Time to rewrite the Conventional Wisdom on the playoff loss to Bengals--and the new CW on Dorsey too

[JohnNord]

2 minutes ago, Peter said:

 

I have to go pick up my kids. I do not have time to look now, but my recollection is that the primary problem we had was turnovers as well as the attempt to change Josh's style of play.

 

We will just agree to disagree on Dorsey. I do appreciate the civil discourse with you on this subject.

Yep it’s ok to see things differently.  We tend to forget that here.  

[Niagara Dude]

On 11/19/2023 at 2:12 PM, Mister Defense said:

Last year it quickly became conventional wisdom by many in the media, locally and nationally, that the Bills were simply emotionally and physically spent, and that is why they were dominated by the Bengals in Buffalo, at High Mark Stadium. The story went something like this: the tragedy in Buffalo, the loss of Knox’s brother, the snow storms, and the Hamlin incident all were too much for the Bills, and that is why the Bengals handled them so easily, the reason the Bills were not even in the game.  ‘They look exhausted’, we heard during and after the game. That take became the CW across the country, although I don’t think the Bills thought that was the reason.

 

But I and others didn’t think that was the reason in any way for the Bills performance. That is not because of a lack of empathy, but I thought this was a tough, resilient team, Buffalo Strong, and that if anything, the surprisingly quick recovery of Hamlin was like the weight of the world being lifted off the team’s, and Buffalo’s, shoulders.

 

The problem was that they had an incompetent offensive coordinator, who the league was slowly coming to terms with as the season progressed.  We saw with our own eyes, if we were paying attention, that he was extremely poor at even the most fundamental of OC duties:

 

o   Did not seem to have game plan specific plans prepared for the game that would help to facilitate things against defenses….

o   He did know how to make in game changes to overcome what the defense was doing, seemed to have no  plan for those things…

o   Did not utilize the running game well, using it arbitrarily, with almost no connection to the passing game. As  Gregg Cosell said several times last year: “There is no synchronicity between the Bills' running and passing game”.  This in itself, to me, was a reason Dorsey could not be permitted to return for this season...

o   Did not call plays that made sense, repeatedly, and often was clueless as to what a good rhythm in play calling meant

o   He did not use his personnel effectively, not getting the most out of the players on the offense.

o   And awful use of formations to facilitate things for the offense,  with extremely limited use of motion, and with so little use of Allen under center and play action, despite the fact that the Bills excelled when using those three things…

 

Etcetera--but those are only some of the big, obvious things. Imagine how Dorsey dealt with the equally important smaller details that make an offense work. I cannot imagine how bad those details were if he had no clue related to the big, obvious problems even laymen like us saw.

 

Even one of those defects means that there would be significant obstacles placed in front of the offense—rather than facilitating things, Dorsey was doing the opposite, placing big obstacles in front of his talented players.  But add up all of the obstacles and they became insurmountable. That is what happened this year, clearly.  And the fish then rotted from the head, as the players tried to overcome their grossly incompetent OC.

 

This year, as the offense became Dorsey's alone, and the heavy lift from last year became their identity, of course the play of the players, even of the best Bills, was going to decline. They were operating in a fundamentally flawed offense, one that could often not even move the ball, and one that caused them to fall behind in game after game. Players, already going into the game with Dorsey's huge obstacles in front of them, now were faced with coming back against teams, teams that seemed to know the Bills extremely limited repertoire of plays by heart, causing the Bills to look sloppy, inept, turn the ball over, and causing them to lose their confidence.

 

Our tough, resilient team was not exhausted in the playoff game, and not against the Jaguars this year because of jet lag…. they were UNPREPARED to play well, let alone win-- shocked, defeated before they even walked on the field, as defenses, especially the good ones, like the Bengals, had come to terms with how fundamentally flawed this offense was.  And this year it had become common place, with an offense Dan Orlosvky said was “outrageously predictable” and “the easiest offense in the NFL to defend”.  Our recently great, feared offense now the easiest to defend in the NFL? THAT is why the Bills looked so shocked and confused in that playoff game--and we then saw those same faces this year, over and over and over. This is why Michael Robinson bravely called for a change in the OC position before the Bills' Thursday night game, one of the few to dare speak the truth on national television.

 

Good head coaches and defensive coordinators have been like fat kids in a free candy store, drooling and licking their chops, at how easy this very poorly coached offense would be to stop now, despite several elite players and a history of them dominating defenses. This became clearer and clearer.

 

What happened the next time we saw the starters on the field in the preseason, how did they do?  No points(?)  scored in the entire half of that preseason game. This was yet another canary in the coal mine for all of us understanding how fundamentally poor Dorsey was at his job. Even in a preseason game his players were unprepared, could not get first downs, could not score.  (I kept thinking--what will happen when they play good defenses in the NFL this year--or even mediocre ones?) And the look on the players' faces?--shocked again, and with no answers. Just like they looked against the Bengals in their previous game.

 

The CW at the time? Just a preseason game, meaningless, as this is going to be a great offense, a “wrecking crew”, as Steve Tasker called them. And then, of course, this was what we would see this season, as that became their identity.

 

So let's not accept any longer that CW from last January or now from so many on the Dorsey firing.  The new CW?  Dorsey was a scapegoat, a fall guy, that Allen is to blame, or the other players, and Dorsey should not have been fired, especially in the middle of the season. That this cannot be done now, is almost never the answer, is going to make the Bills worse...  

 

But the CW is wrong again, of course.  The Bills were likely not going to beat any of the good teams they are yet to play this year with Dorsey in charge, as they were the worst coached offense in the NFL, turning our once great offense into a crap heap.  The only hope to save the season was to get Dorsey out of there.

 

Now, hopefully there is time for the Bills to show who they really are.  It may be hard to rebound quickly from the mess Dorsey alone created, but I think they will, and prove the latest CW wrong--and last year's too.   No dominant teams in the AFC this year, and now we may be able to see what the Josh Allen led Bills are really made of...again.

 

 
 

 

No our defence was trash that day

[hondo in seattle]

15 hours ago, JohnNord said:

The Cover 1 crew did a great job challenging Warner’s criticism of Josh.  
 

The problem with Warner’s criticism is that he doesn’t completely understand the style of play from of non-conventions QB’s like Josh.  Warner tends to be partial to QB’s who play the same way he did as a passer - which was throwing with timing and anticipation.   He constantly advocated for Josh to check the ball down in his analysis.  Josh largely did this early in the season and it essentially neutered some of the things he did well.
 

If anything Dorsey’s offense showed us this season, it’s that Josh isn’t meant to be the type of QB that takes three steps and checks the ball down to the receiver 3 yards away.  Like Mahomes, part of his game is playing off schedule.   

The problem last season is that it seemed like everything Allen did was off schedule resulting in a boom or bust result.  
 

Obviously, the key is finding balance between moving the sticks and taking a deep shot.  Allen never found that answer with Dorsey, hopefully it something Brady can bring out of him.  

 

I'm not sure about if Warner doesn't completely understand Josh's style of play.  It would be hard to convince me that a QB with Warner's background and intelligence doesn't understand something about NFL quarterbacking that we fans understand.  

I've heard Warner say that Josh can be Josh some of the times.  But when the play is designed to go to a certain guy - and he's open - why wait to see if something better opens up when defenders are collapsing the pocket?  I don't think Warner is unreasonable when he suggests: Play superman when you need to but otherwise execute the play as designed.  

 

As you say, it's about finding balance.  I think Warner would agree with that.  But his balancing point is different than Josh's (in practice if not in theory).  

 

I think it's interesting that Josh has been playing more Warner-like since Brady took over.  I thought it was odd that Warner never considered that coaching had something to do with Allen's occasional poor decision-making.   Let's see if the less risky/greedy/impatient Allen comes out again in tough games.  

 

 

 

 

[JohnNord]

36 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I'm not sure about if Warner doesn't completely understand Josh's style of play.  It would be hard to convince me that a QB with Warner's background and intelligence doesn't understand something about NFL quarterbacking that we fans understand.  

I've heard Warner say that Josh can be Josh some of the times.  But when the play is designed to go to a certain guy - and he's open - why wait to see if something better opens up when defenders are collapsing the pocket?  I don't think Warner is unreasonable when he suggests: Play superman when you need to but otherwise execute the play as designed.  

 

As you say, it's about finding balance.  I think Warner would agree with that.  But his balancing point is different than Josh's (in practice if not in theory).  

 

I think it's interesting that Josh has been playing more Warner-like since Brady took over.  I thought it was odd that Warner never considered that coaching had something to do with Allen's occasional poor decision-making.   Let's see if the less risky/greedy/impatient Allen comes out again in tough games.  

 

 

 

 

A lot of people have made that Josh - I just feel that in his film analysis Warner advocates for Josh to take the check down quite a bit.  That’s the type of QB Warner was - so he’s partial to that style of play.  If Josh followed Warner’s advice you’d see a higher completion percentage, less INT’s, but also more drives that end without points.  
 

In fact we saw this style a bit this season in the Dorsey offense and that’s exactly how it played out.  

[Desert Bills Fan]

Can the folks in WNY verify any of this:

the rumors out there are that before the Bengals playoff game was when Josh’s girlfriend was breaking up/ moving out. Police were called to his house due to the fighting going on. Josh was physically and emotionally drained by game time….Steph Diggs knew this and was in Josh’s face on the sideline to get his head out of his but and lead this team to a win…

 

anyone know? Brother in police that was there, etc.

[JohnNord]

39 minutes ago, Desert Bills Fan said:

Can the folks in WNY verify any of this:

the rumors out there are that before the Bengals playoff game was when Josh’s girlfriend was breaking up/ moving out. Police were called to his house due to the fighting going on. Josh was physically and emotionally drained by game time….Steph Diggs knew this and was in Josh’s face on the sideline to get his head out of his but and lead this team to a win…

 

anyone know? Brother in police that was there, etc.

No one knows… this was a rumor on Twitter by someone who later deleted their account…so what does that tell you?  
 

[ToGoGo]

39 minutes ago, Desert Bills Fan said:

Can the folks in WNY verify any of this:

the rumors out there are that before the Bengals playoff game was when Josh’s girlfriend was breaking up/ moving out. Police were called to his house due to the fighting going on. Josh was physically and emotionally drained by game time….Steph Diggs knew this and was in Josh’s face on the sideline to get his head out of his but and lead this team to a win…

 

anyone know? Brother in police that was there, etc.

This was the rumor over the summer. The rumor actually started in OP and I know of people close to the department who confirmed it, but then again they’re not in the department so who knows. 
 

On this site, even if it was true, nobody will admit it. Which is actually a good thing. 
 

My thoughts are, there is probably some truth in it. But let’s move on. Anybody who has ever been in a toxic relationship knows that these things happen and are a part of life. 

42 minutes ago, Desert Bills Fan said:

Can the folks in WNY verify any of this:

the rumors out there are that before the Bengals playoff game was when Josh’s girlfriend was breaking up/ moving out. Police were called to his house due to the fighting going on. Josh was physically and emotionally drained by game time….Steph Diggs knew this and was in Josh’s face on the sideline to get his head out of his but and lead this team to a win…

 

anyone know? Brother in police that was there, etc.

I’ll also add that events like this, and all the other difficult things that happened last year may have saved Dorsey’s job and took the miscroscope off him during the offseason. 
 

At least until Diggs lost his cool during training camp. 

[Mister Defense]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:48 AM, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Yeah the quality of athlete increased, that’s the difference.

 

Instead of taking 4.66 backs out of Florida Atlantic, 4.65 “business decisions” out of Utah, leaning on 35-year old Frank Gore, recycled guys like TJ Yeldon and Matt Breida - the Bills got a 4.41 talent with NFL pedigree out of a National Championship winning program.

 

We stunk at running the ball because the line was scabbed together and our running backs were slow. 

 

But our two running backs last year did a great job--when they were allowed to run, which often was not part of any strategic plan, part of the natural rhythm of an offense, or with any real other real purpose.   Dorsey just did it because you're supposed to run some time, the the mind of an incompetent OC  who did not have almost any clue. (Hope an AFC East team hires him for any kind of coaching position soon...)

 

Last year Cook averaged 5.7 yards a carry,  more than this year's 5.2 and Singletarry, no longer on this team, replaced by the mighty and still always available Damien Harris,  one of Beane's biggest mistakes this off season and ever, averaged 4.6 yards a carry.  Now that the Texans realize, like Buffalo did too late in 2021, that he is  true bell cow, an excllent back if you use him as such, he has taken over the starting roll there. And in the last 6 games there has at least 4.7 yards a carry in all but one. He is a major reason they are now fighting for a playoff spot.

 

Yup, the O line is better this year, and thankfully the best in a while, since the Incognito days, but they could have run the ball enough last year to be a Super Bowl contender, like they are now.

 

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by Mister Defense

[Mister Defense]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:54 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The dramatic change was Allen being encouraged(and schemed) to attack defense's with his full range of skills again.   Until they lost that Denver game they were still playing to keep Allen healthy for the stretch drive.

 

The very next game against the Jets Allen was running the ball again and taking hits, fighting for extra yards and getting dragged down awkwardly........but he's been extending drives and opening up the run game for the RB's in the process.

 

I like some of the non-Allen-running adjustments that Brady has made but they are subtle......NOT "dramatic".

 

You were probably one of the people complaining about running Cook out of shotgun under Dorsey, right?   "Everybody knows what's coming!" Well, now that they are having to account for Allen possibly pulling the ball and running.........those plays are starting to look a little more effective, aren't they?    

 

The passing game is still not looking good at all.   One of the underrated aspects of the Bills "bad" losses and/or poor offensive showings this season was that, aside from the familiarity matchup against Daboll, they came to defense's that have played well in general this season.   I had no problem changing Dorsey out but let's not pretend he could NOT change or adapt at all.   He drew up very unexpected gameplans against the Rams in the opener last season, in the Tampa game this year and he adjusted the offense to Allen's UCL injury last year to great effect.    He was a raw rookie in 2022 and replaceable either way but he wasn't single handedly handicapping the Bills offense.   That was a team effort.

 

Hopefully they find something in the passing game this week against a Chargers defense that is in shambles......like the way they did with the Cowboys terrible run defense without Hankins......but if they had lost that low scoring nail biter in KC the narrative about Brady isn't how good he's been.   Nope.   It's how Stefon Diggs disappeared under his watch and whether Brady even deserves a chance at returning since the Bills season would have been all but over at that point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree that, of course, we are better team when Allen throws and runs.  But I do not believe, like some, that the reason Dorsey did not use him effectively was because he was told to preserve him by McBeane.  As far I could see so far, that is just complete, and completely unsupported, speculation, but have not read or seen everything on that subject of course.

 

I do think the running game changes under Brady have been dramatic, and I think that is an understatement.  To me the lack of a good running game was one of the THE most fundamental problems this year and last.  Allen, and the entire team, both offense and defense, were at an extreme disadvantage because of that, could never even hope to rise to their potential or to be true contenders.

 

Now, as I had hoped and thought it would, the running game gets better and better every game,  (see my post on page 2 of this thread written right after the Jets game, speaking of the Bills finally establishing their identity).  The complete and fundamental shift in the use of the running game is the foundation of that, to me.

 

But yes, I agree that the passing game needs to come around. If they are to beat the Ravens or Chiefs in the championship game, and the 49's or Lions in the Super Bowl, the Bills will need that too.  But what they have done on the ground AD should facilitate that.   I thought we would see that more against Dallas, but of course that was wonderfully not needed at all!  I think over the next two games it will be important to work that out, as they may need  that to be dynamic against the fish in two weeks.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by Mister Defense

[Mister Defense]

On 12/22/2023 at 11:39 AM, Dopey said:

I’m glad we’re playing better, but for those of you who are looking to excuse away player accountability, here you go. The players had something to do with this. Including Josh in the Cincy playoff loss. His head wasn’t in the game. Worried about a baby mama, crazy ex, and dating a celebrity. Dorsey wasn’t the issue. We were 2nd in scoring last year. In the entire league. We’re on the outside looking in for the playoffs because Josh gave the Jets the season opener. We even got rid of Aaron Rodgers in that game and Josh screwed it up. Player accountability is important. 

 

 

So how do you explain the fundamental turn around in the offense since Brady took over? They went from an offense that was being shut out in the first quarter, first half repeatedly, and increasingly, or scoring very little in the first half, always having to come back in games, with almost no usable running game, to now an offense that looks like they could beat anyone?

 

Like Allen said in the post conference after a game soon before Dorsey was fired, the players executed the game plan--and then when he was fired said it "had to be done"...

 

If Brady had been the OC, the Bills would be locking up the #1 AFC seed soon, in my view.

 

I think the next few weeks things will continue to progress--and they were simply regressing,  and not improving, with Dorsey--see Allen's words in bold above..

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

 

 

I agree that, of course, we are better team when Allen throws and runs.  But I do not believe, like some, that the reason Dorsey did not use him effectively was because he was told to preserve him by McBeane.  As far I could see so far, that is just complete, and completely unsupported, speculation, but have not read or seen everything on that subject of course.

 

 

 

So as far as you could see.........having NOT EVEN LOOKED.......the idea that the Bills want to limit Allen's rushes until later in the season/playoffs is "completely unsupported, speculation"?

 

You do realize how ridiculous that statement is right?    You basically said you have zero clue if it's right......but it's bullish!t!  

 

Go back to page 7 and read @GunnerBill post...........each year since his breakout Allen has run a lot more at the back end of seasons.  

 

You should know this from the eyeball test alone being a Bills fan.   They always endeavor to keep him in the pocket early in the season......even at the expense of keeping games closer than they should be.    They've used the same formula to turn their fortunes around in 2021 when they were in a very similar spot with a 7-6 record.   The Denver loss was a less shocking but equally painful equivalent of the 9-6 loss in Jacksonville in 2021.

 

[Mister Defense]

18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

So as far as you could see.........having NOT EVEN LOOKED.......the idea that the Bills want to limit Allen's rushes until later in the season/playoffs is "completely unsupported, speculation"?

 

You do realize how ridiculous that statement is right?    You basically said you have zero clue if it's right......but it's bullish!t!  

 

Go back to page 7 and read @GunnerBill post...........each year since his breakout Allen has run a lot more at the back end of seasons.  

 

You should know this from the eyeball test alone being a Bills fan.   They always endeavor to keep him in the pocket early in the season......even at the expense of keeping games closer than they should be.    They've used the same formula to turn their fortunes around in 2021 when they were in a very similar spot with a 7-6 record.   The Denver loss was a less shocking but equally painful equivalent of the 9-6 loss in Jacksonville in 2021.

 

 

(Yikes, are you always like this?  Disconcerting that anyone can actually be  this way--so I am assuming it is mostly tongue in cheek? )

 

Lol! I actually said, "I agree that, of course, we are better team when Allen throws and runs.  But I do not believe, like some, that the reason Dorsey did not use him effectively was because he was told to preserve him by McBeane.  As far I could see so far, that is just complete, and completely unsupported, speculation, but have not read or seen everything on that subject of course."

 

From that you say I said I had "NOT EVEN LOOKED"!?!  So I was merely being honest, that I, of course, had not read or seen EVERYTHING on that topic.  (That is something I think you seem to need more of--a little objectivity and self awareness--just a grain of that would be nice!)

 

And if the stat your referenced is true, at least the statistical part of it, (not the reason for it, that you comically state as fact, with no support) that does not mean McBeane ordered it or that it was purposefully done, planned that way.'

 

Reading your bizarre reaction, attack, makes me realize why the country is in the place we are right now, with so many just shooting from the hip, attacking without any basis, and, most disturbing, believing what they want to believe, what they set their mind to, without any basis in reality.  Scary stuff--makes me think our school system needs to really get it together!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by Mister Defense

[stuvian]

Victory has many fathers. Defeat is an orphan. 

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I think it's interesting that Josh has been playing more Warner-like since Brady took over.

 

I don't think that's true at all. The entire Eagles game was a lot of miraculous off schedule plays from Josh... We do not have the skill players to suddenly become a "three step drop, ball out" passing offense.

 

Brady has legitimately been better than Dorsey, I don't think that's deniable. For me the best thing he's done is figure out his roster's strengths and heavily lean into them. Out of the 4 games Brady has coached, Davis only has a reception in one of them. That's insane... But it's clearly been the right choice, almost entirely removing him as a passing option and just using him as a blocker or downfield decoy. At the same time we've heavily involved Cook and Johnson both as runners and pass catchers. It's no coincidence our offense has looked unstoppable at times since Brady took over, despite a below average group of receivers. He found a couple things we do really well and doesn't out smart himself trying other things just for the sake of it. Dorsey on the contrary was seemingly calling plays at random with zero respect for his own players' strengths and weaknesses.