Time to rewrite the Conventional Wisdom on the playoff loss to Bengals--and the new CW on Dorsey too

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

What are your thoughts on the strategic vision remaining the same, except we now have a much more competent OC? 

It's possible only those inside the building at One Bills Drive can say for sure.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

One of the reasons I liked Dorsey was that he prioritized not running Allen

 

 

Unfortunately the lack of playmaking at the receiver position made that hard to sustain.    I truly believe that Beane is getting better at his job but the current lack of playmaking ability at WR is on him.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

Honestly, I never bought into the “emotionally drained” narrative, but at the time you were labeled an insensitive, uncaring dolt for even suggesting that … I may very well be all those things, but it’s not why the Bills were a no show against Cincinnati…

[hondo in seattle]

22 hours ago, Peter said:

Some Perspective

 

Bengals Playoff Game

 

Interestingly, the PFF grades for the Bengals playoff game had the offense playing better than the defense:

 

Offense grade: 65.1

 

Defense grade: 60.5

 

This Season

 

Also interesting, in the five losses this season when Dorsey was OC, the offense graded better than the defense in all but one. In that one game, the offense and defense had identical grades.

 

Of course, everyone presumably knows about all of the game losing drives that the defense has given up this year and that we would be firmly in the playoffs but for our defense not playing (as one might say) "complementary football."

 

Also, in case you were wondering, the offense had better grades than the defense in each of our wins when Dorsey was the OC.

 

It is a shame our defensive coordinator cannot get his defense to play "complementary" football.

 

 

Go Bills!!!

 

Having said all of that, Go Bills and Go Joe B!!! 

 

 

The defense suffered injuries to multiple key players.  Of course, it struggled. 

 

The offense was mostly healthy and flat-out underperformed.   There were games when the OL didn't look good.  And I watched the Kurt Warner film breakdowns that showed Josh not getting the ball out on schedule to the primary receiver despite him being open.  And of course, I wondered why Beane didn't draft/acquire better offensive linemen and pass catchers.  You could fault a lot of people for the inconsistencies on offense.  But there was no way you couldn't also fault Dorsey.  

[hondo in seattle]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

One of the reasons I liked Dorsey was that he prioritized not running Allen

 

I can see why.   The problem was that it left us unidimensional.  The only thing Dorsey had was Josh-to-Diggs.  He wasn't able to make anything else work with any consistency.  Orlovsky once said that the Bills were the easiest team in the NFL to defend because we were so predictable.  When stressed, Dorsey dialed up Allen-to-Diggs.  He didn't have faith in anything else.  

 

As others have mentioned, Harty and Sherfield were much more productive on other teams than they've been here with a unicorn QB.  Maybe the problem hasn't been Harty, Sherfield, and all the other unproductive Bills players.  Maybe the problem was the coordinator.  Looking at what Cook's done since Dorsey left seems to prove that suggestion.  

 

Previously, when Allen was running more, we were harder to defend.  And now, with Cook as a proven weapon and Josh back running, defenders have more to think about.  With Kincaid emerging, our offense becomes even more multi-faceted.  This could get interesting.  

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[Peter]

29 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

The defense suffered injuries to multiple key players.  Of course, it struggled. 

 

The offense was mostly healthy and flat-out underperformed.   There were games when the OL didn't look good.  And I watched the Kurt Warner film breakdowns that showed Josh not getting the ball out on schedule to the primary receiver despite him being open.  And of course, I wondered why Beane didn't draft/acquire better offensive linemen and pass catchers.  You could fault a lot of people for the inconsistencies on offense.  But there was no way you couldn't also fault Dorsey.  

 

Kurt Warner on Dorsey

 

Kurt Warner on Dorsey

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Memories are incredibly short with football fans.    Josh not running was the biggest complaint all season.   Fans expected Dorsey's offense to be productive and consistent anyway.    Joe Brady takes over with a clear directive to cut Josh loose as a runner and the narrative is that Joe Brady is some kind of revelation as the OC.   I think he's fine and being his second job as an NFL play caller I think that experience and then time to step back and re-evaluate maybe gives him a little edge over Dorsey when working against veteran DC's........though Spagnolo got in his pants in that second half in KC.    But that experience matters.   First year OC's never win a SB so it's no surprise Dorsey got Anarumo'ed in the playoffs after being on a 9 game heater.      

 

And in fairness the pattern for the last 3 seasons now has been don't run Josh earlier in the season but as the moments get bigger they have used his legs more. 

 

In 2021 he averaged 6 rushes per game through 10 games then almost 9 rushes a game thereafter. 

 

In 2022 he averaged 7 rushes per game through 10 games then almost 9 rushes a game thereafter.

 

This year he averaged a tick under 5 rushes per game through 10 games and then so far 8 rushes a game thereafter. 

 

This pattern has now been consistent under 3 coordinators which makes me think it is part of their strategy. Limit the rushing early in the year but go to it later.

[JohnNord]

3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

It's possible only those inside the building at One Bills Drive can say for sure.

 

 

This I agree with…

[Peter]

37 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

The defense suffered injuries to multiple key players.  Of course, it struggled. 

 

The offense was mostly healthy and flat-out underperformed.   There were games when the OL didn't look good.  And I watched the Kurt Warner film breakdowns that showed Josh not getting the ball out on schedule to the primary receiver despite him being open.  And of course, I wondered why Beane didn't draft/acquire better offensive linemen and pass catchers.  You could fault a lot of people for the inconsistencies on offense.  But there was no way you couldn't also fault Dorsey.  

 

Kurt Warner on Dorsey

 

Kurt Warner on Dorsey

[JohnNord]

8 minutes ago, Peter said:

 

Kurt Warner on Dorsey

 

Kurt Warner on Dorsey

The Cover 1 crew did a great job challenging Warner’s criticism of Josh.  
 

The problem with Warner’s criticism is that he doesn’t completely understand the style of play from of non-conventions QB’s like Josh.  Warner tends to be partial to QB’s who play the same way he did as a passer - which was throwing with timing and anticipation.   He constantly advocated for Josh to check the ball down in his analysis.  Josh largely did this early in the season and it essentially neutered some of the things he did well.
 

If anything Dorsey’s offense showed us this season, it’s that Josh isn’t meant to be the type of QB that takes three steps and checks the ball down to the receiver 3 yards away.  Like Mahomes, part of his game is playing off schedule.   

The problem last season is that it seemed like everything Allen did was off schedule resulting in a boom or bust result.  
 

Obviously, the key is finding balance between moving the sticks and taking a deep shot.  Allen never found that answer with Dorsey, hopefully it something Brady can bring out of him.  

[Peter]

20 hours ago, JohnNord said:

If you go by PFF grades, Tyrell Dodson is the 3rd best linebacker in the NFL.   PFF are subjective and do shoddy job arguing the narrative you are trying to spin. 
 

No one is denying the Bills defense was terrible against Cincinnati or that it wasn’t a problem in the losses this season.  It clearly was an it’s been talked about to death.  

 

But look at the points scored by the offense in each of the games you claim the offense

“graded out” higher.

 

10

16

20

25

18

22

 

An average of 18.5 per loss.   But apparently because the PFF score was higher for the offense, it means that defense was the problem.

 

Also, another fact to destroy your narrative.  The defense lost 1 All Pro player (Milano, 1 player playing at an All Pro level (Jones) and one former All Pro player coming into this own (White) for the season.   Obviously losing a player at every level defense for the entire year is going to hurt.  
 

The offense meanwhile has been relatively healthy all season long.   What’s the excuse there?

 

Bottom line is that the right call was to move from Dorsey.  If he hadn’t been fired, the Bills would be in a much worse position.  For weeks we kept waiting for the offense to “get right.”  It didn’t happen until we hired a new OC.  

 

I think 14 points to a decent but undermanned Giants should have been a wake up call.  
 

Still at this point, the Bills were 4-2 and two weeks off an impressive dismantling Miami, Las Vegas and Washington averaging 41 points.  
 

The Jacksonville game was ugly but weird stuff happens in international games.  Last year the Bills won 14 games.  They were 4-2 after the suspect Giants victory.  I think Dorsey deserved more time to turn it around. 

 

Second best offense and scoring offense last year

 

2022 Buffalo Bills Offense

 

Additional objective Metrics for 2023

 

Not exactly metrics that support firing the OC. 

 

Millano was a big loss no question. You are correct about that. [I actually was at that game in London. One of the main things that sticks out is who was the idiot who decided not to leave for London earlier in the week . . . hmmm].

 

Tre has not been Tre in a few years.

 

As for offensive and defensive resources, in the seven years since McD has been with the Bills, five of our seven first round picks have gone to the defense. We have devoted substantial resources to the defense in free agency as well. Floyd for example - who has played very well. On the other hand, I keep on reading about people complaining that the team has not made a number 2 WR a priority.

 

Merry Christmas.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Peter

[JohnNord]

13 minutes ago, Ryan Simpsons said:

Joe Brady reminds me of Brian Daboll - letting Allen run -- the run game since Dorsey left has to be in the Top 5

He has also gotten different receivers in the mix (Kincaid/Shakir/Johnson/Cook!!!) - they are unstoppable offensively when running and passing game are working

 

This year those games have been:

 

Dolphins 

Raiders

Commanders (semi)

Buccaneers 

Jets (2nd time)

Eagles 

I wouldn’t put Tampa on this list as the Bills offense completely stalled in the second half.  They had a few nice drives and did a good job getting Gabe and Shakir involved in the passing game but the end result was 24 points.  Barely enough to win. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Peter said:

 

Kurt Warner on Dorsey

 

Kurt Warner on Dorsey

 

I watched that and to me Kurt misses the key point. Which is that so much of his offense requires consistent execution. It asks Josh to make the right read time and time again which isn't really the thing that makes Josh special (not saying he can't read defenses, but that isn't his special trait). And it asks the receivers to run really precise routes and separate early again and again (and then catch the ball at a high clip) - we don't really have the skill players for that either. Brady is still running largely the same scheme but he is trying to do two things - 1 more movement pre-snap to try and speed up some of the reads and create natural picks and leverage; and 2 attack the middle of the field more to increase natural YAC possibilities rather than relying on our receivers catching balls and then breaking tackles outside (not their strength). 

 

I said it earlier... I wouldn't be shocked if Ken went somewhere else and succeeded. But his method of running this offense with these players asked them to do too much that they are not excellent at and not enough of the things they really do well. He wasn't clueless or incompetent as others have ascribed him. Give him the Eagles offense and I am sure his scheme would work. But for this set of skill guys you need to be a bit more creative, use a bit more misdirection, a bit more eye candy and put the defense in more binds before you snap the ball. 

3 minutes ago, Peter said:

 

Second best offense and scoring offense last year

 

2022 Buffalo Bills Offense

 

Additional objective Metrics for 2023

 

Not exactly metrics that support firing the OC. 

 

Millano was a big loss no question. You are correct about that. [I actually was at that game in London. One of the main things that sticks out is who was the idiot who decided not to leave for London earlier in the week . . . hmmm].

 

Tre has not been Tre in a few years.

 

As for offensive and defensive resources, in the seven years since McD has been with the Bills, five of our seven first round picks have gone to the defense. We have devoted substantial resources to the defense in free agency as well. Floyd for example - who has played very well. On the other hand, I keep on reading about people complaining that that the team has not made a number 2 WR a priority.

 

Merry Christmas.

 

 

 

 

Tre had just played two excellent games. Easily his best since the injury. He was rounding into form when he got hurt. 

 

Don't disagree on leaving earlier for London but not sure another day or two would have made the difference against a team that had been here well over a week. Agree also about the lack of draft capital on receiver. That is beyond doubt. That is on Brandon Beane.

 

[Peter]

11 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

The Cover 1 crew did a great job challenging Warner’s criticism of Josh.  
 

The problem with Warner’s criticism is that he doesn’t completely understand the style of play from of non-conventions QB’s like Josh.  Warner tends to be partial to QB’s who play the same way he did as a passer - which was throwing with timing and anticipation.   He constantly advocated for Josh to check the ball down in his analysis.  Josh largely did this early in the season and it essentially neutered some of the things he did well.
 

If anything Dorsey’s offense showed us this season, it’s that Josh isn’t meant to be the type of QB that takes three steps and checks the ball down to the receiver 3 yards away.  Like Mahomes, part of his game is playing off schedule.   

The problem last season is that it seemed like everything Allen did was off schedule resulting in a boom or bust result.  
 

Obviously, the key is finding balance between moving the sticks and taking a deep shot.  Allen never found that answer with Dorsey, hopefully it something Brady can bring out of him.  

 

Cover 1 was leading the charge against Dorsey. That does not surprise me. I am not going to so easily dismiss Warner's evaluation just because of Cover 1.

 

Whatever one thinks about Dorsey, he was the OC of the second best offense in the league last year (and outperformed prior years). I don't think he suddenly forgot how to be an OC from last year to this year.

 

As for changing the way Josh plays, the main person who has been vocal (or at least was vocal about it) has the initials Sean McDermott.

 

Having said all of that, I do believe that Joe B has done a very good job. I just don't buy into the anti Dorsey narrative here, on WGR, or Cover 1. 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Peter

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

The Cover 1 crew did a great job challenging Warner’s criticism of Josh.  
 

The problem with Warner’s criticism is that he doesn’t completely understand the style of play from of non-conventions QB’s like Josh.  Warner tends to be partial to QB’s who play the same way he did as a passer - which was throwing with timing and anticipation.   He constantly advocated for Josh to check the ball down in his analysis.  Josh largely did this early in the season and it essentially neutered some of the things he did well.
 

If anything Dorsey’s offense showed us this season, it’s that Josh isn’t meant to be the type of QB that takes three steps and checks the ball down to the receiver 3 yards away.  Like Mahomes, part of his game is playing off schedule.   

The problem last season is that it seemed like everything Allen did was off schedule resulting in a boom or bust result.  
 

Obviously, the key is finding balance between moving the sticks and taking a deep shot.  Allen never found that answer with Dorsey, hopefully it something Brady can bring out of him.  

 

And Dorsey in a sense is the same as Kurt. He was running the offense that he would run if he was still playing. Where his best asset was his processor. That isn't who Josh is. 

[Peter]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I watched that and to me Kurt misses the key point. Which is that so much of his offense requires consistent execution. It asks Josh to make the right read time and time again which isn't really the thing that makes Josh special (not saying he can't read defenses, but that isn't his special trait). And it asks the receivers to run really precise routes and separate early again and again (and then catch the ball at a high clip) - we don't really have the skill players for that either. Brady is still running largely the same scheme but he is trying to do two things - 1 more movement pre-snap to try and speed up some of the reads and create natural picks and leverage; and 2 attack the middle of the field more to increase natural YAC possibilities rather than relying on our receivers catching balls and then breaking tackles outside (not their strength). 

 

I said it earlier... I wouldn't be shocked if Ken went somewhere else and succeeded. But his method of running this offense with these players asked them to do too much that they are not excellent at and not enough of the things they really do well. He wasn't clueless or incompetent as others have ascribed him. Give him the Eagles offense and I am sure his scheme would work. But for this set of skill guys you need to be a bit more creative, use a bit more misdirection, a bit more eye candy and put the defense in more binds before you snap the ball. 

 

Tre had just played two excellent games. Easily his best since the injury. He was rounding into form when he got hurt. 

 

Don't disagree on leaving earlier for London but not sure another day or two would have made the difference against a team that had been here well over a week. Agree also about the lack of draft capital on receiver. That is beyond doubt. That is on Brandon Beane.

 

 

 

My response:

 

COYG!!!

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, Ryan Simpsons said:

Joe Brady reminds me of Brian Daboll - letting Allen run -- the run game since Dorsey left has to be in the Top 5

He has also gotten different receivers in the mix (Kincaid/Shakir/Johnson/Cook!!!) - they are unstoppable offensively when running and passing game are working

 

This year those games have been:

 

Dolphins 

Raiders

Commanders (semi)

Buccaneers 

Jets (2nd time)

Eagles 

 

Josh's career high rushing attempts was last season under Dorsey (and it was in a 16 game season last year rather than 17 and he'd have to run 44 times in 3 games to break it this year). 

 

The narrative that Dorsey never let Josh run is false.

[JohnNord]

Just now, Peter said:

 

Second best offense and scoring offense last year

 

2022 Buffalo Bills Offense

 

Additional objective Metrics for 2023

 

Not exactly metrics that support firing the OC. 

 

Millano was a big loss no question. You are correct about that. [I actually was at that game in London. One of the main things that sticks out is who was the idiot who decided not to leave for London earlier in the week . . . hmmm].

 

Tre has not been Tre in a few years.

 

As for offensive and defensive resources, in the seven years since McD has been with the Bills, five of our seven first round picks have gone to the defense. We have devoted substantial resources to the defense in free agency as well. Floyd for example - who has played very well. On the other hand, I keep on reading about people complaining that that the team has not made a number 2 WR a priority.

 

Merry Christmas.

 

 

 

The problem was never the metrics, Peter.   The problem was the offense wasn’t sustaining drives and more important wasn’t scoring points.   I feel that Ken Dorsey was the problem as a play caller.  
 

Explain this to me, if Dorsey was doing such a great job and running an effective offense then why did a relatively healthy Bills offense average a pedestrian 18.5 points over his final 6 games?  Including struggling to break 20 points when facing lesser completion?  

 

Meanwhile under Brady, the Bills have faced 3 highly ranked and 1 mediocre defense (PHIL) and averaged 29?

 

That’s an 11 point difference against stiffer competition.  Every time I bring this up to a Dorsey supporter, they never have any response.  Also we’re talking a sample size of 6 games and 4 games.    So to say their either is a fluke is probably not honest. 

 

IMO it’s faulty logic to think Dorsey would have done the same given more time.  It was the same story every week - we waited each week for improvement and it really never happened.  
 

The Bills are 8-6 and might not make the playoffs.  There’s a lot of criticism you can point to.  

Firing Ken Dorsey should not be one of them.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Peter said:

 

 

My response:

 

COYG!!!

 

Ha. Win tomorrow and we will win the league. Had we not blown it 2 up at Anfield last year we'd have won the league. Arsenal title wins always seem to feature a win at Anfield (98 apart when we were already Champions before we went there).

[Peter]

1 minute ago, JohnNord said:

The problem was never the metrics, Peter.   The problem was the offense wasn’t sustaining drives and more important wasn’t scoring points.   I feel that Ken Dorsey was the problem as a play caller.  
 

Explain this to me, if Dorsey was doing such a great job and running an effective offense then why did a relatively healthy Bills offense average a pedestrian 18.5 points over his final 6 games?  Including struggling to break 20 points when facing lesser completion?  

 

Meanwhile under Brady, the Bills have faced 3 highly ranked and 1 mediocre defense (PHIL) and averaged 29?

 

That’s an 11 point difference against stiffer competition.  Every time I bring this up to a Dorsey supporter, they never have any response.  Also we’re talking a sample size of 6 games and 4 games.    So to say their either is a fluke is probably not honest. 

 

IMO it’s faulty logic to think Dorsey would have done the same given more time.  It was the same story every week - we waited each week for improvement and it really never happened.  
 

The Bills are 8-6 and might not make the playoffs.  There’s a lot of criticism you can point to.  

Firing Ken Dorsey should not be one of them.

 

I have to go pick up my kids. I do not have time to look now, but my recollection is that the primary problem we had was turnovers as well as the attempt to change Josh's style of play.

 

We will just agree to disagree on Dorsey. I do appreciate the civil discourse with you on this subject.