The elephant in the room that there is no thread about - Josh Allen has a severe turnover problem

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

I don't think anyone with half a brain disputes that.

 

What they dispute (in the most simple sense) is people calling it Josh's turnovers, when they are actually Josh, Cook, Gabe, etc's or "The Bills" turnovers. Yes, the Bills need better ball security.

Agreed.  But like it or not the QB gets the stat for interceptions.  
 

Josh may be right there with Elway as the most physically talented QB ever.  But he can play smarter and be even better, as every guy on offense can as well.  Let’s hope Brady can light a fire.

[MikePJ76]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Exactly. TO’s matter. TOs in your own territory almost always lead to points.

 

It’s like the statistic most correlated to wins and losses. not PI’s, not missed tackles, not penalties.

 

This is wrong from 70 years of football data. I’m sorry.

Turnovers are the end result of the play and the statistic that goes into the game book, but they are not always made by the guy being assigned the TO.  

 

That is why equating a turnover in the first quarter to a PI in a critical moment of the final drive of the game is not equal to me.  yes historically every coach ever is going to preach dont turn the ball over...play good special teams yada yada yada.   Its just not the stand alone thing anymore in the nfl like it once was in what was a running league.

 

That is why in today's nfl you want to be the team with the ball last even if you are losing and not the team protecting the lead late.  The increased number of defensive penalties and the leagues insistence on offenses having the upper hand have made that traditional turn the ball over and lose scenario less relevant.  

 

if allen were throwing back breaking interceptions on final drives or in overtime I would be right there with you concerned that there is a problem and it might not be able to get corrected.  However that is not the scenario I see happening and no matter what anyone says its a 60 minute game, if you throw  a tipped ball interception in the first quarter and the other team does not get points out of it, then later you lead a game winning drive only to have the defense blow the game with missed tackles, mental mistakes and penalties......there is no way you can tell me the defensive mistakes in the final moments of the game are not the reason you lost.  Its a team game and it takes 60 minutes to win.

 

Neil O'Donnell level turnovers I am right there with you but Allen is a guy that with the ball late is going to go score and has proven it time and time again.  

 

in todays nfl we see it time and time again...teams make mistakes and get behind or play sloppy and then all of a sudden late they get it together and make plays and win nullifying the earlier mistakes.  Its basically a constant every week.

 

for instance what mattered more in the Jags Chargers Playoff game last year, Trevor Lawrence's 4 Interceptions or his 4 touchdowns...

 

.Herbert  threw 0 interceptions but also only 1 TD.   Lawrence threw 3 first half interceptions and 3 second half touchdowns along with leading a game winning drive for a field goal.  The jags defense gave up zero points in the fourth quarter and the offensive scored 11.  

 

The turnovers are forgotten because Lawrence threw a bunch of TD's and the defense made stops in the fourth quarter which is what todays nfl is all about.  Allt the games will be close and you need to make those plays late now more than ever.  The defense and special teams here have failed in critical moments this year irregardless of how anyone feels about the turnovers or the supposed turnover machine.....if the defense gets stops like they were setup to do then this team is 7-3 (8-2 via a miracle in Cincy) and the narrative is that Allen will beat you late even if he struggles early because that is who he is.  The leagues leader in TOUCHDOWNS.

 

or they could just trade him as I have read here this week many times to appease that portion of the fanbase and then draft another guy who will no doubtedly lead the league in Touchdowns and make play after play in critical moments.

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

Most people will just say you have to accept it.  I don't agree, it is a correctable problem.  Many of the INT's and fumbles this year are not when Josh is trying to do to much.  Many of them are just reading the defense wrong or sloppy play.  Josh is not allowed to be criticized to many here.

[nedboy7]

I like the plays where the ball drops out of his hands before the hand-off.  I blame that on Dorsey. 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, MikePJ76 said:

Turnovers are the end result of the play and the statistic that goes into the game book, but they are not always made by the guy being assigned the TO.  

 

That is why equating a turnover in the first quarter to a PI in a critical moment of the final drive of the game is not equal to me.  yes historically every coach ever is going to preach dont turn the ball over...play good special teams yada yada yada.   Its just not the stand alone thing anymore in the nfl like it once was in what was a running league.

 

That is why in today's nfl you want to be the team with the ball last even if you are losing and not the team protecting the lead late.  The increased number of defensive penalties and the leagues insistence on offenses having the upper hand have made that traditional turn the ball over and lose scenario less relevant.  

 

if allen were throwing back breaking interceptions on final drives or in overtime I would be right there with you concerned that there is a problem and it might not be able to get corrected.  However that is not the scenario I see happening and no matter what anyone says its a 60 minute game, if you throw  a tipped ball interception in the first quarter and the other team does not get points out of it, then later you lead a game winning drive only to have the defense blow the game with missed tackles, mental mistakes and penalties......there is no way you can tell me the defensive mistakes in the final moments of the game are not the reason you lost.  Its a team game and it takes 60 minutes to win.

 

Neil O'Donnell level turnovers I am right there with you but Allen is a guy that with the ball late is going to go score and has proven it time and time again.  

 

in todays nfl we see it time and time again...teams make mistakes and get behind or play sloppy and then all of a sudden late they get it together and make plays and win nullifying the earlier mistakes.  Its basically a constant every week.

 

for instance what mattered more in the Jags Chargers Playoff game last year, Trevor Lawrence's 4 Interceptions or his 4 touchdowns...

 

.Herbert  threw 0 interceptions but also only 1 TD.   Lawrence threw 3 first half interceptions and 3 second half touchdowns along with leading a game winning drive for a field goal.  The jags defense gave up zero points in the fourth quarter and the offensive scored 11.  

 

The turnovers are forgotten because Lawrence threw a bunch of TD's and the defense made stops in the fourth quarter which is what todays nfl is all about.  Allt the games will be close and you need to make those plays late now more than ever.  The defense and special teams here have failed in critical moments this year irregardless of how anyone feels about the turnovers or the supposed turnover machine.....if the defense gets stops like they were setup to do then this team is 7-3 (8-2 via a miracle in Cincy) and the narrative is that Allen will beat you late even if he struggles early because that is who he is.  The leagues leader in TOUCHDOWNS.

 

or they could just trade him as I have read here this week many times to appease that portion of the fanbase and then draft another guy who will no doubtedly lead the league in Touchdowns and make play after play in critical moments.

 

 

Trevor Lawrences 4 TO's put them in a 4 score hole.  He made up for it by bringing them back with his defense also playing lights out, but 99/100 times, the Jags lose that game and everyone rightfully blames Lawrence for melting down.

 

No one would have pointed the finger at the Jags defense letting them down if they lost that game lol.

 

I think Josh Allen is great. I think Josh Allen can be even greater if he turns it over less. Other QBs, historically, have put up insane offensive production without turning it over as much. They are also, coincidentally, QBs who have accomplished much more than Josh Allen.

 

Patrick Mahomes had 52 TD's with one of the worst defenses in football. He had 12 interceptions that year. Nearly a 5:1 ratio.

 

THAT'S the person ya'll are trying to say Josh is comparable to.

 

I love Josh. He's great. There's unfortunately levels to great. Big Ben was great. Favre was great. Brady was great. Manning was great. They are not all the same kind of great.

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Most people will just say you have to accept it.  I don't agree, it is a correctable problem.  Many of the INT's and fumbles this year are not when Josh is trying to do to much.  Many of them are just reading the defense wrong or sloppy play.  Josh is not allowed to be criticized to many here.

 

Definitely correctable (to an extent), and it's on the OC to correct it not make it worse.

 

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I love Josh. He's great. There's unfortunately levels to great. Big Ben was great. Favre was great. Brady was great. Manning was great. They are not all the same kind of great.

 

They're all Super Bowl Winning Great, and that's the only great that matters. And what we want for Josh.

[Aussie Joe]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Agreed.  But like it or not the QB gets the stat for interceptions.  
 

Josh may be right there with Elway as the most physically talented QB ever.  But he can play smarter and be even better, as every guy on offense can as well.  Let’s hope Brady can light a fire.

I’m skeptical considering Brady has been the QB coach this season …. But you gotta try something to shake things up ..

[MikePJ76]

Just now, FireChans said:

Trevor Lawrences 4 TO's put them in a 4 score hole.  He made up for it by bringing them back with his defense also playing lights out, but 99/100 times, the Jags lose that game and everyone rightfully blames Lawrence for melting down.

 

No one would have pointed the finger at the Jags defense letting them down if they lost that game lol.

 

I think Josh Allen is great. I think Josh Allen can be even greater if he turns it over less. Other QBs, historically, have put up insane offensive production without turning it over as much. They are also, coincidentally, QBs who have accomplished much more than Josh Allen.

 

Patrick Mahomes had 52 TD's with one of the worst defenses in football. He had 12 interceptions that year. Nearly a 5:1 ratio.

 

THAT'S the person ya'll are trying to say Josh is comparable to.

 

I love Josh. He's great. There's unfortunately levels to great. Big Ben was great. Favre was great. Brady was great. Manning was great. They are not all the same kind of great.

So your analogy is that Allen is not as good as Favre because Allen turns the ball over?

 

this whole who are comparing allen to has come out of left field....I don't recall comparing him to anyone, I am debating the merits of labeling the teams most important player a Turnover machine responsible for all the bad things happening in Buffalo.  Also I have been pointing out that the league which these guys currently play allows for teams to make repeated mistakes on offense because the game is setup for them to succeed.....so being really good late corelates to me more in winning than throwing early interceptions does to losing.  

 

again though if you are now saying Allen is never going to be an all timer because he turns the ball over and using Brett FRIGGING Favre as the bar to pass not to mention Peyton Manning....then....Good day sir.

[Don Otreply]

   The thing is, when Josh pays attention to this issue it gets markedly better, so where when and how is this regularly reoccurring???  
   Imo, it’s stemming from few areas, the OCs lack of skill, creating doubt in the QBs mind on play calls and or Beane/McDermotts insistence on having a patchwork O-line since the beginning of their tenures here, Josh right or wrong is feeling pressure wether it’s there or not, it is a mess and those in a position to help correct the cause aren’t successful in addressing this chronic problem.  
 

GO BILLS!!!

[LABILLBACKER]

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Agreed.  But like it or not the QB gets the stat for interceptions.  
 

Josh may be right there with Elway as the most physically talented QB ever.  But he can play smarter and be even better, as every guy on offense can as well.  Let’s hope Brady can light a fire.

How can we possibly go wrong with a Brady & Shula.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

I’m skeptical considering Brady has been the QB coach this season …. But you gotta try something to shake things up ..

Had to make a change; it seemed the team had lost confidence in Dorsey.  Brady gets a 7 game audition.

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Had to make a change; it seemed the team had lost confidence in Dorsey.  Brady gets a 7 game audition.

Yep… like I said …

 

But it’s more hoping for the best rather then having any real expectations…

 

The guy was his position coach and couldn’t get him out of his funk .. and now he is going to have less time each week and during the game  to try to do so …

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

So your analogy is that Allen is not as good as Favre because Allen turns the ball over?

 

this whole who are comparing allen to has come out of left field....I don't recall comparing him to anyone, I am debating the merits of labeling the teams most important player a Turnover machine responsible for all the bad things happening in Buffalo.  Also I have been pointing out that the league which these guys currently play allows for teams to make repeated mistakes on offense because the game is setup for them to succeed.....so being really good late corelates to me more in winning than throwing early interceptions does to losing.  

 

again though if you are now saying Allen is never going to be an all timer because he turns the ball over and using Brett FRIGGING Favre as the bar to pass not to mention Peyton Manning....then....Good day sir.

Purposeful exaggeration isn’t helping your argument.  I don’t see anyone saying Josh is the cause of all the issues on offense.  Dorsey certainly got his share, and I don’t know if I have a calculator with enough space to add up how many times the O line and specifically Brown has been criticized, not to mention Davis.  All I am pointing out, as others are, is Josh needs to cut down on turnovers.  Turnovers aren’t good.  Never have been.

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

Yep… like I said …

 

But it’s more hoping for the best rather then having any real expectations…

 

The guy was his position coach and couldn’t get him out of his funk .. and now he is going to have less time each week and during the game  to try to do so …

I honestly think Josh needs a guy who is not afraid to get in his face and challenge him.  I’ve said several times this week Brady always said he wanted hard coaching.  I think Josh would benefit.  We’ll see if Brady does that now that he’s the guy in control.

6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

How can we possibly go wrong with a Brady & Shula.

No team would bring a guy from outside in with 7 weeks left and still with a playoff shot.  Wouldn’t have time to install his offense.

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

So your analogy is that Allen is not as good as Favre because Allen turns the ball over?

 

this whole who are comparing allen to has come out of left field....I don't recall comparing him to anyone, I am debating the merits of labeling the teams most important player a Turnover machine responsible for all the bad things happening in Buffalo.  Also I have been pointing out that the league which these guys currently play allows for teams to make repeated mistakes on offense because the game is setup for them to succeed.....so being really good late corelates to me more in winning than throwing early interceptions does to losing.  

 

again though if you are now saying Allen is never going to be an all timer because he turns the ball over and using Brett FRIGGING Favre as the bar to pass not to mention Peyton Manning....then....Good day sir.

I said Allen is great like twice dude. You completely missed the point.

 

Greatness is being listed in those companies. I think Allen is great enough to already be compared to Favre and Ben and the rest.  That's a compliment, not a slight.

 

But Favre didn't win as much as Brady or Ben, in large part, due to the number of head-scratching throws and plays and TOs.  That's just a fact.

 

Does that mean Favre wasn't great?  Of course not.

 

Does that mean he wasn't as great as Brady?  YUP. 

 

Could he have maybe been as great as Brady or Ben if he didn't turn it over so much? YUP.

 

Some great QB's are still better than other great QB's.  And TO's play a part in that.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

 

I think Josh Allen is great. I think Josh Allen can be even greater if he turns it over less. Other QBs, historically, have put up insane offensive production without turning it over as much. They are also, coincidentally, QBs who have accomplished much more than Josh Allen.

 

 

 

Even greater for a player who has been elite for four seasons is a high bar for a player whose primary flaw in each of his six seasons in the NFL is turnovers. 
 

If Allen cut the turnovers down by say 25%, in each of the last four seasons would we then not be talking about a player without a doubt greater than Mahomes? So the bar is basically be better than or as good as Mahomes. Heck of a standard. 
 

You are correct that many of us like to compare him to Mahomes. I think it is fair to compare the two but not necessarily fair to then think well he’s not Mahomes so there is a problem.
 

Allen can go on streaks where he is the greatest they just don’t last an entire season and the floor of his bad games are quite low in comparison. 
 

I’m also skeptical Allen will cut the turnovers down with any consistency. I mean we are six seasons in here. He didn’t just wake up this week a turnover machine. And the bills and Allen both individually and as a team have had high-level success even with the turnovers. Success in my opinion that is good enough to win a Super Bowl in the right year.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Even greater for a player who has been elite for four seasons is a high bar for a player whose primary flaw in each of his six seasons in the NFL is turnovers. 
 

If Allen cut the turnovers down by say 25%, in each of the last four seasons would we then not be talking about a player without a doubt greater than Mahomes? So the bar is basically be better than or as good as Mahomes. Heck of a standard. 
 

You are correct that many of us like to compare him to Mahomes. I think it is fair to compare the two but not necessarily fair to then think well he’s not Mahomes so there is a problem.
 

Allen can go on streaks where he is the greatest they just don’t last an entire season and the floor of his bad games are quite low in comparison. 
 

I’m also skeptical Allen will cut the turnovers down with any consistency. I mean we are six seasons in here. He didn’t just wake up this week a turnover machine. And the bills and Allen both individually and as a team have had high-level success even with the turnovers. Success in my opinion that is good enough to win a Super Bowl in the right year.

I mean, if we had won 2 Superbowls with Josh Allen, then I would agree the TOs don't matter. But we haven't.  And his contemporary, who again, turns it over less, has.

 

I believe Josh Allen is a top 2-3 QB in football as it stands. I believe he could be the best clear and away if he didn't turn it over as much. That's not holding him to an unfair "standard," that's just an accurate assessment of his strengths and flaws as a player.

 

Just because you believe a great player has flaws, doesn't mean I'm holding him to an unfair standard.  He's not perfect. No one is is.

 

Brady was the best ever and he had flaws. His limited mobility meant that getting pressure up the middle was near a death sentence on most plays. Guys like Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, and Burrow don't have that flaw, they can move around and outrun even instant pressure and still make a play.

 

Does that mean I'm holding Brady to an unfair standard? I don't think so.

[billykay]

2 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I think the turnover narrative is way over-blown. Josh has about 6 BAD turnovers this year (fumbles vs Jets and Denver, INT vs Pats, Jets, Broncos, Bengals). 

 

The rest are a combination of game scenario and bad luck.

 

"Arm punts" on 3rd and long from our side of the field and taking a deep shot. Losing a fumble on a hook and ladder vs Patriots on a last second desperation play. Davis letting a perfect throw go right through his hands. Tipped throws at the LOS. DB's making great catches and our WR's not breaking up 50/50 throws (some overlap here with arm punts). 

 

 

WR's should just tackle the DB before he is able to make an int. The penalty is you get to do it again just 10 yds longer.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[peterpan]

4 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

There have been multiple threads on this but for some odd reason they keep getting deleted as sacrilegious. 
 

also 

Josh told this joke to the receivers, but it went over their heads.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I mean, if we had won 2 Superbowls with Josh Allen, then I would agree the TOs don't matter. But we haven't.  And his contemporary, who again, turns it over less, has.

 

I believe Josh Allen is a top 2-3 QB in football as it stands. I believe he could be the best clear and away if he didn't turn it over as much. That's not holding him to an unfair "standard," that's just an accurate assessment of his strengths and flaws as a player.

 

Just because you believe a great player has flaws, doesn't mean I'm holding him to an unfair standard.  He's not perfect. No one is is.

 

Brady was the best ever and he had flaws. His limited mobility meant that getting pressure up the middle was near a death sentence on most plays. Guys like Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, and Burrow don't have that flaw, they can move around and outrun even instant pressure and still make a play.

 

Does that mean I'm holding Brady to an unfair standard? I don't think so.

 

I agree criticism is fine. Seems maybe some of us are going overboard with the criticism though. Or perhaps more accurately, not actually realizing what it is they are expecting Allen to achieve.
 

As you say, no player is perfect but Allen would be the closest thing to perfect the league has ever seen if he cut back on turnovers.

 

So, if no player is perfect, it’s my opinion that will simply have to, as bills fans, learn to live with Allen’s biggest flaw.

 

Brett Favre very much had a similar flaw but the Packers were still able to win a title and make two Super Bowl appearances. That should probably be the bills and Allen’s realistic goal as well.