Time to rewrite the Conventional Wisdom on the playoff loss to Bengals--and the new CW on Dorsey too

[JohnNord]

On 11/19/2023 at 2:12 PM, Mister Defense said:

Last year it quickly became conventional wisdom by many in the media, locally and nationally, that the Bills were simply emotionally and physically spent, and that is why they were dominated by the Bengals in Buffalo, at High Mark Stadium. The story went something like this: the tragedy in Buffalo, the loss of Knox’s brother, the snow storms, and the Hamlin incident all were too much for the Bills, and that is why the Bengals handled them so easily, the reason the Bills were not even in the game.  ‘They look exhausted’, we heard during and after the game. That take became the CW across the country, although I don’t think the Bills thought that was the reason.

 

But I and others didn’t think that was the reason in any way for the Bills performance. That is not because of a lack of empathy, but I thought this was a tough, resilient team, Buffalo Strong, and that if anything, the surprisingly quick recovery of Hamlin was like the weight of the world being lifted off the team’s, and Buffalo’s, shoulders.

 

The problem was that they had an incompetent offensive coordinator, who the league was slowly coming to terms with as the season progressed.  We saw with our own eyes, if we were paying attention, that he was extremely poor at even the most fundamental of OC duties:

 

o   Did not seem to have game plan specific plans prepared for the game that would help to facilitate things against defenses….

o   He did know how to make in game changes to overcome what the defense was doing, seemed to have no  plan for those things…

o   Did not utilize the running game well, using it arbitrarily, with almost no connection to the passing game. As  Gregg Cosell said several times last year: “There is no synchronicity between the Bills' running and passing game”.  This in itself, to me, was a reason Dorsey could not be permitted to return for this season...

o   Did not call plays that made sense, repeatedly, and often was clueless as to what a good rhythm in play calling meant

o   He did not use his personnel effectively, not getting the most out of the players on the offense.

o   And awful use of formations to facilitate things for the offense,  with extremely limited use of motion, and with so little use of Allen under center and play action, despite the fact that the Bills excelled when using those three things…

 

Etcetera--but those are only some of the big, obvious things. Imagine how Dorsey dealt with the equally important smaller details that make an offense work. I cannot imagine how bad those details were if he had no clue related to the big, obvious problems even laymen like us saw.

 

Even one of those defects means that there would be significant obstacles placed in front of the offense—rather than facilitating things, Dorsey was doing the opposite, placing big obstacles in front of his talented players.  But add up all of the obstacles and they became insurmountable. That is what happened this year, clearly.  And the fish then rotted from the head, as the players tried to overcome their grossly incompetent OC.

 

This year, as the offense became Dorsey's alone, and the heavy lift from last year became their identity, of course the play of the players, even of the best Bills, was going to decline. They were operating in a fundamentally flawed offense, one that could often not even move the ball, and one that caused them to fall behind in game after game. Players, already going into the game with Dorsey's huge obstacles in front of them, now were faced with coming back against teams, teams that seemed to know the Bills extremely limited repertoire of plays by heart, causing the Bills to look sloppy, inept, turn the ball over, and causing them to lose their confidence.

 

Our tough, resilient team was not exhausted in the playoff game, and not against the Jaguars this year because of jet lag…. they were UNPREPARED to play well, let alone win-- shocked, defeated before they even walked on the field, as defenses, especially the good ones, like the Bengals, had come to terms with how fundamentally flawed this offense was.  And this year it had become common place, with an offense Dan Orlosvky said was “outrageously predictable” and “the easiest offense in the NFL to defend”.  Our recently great, feared offense now the easiest to defend in the NFL? THAT is why the Bills looked so shocked and confused in that playoff game--and we then saw those same faces this year, over and over and over. This is why Michael Robinson bravely called for a change in the OC position before the Bills' Thursday night game, one of the few to dare speak the truth on national television.

 

Good head coaches and defensive coordinators have been like fat kids in a free candy store, drooling and licking their chops, at how easy this very poorly coached offense would be to stop now, despite several elite players and a history of them dominating defenses. This became clearer and clearer.

 

What happened the next time we saw the starters on the field in the preseason, how did they do?  No points(?)  scored in the entire half of that preseason game. This was yet another canary in the coal mine for all of us understanding how fundamentally poor Dorsey was at his job. Even in a preseason game his players were unprepared, could not get first downs, could not score.  (I kept thinking--what will happen when they play good defenses in the NFL this year--or even mediocre ones?) And the look on the players' faces?--shocked again, and with no answers. Just like they looked against the Bengals in their previous game.

 

The CW at the time? Just a preseason game, meaningless, as this is going to be a great offense, a “wrecking crew”, as Steve Tasker called them. And then, of course, this was what we would see this season, as that became their identity.

 

So let's not accept any longer that CW from last January or now from so many on the Dorsey firing.  The new CW?  Dorsey was a scapegoat, a fall guy, that Allen is to blame, or the other players, and Dorsey should not have been fired, especially in the middle of the season. That this cannot be done now, is almost never the answer, is going to make the Bills worse...  

 

But the CW is wrong again, of course.  The Bills were likely not going to beat any of the good teams they are yet to play this year with Dorsey in charge, as they were the worst coached offense in the NFL, turning our once great offense into a crap heap.  The only hope to save the season was to get Dorsey out of there.

 

Now, hopefully there is time for the Bills to show who they really are.  It may be hard to rebound quickly from the mess Dorsey alone created, but I think they will, and prove the latest CW wrong--and last year's too.   No dominant teams in the AFC this year, and now we may be able to see what the Josh Allen led Bills are really made of...again.

 

 
 

 

This is was an astute observation last month that rings even more true today.

 

The narrative is often that “Josh over McDermott.”  I’d almost argue that Josh overcame Dorsey as OC.  His talent and ability to get the ball to Stef for plays helped elevate the offense statistically but it just never looked smooth.  It was always Josh throwing to Diggs or Josh throwing deep to Gabe Davis.  When the big plays were taken away the offense had zero answers.

 

This is why IMO Dorsey wanted to turn Josh into an efficient short game passer that runs out of 2 TE sets.  It’s my believe this was a Dorsey concept and not a McDermott one.  It made sense on paper but in actuality it restricted his strengths.  
 

I think Brady’s play calling and game plans have been better but also gave Josh answers when teams focused on taking away Diggs the past few weeks.    This is what Dorsey never could do and I think that offense post-Miami was a big reason why the Bills dropped some games they should have won.

[Saxum]

On 11/19/2023 at 2:23 PM, Mister Defense said:

 

Yes, and I think that all of the offensive players, especially Allen and Diggs, were seeing what so many of us saw.  Listen to Allen's words after the firing, and read between the lions.  For example, Allen said how much he respected Dorsey "as a human being", but never said he was a good offensive coordinator, at least from what I heard.

 

 

Allen was reason why Dorsey was OC!   He wanted him to succeed Coach Diabolical.  After a LOT of friction between him and Brian Daboll until Daboll backed off a bit, called from booth and became less confrontational with Allen (as he learned in New England) and more collaborative.  Dorsey did even seem to be collaborative with his own staff.   I do not know what happened to between being QB who was one who talked to Allen in booth while Daboll was in booth to becoming OC but he seemed to have a personality change maybe from too much stress and living up to Coach Diabolical.

[Mr. WEO]

On 11/19/2023 at 2:12 PM, Mister Defense said:

 

 

But the CW is wrong again, of course.  The Bills were likely not going to beat any of the good teams they are yet to play this year with Dorsey in charge, as they were the worst coached offense in the NFL, turning our once great offense into a crap heap.  

 

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

I'm no fan of Dorsey, but this is an awful take.

[ToGoGo]

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I'm no fan of Dorsey, but this is an awful take.

Please explain your thought process in detail. 

[BADOLBILZ]

On 11/19/2023 at 2:12 PM, Mister Defense said:

Last year it quickly became conventional wisdom by many in the media, locally and nationally, that the Bills were simply emotionally and physically spent, and that is why they were dominated by the Bengals in Buffalo, at High Mark Stadium. The story went something like this: the tragedy in Buffalo, the loss of Knox’s brother, the snow storms, and the Hamlin incident all were too much for the Bills, and that is why the Bengals handled them so easily, the reason the Bills were not even in the game.  ‘They look exhausted’, we heard during and after the game. That take became the CW across the country, although I don’t think the Bills thought that was the reason.

 

But I and others didn’t think that was the reason in any way for the Bills performance. That is not because of a lack of empathy, but I thought this was a tough, resilient team, Buffalo Strong, and that if anything, the surprisingly quick recovery of Hamlin was like the weight of the world being lifted off the team’s, and Buffalo’s, shoulders.

 

The problem was that they had an incompetent offensive coordinator, who the league was slowly coming to terms with as the season progressed.  We saw with our own eyes, if we were paying attention, that he was extremely poor at even the most fundamental of OC duties:

 

o   Did not seem to have game plan specific plans prepared for the game that would help to facilitate things against defenses….

o   He did know how to make in game changes to overcome what the defense was doing, seemed to have no  plan for those things…

o   Did not utilize the running game well, using it arbitrarily, with almost no connection to the passing game. As  Gregg Cosell said several times last year: “There is no synchronicity between the Bills' running and passing game”.  This in itself, to me, was a reason Dorsey could not be permitted to return for this season...

o   Did not call plays that made sense, repeatedly, and often was clueless as to what a good rhythm in play calling meant

o   He did not use his personnel effectively, not getting the most out of the players on the offense.

o   And awful use of formations to facilitate things for the offense,  with extremely limited use of motion, and with so little use of Allen under center and play action, despite the fact that the Bills excelled when using those three things…

 

Etcetera--but those are only some of the big, obvious things. Imagine how Dorsey dealt with the equally important smaller details that make an offense work. I cannot imagine how bad those details were if he had no clue related to the big, obvious problems even laymen like us saw.

 

Even one of those defects means that there would be significant obstacles placed in front of the offense—rather than facilitating things, Dorsey was doing the opposite, placing big obstacles in front of his talented players.  But add up all of the obstacles and they became insurmountable. That is what happened this year, clearly.  And the fish then rotted from the head, as the players tried to overcome their grossly incompetent OC.

 

This year, as the offense became Dorsey's alone, and the heavy lift from last year became their identity, of course the play of the players, even of the best Bills, was going to decline. They were operating in a fundamentally flawed offense, one that could often not even move the ball, and one that caused them to fall behind in game after game. Players, already going into the game with Dorsey's huge obstacles in front of them, now were faced with coming back against teams, teams that seemed to know the Bills extremely limited repertoire of plays by heart, causing the Bills to look sloppy, inept, turn the ball over, and causing them to lose their confidence.

 

Our tough, resilient team was not exhausted in the playoff game, and not against the Jaguars this year because of jet lag…. they were UNPREPARED to play well, let alone win-- shocked, defeated before they even walked on the field, as defenses, especially the good ones, like the Bengals, had come to terms with how fundamentally flawed this offense was.  And this year it had become common place, with an offense Dan Orlosvky said was “outrageously predictable” and “the easiest offense in the NFL to defend”.  Our recently great, feared offense now the easiest to defend in the NFL? THAT is why the Bills looked so shocked and confused in that playoff game--and we then saw those same faces this year, over and over and over. This is why Michael Robinson bravely called for a change in the OC position before the Bills' Thursday night game, one of the few to dare speak the truth on national television.

 

Good head coaches and defensive coordinators have been like fat kids in a free candy store, drooling and licking their chops, at how easy this very poorly coached offense would be to stop now, despite several elite players and a history of them dominating defenses. This became clearer and clearer.

 

What happened the next time we saw the starters on the field in the preseason, how did they do?  No points(?)  scored in the entire half of that preseason game. This was yet another canary in the coal mine for all of us understanding how fundamentally poor Dorsey was at his job. Even in a preseason game his players were unprepared, could not get first downs, could not score.  (I kept thinking--what will happen when they play good defenses in the NFL this year--or even mediocre ones?) And the look on the players' faces?--shocked again, and with no answers. Just like they looked against the Bengals in their previous game.

 

The CW at the time? Just a preseason game, meaningless, as this is going to be a great offense, a “wrecking crew”, as Steve Tasker called them. And then, of course, this was what we would see this season, as that became their identity.

 

So let's not accept any longer that CW from last January or now from so many on the Dorsey firing.  The new CW?  Dorsey was a scapegoat, a fall guy, that Allen is to blame, or the other players, and Dorsey should not have been fired, especially in the middle of the season. That this cannot be done now, is almost never the answer, is going to make the Bills worse...  

 

But the CW is wrong again, of course.  The Bills were likely not going to beat any of the good teams they are yet to play this year with Dorsey in charge, as they were the worst coached offense in the NFL, turning our once great offense into a crap heap.  The only hope to save the season was to get Dorsey out of there.

 

Now, hopefully there is time for the Bills to show who they really are.  It may be hard to rebound quickly from the mess Dorsey alone created, but I think they will, and prove the latest CW wrong--and last year's too.   No dominant teams in the AFC this year, and now we may be able to see what the Josh Allen led Bills are really made of...again.

 

 
 

 

 

 

Your hindsight is 50/50.......congrats.

 

The team on the field now is not the same as the one at the end of last season..........the talent on offense is significantly better.......guys like Torrence/McGovern/Kincaid weren't with the team..........and the development of Spencer Brown and James Cook among others has been significant they weren't nearly the players they are now.    And they've been healthier.  

 

On defense they aren't just relying on Tim Settle and Ed Oliver to rotate as the 1 tech like they were in that Cinci game........Leonard Floyd and Rasul Douglas are big upgrades at key starting positions.........with the pass rush and LOS play improved the back 7 in general is more effective even though last years back 7 had Milano and Edmunds. 

 

There is no doubt they were emotionally sapped at the end of last season and they also didn't have the horse's to overcome it against a strong Cinci team(unfortunately even with the Bengals OL banged up) like they did versus Miami the week before.         

[ToGoGo]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Your hindsight is 50/50.......congrats.

 

The team on the field now is not the same as the one at the end of last season..........the talent on offense is significantly better.......guys like Torrence/McGovern/Kincaid weren't with the team..........and the development of Spencer Brown and James Cook among others has been significant they weren't nearly the players they are now.    And they've been healthier.  

 

On defense they aren't just relying on Tim Settle and Ed Oliver to rotate as the 1 tech like they were in that Cinci game........Leonard Floyd and Rasul Douglas are big upgrades at key starting positions.........with the pass rush and LOS play improved the back 7 in general is more effective even though last years back 7 had Milano and Edmunds. 

 

There is no doubt they were emotionally sapped at the end of last season and they also didn't have the horse's to overcome it against a strong Cinci team(unfortunately even with the Bengals OL banged up) like they did versus Miami the week before.         

Look at the date he wrote the post. A few days after Dorsey was fired. 
 

This guy made the best prediction I have ever seen a poster make on TBD. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

Look at the date he wrote the post. A few days after Dorsey was fired. 
 

This guy made the best prediction I have ever seen a poster make on TBD. 

 

 

Did anyone not expect the offense to improve later in the season whether they changed play callers or not?   

 

Dorsey began the season with a directive to not get Josh Allen beaten up.

 

They were playing "not to lose Josh" and just get thru these easy opponents offensively for the last month before Dorsey got canned.

 

And the reality is they do not have the talent at WR to just make their QB stay in the pocket with the way defense's are attacking big play offense's this season.

 

Dorsey's exit coincided with the team letting Josh be Josh.   The threat of Allen using every skill at his disposal opens up the run game.   The passing game is still out of sync and very punchless but now that every option is on the table they can look more like they have when they've played with desperation in the past.   

 

This season is not just an extension of last season.......so much has changed beyond just the offensive play caller.

 

[ToGoGo]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Did anyone not expect the offense to improve later in the season whether they changed play callers or not?   

 

Dorsey began the season with a directive to not get Josh Allen beaten up.

 

They were playing "not to lose Josh" and just get thru these easy opponents offensively for the last month before Dorsey got canned.

 

And the reality is they do not have the talent at WR to just make their QB stay in the pocket with the way defense's are attacking big play offense's this season.

 

Dorsey's exit coincided with the team letting Josh be Josh.   The threat of Allen using every skill at his disposal opens up the run game.   The passing game is still out of sync and very punchless but now that every option is on the table they can look more like they have when they've played with desperation in the past.   

 

This season is not just an extension of last season.......so much has changed beyond just the offensive play caller.

 

I have no idea what any of this has to do with the OP. 
 

The entire fanbase quit after the Broncos game. The only person with hindsight issues is you. 

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

I have no idea what any of this has to do with the OP. 
 

The entire fanbase quit after the Broncos game. The only person with hindsight issues is you. 

Nope

 

The actual rewriting of the conventional wisdom would be that the offense was fine under Dorsey, was in a lull similar to lulls under Daboll before him that many NFL offenses undergo throughout the course of a regular season, and was statistically likely to regain form 

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Nope

 

The actual rewriting of the conventional wisdom would be that the offense was fine under Dorsey, was in a lull similar to lulls under Daboll before him that many NFL offenses undergo throughout the course of a regular season, and was statistically likely to regain form 

It was a one dimensional mess that put up massive stats against poor competition.

 

We have obviously upgraded.

[GoBills808]

Just now, SWATeam said:

It was a one dimensional mess that put up massive stats against poor competition.

 

We have obviously upgraded.

Yes that is the conventional wisdom in a nutshell

 

It's a nice story

[Andrew Son]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Yes that is the conventional wisdom in a nutshell

 

It's a nice story

Do you honestly think Dorsey calls the game we just witnessed?   

[Mike in Horseheads]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Yes that is the conventional wisdom in a nutshell

 

It's a nice story

 

 

... That was a awful long lull, like all season but miami

[GoBills808]

Just now, SWATeam said:

Do you honestly think Dorsey calls the game we just witnessed?   

That is beside the point

 

What I think is that the offense would have finished the regular season in a similar statistical position regardless of who happened to be be OC

Just now, Mike in Horseheads said:

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes that is the conventional wisdom in a nutshell

 

It's a nice story

 

 

... That was a awful long lull, like all season but miami

I realize that was how it felt but statistically that is not born out

[dpberr]

I think the Bills have quietly benefited from some new voices in the locker room this year compared to last year, and even compared to earlier in the year.  

 

I think the additions of Linval Joseph, Rasul Douglas, Ty Johnson, and Taylor Rapp have added some energy and nasty. 

 

I don't think it is coincidence that the Bills defense started hitting harder and playing more aggressively after Douglas and Joseph arrived on scene.  

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That is beside the point

 

What I think is that the offense would have finished the regular season in a similar statistical position regardless of who happened to be be OC

I realize that was how it felt but statistically that is not born out

Whats the over/under on Dorsey's next OC job then? 

 

Gotta figure a guy who was CLEARLY a scapegoat and would've been fine if we just stuck out his second putrid second half of the season slump in two seasons is back with the headset on next year, right?

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Whats the over/under on Dorsey's next OC job then? 

 

Gotta figure a guy who was CLEARLY a scapegoat and would've been fine if we just stuck out his second putrid second half of the season slump in two seasons is back with the headset on next year, right?

Yes I would think he gets another job as OC at some point

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, ToGoGo said:

Please explain your thought process in detail. 

 

You do know how a dart board works, right?

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, ToGoGo said:

Please explain your thought process in detail. 

 

your analysis concluded that the Bills (Offense?) was the worst coached team in the NFL under Dorsey?  That conclusion clearly required NO thought process.

 

 

Bills under Dorsey were #2 in scoring and yards last year.  Sure, Cook had a once in a career (so far) game last week and Brady went with the hot hand. But you can't be serious about the worst coaching in the NFL.  why take such a bad look?  unforced error...

 

[Dillenger4]

who cares??? We are on a run with McD - top 3 coach in the NFL. Smokin Joe - Top 5 OC in league and climbing quickly. 

We just beat KC, Dallas, Jets and OT loss to the Eagles. Bills are on a frickin run boys and McD is to blame. It's his fault we are going to the playoffs. It's his fault our D is hitting the opposition with terrorist murder in their eyes. It's McD's fault that smokin Joe is our new OC. It's McD's fault that Joes besty from UB is now sitting upstairs right beside him and called some plays last week with Joe. Let's go! McD has us on the cusp of the frickin SB baby!!!! Let's goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo