Road to the Playoffs

[RiotAct]

35 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Even if they lose the next two games (which i don't think they will)...the Bills will still be on the "in the hunt" graphic.  

 

But I do think Buffalo has a good shot to steal this game at Philly.  The Eagles will be coming off this huge emotional MNF revenge game at KC.

yeah; Philly will be on short rest… I like it.

 

 

Too bad that 2/3rds of our starting defense will be out for this game

[zow2]

As much as Zach Wilson sucks,  Saleh needs to play him against Miami at home on Black Friday.  It's their best chance to win.  He plays better at home.  Someone like Boyle is not going to start and threaten Miami.  We need the Jets to bounce back in this spot. 

[MikePJ76]

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

Even if they lose the next two games (which i don't think they will)...the Bills will still be on the "in the hunt" graphic.  

 

But I do think Buffalo has a good shot to steal this game at Philly.  The Eagles will be coming off this huge emotional MNF revenge game at KC.

I am a believer in Philly blowing the division because of their pass defense starting with a loss tonight.  On paper they look unbeatable because of how good they are on the lines of scrimmage.  

 

I just really think they are going to blow the division, lose at Dallas in December and get knocked out in the wild card round.  Everything has been going to good for them and it has looked too easy.  

 

as always I am probably wrong.  

Edited November 20, 2023 by MikePJ76

[C.Biscuit97]

Not to be dramatic but if this team with Allen can’t make the playoffs with these qbs in the afc, it will go down as one of the worst seasons in Bills history. These other starters on most of the contenders are disgusting. 

11 minutes ago, zow2 said:

As much as Zach Wilson sucks,  Saleh needs to play him against Miami at home on Black Friday.  It's their best chance to win.  He plays better at home.  Someone like Boyle is not going to start and threaten Miami.  We need the Jets to bounce back in this spot. 

This is one of the saddest things I have read and would take me to a dark place as a Jets fan but it’s true. Somehow, they have a backup qb who threw 1 td to 13 ints in college. How are there no good qbs?

[MikePJ76]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Not to be dramatic but if this team with Allen can’t make the playoffs with these qbs in the afc, it will go down as one of the worst seasons in Bills history. These other starters on most of the contenders are disgusting. 

This is one of the saddest things I have read and would take me to a dark place as a Jets fan but it’s true. Somehow, they have a backup qb who threw 1 td to 13 ints in college. How are there no good qbs?

100% not one of the worst seasons in Bills history.  That is a ridiculous statement.

 

 

[zow2]

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Not to be dramatic but if this team with Allen can’t make the playoffs with these qbs in the afc, it will go down as one of the worst seasons in Bills history. These other starters on most of the contenders are disgusting. 

 

It will be terrible but the schedule down the stretch may prevent it from happening, unfortunately.   But honestly, if they lose three or four to Philly, KC, Dal, Chargers, Miami...then Buffalo is truly not a playoff team and they would've fizzled out had they gotten in.  We shall see. I think they can win 3 of those 5, and then New England.

14 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

I am a believer in Philly blowing the division because of their pass defense starting with a loss tonight.  On paper they look unbeatable because of how good they are on the lines of scrimmage.  

 

I just really think they are going to blow the division, lose at Dallas in December and get knocked out in the wild card round.  Everything has been going to good for them and it has looked too easy.  

 

as always I am probably wrong.  

 

Let's be real.  In two games Sam Howell threw for 290 and 397, 5 TDs and 1 int against Philadelphia.  They aren't some juggernaut this season.

[The Frankish Reich]

20 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is one of the saddest things I have read and would take me to a dark place as a Jets fan but it’s true. Somehow, they have a backup qb who threw 1 td to 13 ints in college. How are there no good qbs?

I find it odd that they didn't elevate Trevor Siemien to #2 by now. Is he a good QB? Emphatically no. Is he a reasonably competent game manager who could win half his games, maybe a little more, on a team with an excellent defense? Definitely.

[mjt328]

Yesterday's game was fun.  And the NFL graphics still have us within a half game of the #6-7 wildcard spot.

But mathematically, the Bills are still very unlikely to make the playoffs.

 

I've been playing with the ESPN simulator.  Due to their losses in the conference, the Bills lose pretty much every tie-breaker in the AFC. 

Bottom line, a 10-7 record probably isn't going to be good enough.

 

To finish with 11 wins, the Bills cannot lose more than once more this season.  Against a schedule that includes possibly the three best teams in the NFL:  Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys.  Not to mention the 7-3 Dolphins.

 

Otherwise, they would need the Browns to lose 5/7, the Texans to lose 4/7 or the Steelers to lose 4/7... and hope another team like the Broncos, Bengals, Colts, etc. doesn't sneak into the picture as well.

 

[BillsShredder83]

13 hours ago, TFBillsfan said:

Gotta beat NE, Chargers and then at least get two more at the minimum out of Philly, KC, Dallas and Miami. Even at 10-7 I worry about us losing to tiebreakers. Lose to Philly and KC and the playoffs maybe unreachable with literally giving games away against NYJ, NE and Denver.

All I know is if we pull it off it'll be due to the offense clicking, and if they can sneak in they'll be battle tested! I dig it

[mannc]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I find it odd that they didn't elevate Trevor Siemien to #2 by now. Is he a good QB? Emphatically no. Is he a reasonably competent game manager who could win half his games, maybe a little more, on a team with an excellent defense? Definitely.

I’m kinda surprised Matt Barkley hasn’t played for someone this year…he’s better than a lot of the bums who’ve been taking snaps around the league this year…

[TheBrownBear]

34 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Yesterday's game was fun.  And the NFL graphics still have us within a half game of the #6-7 wildcard spot.

But mathematically, the Bills are still very unlikely to make the playoffs.

 

I've been playing with the ESPN simulator.  Due to their losses in the conference, the Bills lose pretty much every tie-breaker in the AFC. 

Bottom line, a 10-7 record probably isn't going to be good enough.

 

To finish with 11 wins, the Bills cannot lose more than once more this season.  Against a schedule that includes possibly the three best teams in the NFL:  Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys.  Not to mention the 7-3 Dolphins.

 

Otherwise, they would need the Browns to lose 5/7, the Texans to lose 4/7 or the Steelers to lose 4/7... and hope another team like the Broncos, Bengals, Colts, etc. doesn't sneak into the picture as well.

 

Yes. Things looks very bleak as far as I can tell.  The Denver loss was the dagger.  The Bills absolutely could not afford to lose that game.  It effectively ended their season barring a miracle run through the best teams in the NFL.  For all intents and purposes, the playoffs have already started for the Bills and the next six games are all win or go home, single elimination contests.

[DapperCam]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

As much as Zach Wilson sucks,  Saleh needs to play him against Miami at home on Black Friday.  It's their best chance to win.  He plays better at home.  Someone like Boyle is not going to start and threaten Miami.  We need the Jets to bounce back in this spot. 

He really shouldn’t have benched him in our game based on performance. No way Boyle is better.

 

I think it was a symbolic gesture to the other players because he is losing the locker room now.

[The Frankish Reich]

24 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Yes. Things looks very bleak as far as I can tell.  The Denver loss was the dagger.  The Bills absolutely could not afford to lose that game.  It effectively ended their season barring a miracle run through the best teams in the NFL.  For all intents and purposes, the playoffs have already started for the Bills and the next six games are all win or go home, single elimination contests.

Sad but true.

But a "miracle run" isn't necessary. What is probably necessary is beating our divisional rivals and the fading Chargers, AND winning at least one against the Eagles/Chiefs/Cowboys. Certainly doable, but not much room for error.

 

UPDATE: Right now, the win over the Jets did help a bit - 26% chance of making the playoffs (vs. 19% before that game). Let's say we beat the Pats (should be playing for the #1 pick) and the Dolphins (may be resting starters?) again. Knowing nothing else about results of other games, that raises our chances to 55% - more than I ever would've guessed.

Then let's say we beat the Chargers (again, not knowing results of any other game): all the way up to 71%!

But what we can't do is go 0-3 against the good teams with something to play for. If we lose to the Eagles, Chiefs, and Cowboys, it would be back down to 10%. Ouch.

BUT ... beat the Cowboys at home, lose to the Eagles/Chiefs, beat the Chargers/Pats/Dolphins? ... 63%.

 

So that's the route to the playoffs. 

- Win our remaining divisional games in Weeks 17 and 18, very possibly against teams with nothing to play for.

- Beat the Chargers

- Win at least ONE of the Eagles/Chief/Cowboys games

- still get a little help.

 

Got all that?

 

(projections all from the NYT playoff simulator)

[RunTheBall]

I think we need to win the Division to get in. So we need to be 1 game behind Miami before we play them in week 18. That’s unlikely but it’s doable. Can’t lose another AFC game if we want a chance at the wild card though. That means W’s against Miami/NE/KC/Chargers

I’m counting on Miami’s usual December swoon but they look much better this year unfortunately.

Edited November 20, 2023 by RunTheBall

[mannc]

46 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Yes. Things looks very bleak as far as I can tell.  The Denver loss was the dagger.  The Bills absolutely could not afford to lose that game.  It effectively ended their season barring a miracle run through the best teams in the NFL.  For all intents and purposes, the playoffs have already started for the Bills and the next six games are all win or go home, single elimination contests.

It would be sadly ironic, given all the injuries this teams is fighting through, that their precious bye week might come after they are effectively eliminated from playoff contention...another poor McDermott decision (he had the option of taking the bye week immediately after the London game).  

Edited November 20, 2023 by mannc

[RichRiderBills]

2 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

I am a believer in Philly blowing the division because of their pass defense starting with a loss tonight.  On paper they look unbeatable because of how good they are on the lines of scrimmage.  

 

I just really think they are going to blow the division, lose at Dallas in December and get knocked out in the wild card round.  Everything has been going to good for them and it has looked too easy.  

 

as always I am probably wrong.  

 

They lost to the Jets and have snuck out several wins. The DL is not what it once was. 

[Scott7975]

14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And now?

and now I just woke up and will have a look in a bit.  You can't pretend what I said wasn't true just because we won a football game though.

14 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

That, while technically possible, is just not going to happen.

 

A 12-5 team is not missing the playoffs when 7 teams get in 

 

Just like the Bills winning out, while technically possible, is not likely to happen.  I said the Bills didn't control their own destiny.  He said I was wrong.  I proved it.  Nothing more.

[Mango]

Just playing around with the NYT, this one is an uphill climb. Watson and Burrow being out are super helpful. CJ Strouds ascension sucks. 

But going through the ESPN machine it looks like with a win against the Eagles we would officially have a wild card spot. At least for the week. 

[JerseyBills]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

 

It will be terrible but the schedule down the stretch may prevent it from happening, unfortunately.   But honestly, if they lose three or four to Philly, KC, Dal, Chargers, Miami...then Buffalo is truly not a playoff team and they would've fizzled out had they gotten in.  We shall see. I think they can win 3 of those 5, and then New England.

 

Let's be real.  In two games Sam Howell threw for 290 and 397, 5 TDs and 1 int against Philadelphia.  They aren't some juggernaut this season.

Neither is kc imo. Saw them play 4 5 games and were very underwhelming. 

There's no team we can't beat if we don't shoot ourselves in the foot

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

As much as Zach Wilson sucks,  Saleh needs to play him against Miami at home on Black Friday.  It's their best chance to win.  He plays better at home.  Someone like Boyle is not going to start and threaten Miami.  We need the Jets to bounce back in this spot. 

 

Wilson does suck but he's still better than whoever that other guy was they put in last night.

Edited November 20, 2023 by Scott7975