THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - On Scapegoats and Five and Five

[JoPoy88]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Boston Globe writer Ben Volin says it’s “scapegoat season” in Buffalo, with Ken Dorsey being the latest scapegoat (less than a year after Leslie Frazier was the scapegoat).  That "scapegoat" crap is what commercial journalists drag out every time a team fires a coordinator in mid-season.  (It's like dragging out the "rust" discussion every time one baseball team sweeps and then has to wait a week or more to play again.  At least rust is a real thing; this scapegoating is not.) They say it because some portion of the fan base believes the head coach should be fired; identifying Dorsey as a “scapegoat” (without proof, of course) proves, doesn’t it, that McDermott is the real problem.  These headhunters imply that the Head Coach should understand he's the problem and - what - fire himself?  Quit?  The journalist doesn't necessarily believe it, but saying that the OC is simply a scapegoat is playing to the people who want the head coach out, and not journalism.

 

So, I think Volin is taking a simple, hackneyed way out instead of doing his readers a favor by explaining what's really going on.

 

The reality is that a lot of people who understand the Bills had the same view of the team as I did in preseason - that the defense would be solid, and the success of the team would be measured by the success of the offense.  Success of the offense depended on (1) Dorsey running a good offense, and (2) Allen executing it.  We're now seeing those two questions being answered.  In other words, if the Bills were going to have a difficult season in 2023, the most likely reason was exactly what we're seeing.  

 

The team's defense has been decimated with injuries, but even so, they've kept the Bills in games.  They are middle of the league average in yards allowed per game, but they are fifth in the league in points allowed per game.  It's actually quite an accomplishment that McDermott as HC and DC has built a defense that is somehow surviving the injuries and still making opponents work hard to get something. 

 

It's the offense that has disappointed, not the defense.  Allen is not performing well, and it's possible he's lost focus, hit a wall, or something, but that's less believable than he running this offense well.  He still can make all the throws better than anyone ever, but he isn't making them.  Sometimes he seems not to be decisive, and yes maybe he just can't master reading defenses and executing the offense.  But, it doesn't look like that's true, and even if it is, no one is going to give up yet on his talent.   He's a generational talent, and it's just a stupid play to trade him for a boatload of picks and players, or whatever.

 

So, that means, one way or the other, Dorsey is the problem.  Either Dorsey is failing to design a quality NFL passing offense, or he's failing at training Allen to execute.  If he's failing in design, you have to move on to someone else.  If his offense is fine and he can't get Allen to execute, then, again, you have to move on, because you're committed to Allen long term, and you need to find an OC who can harness Allen's talent. 

 

Dorsey's offense last season didn't look good as the season wore on.  He picked up from where Daboll had left off, but he failed to build the offense further (and he has more to work with than Daboll had).  Still, it was clear to me that he is a talented guy, and it was his rookie year.  If you believed in his potential, you needed to give him another year to see.  If you didn't believe in his potential, then you shouldn't have hired him in the first place. 

 

Now, ten games into the season, the Bills are five and five.  The offense, after an early season explosion, with Allen looking all-worldly, is getting stopped consistently by most every defense they see.  Whatever it takes to be a good offensive coordinator, whatever creativity it takes to keep tweaking your offense as the opponents tweak their defenses, whatever that is, Dorsey doesn't seem to have it.   In his second season, his opportunity to prove the brass wise, he is looking somewhat less capable than in his rookie year.  This team is now top-10 in yards and points per game, but they've fallen way off from their league-leading production in the first four or five weeks.   Now, they are struggling, visibly and statistically.  But even if they plateau around the top-10, that is NOT the expectation with this offense.  The whole point is that with a talent like Allen, top-10 simply isn't enough.  If your offense with Allen isn't top-3, then your offense is failing.  (That’s true if injuries weren’t a problem, and Dorsey hasn't had many injuries.  In fact, I think he started the same offensive line for all ten games.) 

 

Are there other problems with the Bills?  For sure, and that was completely apparent against the Broncos.  The special teams had three really bad plays, the final being an inexcusable procedural penalty that cost them the game.  The defense seems to be getting gashed for the big play more frequently, and it is bending a lot and breaking sometimes.   But, as noted, the injuries are serious - their best safety, their best corner, their best linebacker, their best interior defensive lineman ALL are out for the season.  (And their best edge rusher (Von Miller) has not yet recovered to anything like what he was.  He said he was going to play early, and he is playing.  But it's common to take more than a year to recover from an ACL, and he's right on schedule.  We might not see the real Von Miller again until next season.) 

 

Look at the scores in the Bills' losses:  22-16, 25-20, 29-25, 24-18, 24-22.  It's a team that has a defense that keeps the Bills in games, despite their injuries.  It's a team should have a top-5 offense with Allen but instead has an offense putting up numbers that are no better than ordinary.

 

And finally, is it possible that for some reason (personality, ego, whatever) McDermott will never allow an offensive coordinator the freedom necessary to run the offense?  In other words, is McDermott the problem?  Well, yes, sure, that's possible.  But the question is the same as with Dorsey: did you believe in him when you hired him, and do you believe in him now?  When the guy has put together winners like he has, it's hard not to believe in him for a while longer.   He's intensely committed to winning.  So, yes, maybe the problem is McDermott, but let's say we bet:   You can bet on the future career of the second-season offensive coordinator whose offense isn't getting it done; I'll take the future career of the fifth-winningest coach (%) among all active NFL coaches, behind, LaFleur, Belichick, Reid, and Tomlin and ahead of McCarthy, Harbaugh, Carroll, and McVay.  (Oh, and total wins among active coaches?  He's ninth, ahead of McVay, Shanahan, Vrabel, and Lafleur.) 

 

So, no, Mr. Boston Globe, sir, moving Dorsey out of there in mid-season has nothing at all to do with some "scapegoat" nonsense; it is, in fact, the logical decision under the circumstances.   Maybe with a change, you can find a way to salvage the season, but whatever happens, you know now Dorsey won't be the guy in 2024.  If he's not the guy next season, then at a minimum you can try out someone from your staff to see if he might be the guy. 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were every-day people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

I mean, everything you said about Dorsey and his deficiencies is true, but the reasons why some are calling him the scapegoat after his firing are there and you just choose to ignore them or dismiss them away, which is odd given how excruciatingly long these always are. 
 

Both Beane and McDermott have said they’ve tried to alter Allen’s game for the sake of his longevity. That all on Dorsey? Nope. And Allen is different now, one can presume some of that from both the GM and (mostly) the head coach is at least partly to blame.  And if you agree that it is partly to blame, then yes, Dorsey is, at least partly, a scapegoat.
 

But yeah, go ahead - Dorsey was the tumor they cut out and everything’s fine now. So simplistic.

Edited November 16, 2023 by JoPoy88

[EasternOHBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

I mean, everything you said about Dorsey and his deficiencies is true, but the reasons why some are calling him the scapegoat after his firing are there and you just choose to ignore them or dismiss them away, which is odd given how excruciatingly long these always are. 

 

You literally quoted his entire post word for word and complained about the length... that's odd as well.

[Figster]

2 hours ago, notwoz said:

Once again, you inject clear-eyed objectivity into what has been an emotion-filled series of rants. Thanks for your insight.

and much needed ...

[JoPoy88]

19 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

You literally quoted his entire post word for word and complained about the length... that's odd as well.

yeah - it’s called a quote and i’m not going to sit here and shave it down when basically he’s making a single point and it’s wrong. What aren’t you getting here?

 

If this guy didn’t fancy himself this board’s Bill Barnwell (minus actual facts of course) then the quotes wouldn’t be so long ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Edited November 16, 2023 by JoPoy88

[Ray Stonada]

I tend to agree with Matthew Fairburn:

 

”McDermott seems allergic to taking accountability. When asked about having too many men on the field at the end of the Broncos game, he said it was special teams coordinator Matt Smiley who made the decision to send the field goal block unit onto the field. Yet McDermott is the head coach of the team and the coordinator of the defense that needed to be subbed out. The lack of communication and preparation in that moment falls on him and him alone. But he couldn’t even say it.

 

“This isn’t a new issue. After the Bills’ devastating loss in the final 13 seconds of the AFC Divisional Round against the Kansas City Chiefs in 2021, McDermott kept pointing to issues with execution on the kickoff and on defense. That’s code for blaming the players. Go back to 2017 when McDermott benched quarterback Tyrod Taylor after McDermott’s defense allowed 47 points in a loss to the New Orleans Saints. He said that decision was about “becoming a better football team,” but he had to reverse that decision a week later when Nathan Peterman threw five interceptions in a 54-24 loss. This is his pattern. Even after Monday’s loss, he repeatedly praised the defense — ostensibly patting himself on the back — and pointed to the injuries more than once…

 

“When the Bills are tied or leading by one score in the fourth quarter this season, McDermott’s vaunted defense drops to 28th in EPA/play, according to TruMedia. In the biggest moments, McDermott wilts.”

 

https://theathletic.com/5064917/2023/11/15/buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-ken-dorsey/
 

I do think Dorsey is more responsible than McDermott for the offense being too difficult for players to run well, and for the maddening play calls that neglected rushing even when it worked great, and overused the shotgun with no motion, no trickery, and no play action.

 

But that doesn’t mean McDermott is a good situational coach. Or that he doesn’t scapegoat others to save his job. He has needed to fire guys every season, so why do we keep making terrible strategic errors every season? Zero blitzing twice in a row, throwing away tons of timeouts, benching and disciplining players inconsistently/unfairly, being unprepared in game-ending situations every time.
 

He is winless in overtime for his career. That says a lot about his strategic incompetence versus other coaches.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

If you believed in his potential, you needed to give him another year to see.  If you didn't believe in his potential, then you shouldn't have hired him in the first place. 

 

Dorsey was a bad hire from the jump IMO. You have an offense led by Allen and Diggs in their prime, and you hand the keys to a first time play caller. We were his first audition at the job when we needed an experienced play caller to take over a championship ready offense. This was entirely predictable. Our offense was past "potential." These were our best years and we threw them away for on the job training.

 

Look at what Daboll had to do to work his way up the chain. He spent a while learning under two of the greatest coaches of all time in Bill Belichick and Nick Saban. He was given the keys to untalented offenses with unserious QBs for years, learning what it takes to do that job at the NFL level without any lofty expectations weighing him down. Then, finally, after years of thankless work he was given the keys to a franchise QB. And after all that his replacement is just a QB coach that had learned under the likes of Ron Rivera. It was an awful hire.

 

And McDermott ultimately has to take responsibility for that failed hire. Allen may have endorsed Dorsey but Allen is a kid and was riding the highs of several years of elite offensive football. McDermott is the coach and needed to step in and make the mature practical decision, not the "I'm loyal to my guys and that's that" decision.

 

Long term the only way we are getting elite offensive coaching for the remainder of Allen's career is to replace McDermott. That is an undeniable fact.

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by HappyDays

[Beast]

Who hired these coaches McDermott has had to fire (or they took a break for a year LOL) the past few years?

 

Sean assembled this staff. I consider it a failure on his part. Especially considering where the Bills were as a team when he decided to give Dorsey the job of being the OC.

 

Eventually the buck will stop at the CEO of the coaching staff.

 

 

[Turk71]

Maybe if McD wasn't constantly blaming others and actually accepted responsibility the word scapegoat wouldn't be so easily applied when he fires someone.

His situational awareness is so completely lacking at times it is just embarrassing, but he never accepts any responsibility. These are just 2 glaring examples out of many.

1. Regardless of the kickoff not being a short or squib kick, McD was guarding the sidelines when KC had 2 timeouts and only 13 seconds left for some clueless reason. He blamed the loss on ST coach for kicking into the endzone, never explaining why he was guarding the sidelines leaving the middle wide open.

2.Two games ago vs Cinci he was trying to punt when the clock was running out the 1st half and he didn't even have to run a play. He thought the ***** clock was stopped with 20 secs left or he never would have been lined up to punt in the first place. They snapped the ball to punt a second after the clock expired and luckily the refs blew it dead ending the half. Announcers and fans everywhere wondering what the ***** was that?

  He makes millions of dollars and he looks completely dumbfounded, confused, and lost out there sometimes. It is embarrassing. I wanted Dorsey gone and I don't expect them to fire McD mid-season but I think it is perfectly reasonable for some to see this as scapegoating. A leader who accepts no responsibility needs scapegoats.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Turk71

[Scott7975]

Funny thing is that we don't have any true coordinators left.  If McD got canned in season the interim coach would be the waterboy haha.  I mean we got the ST's coach still I guess.

 

Is anybody even going to want to work for McD next season or are we going to be stuck with the "promote from within" or retreads begging for any scrap of a job?

Edited November 16, 2023 by Scott7975

[Comebackkid]

Let's just fire everyone because it worked so well for 20 years in the past

[Straight Hucklebuck]

It doesn’t really matter in my opinion.

 

There was no way Dorsey was going to survive past the end of the season.

 

Having to hang on for dear life against the Giants, then again against Bucs, and the tone changed after Cincinnati loss where it was 18 points.
 

The question now is whether McDermott survives this. 
 

I don’t think he’s earned that. 

[Ray Stonada]

 

21 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

There was no way Dorsey was going to survive past the end of the season.

 

Having to hang on for dear life against the Giants, then again against Bucs, and the tone changed after Cincinnati loss where it was 18 points.

 

I agree. Dorsey was not exactly a scapegoat; he deserved to be fired. 

 

But McDermott is the scapegoat for this: he lets our coordinators screw up because he doesn't know how to fix it. He let Dorsey go pass happy all game even when we're running for 9 yards per carry. He let Smiley keep kicking to Mims even though he was gashing us on every return. A good head coach walks over and says "Hey Matthew, don't kick it to this guy anymore" or "Ken, run the ball or your @@@ is grass" or even, "Leslie, remember, we don't need to defend the sidelines here."

 

It's not easy to make the right calls in the heat of an NFL game. It's really hard and only a few people have the cold-bloodedness to see what's happening and think of the answer to it in seconds. I know I couldn't do it. But that's what great coaches need, and what puts their players in situations to succeed. McDermott is not good at it and that's why everything feels much harder than it should be. By now our players feel if it's close, we will probably lose because our coaches. They play almost depressed.

 

And, because McDermott doesn't admit this, he doesn't improve. He's no better in the fourth quarter of tight games now than in 2017.

 

Nick Siriani rehearses different end-of-game scenarios in practice constantly. Sean Payton has wrinkles for these moments. His team played the kneel downs and rushing on the field goal team perfectly to use up all remaining clock, and they were lined up with 10 seconds to spare. 

 

Has McDermott ever surprised people with the brilliance of his in-game coaching, or his game planning for a great opponent? Have we ever won a big game that we shouldn't have, because of him? 

 

Nope.  

Edited November 16, 2023 by Ray Stonada

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, blitzboy54 said:

McD preaches “accountability”, it’s his brand. Funny thing there is whenever it seems like he needs to be accountable though he ducks responsibility (at least publicly). After 13 seconds it wasn’t time to talk about it. He wanted to keep it in house. He pulled the same line yesterday, it’s never time to talk about anything that reflects badly on him or his coaching. 
 

“The process” is another thing. It doesn’t seem to apply to him. He is as bad a game day manager in year 6 as he was in year 1.  Timeouts, clock management, challenges etc. so learning from our mistakes is not for him. 
 

Im not a football coach but I was a Marine. I know what leadership looks like. I would imagine watching him throw the offense under the bus to the press the last 2 days while praising his defense and even throwing in the injury’s to prop himself up goes over about as well as a screen door on a submarine. 
 

I’ve lost faith and seen enough of his shtick personally. Ultimately it’s up to Terry but I don’t think we will get to the mountain top with him at the helm.  
 

 

I can respect that opinion, and I can't argue with it.  

 

I have confidence the man will continue to get better.   But I'll admit that my confidence has been shaken. 

1 minute ago, Ray Stonada said:

 

 

I agree. Dorsey was not exactly a scapegoat; he deserved to be fired. 

 

But McDermott is the scapegoat for this: he lets our coordinators screw up because he doesn't know how to fix it. He let Frazier run a defense that got picked apart every time by Mahomes and Burrow. He let Dorsey go pass happy all game even when we're running for 9 yards per carry. He let Smiley keep kicking to Mims even though he was gashing us on every return. A good head coach walks over and says "Hey Matthew, don't kick it to this guy anymore" or "Leslie, remember, we don't need to defend the sidelines here."

 

It's not easy to make the right calls in the heat of an NFL game. It's really hard and only a few people have the cold-bloodedness to see what's happening and think of the answer to it in seconds. I know I couldn't do it. But that's what great coaches need, and what puts their players in situations to succeed. McDermott is not good at it and that's why everything feels much harder than it should be. By now our players feel if it's close, we will probably lose because our coaches. They play almost depressed.

 

And, because McDermott doesn't admit this, he doesn't improve. He's no better in the fourth quarter of tight games now than in 2017.

 

Nick Siriani rehearses different end-of-game scenarios in practice constantly. Sean Payton has wrinkles for these moments. His team played the kneel downs and rushing on the field goal team perfectly to use up all remaining clock, and they were lined up with 10 seconds to spare. 

 

Has McDermott ever surprised people with the brilliance of his in-game coaching, or his game planning for a great opponent? Have we ever won a big game that we shouldn't have, because of him? 

 

Nope.  

Good criticisms of McDermott.  Thanks.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Hilarious! The Bills offense gives them a late lead with a touchdown scoring drive. The defense then proceeds to allow the Broncos to march down the field setting themselves up for the head coach and our special teams to make mind boggling mistakes thus losing a game, that while ugly, was in fact, already won!

 

And what do we do? We fire the OFFENSIVE coordinator. The message of course being that by golly that offense is supposed to get us far enough ahead that even this brain dead head coach can’t screw it up. Sure….that sounds like a really well run organization. 
 

Give me a break! 

The point is the defense is holding their own keeping opposing points low, as decimated as they are, and this offense should be blowing opponents doors off. 

if you take out their 3 good offensive games, here is the run.., 

 

16, 20, 14, 25, 24, 18, 22 

 

under 20 ppg. 
 

that’s why they lose. Can’t score points on good defenses. 

[Shaw66]

50 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

Is anybody even going to want to work for McD next season or are we going to be stuck with the "promote from within" or retreads begging for any scrap of a job?

If I'm an up and coming coach and I get a chance to be Josh Allen's offensive coordinator, I'm taking it in a heartbeat.  Jon Gruden rode Brett Favre to a great career - not with Favre, but that's how he built his reputation.  Hiring one isn't going to be the problem.  Finding the right one is the problem. 

1 hour ago, Beast said:

Who hired these coaches McDermott has had to fire (or they took a break for a year LOL) the past few years?

 

Sean assembled this staff. I consider it a failure on his part. Especially considering where the Bills were as a team when he decided to give Dorsey the job of being the OC.

 

Eventually the buck will stop at the CEO of the coaching staff.

 

 

Eventually, yes.  I don't think he's there yet.  He hired Daboll, and that worked out fine.  So, he's one for two.  

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Dorsey was a bad hire from the jump IMO. You have an offense led by Allen and Diggs in their prime, and you hand the keys to a first time play caller. We were his first audition at the job when we needed an experienced play caller to take over a championship ready offense. This was entirely predictable. Our offense was past "potential." These were our best years and we threw them away for on the job training.

 

Look at what Daboll had to do to work his way up the chain. He spent a while learning under two of the greatest coaches of all time in Bill Belichick and Nick Saban. He was given the keys to untalented offenses with unserious QBs for years, learning what it takes to do that job at the NFL level without any lofty expectations weighing him down. Then, finally, after years of thankless work he was given the keys to a franchise QB. And after all that his replacement is just a QB coach that had learned under the likes of Ron Rivera. It was an awful hire.

 

And McDermott ultimately has to take responsibility for that failed hire. Allen may have endorsed Dorsey but Allen is a kid and was riding the highs of several years of elite offensive football. McDermott is the coach and needed to step in and make the mature practical decision, not the "I'm loyal to my guys and that's that" decision.

 

Long term the only way we are getting elite offensive coaching for the remainder of Allen's career is to replace McDermott. That is an undeniable fact.

 

I was with you to the end.   As I just said, he hired Daboll, so why is it that the Bills won't get another good coordinator?   Good for you, truly, that you knew Dorsey wasn't the right guy, but the fact that you were right about one OC and McDermott was wrong doesn't mean that McDermott can't hire and thrive with a good OC.  

[Figster]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I was with you to the end.   As I just said, he hired Daboll, so why is it that the Bills won't get another good coordinator?   Good for you, truly, that you knew Dorsey wasn't the right guy, but the fact that you were right about one OC and McDermott was wrong doesn't mean that McDermott can't hire and thrive with a good OC.  

I agree, its doubtful that Mcbeane makes the same mistake twice. If Joe Brady doesn't start showing them something and quick, the search is on IMO. It may already be on for all we know.

 

Who as an Offensive minded coach wouldn't want to work with Josh Allen. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Figster

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

As I just said, he hired Daboll, so why is it that the Bills won't get another good coordinator?

 

They might get a good OC, even a great one. Who knows, maybe Joe Brady is the next up and coming offensive mastermind and is about to prove it. But in a best case scenario that great OC will be hired away as a head coach in 1-2 years. And then we will have to hire another one. And so on until the day Allen retires. That's how it works in the modern NFL. If you have great offensive coaching it's on borrowed time unless that coach is your head coach. Look at the Falcons after Kyle Shanahan got hired away. That's the inevitable fate of a defensive head coach.

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by HappyDays

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

They might get a good OC, even a great one. Who knows, maybe Joe Brady is the next up and coming offensive mastermind and is about to prove it. But in a best case scenario that great OC will be hired away as a head coach in 1-2 years. And then we will have to hire another one. And so on until the day Allen retires. That's how it works in the modern NFL. If you have great offensive coaching it's on borrowed time unless that coach is your head coach. Look at the Falcons after Kyle Shanahan got hired away. That's the inevitable fate of a defensive head coach.

 

Yes, that's true.  

 

The alternative is to hire an OC-HC, if you can find the right one, but then you have the same problem on the defensive side.   The fact that it will be hard to hire and keep a successful OC is more or less a given, unless you fire McDermott to keep the OC.  

 

I'm really not here to defend McDermott.  I just think at this point in this season, the only move that made sense was the one they made.  Dorsey was failing and gone at the end of the season.  May as well try out Brady. 

22 minutes ago, Figster said:

I agree, its doubtful that Mcbeane makes the same mistake twice. If Joe Brady doesn't start showing them something and quick, the search is on IMO. It may already be on for all we know.

 

Who as an Offensive minded coach wouldn't want to work with Josh Allen. 

Well, I'm not sure McBeane won't make the same mistake twice.  Ralph Wilson made the same mistakes for decades.   It's not a given that McBeane will succeed, and they've given us reason to doubt them.  

[Figster]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, that's true.  

 

The alternative is to hire an OC-HC, if you can find the right one, but then you have the same problem on the defensive side.   The fact that it will be hard to hire and keep a successful OC is more or less a given, unless you fire McDermott to keep the OC.  

 

I'm really not here to defend McDermott.  I just think at this point in this season, the only move that made sense was the one they made.  Dorsey was failing and gone at the end of the season.  May as well try out Brady. 

 

Well, I'm not sure McBeane won't make the same mistake twice.  Ralph Wilson made the same mistakes for decades.   It's not a given that McBeane will succeed, and they've given us reason to doubt them.  

Terry Pegula is a better business man though, and he doesn't have Russ Brandon whispering sweet nothings in his ear ;  )

Edited November 16, 2023 by Figster