Road to the Playoffs

[BigDingus]

8 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

There are also a lot of scenarios that they don't.  I play with the machine a lot too.  Like I said earlier... it's a coinflip.  That to me is not a good chance.  Thats a pray Dalton makes an unlikely game winning TD on 4th down type chance IMO.  Basically hoping for teams like the Bears beating the Browns and Minesota beating Cinci.  Can happen but it would be an upset IMO, even with backup QBs. Getting in at 9 wins is definitely not going to happen.

 

I totally agree. However, I didn't do anything silly like having the Bears beat the Browns or Bengals losing to the Vikings, unless out of curiosity (like my scenario 2 with the Browns going 0-4).

 

The scenarios I mentioned weren't relying on that stuff, hence why I said I was trying to check worst case scenarios. Wouldn't be very useful if I was relying on almost impossible upsets. 

 

Scenario 3 is very realistic though. Again, I tried to give each team as many wins as possible, then only messed with the weekly matchups of those teams against relevant opponents. Giving the Bengals, Texans, Colts, Broncos etc. 3 x more wins AND giving the Dolphins the division isn't me relying on upsets. It's handicapping us.

[steven50]

I still Believe (which was the whole reason I started this post) the division is very doable. The dolphins have to play Ravens Jets Cowboys and us.

Tyrek is hurt, their offensive line is a shambles and they are now playing teams with a winning record. 

 

The Ravens are looking like the cream of the AFC crop, Dallas is looking like world beaters and Buffalo is finally finding its offense. If the jets win tomorrow (big if, I no) Miami might have won their last game this season already.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by steven50

[Scott7975]

4 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

Scenario 3 is very realistic though.

 

mind giving me your game by game for each week?  Honestly, I think we still win the division even losing to the Cowboys but I'm looking for the WC alternatives in case we don't.

 

My thing with this is if "A" happens week one then the other weeks specific stuff needs to keep happening.  Otherwise it just changes which teams beat us out for the spot.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Scott7975

[Scott7975]

In case anyone wants an easy snapshot of upcoming games for the playoff race.

 

[BigDingus]

41 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

mind giving me your game by game for each week?  Honestly, I think we still win the division even losing to the Cowboys but I'm looking for the WC alternatives in case we don't.

 

My thing with this is if "A" happens week one then the other weeks specific stuff needs to keep happening.  Otherwise it just changes which teams beat us out for the spot.

 

Whew, there's so many. But here's one pretty simple one:

 

Week 15:

 

-Cowboys def. Bills 

-Bengals def. vs Vikings

-Colts def. vs Steelers (though Steelers could win & we still get 7th seed in this scenario)

-Lions def. Broncos

-Texans def. Titans

-Browns def. Bears

-Dolphins def. Jets

Note: This is about as bad for us as possible, with the exception of Lions defeating the Broncos (but that's a very realistic possibility)

 

Week 16:

 

-Bills def. Chargers

-Bengals def. Steelers (again, the Steelers could win & this still works)

-Browns def. Texans

-Colts def. Falcons

-Dolphins def. Cowboys 

-Broncos def. Patriots

Note: Made sure to give the Dolphins the win to ensure they win the East either way. Texans could definitely beat the Browns, but it's a toss up

 

Week 17:

 

-Bills def. Patriots

-Browns def. Jets

-Colts def. Raiders (though Raiders could win & it still works)

-Seahawks def. Steelers

-Texans def. Titans

-Chiefs def. Bengals

-Broncos def. Chargers

Note: All of these seem pretty likely, barring an upset

 

Week 18:

 

-Bills def. Dolphins (we still lose division)

-Ravens def. Steelers

-Browns def. Bengals

-Colts def. Texans

-Broncos def. Raiders

 

Final Note: If Texans win at this point, they get in over us. Same if the Bengals beat the Browns. However, if either team lost a previous game I predicted them to win, we'd still be in. 

 

Relevant Records/Playoff Seeds:

 

1. Ravens (13-4)

2. Chiefs (12-5)

3. Jaguars (11-6)

4. Dolphins (11-6)

5. Browns (12-5) <<<< See Note

6. Denver (10-7)

7. Bills (10-7)

*****************

8. Colts (10-7)

9. Bengals (9-8)

10. Texans (9-8)

11. Steelers (8-9)

 

Note: Browns at 12-5 isn't what's relevant. The only thing that kicks the Bills out in this scenario is if 3 x AFC North teams finish at 10-7 or better. Hell, they can all have winning records, but as long as there's only 2 with 10-7+ records, Bills still make it here.

 

Here's a link (sorry it's huge): 

 

 https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547600~2~401547604~1~401547607~2~401547606~1~401547594~1~401547595~2~401547598~2~401547599~2~401547605~1~401547603~2~401547608~2~401547596~2~401547597~1~401547602~2~401547601~2~401547611~2~401547626~1~401547639~1~401547647~2~401547610~2~401547609~1~401547612~2~401547613~2~401547614~2~401547616~2~401547617~2~401547622~1~401547241~1~401547351~1~401547621~1~401547620~1~401547619~1~401547618~2~401547615~2~401547623~1~401547624~1~401547625~1~401547627~2~401547628~1~401547629~1~401547631~1~401547630~1~401547637~1~401547235~1~401547636~1~401547632~2~401547633~1~401547634~1~401547635~2~401547638~2~401547646~2~401547641~2~401547648~2~401547640~2~401547642~1~401547650~2~401547651~1~401547643~1~401547644~1~401547652~2~401547645~2~401547653~2

Edited December 16, 2023 by BigDingus

[Scott7975]

43 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

Whew, there's so many. But here's one pretty simple one:

 

Week 15:

 

-Cowboys def. Bills 

-Bengals def. vs Vikings

-Colts def. vs Steelers (though Steelers could win & we still get 7th seed in this scenario)

-Lions def. Broncos

-Texans def. Titans

-Browns def. Bears

-Dolphins def. Jets

Note: This is about as bad for us as possible, with the exception of Lions defeating the Broncos (but that's a very realistic possibility)

 

Week 16:

 

-Bills def. Chargers

-Bengals def. Steelers (again, the Steelers could win & this still works)

-Browns def. Texans

-Colts def. Falcons

-Dolphins def. Cowboys 

-Broncos def. Patriots

Note: Made sure to give the Dolphins the win to ensure they win the East either way. Texans could definitely beat the Browns, but it's a toss up

 

Week 17:

 

-Bills def. Patriots

-Browns def. Jets

-Colts def. Raiders (though Raiders could win & it still works)

-Seahawks def. Steelers

-Texans def. Titans

-Chiefs def. Bengals

-Broncos def. Chargers

Note: All of these seem pretty likely, barring an upset

 

Week 18:

 

-Bills def. Dolphins (we still lose division)

-Ravens def. Steelers

-Browns def. Bengals

-Colts def. Texans

-Broncos def. Raiders

 

Final Note: If Texans win at this point, they get in over us. Same if the Bengals beat the Browns. However, if either team lost a previous game I predicted them to win, we'd still be in. 

 

Relevant Records/Playoff Seeds:

 

1. Ravens (13-4)

2. Chiefs (12-5)

3. Jaguars (11-6)

4. Dolphins (11-6)

5. Browns (12-5) <<<< See Note

6. Denver (10-7)

7. Bills (10-7)

*****************

8. Colts (10-7)

9. Bengals (9-8)

10. Texans (9-8)

11. Steelers (8-9)

 

Note: Browns at 12-5 isn't what's relevant. The only thing that kicks the Bills out in this scenario is if 3 x AFC North teams finish at 10-7 or better. Hell, they can all have winning records, but as long as there's only 2 with 10-7+ records, Bills still make it here.

 

Here's a link (sorry it's huge): 

 

 https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547600~2~401547604~1~401547607~2~401547606~1~401547594~1~401547595~2~401547598~2~401547599~2~401547605~1~401547603~2~401547608~2~401547596~2~401547597~1~401547602~2~401547601~2~401547611~2~401547626~1~401547639~1~401547647~2~401547610~2~401547609~1~401547612~2~401547613~2~401547614~2~401547616~2~401547617~2~401547622~1~401547241~1~401547351~1~401547621~1~401547620~1~401547619~1~401547618~2~401547615~2~401547623~1~401547624~1~401547625~1~401547627~2~401547628~1~401547629~1~401547631~1~401547630~1~401547637~1~401547235~1~401547636~1~401547632~2~401547633~1~401547634~1~401547635~2~401547638~2~401547646~2~401547641~2~401547648~2~401547640~2~401547642~1~401547650~2~401547651~1~401547643~1~401547644~1~401547652~2~401547645~2~401547653~2

 

Right, that's all reasonable. My thing is that in that scenario, there are 4 different games that if any of them go the other way the Bills would be out.  Any of the 4 games going the other way is also reasonable. So, while you have shown 1 way the Bills can get in, I can show you 4 different ways that put the Bills out based off of that.  To me, that's not good odds.

[BigDingus]

49 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Right, that's all reasonable. My thing is that in that scenario, there are 4 different games that if any of them go the other way the Bills would be out.  Any of the 4 games going the other way is also reasonable. So, while you have shown 1 way the Bills can get in, I can show you 4 different ways that put the Bills out based off of that.  To me, that's not good odds.

 

But I'm saying in the scenario I referenced, i handicapped the Bills a lot. 

 

The point was that within that setup, many things are way more likely to go BETTER than that. That's a bad outcome, where very few things go right for us. If any of those teams lose more than once, it's even easier than my scenario. 

 

Some of those games don't even require a specific winner and get easier week to week. I was planning for bad outcomes that still allow us to sneak in, not perfect scenarios where everything falls into place. 

[Scott7975]

33 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

But I'm saying in the scenario I referenced, i handicapped the Bills a lot. 

 

The point was that within that setup, many things are way more likely to go BETTER than that. That's a bad outcome, where very few things go right for us. If any of those teams lose more than once, it's even easier than my scenario. 

 

Some of those games don't even require a specific winner and get easier week to week. I was planning for bad outcomes that still allow us to sneak in, not perfect scenarios where everything falls into place. 

 

I don't agree with you.  There are a lot of scenarios that the Bills don't get in via WC that are very reasonable outcomes of games.  We shall see in the coming weeks.  Hopefully we just win the division and it doesn't matter.  That is our best path and I think a likely one.

[Drew21PA]

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Right, that's all reasonable. My thing is that in that scenario, there are 4 different games that if any of them go the other way the Bills would be out.  Any of the 4 games going the other way is also reasonable. So, while you have shown 1 way the Bills can get in, I can show you 4 different ways that put the Bills out based off of that.  To me, that's not good odds.

So you’re sayin there’s a chance….

 

…..yesssss

[Drew21PA]

4 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Whew, there's so many. But here's one pretty simple one:

 

Week 15:

 

-Cowboys def. Bills 

-Bengals def. vs Vikings

-Colts def. vs Steelers (though Steelers could win & we still get 7th seed in this scenario)

-Lions def. Broncos

-Texans def. Titans

-Browns def. Bears

-Dolphins def. Jets

Note: This is about as bad for us as possible, with the exception of Lions defeating the Broncos (but that's a very realistic possibility)

 

Week 16:

 

-Bills def. Chargers

-Bengals def. Steelers (again, the Steelers could win & this still works)

-Browns def. Texans

-Colts def. Falcons

-Dolphins def. Cowboys 

-Broncos def. Patriots

Note: Made sure to give the Dolphins the win to ensure they win the East either way. Texans could definitely beat the Browns, but it's a toss up

 

Week 17:

 

-Bills def. Patriots

-Browns def. Jets

-Colts def. Raiders (though Raiders could win & it still works)

-Seahawks def. Steelers

-Texans def. Titans

-Chiefs def. Bengals

-Broncos def. Chargers

Note: All of these seem pretty likely, barring an upset

 

Week 18:

 

-Bills def. Dolphins (we still lose division)

-Ravens def. Steelers

-Browns def. Bengals

-Colts def. Texans

-Broncos def. Raiders

 

Final Note: If Texans win at this point, they get in over us. Same if the Bengals beat the Browns. However, if either team lost a previous game I predicted them to win, we'd still be in. 

 

Relevant Records/Playoff Seeds:

 

1. Ravens (13-4)

2. Chiefs (12-5)

3. Jaguars (11-6)

4. Dolphins (11-6)

5. Browns (12-5) <<<< See Note

6. Denver (10-7)

7. Bills (10-7)

*****************

8. Colts (10-7)

9. Bengals (9-8)

10. Texans (9-8)

11. Steelers (8-9)

 

Note: Browns at 12-5 isn't what's relevant. The only thing that kicks the Bills out in this scenario is if 3 x AFC North teams finish at 10-7 or better. Hell, they can all have winning records, but as long as there's only 2 with 10-7+ records, Bills still make it here.

 

Here's a link (sorry it's huge): 

 

 https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547600~2~401547604~1~401547607~2~401547606~1~401547594~1~401547595~2~401547598~2~401547599~2~401547605~1~401547603~2~401547608~2~401547596~2~401547597~1~401547602~2~401547601~2~401547611~2~401547626~1~401547639~1~401547647~2~401547610~2~401547609~1~401547612~2~401547613~2~401547614~2~401547616~2~401547617~2~401547622~1~401547241~1~401547351~1~401547621~1~401547620~1~401547619~1~401547618~2~401547615~2~401547623~1~401547624~1~401547625~1~401547627~2~401547628~1~401547629~1~401547631~1~401547630~1~401547637~1~401547235~1~401547636~1~401547632~2~401547633~1~401547634~1~401547635~2~401547638~2~401547646~2~401547641~2~401547648~2~401547640~2~401547642~1~401547650~2~401547651~1~401547643~1~401547644~1~401547652~2~401547645~2~401547653~2

Good take here man I like it.  See what you’re getting at

 

scott and I have been talking he just isn’t optimistic - wants them in but stay guy in him says naw.  
 

I get it - hard to pull for any sort of luck this year with this team 

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

Good take here man I like it.  See what you’re getting at

 

scott and I have been talking he just isn’t optimistic - wants them in but stay guy in him says naw.  
 

I get it - hard to pull for any sort of luck this year with this team 

 

I am optimistic... I think we win the division.  I'm just not optimistic about a WC if we don't.  That could change in a week or two.

[Drew21PA]

You the man Scott _ love the work you bring here dude it’s all good 

[<bills4life>]

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

I've just been focusing on less perfect scenarios, looking at ways beyond going on a 5 win streak to close the season. Some other scenarios include:

 

Scenario 1 - Bills lose to the Cowboys and Dolphins. There's still a lot of ways the Bills could make the playoffs, mainly because a lot of the 7-6 teams play each other. 

 

Scenario 2 - Bills beat the Cowboys, but inexplicably lose a game to the Chargers OR Patriots, as well as the Dolphins. Pretty similar to Scenario 1, though a Browns collapse gave me way more results with the Bills making it in. 

 

Scenario 3 (BEST) - Bills lose to the Cowboys, but go on to win their next 3 games. Aside from winning out, this is the option that offers the most flexibility (shocker, 3 wins is better than 2 wins). After messing with the playoff simulator for what feels like millions of hours, you get a ton of ways the Bills make it in. 

 

You could have all 4 NFC North teams finish above .500, Dolphins still take the AFC East, plus both the Jags & Texans getting in, and the Bills at 10-7 would still make it in under most scenarios. As long as the Broncos *OR* Texans lose 2 x games, 10 wins is VERY LIKELY to get the Bills in.

 

If not, teams like the Colts, Texans, Broncos and the Browns *OR* Bengals *OR* Steelers all finish 10-7, the Bills get in. We just couldn't have 3 x teams in the AFC North at 10-7 or better (in this scenario). Thankfully, a lot of these 7-6 teams play each other to close the year. 

 

Week 15: Steelers at Colts 

Week 16: Bengals at Steelers / Browns at Texans

Week 17: Bengals at Chiefs (even if the Bills finish 9-8, a Chiefs win here with the rest of the matchups could still get us in with the first 2 scenarios)

Week 18: Browns at Bengals / Texans at Colts

 

Note: One game to really watch is week 18 Steelers at Ravens. If the Ravens & Chiefs both keep winning, Baltimore may be resting starters here, which could really hurt us.

 

 

 

Absolutely not.  9-8 is not getting you into the playoffs let alone, “still a lot of ways”. In this scenario the bills would have a 3 percent chance.

[SoCal Deek]

I have no interest in backing into the playoffs. I’m looking at our playoff schedule starting a week ahead of the rest of the league. The Week 18 Miami game in all likelihood will be a play-in game for the Bills….which I think is great! 

[DapperCam]

All these games that are “unlikely” to be losses are not set in stone at all. The Jags have lost 2 weeks in a row. The Texans got obliterated by the Jets, and the Dolphins lost to the Titans. The Steelers have lost 2 in a row to 2 win teams.

 

If anything, the teams tied/ahead of us for the wild card kind of stink and have been playing above their heads this season. No loss is “unlikely” for a team playing their 2nd or 3rd string QB. Which is coincidentally every wild card team we are competing with except Denver.

[Drew21PA]

25 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I have no interest in backing into the playoffs. I’m looking at our playoff schedule starting a week ahead of the rest of the league. The Week 18 Miami game in all likelihood will be a play-in game for the Bills….which I think is great! 

Whhh get there and the season starts over

 

Doesn’t  matter how you do it

Just now, DapperCam said:

All these games that are “unlikely” to be losses are not set in stone at all. The Jags have lost 2 weeks in a row. The Texans got obliterated by the Jets, and the Dolphins lost to the Titans. The Steelers have lost 2 in a row to 2 win teams.

 

If anything, the teams tied/ahead of us for the wild card kind of stink and have been playing above their heads this season. No loss is “unlikely” for a team playing their 2nd or 3rd string QB. Which is coincidentally every wild card team we are competing with except Denver.

REALLY HARD to judge those teams 

 

same can be said about buffalo

 

rhe media is funny right now - they WANT TO BUY IN!  
 

but can’t becuase it’s been such a rollercoaster this year 

 

even if we beat the cowboys they will still be reluctant becuase we have lost some stupid games 

[BigDingus]

Just

20 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Whew, there's so many. But here's one pretty simple one:

 

Week 15:

 

-Cowboys def. Bills 

-Bengals def. vs Vikings ✅

-Colts def. vs Steelers ✅️

-Lions def. Broncos ✅

-Texans def. Titans

-Browns def. Bears

-Dolphins def. Jets

Note: This is about as bad for us as possible, with the exception of Lions defeating the Broncos (but that's a very realistic possibility)

 

Just wanted to say, my very reasonable playoff scenario is off to a good start 😉

Edited December 17, 2023 by BigDingus

[DapperCam]

NYT playoff simulator says 71% chance of playoffs if we win tomorrow and the Dolphins lose with today’s results. Texans or Browns losing bumps it up to 75%.

 

Seems like this model considers the division to be our best path.

 

 

[Rubes]

 

[BigDingus]

7 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

NYT playoff simulator says 71% chance of playoffs if we win tomorrow and the Dolphins lose with today’s results. Texans or Browns losing bumps it up to 75%.

 

Seems like this model considers the division to be our best path.

 

Even if we lose tomorrow & the Dolphins still take the division, we will have a really good shot of making it at 10-7 with 3 x additional conference wins.

 

5 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

 

That's awesome! I just don't have much faith the Bills will finish the season with 5 straight wins (in a stretch against the Chiefs, Cowboys & Dolphins), but there are still plenty of ways if we slip up.

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by BigDingus