Time to rewrite the Conventional Wisdom on the playoff loss to Bengals--and the new CW on Dorsey too

[Ga boy]

1 hour ago, Mister Defense said:

Last year it quickly became conventional wisdom by many in the media, locally and nationally, that the Bills were simply emotionally and physically spent, and that is why they were dominated by the Bengals in Buffalo, at High Mark Stadium. The story went something like this: the tragedy in Buffalo, the loss of Knox’s brother, the snow storms, and the Hamlin incident all were too much for the Bills, and that is why the Bengals handled them so easily, the reason the Bills were not even in the game.  ‘They look exhausted’, we heard during and after the game. That take became the CW across the country, although I don’t think the Bills thought that was the reason.

 

But I and others didn’t think that was the reason in any way for the Bills performance. That is not because of a lack of empathy, but I thought this was a tough, resilient team, Buffalo Strong, and that if anything, the surprisingly quick recovery of Hamlin was like the weight of the world being lifted off the team’s, and Buffalo’s, shoulders.

 

The problem was that they had an incompetent offensive coordinator, who the league was slowly coming to terms with as the season progressed.  We saw with our own eyes, if we were paying attention, that he was extremely poor at even the most fundamental of OC duties:

 

o   Did not seem to have game plan specific plans prepared for the game that would help to facilitate things against defenses….

o   He did know how to make in game changes to overcome what the defense was doing, seemed to have no  plan for those things…

o   Did not utilize the running game well, using it arbitrarily, with almost no connection to the passing game. As  Gregg Cosell said several times last year: “There is no synchronicity between the Bills' running and passing game”.  This in itself, to me, was a reason Dorsey could not be permitted to return for this season...

o   Did not call plays that made sense, repeatedly, and often was clueless as to what a good rhythm in play calling meant

o   He did not use his personnel effectively, not getting the most out of the players on the offense.

o   And awful use of formations to facilitate things for the offense, with so little use of Allen under center and play action, despite the fact that the Bills excelled in those…

 

Etcetera--but those are only some of the big, obvious things. Imagine how Dorsey dealt with the equally important smaller details that make an offense work. I cannot imagine how bad those details were if he had no clue related to the big, obvious problems even laymen like us saw.

 

Even one of those defects means that there would be significant obstacles placed in front of the offense—rather than facilitating things, Dorsey was doing the opposite, placing big obstacles in front of his talented players.  But add up all of the obstacles and they became insurmountable. That is what happened this year, clearly.  And the fish then rotted from the head, as the players tried to overcome their grossly incompetent OC.

 

This year, as the offense became Dorsey's alone, and the heavy lift from last year became their identity, of course the play of the players, even of the best Bills, was going to decline. They were operating in a fundamentally flawed offense, one that could often not even move the ball, and one that caused them to fall behind in game after game. Players, already going into the game with Dorsey's huge obstacles in front of them, now were faced with coming back against teams, teams that seemed to know the Bills extremely limited repertoire of plays by heart, causing the Bills to look sloppy, inept, turn the ball over, and causing them lose their confidence.

 

Our tough, resilient team was not exhausted in the playoff game, and not against the Jaguars this year because of jet lag…. they were UNPREPARED to play well, let alone win-- shocked, defeated before they even walked on the field, as defenses, especially the good ones, like the Bengals, had come to terms with how fundamentally flawed this offense was.  And this year it had become common place, with an offense Dan Orlosvky said was “outrageously predictable” and “the easiest offense in the NFL to defend”.  Our recently great, feared offense now the easiest to defend in the NFL? THAT is why the Bills looked so shocked and confused in that playoff game--and we then saw those same faces this year, over and over and over. This is why Michael Robinson bravely called for a change in the OC position before the Thursday night game, one of the few to dare speak the truth on national television.

 

Good head coaches and defensive coordinators have been like fat kids in a free candy store, drooling and licking their chops, at how easy this very poorly coached offense would be to stop now, despite several elite players and a history of them dominating defenses. This became clearer and clearer.

 

What happened the next time we saw the starters on the field in the preseason, how did they do?  No points(?)  scored in the entire half of that preseason game. This was yet another canary in the coal mine for all of us understanding how fundamentally poor Dorsey was at his job. Even in a preseason game his players were unprepared, could not get first downs, could not score.  (I kept thinking--what will happen when they play good defenses in the NFL this year--or even mediocre ones?) And the look on the players' faces?--shocked again, and with no answers. Just like they looked against the Bengals in their previous game.

 

The CW at the time? Just a preseason game, meaningless, as this is going to be a great offense, a “wrecking crew”, as Steve Tasker called them. And then, of course, this was what we would see this season, as that became their identity.

 

So let's not accept any longer that CW from last January or now from so many on the Dorsey firing.  The new CW?  Dorsey was a scapegoat, a fall guy, that Allen is to blame, or the other players, and Dorsey should not have been fired, especially in the middle of the season. That this cannot be done now, is almost never the answer, is going to make the Bills worse...  

 

But the CW is wrong again, of course.  The Bills were likely not going to beat any of the good teams they are yet to play this year with Dorsey in charge, as they were the worst coached offense in the NFL, turning our once great offense into a crap heap.  The only hope to save the season was to get Dorsey out of there.

 

Now, hopefully there is time for the Bills to show who they really are.  It may be hard to rebound quickly from the mess Dorsey alone created, but if I think they will, and prove the latest CW wrong--and last year's too.   No dominant teams in the AFC this year, and now we may be able to see what the Josh Allen led Bills are really made of...again.

 

 
 

 

Of all is this is true, he’ll never get another OC job in NFL.  Let’s 👀

[Freddie's Dead]

Bottom line, the fish rots from the head.  McDummy must still go.  Firing Dorchebag is like covering the rust on a car with Bondo.  It looks good for awhile, until the rust reasserts itself.   

[qwksilver]

CW? Have I had 1 beer too many?

[Blackbeard]

Wth is CW?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, Mister Defense said:

 

In truth, I think he is to blame--he hired someone completely incompetent, who didn't seem to know even the basics of game planning, game changes, formations, at least beyond the very superficial.

 

Was there an extensive interview process involved?  It doesn't seem there was, and that maybe Dorsey was just put into the position.

 

And I definitely blame McDermott for not firing him as soon as the season ended last year--and then again when the team looked almost exactly the same in their first preseason game.

 

The buck stops with the head coach, in my book. 

 

Let's see how this move, too late maybe?, works, but Sean will be held to account, to some degree if this is a lost season.

 

 

 

It's pretty common practice with all teams to promote from within when coordinators leave for a promotion to HC so it certainly wasn't something never seen before.  Add to that you have Allen advocating openly for Dorsey.  While the NFL isn't nearly as bad as the NBA with players dictating to the front office as to who to sign and hire, I'm also sure the Bills have seen what's happened in Green Bay so didn't want a repeat and alienate Allen by hiring someone else.

 

The Bills had a highly successful offense so unless there's someone out there available who's going to run pretty much the same identical offense as the Bills have been running, you could set things back as now changing schemes likely the rest of the offense coaching staff, and maybe even a handful of players.  Dorsey likely would have gone to the Giants if the Bills weren't going to give him that job so the voice in Allens ear is gone. 

 

You also need to find someone who has a good amount of experience otherwise you have the same thing as you have in Dorsey.  That basically leaves you with a pool of out of work ex coordinators  as this would be a lateral move for any currently employed OC's so they are out or some existing position coach who somehow is going to be much better as an OC than Dorsey did.  If you're going that route you may as well stick with Dorsey.  Or you hire some hot shot college coach and somehow hope his game will translate to the NFL flawlessly which also doesn't happen very often.

 

In hindsight it's easy to blame McD and for those who never liked McD to begin with this is great for them to complain about.  But really not much different done here than done with many other teams on a regular basis.

[WotAGuy]

I’m convinced.  Dorsey needs to be fired. Who wants to go in on a billboard with me?

[VW82]

I will admit I liked the plan to draft Kincaid and use more 12 personnel concepts and 11 with Kincaid in the slot to better protect Josh. It could still work imo with better play calling. We're not as one dimensional playing like that.

 

But we still need to play spread a lot of the time too and we often didn't find the right balance or even recognize when it was time to change course. Game planning has to be part of the conversation re our poor starts.

 

But I disagree with putting everything on Dorsey. Josh has got to take some blame. His poor/slow decision making has led to turnovers and killed drives. He's still rifling the football sometimes leading to drops. 

 

Our Oline with Morse is never going to be a strong running team. We're built to pass. We have to be better. 

 

 

[Mister Defense]

6 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I will admit I liked the plan to draft Kincaid and use more 12 personnel concepts and 11 with Kincaid in the slot to better protect Josh. It could still work imo with better play calling. We're not as one dimensional playing like that.

 

But we still need to play spread a lot of the time too and we often didn't find the right balance or even recognize when it was time to change course. Game planning has to be part of the conversation re our poor starts.

 

But I disagree with putting everything on Dorsey. Josh has got to take some blame. His poor/slow decision making has led to turnovers and killed drives. He's still rifling the football sometimes leading to drops. 

 

Our Oline with Morse is never going to be a strong running team. We're built to pass. We have to be better. 

 

 

 

 

But what are the reasons for the regression we have seen in Allen the last two years?

 

Can it be because of what some analysts have been saying, that Dorsey does not scheme his players open, that he doesn't use motion often (though they are one of the best in the league when doing so) or put Allen under center often though they are much better when doing so, one of the best),  or  maybe because they don't use the running backs well/enough, whether in the running game or passing game, that the middle of the field has mostly been a no man's land for the Bills under Dorsey, etcetera etcetera?

 

Can it be, possibly, that what you say about Allen is just him trying to overcome these fundamental flaws in the offense, and doing things that he normally would not do, just to keep them in games? As the offense is so inept, he sees this as the only way out?

 

Wouldn't that be possible, likely even?

 

 

[LeGOATski]

35 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I will admit I liked the plan to draft Kincaid and use more 12 personnel concepts and 11 with Kincaid in the slot to better protect Josh. It could still work imo with better play calling. We're not as one dimensional playing like that.

 

But we still need to play spread a lot of the time too and we often didn't find the right balance or even recognize when it was time to change course. Game planning has to be part of the conversation re our poor starts.

 

But I disagree with putting everything on Dorsey. Josh has got to take some blame. His poor/slow decision making has led to turnovers and killed drives. He's still rifling the football sometimes leading to drops. 

 

Our Oline with Morse is never going to be a strong running team. We're built to pass. We have to be better. 

 

 

Agreed. The great thing about 12 personnel is it's versatility, or that it's "multiple"...and Joe Brady is known for disguising things with those multiple sets.

 

So, maybe, hopefully, we see better use of the double TE set from Brady.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Mister Defense said:

 

 

Watch it again--they immediately seemed to have no answers on offense, not how to protect Allen from the blitz, with almost no easy passes for Allen no clue on line protection schemes, almost no runs--and almost no variety in running plays...

 

It was like Dorsey was playing his Madden game for a few months, against someone who had been playing it for years.

 

Just like this year, I think some are not seeing the forest through the trees...

 

Just like Harty, Sherfield, Knox, Davis, Murray...are not likely on actual precipitous declines, but are symptoms of an extremely dysfunctional offense, coordinator.  One of the most important reasons for firing Dorsey now--if not the Bills would likely make some very bad personnel in the off season, as they don't know what their players are capable of now.

 

Hopefully there is time to at least get this aspect right now.

 

 

 

 

The offense in that Bengals game could have been called a lot better for sure but when you can’t run and are getting beat consistently on the line the offensive coordinator can only do so much. Chan Gailey was a master of smoke and mirrors play calling and even he could only mask deficiencies so much when the offensive line was overwhelmed.

[Mister Defense]

After one game the Bills offense now have an identity developing.

 

 

This is the Bills, what they should have been all along:

 

--Using the middle of the field all game long, with players looking Josh's way or Josh hitting them in stride, letting them run and run.

 

--An extremely physical offense and defense, with both lines dominating all game long, and feeding off each other. Ditto for the special teams.

 

--The running game finally being used effectively, with diversified, creative plays, and the run used late in the game to secure the lead.  With THREE running backs, three, making big plays, a difference.

 

--and Allen running the show, expertly, with precision--and with confidence again, confident that when they execute well, they will win.

 

And this against one of the best defenses in the NFL, a dominant D--and only a few days removed from a dramatic and major change.

 

 

And now the offense will get better and better, for the first time this year, as they replace the things that were not working well with things that do.

 

 

The Bills looked like a Super Bowl contender again tonight. They had fun again because their hard work payed off.

 

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by Mister Defense

[Mister Defense]

18 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

The offense in that Bengals game could have been called a lot better for sure but when you can’t run and are getting beat consistently on the line the offensive coordinator can only do so much. Chan Gailey was a master of smoke and mirrors play calling and even he could only mask deficiencies so much when the offensive line was overwhelmed.

 

They ran the ball 10-11 times the entire game, a typical Dorsey like running day.  Backs averaged about 3.5, but their lead back, Singletarry, 4.3.

 

No reason to stop running. 

 

The backs ran eleven times.  The Bills were so one dimensional, so predictable, the middle of the field now a barren wasteland, the receivers running the same ol' routes repeatedly, the running game a non-factor, simply not used, very little use of motion and various formations........

 

You say that the "offensive coordinator can only so do much"?  What exactly did Dorsey do then, if he wasn't working on these things?  Those seem like pretty basic things for an OC in the NFL to know and do well, things he likely would have some hand in as the offensive coordinator, don't you think?

 

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by Mister Defense

[Success]

6 hours ago, Blackbeard said:

Wth is CW?

 

Conventional wisdom.

 

[ToGoGo]

Bravo to OP. Absolutely NAILED it. Very rare to see, especially on this board. 
 

Some posters still trying to pin it on McD somehow since they’re so invested in that. Will sound pathetic by the end of the regular season. 
 

Another reason we may shock everyone the rest of the schedule is that teams have not studied Brady’s offense. They don’t know what’s coming. That’s why we just worked the Jets defense. We might stun the Eagles now. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

We also need to face the reality that the Bills defense was owned in all three meetings against the Bengals as well dating back to the Hamlin game. Given how the two most recent meetings went I absolutely believe the Bills were well on their way to giving up a second TD to start that game before Hamlin went down. So that is three straight games against the Bengals that all started TD, TD for their offense. That is unacceptable. On top of that it has always felt like the Bengals could get meaningful yards and a scoring drive whenever they really needed it. The drives they wouldn't get points were more about their own miscues rather than the Bills D forcing them into bad situations. 

 

Bengals are an all-around bad match up for the Bills right now for whatever reason. 

[bmur66]

Not replacing Daboll with a legitimate proven NFL coordinator was a crime. Maybe the Bills prefer to promote from within and thought they were doing the right thing. We will see how they deal with the DC position next year. No way McD can continue to do both successfully. 

[Livinginthepast]

27 minutes ago, bmur66 said:

Not replacing Daboll with a legitimate proven NFL coordinator was a crime. Maybe the Bills prefer to promote from within and thought they were doing the right thing. We will see how they deal with the DC position next year. No way McD can continue to do both successfully. 

This is the most shameful part of the whole episode with Dorsey. I really think Beane and McD did a huge disrespect to Dabol after he left assuming that anybody could just step in and fill the role with their "Ferrari" like offense but they picked a guy who preferred to drive an automatic Toyota Corolla and acted as such in the role. The results of this became evident after the first few games last year. It was like a subtle slide into mediocrity for this offense as the playcalling became more bland and the opposing defenses figured it out. As the OP said by playoff time even a team led by a backup like the Dolphins pushed us to near defeat and the Bengals? Its as if they had been given our entire offensive playbook before that game. We may not make the playoffs this year and Brady may not be the answer but one thing is for sure, Vanilla Dorsey had to go!

[Tim Tindale]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

We also need to face the reality that the Bills defense was owned in all three meetings against the Bengals as well dating back to the Hamlin game. Given how the two most recent meetings went I absolutely believe the Bills were well on their way to giving up a second TD to start that game before Hamlin went down. So that is three straight games against the Bengals that all started TD, TD for their offense. That is unacceptable. On top of that it has always felt like the Bengals could get meaningful yards and a scoring drive whenever they really needed it. The drives they wouldn't get points were more about their own miscues rather than the Bills D forcing them into bad situations. 

 

Bengals are an all-around bad match up for the Bills right now for whatever reason. 

My observation is that this McDermott/Frazier defense struggles when teams are content to work 5-7 yards and in (a lot like our game plan against the Jets).  Get the running game working, get to second and manageable, 3rd and short, make the run and pass viable, utilize play action and misdirection, repeat, sustain long drives.
 

Burrow is literally the master at this type of offense, in my opinion, given his decision-making and accuracy. Death by a million cuts. And what the Bengals are currently able to do, but probably will not be able to do as consistently after Higgins leaves for the big contract, is convert the 3rd and long after a penalty takes them out of the 5-7 yards and in offense.

 

In my view, this is what is killing the Bills in these matchups. They (finally) get the Bengals off-script due to a penalties or a first down stop, and Burrow-Higgins delivers a big play. 
 

I think getting a healthy Milano back AND Higgins gone likely changes the dynamic here next year. As we have learned as Bills fans, when your stars eat up all your cap and the roster ages, your second guys (#2 WR, #2 CB, etc) that are middle to late round picks really start to matter to game outcomes. 

[Mister Defense]

13 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

Bravo to OP. Absolutely NAILED it. Very rare to see, especially on this board. 
 

Some posters still trying to pin it on McD somehow since they’re so invested in that. Will sound pathetic by the end of the regular season. 
 

Another reason we may shock everyone the rest of the schedule is that teams have not studied Brady’s offense. They don’t know what’s coming. That’s why we just worked the Jets defense. We might stun the Eagles now. 

Thanks a lot, I appreciate it.

 

I had wanted to post these ideas, minus the yet to come Dorsey firing, before the Bills played the Bengals again this year, but thought it may be too negative (for me at least) before a huge game.  But I felt strongly that the Bills would only win with several lucky breaks, as their offense was broken by Dorsey. And I was sick and tired of people still talking about that playoff game with that fundamentally wrong analysis for the Bills' performance.  The more people believe that stuff the harder it becomes to fix the real problems.

 

And I agree with your last point--and even the Bills themselves don't know!  This is now a work in progress--an offense that will improve and diversify, and that can finally became the great (retooled) offense we had all hoped for.  They were the most diverse on offense they had been all year, and the barren wasteland for this team, the middle of the field, came alive again.  More to come.

 

If that happens, even with the almost comically shocking defensive injuries, the Bills will be one of the best teams in the NFL by January--or sooner...

 

 

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

We also need to face the reality that the Bills defense was owned in all three meetings against the Bengals as well dating back to the Hamlin game. Given how the two most recent meetings went I absolutely believe the Bills were well on their way to giving up a second TD to start that game before Hamlin went down. So that is three straight games against the Bengals that all started TD, TD for their offense. That is unacceptable. On top of that it has always felt like the Bengals could get meaningful yards and a scoring drive whenever they really needed it. The drives they wouldn't get points were more about their own miscues rather than the Bills D forcing them into bad situations. 

 

Bengals are an all-around bad match up for the Bills right now for whatever reason. 

 

 

I disagree strongly, think the Bills would have cleaned their clocks in Cinci a few weeks ago if they had even a competent OC, with a solid game plan and ability to make adjustments.  The Bengals gave up monster yards on the ground in the two games that followed including over 150 to ol' Devin Singletary.

 

The defense was stifling that team after a choppy start, in fact dominated them, but the Bills' offense could not kick it into gear before it was too late--again.

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by Mister Defense

[Mister Defense]

On 11/19/2023 at 3:21 PM, zow2 said:

I didn’t finish the E-book that is the initial post. But the Bills came into the game overconfident, no energy, thinking they could just show up and win.  Meanwhile the Bengals were seething mad that they didn’t have the home game, had a chip on their shoulder, had energy and schemed up a great game. It was lost from the moment the ball was kicked off.

 

Have you reconsidered your analysis of that game, AD,  seeing the immediate and dramatic changes that took place in the offense once Dorsey was gone? I cannot recall one time when this current team had the mentality you spoke of above.  It is just another piece of the nonsensical CW from that game--and that continued into this season. But yes, a team starting off the game, seeing things fall apart immediately, may look like a team with with the awful mindset that you define.

 

As it wasn't what you say at all, or maybe a better way to put it is that they had the energy, motivation, and talent to dominate the Bengals, but had no answers on offense because of an immensely incompetent coordinator. In that game the Bills soon had that lost, confused, and shocked look on their faces--but it was only because they had been so poorly prepared that week for the game and then game plan itself left them helpless--they were the better team, but couldn't even compete. At home, with the Bills mafia ready to help them take the next step. (It was the same look we all enjoyed immensely on almost every Dallas player on Sunday--but for different reasons.)

 

While the Bills clearly strengthened both lines since that game, I strongly believe that the Bills were a very serious championship contender last year, just like they are now, but last year Dorsey destroyed their chances.

 

This year, he may have again because of their current playoff position and losses, and because they have to get things clicking on all offensive cylinders at a rapid rate, with less than half the season to work with. But they are clearly becoming the  dominant team I expected them to be, quickly.

 

But to deny that Dorsey was the reason for the way the Bills looked late last season, which was the same way they looked in preseason, and then again and again this season seems very faulty.

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Mister Defense