Allen and judgement turnovers

[WIDE LEFT]

Any QB’s turnover issue really requires more nuanced analysis than is generally given. The REAL turnover problem is the “judgement” turnovers, which generally fall into two categories - interceptions thrown where the QB doesn’t read the coverages, throws interception on a pass play that is covered. A subset of this is just an errant throw to an open receiver. The second category is holding the ball too long, not sensing and/or reading the pressure - resulting in a strip sack. For all the national media whining about Allen’s turnovers after Monday’s game misses the point that after 4 quarters of play Allen had a grand total of ONE judgement turnover - his 2nd interception. His first “ interception” was a perfectly thrown pass to an open WR.

 

A non judgement turnover is generally less problematic- fumbled snap, ball punched out on a designed QB run etc. These things happen to all players, and a QB’s judgement really not an issues in these type of TOS.

 

BUT - Allen has a fairly unique and troubling problem with non judgement turnovers. I can only speculate that he gets too hyped up in big pressure situations & fails to execute routine things. Minnesota game last year - ball on 1 yard line, game in hand. Allen has taken thousands of snaps in his career, but at this very big moment fumbles a routine snap that went directly into his hands. Jets game this year, big moment, in control of game in the 4th quarter and he fumbles away a routine shotgun snap. Again he has handled thousands of these, but again a pressure  moment and he messes up the routine. And Mondays game - again he completely mishandles a routine handoff in a huge, pressure moment. This is a pattern here, and it’s a BIG (and fairly unique) problem.

[Low Positive]

7 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

Any QB’s turnover issue really requires more nuanced analysis than is generally given. The REAL turnover problem is the “judgement” turnovers, which generally fall into two categories - interceptions thrown where the QB doesn’t read the coverages, throws interception on a pass play that is covered. A subset of this is just an errant throw to an open receiver. The second category is holding the ball too long, not sensing and/or reading the pressure - resulting in a strip sack. For all the national media whining about Allen’s turnovers after Monday’s game misses the point that after 4 quarters of play Allen had a grand total of ONE judgement turnover - his 2nd interception. His first “ interception” was a perfectly thrown pass to an open WR.

 

A non judgement turnover is generally less problematic- fumbled snap, ball punched out on a designed QB run etc. These things happen to all players, and a QB’s judgement really not an issues in these type of TOS.

 

BUT - Allen has a fairly unique and troubling problem with non judgement turnovers. I can only speculate that he gets too hyped up in big pressure situations & fails to execute routine things. Minnesota game last year - ball on 1 yard line, game in hand. Allen has taken thousands of snaps in his career, but at this very big moment fumbles a routine snap that went directly into his hands. Jets game this year, big moment, in control of game in the 4th quarter and he fumbles away a routine shotgun snap. Again he has handled thousands of these, but again a pressure  moment and he messes up the routine. And Mondays game - again he completely mishandles a routine handoff in a huge, pressure moment. This is a pattern here, and it’s a BIG (and fairly unique) problem.

He's not alone there. Tua fumbles snaps in pressure moments often enough to call it a pattern. In Josh's case, in all of those plays that you cite, he started running the play before he got the ball. 

[SoCal Deek]

The 2023 version of Josh is a total mental mess. You can over analyze it to death if you want, but it has all the signs of a guy who isn’t in the moment, in the moment. His head is clearly elsewhere. 

[BuffaloRebound]

He used to tuck it and run when he was confused. Now he double clutches then throws late to unopen Receivers.  

[Bob Jones]

12 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The 2023 version of Josh is a total mental mess. You can over analyze it to death if you want, but it has all the signs of a guy who isn’t in the moment, in the moment. His head is clearly elsewhere. 

Yep. And the irony is that before the season started he came out and publicly proclaimed that, and I'm paraphrasing here because I don’t remember the exact quote, "I'm going to really be concentrating on my game this year."

[EasternOHBillsFan]

18 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The 2023 version of Josh is a total mental mess. You can over analyze it to death if you want, but it has all the signs of a guy who isn’t in the moment, in the moment. His head is clearly elsewhere. 

 

That's why Dorsey got fired! Sheer incompetence, not doing his job. He destroyed his confidence. Putting it all on Josh's shoulders is asinine and wrong,

[MPL]

4 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:

18 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The 2023 version of Josh is a total mental mess. You can over analyze it to death if you want, but it has all the signs of a guy who isn’t in the moment, in the moment. His head is clearly elsewhere. 

Yep. And the irony is that before the season started he came out and publicly proclaimed that, and I'm paraphrasing here because I don’t remember the exact quote, "I'm going to really be concentrating on my game this year."

I think it was, "I've never been more focused on football than I am right now." 

He's in his head — thinking too much — not playing, not reacting, not having fun. I've seen Allen play lights out in enough big games to not reduce it to saying he doesn't play well when it matters. But there's something terribly wrong this year and anyone's guess is as good as mine. 

[90sBills]

5 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

Yep. And the irony is that before the season started he came out and publicly proclaimed that, and I'm paraphrasing here because I don’t remember the exact quote, "I'm going to really be concentrating on my game this year."

This was a red flag for me in the offseason. 

[Buffalo Streaker]

6 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

He used to tuck it and run when he was confused. Now he double clutches then throws late to unopen Receivers.  

Spot on!  You can see it time and time again this season.  Coached the instincts right out of him.

[WotAGuy]

I would have problems focusing at work if I had a Hollywood starlet for a GF and a few hundred mill coming in. Hell, I’d probably be dead. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Does anyone think a quarterback can throw the ball too fast on some routes?

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Does anyone think a quarterback can throw the ball too fast on some routes?

 

Yes. And he did on the first pick the other night. Gabe should still catch it. No question. But Josh didn't need to put as much as he did on that throw. 

[90sBills]

2 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Does anyone think a quarterback can throw the ball too fast on some routes?

That’s how some overthrows happen.

 

I don’t see that happening with Allen. I think sometimes his reads are late and he tries to make up that time with his arm. Throwing it as hard as he can to beat the defenders. Sometimes it works. Sometimes the defenders win. Sometimes it gets there too hot to handle or not at a premium position for the receiver to get max yac.

 

The fix is to identify open receivers quicker and make throws that are conducive to success. 

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

The 2023 version of Josh is a total mental mess. You can over analyze it to death if you want, but it has all the signs of a guy who isn’t in the moment, in the moment. His head is clearly elsewhere. 

I totally agree.  Mentally he's clearly lost a level of focus. And I'm not going to list all the possibilities as to why.  Only Josh can do this. He's getting conflicting messages from every direction.  Brady has to slow him down some. Simplify the offense and reduce turnover situations. The biggest objective from here on out is somehow re-establishing confidence in himself.  And I'm not talking about the whole team giving him a big hug.  This has to come from Josh, with a sprinkling of help from Brady.

Edited November 16, 2023 by LABILLBACKER

[Mikie2times]

This is my biggest issue with Josh and where I usually disconnect with other people when evaluating him. I see bad interceptions. Like not seeing the defender, throwing it right at him. We saw it back to back weeks. I certainly count those more than a deep shot attempt or a tipped ball.

[ILBillsfan]

i have 5 were bad decisions...two i know the down distance so im ok with the 3rd down long punt/Int...two ball was just off a bit on the pass Diggs snd the knox crosser ...one on a WR and one a bad luck int on the tip vs tampa imo

 

not saying I do not want less turnovers but it's more than just oh it's josh in the moment thing.......hate all you want 26 temas will take Allen in a heart beat and I trust that more

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

"How can you dislike a turnover?!"

[Luka]

Poor route concepts can lead to interceptions as well. There has been lots of double clutching and indecisiveness on Allen's part but we all know what he's capable so I'm inclined to put a lot of the interceptions on play calling.

 

The one thing that Allen certainly can take full blame for is the multitude of fumbles he's been responsible for through out his career. Not sure why coaching hasn't been able to correct that honestly. It's fundamental football. 

[Never NEVER Give-up]

[colin]

he's made horrible mistakes, but vs denver and new england if the d stops either of these trash offenses in the last drive, we win.

 

vs the bengals, it's maybe a stretch but kinkaid not fumbling and we have room to win that game.

 

against jax, we had a garbage time td, but we had a drive where we did a cover zero blitz and let up a big conversion, if we don't give that big conversion we have every chance to win the game.

 

so if we just get stops on the two games vs the worst opponents above, we are 7-3 and cruising.

 

he's been bad turning it over, real bad vs the jets, but better play calls on either side of the ball, just a few, even with the turnovers we are in the driver's seat.

 

the man beater routes vs zone and the hole shot outside play (seems to always be mirrored on both sides according to the talking heads ive seen) need to be thrown out.