is there a HC out there worth going after?

[JoeF]

1 minute ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Can he count to 11?

We're on to Cincinnati....

[Logic]

1 minute ago, JoeF said:

By firing Sean McDermott, the Bills would be moving on from a conservative, buttoned up, defensive minded head coach who preaches mental toughness, discipline, and playing complimentary football, and who is possibly a bit too serious and miserly to connect with guys like Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs...

...and replacing him with...

Well...

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

I would like experience as well but want winning experience and that's something likely not available

 

Making the playoffs with trubisky and foles is interesting but Nagy often is seen as the guy that ruined trubisky with how he handled him

 

To me he comes across as another Adam gase - guy who has had success with the best QB in the league then struggles elsewhere

 

What other coaches at the head coach level have failed elsewhere then succeed on the second try?  I can only think of belicheck

Pete Carroll. Depending on your definition of fail/success could include Andy Reid in there. Tom Coughlin. Marv Levy, Tony Dungy. Again, the list is subjective based on where you may draw the line.

 

As you say, he could be another Adam Gase. Valid. You also say he had success with the best QB in the league...and when Josh Allen is humming he's in that conversation.

[JoeF]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I know youre mostly joking, and his methods simply do not work with modern players anymore, but he would definitely have the guys ready for situational football like lining up for a field goal.

Can you imagine what would happen to the ST Coach and the player that made the mistake.....holy *****....

Edited November 15, 2023 by JoeF

[BuffaloButt]

Lincoln Riley

[Ballhawk]

37 minutes ago, Chaos said:

In games where the Bills hav a passer rating over 100, the bills are 16-2 the last three years.  In all other games, the Bills are .500. Side note, other teams experience similar levels of success when their teams go over 100. Recent example agains the Bills was the Patriots 129 rating

 

the 18 games over a 100 passer rating places the Bills eighth in the league over that time frame. 

So the risk is two-fold 1) will the Bills have fewer elite QB performances with McDermott gone.  It seems McDermott has little or nothing to with this factor.  Given Allen’s physical talent level, being ranked higher than eight with a new head coach seems as likely as ranking lower. Secondly only one team over that time period has more than 50 percent of games over 100 passer rating, surprisingly to me, the niners.  As a data point KC had 49 percent vs the bills 44 percent over 100. 
 

So half the games need to be won without an elite QB performance.  McDermott is actually solid, being at a bit over .500 for these games. Andy Reid gaps out from everyone by winning 64 Percent of the games without an elite passer performance in the game.  So the second risk is whether or not there are HCs available who can win at least half the games, when the passer rating is below elite level.  This is a real risk.

 

My personal opinion is that there is some upside of increasing the number of passer rating above 100 games. And there should be coaches available who can also win 50 percent of the other games.   Winning is the Super Bowl likely requires improving both winning percentages.  After six seasons, I don’t know or any reason to think McDermott will improve in win percentage for the 50 percent plus non elite passer games, nor increase the number of elite Passer rating performances. 
 

In summary, there is risk to making a change.  And there might be a reward for the change. Keeping McDermott is less risky, but at this point I don’t foresee any rewards. 

Stats like passer rating and Time of possession always make me wonder if these stats are correlative vs causative (i.e. a reflection of success rather than a cause of it). For me there are two main other considerations in firing McDermott:

 

1) Can Beane fire McD given how they were hired as a package (surely he can technically do so, but practically I'm not sure this is in play). By extension are we saying get rid of Beane as well then? I've been pretty happy with the level of talent and the moves he's made and I'm not sure I want a new GM.

 

2) How do NFL teams quantify the value of continuity in assessing personnel decisions. Many this week might say, if the continuity is flawed then what are you preserving, does that by extension mean it is absolutely without value, I doubt that. Emotional fans might think so (of which I am often one), but I doubt Terry and Beane see it this way.

 

Just ask Allen's draft mates (Darnold, Mayfield) what they think about continuity? That being said it's clearly not the whole equation as evidenced by the Dorsey/Daboll transition.

 

All this to say, I'm assuming McDermott/Beane go together, given the massive upheaval this will cause I would rather assume the risk of trotting this, at times, mis-managed team out for another year (sans-injuries, hopefully) than rolling the dice with an entirely new GM and HC.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Ballhawk

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Ben Johnson

[Rc2catch]

 

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Vrabel.  His teams are tough nosed and built to play in Buffalo.  He’s won with far worse QB’s than Josh and I think he’s a great fit for the fanbase and for Josh.  

I'm on the Ben Johnson train but Vrabel is an intriguing choice.

His teams are always a tough out, even when they have less talent than the opponent. 

[DrDawkinstein]

35 minutes ago, Ballhawk said:

 

 

1) Can Beane fire McD given how they were hired as a package (surely he can technically do so, but practically I'm not sure this is in play). By extension are we saying get rid of Beane as well then? I've been pretty happy with the level of talent and the moves he's made and I'm not sure I want a new GM.

 

 

No, he can't and he can't technically.

 

The HC and GM each separately report directly to Pegula. Terry is the only one who can fire the HC. He is the only one who can fire the GM. They are not tied together.

 

Unless he fired McD and asked Beane "Do you want to go with your friend or keep your job?" and I'm almost 100% certain Beane would choose to keep his job.

[HoofHearted]

3 hours ago, dbfla10 said:

Is the risk reward of firing McDermott worth it? I don't see a coach out there that is worth the risk of firing McDermott. At the very least he has made the Bills relevant the last 5/6 years. Something the city was craving/needed.

 

Who is out there that would truly make a difference as HC.

 

IMO theres only 1 coach, and thats a trade with the rams for McVay.

I'd much rather keep McDermott and bring in someone who's worked under Kyle Shanahan as the OC. IMO that is the toughest offense to prepare for in the NFL right now, and I think it plays right into what McDermott wants to be as a football team. Tough nosed, run to set up the pass mentality with a lot of new age shifts and motions to keep a defense off kilter.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, HoofHearted said:

I'd much rather keep McDermott and bring in someone who's worked under Kyle Shanahan as the OC. IMO that is the toughest offense to prepare for in the NFL right now, and I think it plays right into what McDermott wants to be as a football team. Tough nosed, run to set up the pass mentality with a lot of new age shifts and motions to keep a defense off kilter.

 

Then what do you do if they are successful and end up the lead HC candidate for 2025? You firing McD then or just keep the OC carousel going?

 

And if you are bringing in someone as OC, you are promoting someone who has likely never called plays before. Again.

 

I'd rather make a hot OC our Head Coach since that is what will need to happen anyways.

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[jethro_tull]

3 hours ago, Araiza Curse said:

Jim Harbaugh or Ben Johnson 

no Jim.  

[Aussie Joe]

2 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

I know it’s pie in the sky, but man seeing what a weirdly brilliant wunderkind like McDaniel in Miami could do with a generational talent like Allen, would be pretty cool. 

We aren’t trading Allen to Miami…😛

Edited November 15, 2023 by Aussie Joe

[Milanos Milano]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

My wish list in this order:

 

1. Jim harbaugh

2. Ben johnson

3. Kellen Moore.

 

I know they are all gambles, but I want an offensive guy with big upside 

So many people crap on Jim, but look what he did with Kaepernick. Allen is infinitely better than he ever was. 

2 minutes ago, jethro_tull said:

no Jim.  

Why? All he has ever done was overperform. I mean he made Kaep serviceable. 

[HoofHearted]

5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

1) Then what do you do if they are successful and end up the lead HC candidate for 2025? You firing McD then or just keep the OC carousel going?

 

2) And if you are bringing in someone as OC, you are promoting someone who has likely never called plays before. Again.

 

3) I'd rather make a hot OC our Head Coach since that is what will need to happen anyways.

 

1) Deal with it if/when it happens

2) Probably

3) It's not okay to hire an OC who's never called it before, but okay to hire a HC who's never been a HC before?

[Einstein]

40 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

I'd much rather keep McDermott and bring in someone who's worked under Kyle Shanahan as the OC. IMO that is the toughest offense to prepare for in the NFL right now, and I think it plays right into what McDermott wants to be as a football team. Tough nosed, run to set up the pass mentality with a lot of new age shifts and motions to keep a defense off kilter.

I understand the sentiment, but fixing the OC unfortunately doesn't fix some glaring weaknesses we have at HC. For example: In-game decision making. 

[HoofHearted]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I understand the sentiment, but fixing the OC unfortunately doesn't fix some glaring weaknesses we have at HC. For example: In-game decision making. 

In-game decisions as in play calling or as in situationals?

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I wouldn't use the Shanahan comparison with Daboll......first off, to correct you, Wade Phillips replaced Reeves and Shanahan was more than available at the time.........so it's not that they just concluded it was Reeves who should have been canned, not Shanny.

 

When Shanahan eventually replaced Phillips he had just won the SB as the OC of the Niners.  He was the hottest commodity in the sport.

 

Daboll is extremely cold product..........he is proving just how bad he can be as a HC in NYG.   The floor is the basement with that guy at the helm and it would be highly, and unnecessarily risky for an organization like the Bills to settle for that level of coach when you have a QB in his prime. 

 

I understand not comparing Daboll to Shanahan in this scenario. I do think the Reeves to Elway as McDermott is Josh comparison may be more apt, if not exactly identical.

 

And I totally forgot Wade's season as Broncos HC. 

[Logic]

1 hour ago, Ballhawk said:

Stats like passer rating and Time of possession always make me wonder if these stats are correlative vs causative (i.e. a reflection of success rather than a cause of it). For me there are two main other considerations in firing McDermott:

 

1) Can Beane fire McD given how they were hired as a package (surely he can technically do so, but practically I'm not sure this is in play). By extension are we saying get rid of Beane as well then? I've been pretty happy with the level of talent and the moves he's made and I'm not sure I want a new GM.

 

2) How do NFL teams quantify the value of continuity in assessing personnel decisions. Many this week might say, if the continuity is flawed then what are you preserving, does that by extension mean it is absolutely without value, I doubt that. Emotional fans might think so (of which I am often one), but I doubt Terry and Beane see it this way.

 

Just ask Allen's draft mates (Darnold, Mayfield) what they think about continuity? That being said it's clearly not the whole equation as evidenced by the Dorsey/Daboll transition.

 

All this to say, I'm assuming McDermott/Beane go together, given the massive upheaval this will cause I would rather assume the risk of trotting this, at times, mis-managed team out for another year (sans-injuries, hopefully) than rolling the dice with an entirely new GM and HC.

Great post. Thanks.

I will only say that I, too, am not in favor of firing Beane. I AM in favor of firing McDermott (at season's end, assuming no turnaround resulting in playoffs).

If you think that Beane is a good GM, as I do, then letting him pick his own head coach for the first time is appealing. 

I understand what you're saying about he and McDermott being a package deal, and maybe that's the case, but we have no way of knowing. Beane just signed an extension, has stated he loves working for the Pegulas, and presumably his family is settled in Buffalo. It's hard for me to imagine him being so tied to McDermott that it's an "if he goes, I go" situation.

Personally, at this point I think my preferred outcome would be Beane staying, but the entire coaching staff being cleared out and a new one being hired.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Logic