be looking for a new OC in 2025.  Lot more pressure to win and stay healthy next season.  I’d like a new voice to lead it. 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Big Blitz

[MrEpsYtown]

I think he needs to turn this around and get to the AFC championship to keep his job. To dig all the way out of the hole and fail in the playoffs makes it a no in my opinion. 

[GerstAusGosheim]

Remember when the O only scored 10 points in the playoffs against Cincinnati – yet, everyone blamed Leslie?

 

If this team continues to look significantly better under Brady, then one could argue Sean cost us a chance at the last two Super Bowls. 

 

 

 

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

McD can go from McDummy to McGenius if he finds a way to split these next 2 games, or even wins both.

 

But obviously have my doubts that's going to happen and better chance this team reverts back to what we've seen all year especially on the road where they've been dreadful for the most part minus the WFT game (and offense still wasn't great in that one either).

[T master]

I unlike many others here like the job McD has done since being here ! He has turned this team from a perennial loser to a perennial winner seems to always be in the hunt . Because of that he has a also helped to secure a brand new state of the art stadium for WNY & the Bills .

 

If you look at any winning HC's it takes a lot almost perfection to get to the big game & win many really good teams stumble but as they say you have to be in it to win it & if your not in the play offs constantly you will never have a chance at the prize ! 

 

This season has been a tough one in a lot of different ways for the coaching staff to over come these certain situations they have been faced with but i have faith again unlike others here that McD will get ur done !! 

 

GO BILLS !! 

[PBF81]

On 11/20/2023 at 12:38 AM, AuntieEm said:

Not even the most anti McDermott fan will call for his head if the Bills turn around their past shortcoming seasons and win the SB.  They still may not like him as the coach but the results would warrant not messing with what works.  And winning  the SB would work for all Bills fans I'm sure.

 

If McD wins the Super Bowl, I'll go personally wash his f'n car!  

 

 

[jester43]

if sean mctroops was capable ofwinning a super bowl it would have happened already.  but no, i never want them to lose.

[chongli]

12 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

McD can go from McDummy to McGenius if he finds a way to split these next 2 games, or even wins both.

 

But obviously have my doubts that's going to happen and better chance this team reverts back to what we've seen all year especially on the road where they've been dreadful for the most part minus the WFT game (and offense still wasn't great in that one either).

 

Strange, you also said yesterday you have a feeling the Bills will beat Philadelphia:

 

[You're also following 666 people on twitter with the "Beast" in your name. Hmmm...probably just coincidence.]

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by chongli

[FilthyBeast]

11 hours ago, chongli said:

 

Strange, you also said yesterday you have a feeling the Bills will beat Philadelphia:

 

[You're also following 666 people on twitter with the "Beast" in your name. Hmmm...probably just coincidence.]

 

 

I'm still leaning this way even though the Bills road record this year has been horrendous but sometimes weird things happen in this league and Eagles are going to be very overconfident heading into this game. Key will be jumping on them early I think which is also going to be against the norm for this Bills team and offense this year.

 

Also I never noticed the follower thing but I don't like the 666 number so will have to start following some other people....

[The Red King]

No.  I thought Dorsey and McD were problems.  It doesn't have to be one or the other.  Firing Dorsey solved one problem and yielded immediate results.  I still think McD flounders with late-game decisions, which remains concerning.

[BullBuchanan]

On 11/19/2023 at 11:17 PM, Mikie2times said:

The better we perform in the short term, the more likely we will maintain the status quo in the long term. I don't see any way that isn't the case. It was already a long shot that we would part ways with McDermott after this year. It was going to take an implosion on the trajectory of what we had seen prior to Dorsey being canned. If they turn it around and threaten the playoffs it's not going to happen. 

 

Do some of you feel strongly enough about McDermott to actual want this thing to implode for the greater good? Do some of you feel if we can somehow get back on track to make the playoffs that it would alter your view on him as the coach next year? Curious what the outlook is on this. 

McD making the playoffs will have zero impact on my opinion of him. We already know that he can make the playoffs, and we also know that he struggles once he gets there. The latter is the part that concerns me. What happens from September-January is immaterial because I expect the Bills to make the playoffs every year. That's table stakes. Can he win a Super Bowl? I previously said it was only possible if Mahomes, Burrow and Hurts went down. Still 2 to go.