Dalton Kincaid: Beane's best pick since Allen?

[wppete]

Right now after week 11 he has:

 

51 receptions - 436 Yards - 2 TD

 

And he is just warming up and Josh trusts him now. I can see 80 receptions for 800 yards after the regular season. Would be an amazing rookie year. 

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by wppete

[Chandler#81]

19 hours ago, Success said:

He gets separation, has great hands, and very good YAC.  Mismatch for opposing D's, and when Knox comes back will be even more of a threat.

 

I see a guy w/ potential to be like Kelce.  Not AS good, since Kelce is the GOAT or close to it - but the same kind of 24x7 outlet for Allen.

 

Thoughts?

 

I agree completely except he’s our new TE1. If we’re not running 11 personnel, Knox takes a seat. He’s still not trustworthy enough.

[BillsShredder83]

8 hours ago, Since1981 said:

The Kincaid block spin move…FINALLY a player self aware that he need only “get in the way” far down field and it’s a non penalty block !

Loved it! Great vision and being creative. 0 chance for penalty and if he tries to lock someone up, risk of penalty pluuuuus there's no way he knocks all 3 out. Been seeing OL doing this kinda thing to avoid brutal blocks that will get flagged

 

Oh or the OL is behind pursuer and just gets in front a bit and stops, back to tackler. So simple but love seeing smart football like that to combat today's soft rules

[Dukestreetking]

[With apologies, I'm pulling The Richard move and cross-posting this from PGT. Seems more relevant here]

 

Carrying discussion of #86 a little further; nothing profound, but...

 

[1] Bills, or at least TBD, hoped for a "Beasley replacement", primarily as a sure-handed, go-to target/outlet, as well as a chain mover.

 

Conclusion: obviously only a rookie but he's getting there more quickly than I personally anticipated. 

 

[2] Top 5 TEs by reception totals are Hock, Engram, Kelce, Kincaid, LaPorta.

 

Normalizing for # targets, etc, it's interesting to look at Rec:Tgt (sure-handed), FD:Tgt (chain mover) ratios, along w Yac/Rec just for s&g.

 

H:    73.5; 39.2; 3.69

E:     79.7; 27.0; 5.17

Ke:   79.1; 41.7; 4.89

Ki:   87.9; 36.2; 4.29

L:    72.4; 36.2; 3.92

 

Reasonably favorable comparisons imv.**

 

[3] Looking at Beasley 2020, arguably his best year, he had 76.6 target success (Kincaid now at 87.9) and an incredible FD:Tgt rate of .495!! Again, Reuben not there yet, but looking the part.

 

**Realize many other issues on the table: TDs, explosive plays, yds/rec, etc. The data here are admittedly self-selective.

[Pete]

2 hours ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

So you disagreed with me that Dawson Knox is a bad contract?  Interesting 

I say Knox is a great third round pick, and adds a lot to the Bills.  Bills were smashing teams playing 12 personal.  Knox gets hurt, Bills offense slumps and we go to 5-5. 

 

Brady has already shown he is craftier and more adept than Dorsey.  Wait until Brady game plans with Knox and 12 personal!

Edited November 20, 2023 by Pete

[Alphadawg7]

20 hours ago, Success said:

He gets separation, has great hands, and very good YAC.  Mismatch for opposing D's, and when Knox comes back will be even more of a threat.

 

I see a guy w/ potential to be like Kelce.  Not AS good, since Kelce is the GOAT or close to it - but the same kind of 24x7 outlet for Allen.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

Beane has made a lot of very good picks, so it may be a tad early to label Kincaid the 2nd best just yet.  However, he is certainly trending that way.  But Oliver is in that convo, but also guys like Cook, Bernard, Benford, etc have great cases given where he found those picks too.  Kincaid is supposed to be a stud, those guys were after thoughts by most people here and are very good players for us now.  

 

[HappyDays]

I appreciate that from day one he has been a total pro. I think he must have had a very good upbringing with great parents and coaches because he is always completely engaged on every play from start to finish even if he isn't directly involved. That attitude in my experience is not inherent, it's something drilled into you from a young age. The 3-man block on Shakir's TD is one example that's been pointed out. Another good one is last week against the Broncos on Allen's TD run, when Kincaid saw Allen was starting to run he flashed his hands in a catching position just to hold his defender a tick longer to give Allen more space. He's the definition of a gamer.

 

Crazy thing is he didn't start playing football until late in life, senior year of high school if I recall correctly, so he still has so much room to grow as a player.

[BillsShredder83]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I appreciate that from day one he has been a total pro. I think he must have had a very good upbringing with great parents and coaches because he is always completely engaged on every play from start to finish even if he isn't directly involved. That attitude in my experience is not inherent, it's something drilled into you from a young age. The 3-man block on Shakir's TD is one example that's been pointed out. Another good one is last week against the Broncos on Allen's TD run, when Kincaid saw Allen was starting to run he flashed his hands in a catching position just to hold his defender a tick longer to give Allen more space. He's the definition of a gamer.

 

Crazy thing is he didn't start playing football until late in life, senior year of high school if I recall correctly, so he still has so much room to grow as a player.

Great post. Last paragraph is wild. Wonder If he did anything else. Seems like a lot of nfl ers have wrestling backgrounds. Just curious. Dudes a stud, and motivated to impress. Looks like he came in knowing, he's basically not been asked to block as a criticism.

 

Dude came out looking willing as hell to initiate contact, a guy that wants to turn a weakness into a strength. Sure I want him running around like kelce, but hard to not get fired up seeing him fly around being the most eager blocker on the field. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Milano was a McDermott pick, not a Beane one. 

 

 

I think Kincaid and Cook are really good. The positives of this season are those two and Bernard IMO. 

I like the player. But not at the draft capital they invested for him to only be churning out 50% of snaps at this point. 

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Wonder If he did anything else. Seems like a lot of nfl ers have wrestling backgrounds. Just curious.

 

He originally played basketball. He apparently joined his high school football team because his friends dared him to and the rest is history. Basketball players transitioning to TE is not an uncommon story.

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, wppete said:

Right now after week 11 he has:

 

51 receptions - 436 Yards - 2 TD

 

And he is just warming up and Josh trusts him now. I can see 80 receptions for 800 yards after the regular season. Would be an amazing rookie year. 

 

This reminds me….. @FireChans

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, wppete said:

Right now after week 11 he has:

 

51 receptions - 436 Yards - 2 TD

 

And he is just warming up and Josh trusts him now. I can see 80 receptions for 800 yards after the regular season. Would be an amazing rookie year. 

 

 

 

He would need nearly a 50%  jump in yards per reception in the final 6 games........basically producing like Travis Kelce in 2020-2022........to get to 80 for 800.    

 

That's going to be a tall order with the schedule in front of them.

 

I loved the draft pick and he's been excellent for a rookie but at a paltry 8.5 yards per reception the training wheels haven't really been taken off yet.  

 

Looking forward to the point in the future where he's able to be used more downfield like the TD play against Denver.

 

 

[FireChans]

27 minutes ago, NewEra said:

This reminds me….. @FireChans

What were the stakes again lol

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What were the stakes again lol

My $200 to your $50 🤣 

[HappyDays]

47 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

He would need nearly a 50%  jump in yards per reception in the final 6 games........basically producing like Travis Kelce in 2020-2022........to get to 80 for 800.    

 

That's going to be a tall order with the schedule in front of them.

 

I loved the draft pick and he's been excellent for a rookie but at a paltry 8.5 yards per reception the training wheels haven't really been taken off yet.  

 

Looking forward to the point in the future where he's able to be used more downfield like the TD play against Denver.

 

 

 

I was expecting some seam routes from him this year. Those are cover 2 and cover 3 beaters which we see all the time and Allen throws one of the prettiest seams I've ever seen. Maybe they will start working those in down the stretch now that he's gotten his feet underneath him.

[AlfaBill]

On 11/19/2023 at 6:37 PM, Whkfc said:

As I just said in another thread. I love Kincaid I think he will be a top 3 TE for the next 8 to 10 years. He could be the next Kelsey. He has it all size speed and hands

Kelsey Grammer? Kelsey Clinton? 

[Whkfc]

6 hours ago, AlfaBill said:

Kelsey Grammer? Kelsey Clinton? 

Yes I miss spelled. Was the point lost because of it? 

[Chandler#81]

On 11/19/2023 at 8:37 PM, Billzgobowlin said:

What about Benford and Bernard.  They are looking like good picks

Yeah, this is a silly, not well thought out thread by an obvious hater with an axe to grind. Brandon may not be another Bobby Beathard, but he’s no Bill Belichek either. All Drafts are crap shoots. But he manages to find treasures under the rocks that supplement the team every year. He’s also selected a few studs that got ‘stolen’ from our practice squad as they learned how to be pro players. Nothing to see here.

[Kirby Jackson]

I don’t really want to rank guys vs. guys at other positions. It’s just kind of weird to compare Dalton Kincaid to Taron Johnson for example. 
 

With that being said Kincaid was a really good pick. He was a blue-chip prospect that filled a need. The Bills got a guy that looks exactly like the guy that they drafted him to be. He is one of the best TEs in the league right now. Kincaid will play a huge role on this team moving forward. That was the goal when they selected him. He was a fantastic pick.

[wppete]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

He would need nearly a 50%  jump in yards per reception in the final 6 games........basically producing like Travis Kelce in 2020-2022........to get to 80 for 800.    

 

That's going to be a tall order with the schedule in front of them.

 

I loved the draft pick and he's been excellent for a rookie but at a paltry 8.5 yards per reception the training wheels haven't really been taken off yet.  

 

Looking forward to the point in the future where he's able to be used more downfield like the TD play against Denver.

 

 

I can see it happening. His numbers and targets have gone up the last 3 weeks and now Josh trusts him and looks for him. I can see an average of  5-8 catches a game and 60-70 yards a game for the remainder games.