THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - On Scapegoats and Five and Five

[billybob71]

OC is a challenge for any team to keep filled, as soon as you find a great one they are gonna get poached after 1 or 2 years of success for a head coaching position, then its back to searching and going through seasons like the Bills are now . If i was an owner and had a great one i would overpay to hopefully keep him, or even better, just hope to hire a brilliant offensive head coach who calls the plays.

[Shaw66]

28 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:

I am in agreement with you on the above. I have been wondering ALL YEAR LONG what is it, exactly, that this team does in practices and meetings, because their play on the field looks like they hardly practice at all. I was flabbergasted at their poor game vs the Bengals when they had TEN DAYS to prepare for it. Did they practice/have meetings for 9 out of those 10 days? Who knows? I suggested that the week prior to that game, ALL of the team should have been made to come in to OBD and sit and watch the Bengals vs 49ers game on Sunday afternoon. Finally, besides Dorsey, JA had a separate QB coach, no? Wasn’t that Joe Brady, our new OC? I would think that the QB coach would be the guy to "fix" Allen's problems, moreso than Dorsey....I mean what else is there for him to do?

I think it's very clear just watching.   Allen was spectacular earlier in the season.   It was so clear - the offense was generating open throwing opportunities on schedule, Allen knew where they were, and he delivered the ball easily and accurately.  For the past five weeks, either the opportunities weren't there, or Allen didn't know where to find them.   Either way, that's on the coordinator (and not the QB coach).   The coordinator has to figure out how to attack this week's defense in a way that can be managed by the QB.  That's his job, and that wasn't happening. 

 

The simple comparison is the Chiefs.  Reid always has an attack designed to work against this week's defense, and his QB is prepared to implement the plan.   Yes, even Reid and the Chiefs don't get it right all the time, but they do often enough, and we all see it. 

 

What did Dorsey do to attack the Broncos?   So far as I could tell, all he did was put Diggs in motion all day long.   And what did that accomplish?   Hard to say; it certainly didn't create mismatches that Diggs could take advantage of. 

 

Again, the way the Bills will have big success if by having an offense that can be executed by one of the most talented QBs of all time.   If Allen and the offense were humming the way it should, we wouldn't be having these conversations, because the Bills would be on top of the league.  

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Bob Jones said:

Coaches tell JA to throw into double or triple coverage? Coaches tell JA to ignore the underneath routes and throw deep downfield when it's 3rd and short? Coaches tell JA to get happy feet and abandon the pocket when there’s no need to? Coaches tell JA to make virtually every throw at full velocity? Coaches tell JA to make inaccurate throws to open receivers? OK, LOL. I'm done here.

Yes, Bob, Josh has done all the things you complain about, but that's Josh.  That's what the coaches have to work with.

 

We've seen Josh NOT throw into double coverage, NOT ignore the underneath routes, STAY in the pocket, throw with TOUCH.   We've seen him throw accurately.   We've seen him do EVERYTHING a great QB does.  He CAN do it, without question.   

 

I have said almost since Josh arrived that of all the great QBs, Josh is most similar to Elway.  Premier physical talent - in fact, Josh is physically better that Elway was.   Elway didn't win Super Bowls until the end of his career, because coaches failed to get him and his game under control.  

 

The answer is not to say that Josh makes mistakes, because without more that implies that the Bills should move on from him.  The Bills should not move on from transcendent talent.  Every great QB needs to be managed.  Elway, Favre, even Manning.  The only answer is to get coaches who can help him realize his greatness. Josh needs to be coached and managed.   He is a supreme talent, and he can and should be executing an offense that is dominant in the league.   It's up to McDermott and his offensive coordinator to reach that objective.   

 

[34-78-83]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, Bob, Josh has done all the things you complain about, but that's Josh.  That's what the coaches have to work with.

 

We've seen Josh NOT throw into double coverage, NOT ignore the underneath routes, STAY in the pocket, throw with TOUCH.   We've seen him throw accurately.   We've seen him do EVERYTHING a great QB does.  He CAN do it, without question.   

 

I have said almost since Josh arrived that of all the great QBs, Josh is most similar to Elway.  Premier physical talent - in fact, Josh is physically better that Elway was.   Elway didn't win Super Bowls until the end of his career, because coaches failed to get him and his game under control.  

 

The answer is not to say that Josh makes mistakes, because without more that implies that the Bills should move on from him.  The Bills should not move on from transcendent talent.  Every great QB needs to be managed.  Elway, Favre, even Manning.  The only answer is to get coaches who can help him realize his greatness. Josh needs to be coached and managed.   He is a supreme talent, and he can and should be executing an offense that is dominant in the league.   It's up to McDermott and his offensive coordinator to reach that objective.   

 

agree with the post overall... For the bolded, that was not the sole reason Elway didn't win one earlier. His overall teams were just nowhere close to the Giants, 49ers and Redskins dominant machines that they faced in 86,87,89. Very similar to the Bills v Washington and the 1st v Dallas Superbowl. We must always remember that football is the ultimate team sport.

[Jrb1979]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, Bob, Josh has done all the things you complain about, but that's Josh.  That's what the coaches have to work with.

 

We've seen Josh NOT throw into double coverage, NOT ignore the underneath routes, STAY in the pocket, throw with TOUCH.   We've seen him throw accurately.   We've seen him do EVERYTHING a great QB does.  He CAN do it, without question.   

 

I have said almost since Josh arrived that of all the great QBs, Josh is most similar to Elway.  Premier physical talent - in fact, Josh is physically better that Elway was.   Elway didn't win Super Bowls until the end of his career, because coaches failed to get him and his game under control.  

 

The answer is not to say that Josh makes mistakes, because without more that implies that the Bills should move on from him.  The Bills should not move on from transcendent talent.  Every great QB needs to be managed.  Elway, Favre, even Manning.  The only answer is to get coaches who can help him realize his greatness. Josh needs to be coached and managed.   He is a supreme talent, and he can and should be executing an offense that is dominant in the league.   It's up to McDermott and his offensive coordinator to reach that objective.   

 

While I agree with most of that, they also need to play to his strengths. He is and never has been that great at reading a defense. Meaning he's not like Manning and seeing what the defense has lined up and call an audible. 

 

What they should be doing is on top of the underneath stuff, add designed runs for him to open up downfield throws. Taking away his running is what made the offense so good  

[Terry Tate]

I don't have as deep a knowledge of football as many posters, but since the 13 seconds game, I don't have very much faith in the coaching staff's ability to take this team to a SB win. This HC showed he can get a team running well, but gameday management, oof. Not everyone can get a team running well, so I accepted that they hoped this would improve with experience, as it sometimes does. With this in mind, taking on more responsibility as DC was the absolute wrong move to make. That effort should have been to focus on the HC tasking that you have not mastered. As they say, 'do your job'. Hard to improve (if it is possible) when you have two jobs. Sean may get there someday, but not in this configuration. It's making him a worse HC.

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

agree with the post overall... For the bolded, that was not the sole reason Elway didn't win one earlier. His overall teams were just nowhere close to the Giants, 49ers and Redskins dominant machines that they faced in 86,87,89. Very similar to the Bills v Washington and the 1st v Dallas Superbowl. We must always remember that football is the ultimate team sport.

Fair enough.  

 

It's not worth arguing about, but I'd suggest that if Elway's game had been under control earlier, the Broncos would have won more, and might very well have been on your list of great teams.  

 

In his first ten seasons, Elway's passer rating was in the 80s once; every other season he was in the 70s or worse.  For his final six seasons he was in the 90s twice and mid- to high-80s  the other four.    Someone got his game his game under control.  Not coincidentally, when Dan Reeves left, Elway improved.   Some will argue, see, the head coach needs to go when the star QB is underperforming, but Reeves was, of course, an offensive coach.   When your HC is a defensive coach, then you need the right OC and you need a HC who gives the OC the reins.  

 

I may as well say it before others do:  Or you need a HC who is an offensive guy. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Shaw66

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

While I agree with most of that, they also need to play to his strengths. He is and never has been that great at reading a defense. Meaning he's not like Manning and seeing what the defense has lined up and call an audible. 

 

 

But this is the job of the QB.   Yes, he may never be a great game manager like Peyton, Brady, or some others, but he has shown that he can be good enough.   When they ran no-huddle a few weeks ago, he was really engaged, and he operated the offense almost flawlessly.  

 

He's not persistently pig-headed, like Cutler was.  He's demonstrated over and over again that he can manage the offense with a high level of effectiveness.    He needs an offense that works. 

 

Look at how stylized the Patriots offense was that Brady ran.   They played a lot of seasons with no great talent at receiver, but they gave Brady options to execute.   Then they had Moss, and they gave Brady options to execute.   Then they had two tight ends.   Then they had that slot receiver guy.  Whatever the style was, Brady knew where the opportunities were.  

 

There is no reason Josh should not have an offense where it's clear where the opportunities.   It's particularly true because his running ability puts a threat on the field that most teams don't have, so the defense has more to worry about.   And it's particularly true that his passing ability is greater than just about every other QB, so that gives the Bills an edge, too.  

 

As I've been saying, when your QB has that talent, your offense has to be top five, and it's the OC's job to get there.  

[Logic]

Thanks for the great writeup, as always.

First, your primary statement is correct. Firing Ken Dorsey was the correct move at this time. It was really the ONLY move. It was not a case of scapegoating, but rather, the only logical decision to be made.

As to the bigger picture (and I guess I'm really just typing out my feelings on the subject because I'm curious to hear yours) : I have always defended Sean McDermott. To have the winning percentage he does -- which ranked first among all Bills coaches coming into this season and, as you pointed out, ranks favorably amongst his peers -- means that he's a good head coach. HOWEVER...

I believe that he may no longer be the right man to lead this Buffalo Bills team. I think it can be simultaneously true that a coach is very good at what he does, AND that he is not the correct man to be leading a certain team at a given point in time, and I fear that may be what has happened in Buffalo. I simply think that the collective history of the Bills under McDermott  -- 13 seconds, all of the trauma of last season, the myriad bumbling losses where they stole defeat from the jaws of victory over the past few years -- has become incredibly heavy on the shoulders of this team, and that the only way to move past it, and thus to reinvigorate the team and inject the fresh energy and enthusiasm and confidence that the players so clearly need, is to turn the page. Heck, to throw the book away and start a completely new one. I just think it's time.

I won't pretend to have a specific pick for who should replace McDermott if he's let go, but I WILL say that I have come to the point where I see the downfall of having a defense-minded head coach in 2023. Quite simply, if the OC he hires is any good, he's going to get poached to be a head coach somewhere else after a season or two. The only way your OC is sticking around for the long haul is if he's not poach-worthy, and if that's the case, it means your offense probably isn't as good as it needs to be. So in a hypothetical world where the Bills keep McDermott, I fear they're in for a perpetual cycle of OC turnover, and thus, offensive instability. The inverse is true if you hire an offense-minded coach, of course, but I think turnover at defensive coordinator is less of a big deal, and besides, teams seemingly hire away good defensive coordinators to be head coaches less often these days, anyway.

Up until this season, I believed that you could still consistently compete for titles with a defense-minded head coach. I still believed that having an elite defense paired with a franchise QB was a recipe for constant championship contention. But if I look around the league now at the teams making the most noise and looking the most dangerous? It's offensive wiz kids across the board. And some of the teams that have great offenses because of their offensive coordinator, instead? Well, those guys (the Ben Johnsons and Bobby Slowiks of the world) are likely to get hired away from those teams this offseason. Besides, the long time calling cards of Sean McDermott? Mental toughness, attention to detail, accountability? I'm just not seeing them on display any more. So if he's not offering those things and he's not offering an elite offense for Josh Allen, what is he offering, exactly? 

McDermott will get the rest of the season here, as he should. But as much as I respect him as both a man and a coach, I've reached the point where I'm ready for a new start. Maximizing the offense is the way to win in the NFL in 2023, and "maximizing the offense" and "Sean McDermott" are just two things that I don't think can realistically co-exist for the Buffalo Bills. I'll always be thankful for what he did here, and I think he still has a lot to offer a young team in need of a reset -- the Carolina Panthers, say. But sometimes it's just time for a change. Unfortunately, I think the Bills have reached that point.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Logic

[blitzboy54]

8 hours ago, Cash said:

It’s weird that the two military veterans were both comparing McD’s “accountability” to military structures, when we’re really talking about public statements in press conferences. Maybe I’m way off, but I don’t think the top brass does much in the way of explaining F-ups to the public when they happen. I was under the impression that that sort of accountability was mostly handled away from the public eye. We fans ARE the public eye. 
 

I forgot to add my two cents about McDermott in my last post, so I’ll do it here. Number one thing for me: I don’t see how firing McD this week gets us into the playoffs this year. If/when we’re mathematically eliminated? Go for it. But as long as there’s a chance of us making a run, we need to maximize that chance. (With the caveat that if he’s lost the team a la Josh McDaniels and the Raiders, he has to go right away. None of us can know that from out here, though.)

 

I wasn’t a McDermott fan from the start, but he generally won me over. @Shaw66 made some great arguments around McD’s leadership and ability to establish a winning culture. And I saw for myself an ability to learn from his mistakes. That’s extremely important to me, because everyone will make mistakes whether you like it or not. As much as I HATED it when he benched Tyrod for Peterman, I ultimately gained some respect for McD in the aftermath. Why? Because he admitted he made a mistake and apologized to the team, and course-corrected afterwards. There are other examples, but this post is long enough already. 
 

With all that said, I think the blunder on Monday night hits the level of a fireable offense pretty much on its own. And to some extent, I think @GunnerBill is right that McD might have too much on his gameday plate. I wouldn’t mind it if he handed off defensive play calling to one of his assistants to let him be just a head coach during the game. 

 

The Military is accountable to the public but that's not really the point I was making. In general there are a lot of analogies made between the military and football. It's a strategic game, it's violent, requires a lot of discipline and there is a hierarchy structure much like rank. After that I think the comparisons very from strained to completely stupid,  but I digress. 

My point is simply about leadership. The best leaders I have ever been around or worked under make it clear through example that it all applies to them too. We are all under the same umbrella. McD has in fact made this his "brand". We are all accountable to each other. I have worked under this structure in practice and quite frankly when done sincerely these are the people you would lie down in traffic for. These are the people that stand up first even though they are in charge and say "THAT WAS ME, I screwed up, I will learn from it and it will not happen again". I cannot stress how hard it is to truly humble yourself that way but when your brand is "accountability" this is the only way it can work.

 

The quickest way to lose the room is to be a hypocrite or seen as a hypocrite on this. The moment the "troops" see you carving out an exception for yourself, it's over. Your credibility is lost forever and can never bee fully restored. 

 

IMO Sean crossed this line with 13 seconds and crossed it again this week. The damage is done. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by blitzboy54

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Imo, the Special Teams gaff was all on Hamlin. His 1st action of the season and he wasn’t listening to or understanding what was transpiring. It’s what happens when you’re not activated all season long. 
If there’s a silver lining, booting Dorsey to the curb had to happen and this started the search for his replacement. College football is nearly complete, so there’s many dossiers to peruse now.

 

You mean the 12 men on the field thing?  I read that Floyd was the guy that didn't come off and was supposed to.

[Figster]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, Bob, Josh has done all the things you complain about, but that's Josh.  That's what the coaches have to work with.

 

We've seen Josh NOT throw into double coverage, NOT ignore the underneath routes, STAY in the pocket, throw with TOUCH.   We've seen him throw accurately.   We've seen him do EVERYTHING a great QB does.  He CAN do it, without question.   

 

I have said almost since Josh arrived that of all the great QBs, Josh is most similar to Elway.  Premier physical talent - in fact, Josh is physically better that Elway was.   Elway didn't win Super Bowls until the end of his career, because coaches failed to get him and his game under control.  

 

The answer is not to say that Josh makes mistakes, because without more that implies that the Bills should move on from him.  The Bills should not move on from transcendent talent.  Every great QB needs to be managed.  Elway, Favre, even Manning.  The only answer is to get coaches who can help him realize his greatness. Josh needs to be coached and managed.   He is a supreme talent, and he can and should be executing an offense that is dominant in the league.   It's up to McDermott and his offensive coordinator to reach that objective.   

 

You hit the nail on the head.

 

Josh Allen plays with a gunslinger mentality. One of the strongest arms the NFL has ever seen. Checking the ball down and taking what the D gives you doesn't come natural to him. Never has, and without the management part of the equation Allen will continue to have a high TD to INT ratio. So lets hope Joe Brady has the balls to get in Allens face and chew him out like Daboll or its all for not IMO.

 

Myself personally Shaw, Josh Allen has all the tools, (and then some) the intelligence, and sees the field as good as the GOAT/ Tom Brady. Its up to Joe Brady now to make it work.   

 

Allen takes responsibility for the firing of Ken Dorsey

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/allen-blames-himself-for-dorsey-firing-but-insists-bills-aren-t-a-broken-team/ar-AA1k2CPH?ocid=xboxntp&cvid=c7db3f0fa75342b89e0cbff46b64e222&ei=14

Edited November 16, 2023 by Figster

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

4 hours ago, blitzboy54 said:

Those I see as platitudes. He’s hiding under “we all have to get better” he says it starts with me but when HE specifically screws up he hides from it. Subtly blames everyone else and tells the media it’s not the time to talk about it. 

This forum has gone full BUFFALO BILLS MESSAGE BOARD type of stupid.

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, billybob71 said:

OC is a challenge for any team to keep filled, as soon as you find a great one they are gonna get poached after 1 or 2 years of success for a head coaching position, then its back to searching and going through seasons like the Bills are now . If i was an owner and had a great one i would overpay to hopefully keep him, or even better, just hope to hire a brilliant offensive head coach who calls the plays.

 

That's what sucks about coordinators.   If you hire a good one, someone steals him away to be their HC.  If you hire a bad one, you suck for a while.  If you hire a mediocre one, forget about your Lombardi dreams.  

 

The key is to hire good one after good one after good one to have sustained success.    That's hard to do. 

[Billsatlastin2018]

He is as bad a game day manager in year 6 as he was in year 1.  Timeouts, clock management, challenges etc. so learning from our mistakes is not for him. 
 

A significant majority of Bills fans believes exactly that. 
 

It is a condition of being a HC, that in addition to leadership indices,you adequately prepare for the upcoming opposition EVERY week. If the assumption is, that you delegate those responsibilities with proper examination and oversight to your assistants, so be it. Dorsey was obviously that and turned into a failure to be able to advance Offensive game plans that Ds figured out and had Bills fans rolling eyes on 3rd & ones from the Shotgun! Finally, the constant chorus of boos was heard at 1BD!

 

HOWEVER, this does not absolve McClapper from END of half/game management decisions! That is simply an essential and critical skill, that few of McDs buffoon predecessors did properly.
 

And he stinks at them! Let me be charitable and say the game I recall where he calibrated the game clock properly was at that rain soaked one in Baltimore at the beginning of the Season, ending in a Game Winning FG at the gun.

 

But there are soooo many failures, where he carries TOs into the locker room, makes stupid mistakes on challenges and end of game TOs.

 

And then there was 13 Seconds & 12 Men Out! These were the most egregious examples of grotesque incompetence, but there have been others. Worse, far worse, is that those 2 examples involved Time Outs! As in dead time, where NADA is rushed and essential knowledge must be imparted and done without mistake.

 

This did not take place… more than once! And therefore, why McClapper must clap off into the sunset!

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

Thanks for the great writeup, as always.

First, your primary statement is correct. Firing Ken Dorsey was the correct move at this time. It was really the ONLY move. It was not a case of scapegoating, but rather, the only logical decision to be made.

As to the bigger picture (and I guess I'm really just typing out my feelings on the subject because I'm curious to hear yours) : I have always defended Sean McDermott. To have the winning percentage he does -- which ranked first among all Bills coaches coming into this season and, as you pointed out, ranks favorably amongst his peers -- means that he's a good head coach. HOWEVER...

I believe that he may no longer be the right man to lead this Buffalo Bills team. I think it can be simultaneously true that a coach is very good at what he does, AND that he is not the correct man to be leading a certain team at a given point in time, and I fear that may be what has happened in Buffalo. I simply think that the collective history of the Bills under McDermott  -- 13 seconds, all of the trauma of last season, the myriad bumbling losses where they stole defeat from the jaws of victory over the past few years -- has become incredibly heavy on the shoulders of this team, and that the only way to move past it, and thus to reinvigorate the team and inject the fresh energy and enthusiasm and confidence that the players so clearly need, is to turn the page. Heck, to throw the book away and start a completely new one. I just think it's time.

I won't pretend to have a specific pick for who should replace McDermott if he's let go, but I WILL say that I have come to the point where I see the downfall of having a defense-minded head coach in 2023. Quite simply, if the OC he hires is any good, he's going to get poached to be a head coach somewhere else after a season or two. The only way your OC is sticking around for the long haul is if he's not poach-worthy, and if that's the case, it means your offense probably isn't as good as it needs to be. So in a hypothetical world where the Bills keep McDermott, I fear they're in for a perpetual cycle of OC turnover, and thus, offensive instability. The inverse is true if you hire an offense-minded coach, of course, but I think turnover at defensive coordinator is less of a big deal, and besides, teams seemingly hire away good defensive coordinators to be head coaches less often these days, anyway.

Up until this season, I believed that you could still consistently compete for titles with a defense-minded head coach. I still believed that having an elite defense paired with a franchise QB was a recipe for constant championship contention. But if I look around the league now at the teams making the most noise and looking the most dangerous? It's offensive wiz kids across the board. And some of the teams that have great offenses because of their offensive coordinator, instead? Well, those guys (the Ben Johnsons and Bobby Slowiks of the world) are likely to get hired away from those teams this offseason. Besides, the long time calling cards of Sean McDermott? Mental toughness, attention to detail, accountability? I'm just not seeing them on display any more. So if he's not offering those things and he's not offering an elite offense for Josh Allen, what is he offering, exactly? 

McDermott will get the rest of the season here, as he should. But as much as I respect him as both a man and a coach, I've reached the point where I'm ready for a new start. Maximizing the offense is the way to win in the NFL in 2023, and "maximizing the offense" and "Sean McDermott" are just two things that I don't think can realistically co-exist for the Buffalo Bills. I'll always be thankful for what he did here, and I think he still has a lot to offer a young team in need of a reset -- the Carolina Panthers, say. But sometimes it's just time for a change. Unfortunately, I think the Bills have reached that point.

Thanks.  I love your stuff, and this is particularly good.  

 

Let me start with a couple of general things:

 

1.  I haven't been writing for a lot of reasons, but one of the reasons is that I've concluded that I don't know what I'm talking about.  I don't know how to manage a football team, how to coach a football, or anything else related to football beyond the peewee level.   And that's not an admission that I'm wrong and others are right, because I don't think anyone else does either.  Well, maybe you.  GunnerBill is the only one here who says things that make me believe that he actually does know what he's talking about at a level that is somewhat comparable to people in the actual NFL industry.  

 

2.  I'm absolutely flabbergasted that 80% of respondents to your poll want to replace McDermott.  

 

Okay, responding to you:

 

I hear what you're saying, I feel it, and you may be correct.  I don't know if you're correct because as I said, I don't know what I'm talking about.  

 

I agree that you can have a good coach who isn't right for the team and the situation.   Dan Reeves, who I've mentioned in connection with Elway.  Tony Dungy with Peyton.  I'm sure there are others.  Andy Reid, possibly, with the Eagles.  Reid, of course, is interesting both ways - the Eagles won the Super Bowl after he left, and the Chiefs won when they got him.  On the other hand, no one can say whether Reeves and Elway or Dungy and Manning would have won if the team had kept the coach.  It's unknowable.  We can have opinions, but it's unknowable.  

 

I haven't been reading much lately about the Bills, so I don't know where this talk is coming from that McDermott has lost the locker room.  I don't know.  But if he has, that's serious, and that would certainly make me think more seriously about making a change.  

 

As for your whole offense/defense thing, I get it, but I'm guessing you're behind the curve on this.   First, you left out DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh, two defensive gurus who are having success.  Jets would be eating up a lot of teams if they hadn't lost Rodgers.  The defense is superb.   So, I don't think it's as simple as you say.   Second, offenses are struggling more and more every season, and I'm pretty sure the NFL is going to be making rule changes to boost scoring.  I'd bet that the rule about illegal man downfield will be changed this off-season, because it is being enforced in a way that hurts offenses even though almost every infraction that is called had nothing to do with the success of the play.   That's just an example.   The NFL is going to do things, as they have in the past, to make offense easier.   When that happens, any old boy will be able to be an offensive coordinator, and the hot commodity will be the defensive wizard.  Chasing the current winning formula is rarely a winning strategy in the NFL, because by the time you get up to speed doing what the other teams have done, the league has moved on.   

 

I hear you about the team's failures at critical moments, and I agree that that has to be counted against McDermott.  But the mistakes of the past do not predict the future.   He's had lots of successes in the past, too, but in times like these, fans forget them.   So, when the Bills overcame a meltdown to come from behind against the Rams, the players get the credit, not the coach, but when they don't overcome a meltdown, the coach gets the blame.   

 

So, even though what you say makes sense, I don't think it's the right analysis.   McDermott is under 50 years old, is devoted to life-long learning, and is no doubt his own toughest critic.  He is not going to stand still.  He will be a better coach five years from now than he is today.  The question cannot be answered by saying the team needs an offensive minded head coach.  It can't be answered by pointing out the mistakes of the past.  The question has to be answered by a thorough analysis of what it takes to win in the NFL and asking whether McDermott has it.   And I can't answer that question.  

 

I do know one thing:   When you have a talent like Josh Allen, if must find a way to win championships.   Like Montana and Brady and Peyton and Rodgers and Ben and Elway, he gives you an advantage over just about everyone in the league, an advantage that is so large that you should be a regular winner.  And that means, as I've been saying, that when you have an Allen, you have to have a top-5 offense or you're screwing.  Allen's team should be among the pre-season favorites to win the Super Bowl every season, and he should play in multiple Super Bowls.   

 

The responsibility for that success falls on two people:  HC and OC.   Now, it's nice, if you have both in one guy, but it's not easy.  Even if you have a genius head coach in terms of offense, if he isn't a personality fit with the QB, it doesn't matter.  And, by the way, Brady's mentor at the Pats was Belichick, not McDaniel, another argument suggesting that it won't work with a defensive head coach.  

 

So, if I'm Terry Pegula, I want to know if McDermott and Josh are bonded, if McDermott can keep Josh locked in to being the best he can be.  It certainly hasn't happened this year, but I am convinced that Dorsey really did block Allen's path to success.   Josh is the key to success for the next ten years.  If McDermott is the guy to bring out the best in Josh, I'm keeping Sean.  If not, I guess I'm looking for a replacement.  

 

But as I said, I don't know. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Logic]

26 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  I love your stuff, and this is particularly good.  

 

Let me start with a couple of general things:

 

1.  I haven't been writing for a lot of reasons, but one of the reasons is that I've concluded that I don't know what I'm talking about.  I don't know how to manage a football team, how to coach a football, or anything else related to football beyond the peewee level.   And that's not an admission that I'm wrong and others are right, because I don't think anyone else does either.  Well, maybe you.  GunnerBill is the only one here who says things that make me believe that he actually does know what he's talking about at a level that is somewhat comparable to people in the actual NFL industry.  

 

2.  I'm absolutely flabbergasted that 80% of respondents to your poll want to replace McDermott.  

 

Okay, responding to you:

 

I hear what you're saying, I feel it, and you may be correct.  I don't know if you're correct because as I said, I don't know what I'm talking about.  

 

I agree that you can have a good coach who isn't right for the team and the situation.   Dan Reeves, who I've mentioned in connection with Elway.  Tony Dungy with Peyton.  I'm sure there are others.  Andy Reid, possibly, with the Eagles.  Reid, of course, is interesting both ways - the Eagles won the Super Bowl after he left, and the Chiefs won when they got him.  On the other hand, no one can say whether Reeves and Elway or Dungy and Manning would have won if the team had kept the coach.  It's unknowable.  We can have opinions, but it's unknowable.  

 

I haven't been reading much lately about the Bills, so I don't know where this talk is coming from that McDermott has lost the locker room.  I don't know.  But if he has, that's serious, and that would certainly make me think more seriously about making a change.  

 

As for your whole offense/defense thing, I get it, but I'm guessing you're behind the curve on this.   First, you left out DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh, two defensive gurus who are having success.  Jets would be eating up a lot of teams if they hadn't lost Rodgers.  The defense is superb.   So, I don't think it's as simple as you say.   Second, offenses are struggling more and more every season, and I'm pretty sure the NFL is going to be making rule changes to boost scoring.  I'd bet that the rule about illegal man downfield will be changed this off-season, because it is being enforced in a way that hurts offenses even though almost every infraction that is called had nothing to do with the success of the play.   That's just an example.   The NFL is going to do things, as they have in the past, to make offense easier.   When that happens, any old boy will be able to be an offensive coordinator, and the hot commodity will be the defensive wizard.  Chasing the current winning formula is rarely a winning strategy in the NFL, because by the time you get up to speed doing what the other teams have done, the league has moved on.   

 

I hear you about the team's failures at critical moments, and I agree that that has to be counted against McDermott.  But the mistakes of the past do not predict the future.   He's had lots of successes in the past, too, but in times like these, fans forget them.   So, when the Bills overcame a meltdown to come from behind against the Rams, the players get the credit, not the coach, but when they don't overcome a meltdown, the coach gets the blame.   

 

So, even though what you say makes sense, I don't think it's the right analysis.   McDermott is under 50 years old, is devoted to life-long learning, and is no doubt his own toughest critic.  He is not going to stand still.  He will be a better coach five years from now than he is today.  The question cannot be answered by saying the team needs an offensive minded head coach.  It can't be answered by pointing out the mistakes of the past.  The question has to be answered by a thorough analysis of what it takes to win in the NFL and asking whether McDermott has it.   And I can't answer that question.  

 

I do know one thing:   When you have a talent like Josh Allen, if must find a way to win championships.   Like Montana and Brady and Peyton and Rodgers and Ben and Elway, he gives you an advantage over just about everyone in the league, an advantage that is so large that you should be a regular winner.  And that means, as I've been saying, that when you have an Allen, you have to have a top-5 offense or you're screwing.  Allen's team should be among the pre-season favorites to win the Super Bowl every season, and he should play in multiple Super Bowls.   

 

The responsibility for that success falls on two people:  HC and OC.   Now, it's nice, if you have both in one guy, but it's not easy.  Even if you have a genius head coach in terms of offense, if he isn't a personality fit with the QB, it doesn't matter.  And, by the way, Brady's mentor at the Pats was Belichick, not McDaniel, another argument suggesting that it won't work with a defensive head coach.  

 

So, if I'm Terry Pegula, I want to know if McDermott and Josh are bonded, if McDermott can keep Josh locked in to being the best he can be.  It certainly hasn't happened this year, but I am convinced that Dorsey really did block Allen's path to success.   Josh is the key to success for the next ten years.  If McDermott is the guy to bring out the best in Josh, I'm keeping Sean.  If not, I guess I'm looking for a replacement.  

 

But as I said, I don't know. 

 

 

Great response. Thanks.

I just specifically wanted to mention that the two examples you mentioned -- Demeco Ryans and Robert Saleh -- don't necessarily refute my overall point, in my opinion.

The former is succeeding in large part because his offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, the latest guy from the Shanahan, McDaniel, McVay, Lafleur group, seems to be a brilliant offensive mind. The things he's doing with a rookie quarterback and an underwhelming offensive cast of players is a sight to behold. The only problem is that it's reasonably likely that Slowik will be hired away to be a head coach after this season or next. I don't mean to minimize Ryans' effect as the head man for the Texans, and his defense his great, too, but make no mistake: Without that explosive offense, I doubt they're outgunning the Bengals of the world. And if Slowik IS hired away this offseason? That means the impressive young QB will already be forced to learn a second offensive coordinator's playbook in just his second season.

The latter is a perfect example of my worry: the Jets have an absolutely elite defense. Perhaps the best in franchise history. And yet, there's a reasonable likelihood that they're going to miss the playoffs. Why? They're bad on offense. Sure, Aaron Rodgers is out for the year. But that's not always a death sentence. Quality offensive play callers can still find ways to make it work more than what the Jets have done this year. Also, we all ASSUME the Jets would be shredding the NFL if Rodgers is healthy, but we simply don't know that to be true for sure. When I look at the Jets, I see an elite defensive coach leading a team with an elite defense and a moribund offense. If Saleh fails as head coach, it will almost certainly be because the Jets could never consistently field a respectable offense.

I absolutely did not subscribe to the "offensive guys are better head coaches in the modern NFL than defensive guys" theory until this season. I stubbornly refused to believe it. I looked at guys like Pete Carroll and Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, and concluded that leadership is what matters most. But then I thought: well, exactly how many championships have Carroll, Tomlin, and Harbaugh won since 2013? Zero. I simply fear that the "my offensive coordinator keeps getting hired out from under me" phenomenon is too much of an ongoing disruption to offenses to not be a factor which significantly hinders teams' offensive success. And since offensive success seems to be what the NFL wants to emphasize above all else, this is a fatal problem.

Put simply: if the NFL is going to lean ever more heavily into offense -- and I get what you're saying about defenses counter-punching in the years to come, and I agree -- and if the writing seems to be on the wall that "the best offense with the best QB has the best chance at the Super Bowl each year" (which is certainly what the Reid/Mahomes dominance seems to point to)...then I want the Buffalo Bills to follow that recipe. The good news is that they already have one of the two elements needed! Not many teams can say that! They have Josh Allen, who can lay reasonable claim -- when he is playing at his best, that is -- to being the best in the game. It is simply my belief that so long as Sean McDermott is the head coach of the Bills, they're never realistically going to have the second element: the best possible offense. 

I could be wrong. Joe Brady could be the guy, or McDermott could hire some hot young offensive wiz kid as OC this offseason, and the Bills offense could be gangbusters again. But then we're back to the "poaching" problem. How long do the Bills get to have Brady or Wiz Kid X before he gets hired away? Pairing Allen with an elite offensive mind as head coach eliminates the "perpetual turnover on offense" problem and, at least theoretically, gives him a 10 year window of great play-calling instead of a series of one and two year windows interspersed with turnover.

You may be right, I may be behind the curve. In actuality, though, I feel that it's the BILLS who are behind the curve here. I think offense is the present and the future, and Sean McDermott is simply never going to be Mr Offense.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Logic

[blitzboy54]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

This forum has gone full BUFFALO BILLS MESSAGE BOARD type of stupid.

I’m very sorry you feel that way. Most fans I talk to either agree or can understand why someone would see it that way. 
 

really appreciate your contribution though. 

[CincyBillsFan]

20 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Under Dorsey Josh has regressed.  It doesn't matter what the record is or what happened with 12 men on the field Monday night.  This franchise will live or die, win or lose based on how #17 plays.  

 

If Dorsey can't get the best out of Josh, even if it is primarily Josh's fault, and I'm not making that claim, then they need to get someone in there who can.  It's as simple as that. 

 

Better to do it now and see what Brady can do than wait to the end of the year and then start to look.

Included in this has to be a change in what the Bills prioritize in the draft & FA going forward.  The offense must be built to take advantage of the special skills that Allen brings to the table.  The Bills have refused to commit high end draft choices and FA signings to the O line and we're seeing the result.  The Bills have also failed to invest properly in high end skill position players. 

 

Look at the Eagles with Hurts, Miami with Tua, KC with Mahomes, Cincy with Burrow, Dallas with Dak, the Lions with Giff and the Jags with Lawrence.  And soon you will be seeing it in Houston with Stroud.  Hell, SF built a spectacular offense without the QB in place and then traded away a kings ransom to land their version of Allen.  Yea it didn't work out for them but it wasn't for lack of their prioritizing their offense.

 

 

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

Great response. Thanks.

I just specifically wanted to mention that the two examples you mentioned -- Demeco Ryans and Robert Saleh -- don't necessarily refute my overall point, in my opinion.

The former is succeeding in large part because his offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, the latest guy from the Shanahan, McDaniel, McVay, Lafleur group, seems to be a brilliant offensive mind. The things he's doing with a rookie quarterback and an underwhelming offensive cast of players is a sight to behold. The only problem is that it's reasonably likely that Slowik will be hired away to be a head coach after this season or next. I don't mean to minimize Ryans' effect as the head man for the Texans, and his defense his great, too, but make no mistake: Without that explosive offense, I doubt they're outgunning the Bengals of the world. And if Slowik IS hired away this offseason? That means the impressive young QB will already be forced to learn a second offensive coordinator's playbook in just his second season.

The latter is a perfect example of my worry: the Jets have an absolutely elite defense. Perhaps the best in franchise history. And yet, there's a reasonable likelihood that they're going to miss the playoffs. Why? They're bad on offense. Sure, Aaron Rodgers is out for the year. But that's not always a death sentence. Quality offensive play callers can still find ways to make it work more than what the Jets have done this year. Also, we all ASSUME the Jets would be shredding the NFL if Rodgers is healthy, but we simply don't know that to be true for sure. When I look at the Jets, I see an elite defensive coach leading a team with an elite defense and a moribund offense. If Saleh fails as head coach, it will almost certainly be because the Jets could never consistently field a respectable offense.

I absolutely did not subscribe to the "offensive guys are better head coaches in the modern NFL than defensive guys" theory until this season. I stubbornly refused to believe it. I looked at guys like Pete Carroll and Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, and concluded that leadership is what matters most. But then I thought: well, exactly how many championships have Carroll, Tomlin, and Harbaugh won since 2013? Zero. I simply fear that the "my offensive coordinator keeps getting hired out from under me" phenomenon is too much of an ongoing disruption to offenses to not be a factor which significantly hinders teams' offensive success. And since offensive success seems to be what the NFL wants to emphasize above all else, this is a fatal problem.

Put simply: if the NFL is going to lean ever more heavily into offense -- and I get what you're saying about defenses counter-punching in the years to come, and I agree -- and if the writing seems to be on the wall that "the best offense with the best QB has the best chance at the Super Bowl each year" (which is certainly what the Reid/Mahomes dominance seems to point to)...then I want the Buffalo Bills to follow that recipe. The good news is that they already have one of the two elements needed! Not many teams can say that! They have Josh Allen, who can lay reasonable claim -- when he is playing at his best, that is -- to being the best in the game. It is simply my belief that so long as Sean McDermott is the head coach of the Bills, they're never realistically going to have the second element: the best possible offense. 

I could be wrong. Joe Brady could be the guy, or McDermott could hire some hot young offensive wiz kid as OC this offseason, and the Bills offense could be gangbusters again. But then we're back to the "poaching" problem. How long do the Bills get to have Brady or Wiz Kid X before he gets hired away? Pairing Allen with an elite offensive mind as head coach eliminates the "perpetual turnover on offense" problem and, at least theoretically, gives him a 10 year window of great play-calling instead of a series of one and two year windows interspersed with turnover.

You may be right, I may be behind the curve. In actuality, though, I feel that it's the BILLS who are behind the curve here. I think offense is the present and the future, and Sean McDermott is simply never going to be Mr Offense.

Thanks.  Great discussion.

 

I believe in the pendulum in football.  We're already seeing the running game come back some as teams overload to stop the passers.  And I believe in the pendulum for coaches, too.   I simply would not make a five- or ten-year head coaching decision on a factor that is a swinging pendulum.  Yes, the Bills are behind the pendulum curve, and that's exactly the point.  When you hire a coach, you want to keep him, and living with an offense minded coach in a defensive era is no prettier than the other way around. 

 

The one point in your favor, I believe, is that the QB is just so damn important, you have to have a HC who is in sync with the QB.  That's why I said earlier I'd want to know how strong the McDermott-Allen relationship is.  That's maybe the single most important data point for me.  I don't want Allen picking the head coach, but I want Allen to be tight with whoever the head coach is.   That's probably easier with an offensive head coach.   But frankly, I think offense/defense is less important than the coach's ability to bridge the generational gap.  That is, Reid and Mahomes connecting personally is more important than Reid calling plays for Mahomes.   Just my opinion. 

 

You can deal with the poaching problem a bit with salary, and with a guy who's really committed to the QB and the coach.  Josh McDaniel, for example.   

 

Reading all this makes me think McDermott better have struck some gold with Brady, because the clock is ticking.  If Brady doesn't work and the Bills bring in someone knew, that's probably McD's last chance.  

 

Finally, if McDermott really has lost the locker room, and things fall apart down the stretch, then, of course, it may be time for the process to leave town.