Bills are 7-14 in games decided by 7 pts or less, last 3 seasons

[DuckyBoys]

1 minute ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

It's a loss that's gotten lost in the shuffle (especially after 13 Seconds), but that playoff loss in Houston was inexcusable and a huge precursor to the loser, choke-artist ball to which the Sean McDermott Bills teams have become accustomed.

from memory we had them in 4th and forever and gave up a checkdown for a huge gain

 

Go back and look at the end of the game last night  They panned to McDermott on that last drive and the look on his face was sheer terror It wasnt confidence it wasnt we go this  It was how did we get to this point and what do I do now?   He knows the world knows he just doesnt have it to gut out the tough moments

[Ralonzo]

21 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Kansas City is 37-26 and Pittsburgh is 48-39-2.  ALL other teams have losing records in games decided by 7 points or less.

 

 

How does that even work? If it's not KC or Pitt involved, both teams lose?

[DuckyBoys]

well we havent played well in any of the close games this year and really could have easily lost the Giants and Bucs games on walk off losses at the buzzer  Defense cant hold a lead at the end or get a stop at the end  The offense isnt clicking , they made stupid mistakes and we have seen zero adjustments other than typical McDermott word salad

[Big Turk]

20 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

I actually didn't leave out 2020, I mentioned that year second line in my post. It's part of what makes the last three years so frustrating. 

 

I feel like the point you're trying to make is that everyone sucks in one score games, so we shouldn't judge McDermott too harshly in this regard. Which is fine, except the top team in this graph is the exact team that stands between us and a championship EVERY year. 

 

Frankly the Chiefs and Mahomes are the primary team I'm concerned about comparing against. And as you've illustrated perfectly: the Chiefs close out and win these games very well. We don't. 

 

If you're OK with that, that's fine. But our best chance for a super bowl came down to 13 seconds. 

 

Remind me: the top team in your graph won that game, didn't they?

 

Well, I guess it's fine if we lost since your chart shows 27 other teams probably would have lost too. I guess? Right. 

 

I still think it is mostly a BS stat.  So the Bills should get punished because they pounded teams down instead of "playing with their food" like KC does so often? Realistically there is no reason KC should be involved in THAT many close games based on their offense.

 

Would it make you feel better if the Bills had decided to let more teams hang around instead of making it a 30 point lead by the 3rd quarter?

Edited November 14, 2023 by Big Turk

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I still think it is mostly a BS stat.  So the Bills should get punished because they pounded teams down instead of "playing with their food" like KC does so often? Realistically there is no reason KC should be involved in THAT many close games based on their offense.

 

Would it make you feel better if the Bills had decided to let more teams hang around instead of making it a 30 point lead by the 3rd quarter?

I’d feel better if we didn’t puke all over ourselves at the end of close games.  

[FilthyBeast]

But I'm sure some homers will point out how this team 'blows out' bad teams in a majority of their wins like it actually means something.

[teef]

Just now, FilthyBeast said:

But I'm sure some homers will point out how this team 'blows out' bad teams in a majority of their wins like it actually means something.

you are the worst kind of person.

[Yobogoya!]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I still think it is mostly a BS stat.  So the Bills should get punished because they pounded teams down instead of "playing with their food" like KC does so often? Realistically there is no reason KC should be involved in THAT many close games based on their offense.

 

Would it make you feel better if the Bills had decided to let more teams hang around instead of making it a 30 point lead by the 3rd quarter?

 

Lol, I'm really not sure why this is your hill to die on right now. 

 

Regardless of how you get there, if the game is close at the end someone is (probably) going to win it. This season we're 2-5 in those games, and the two games we won the argument could be made we never should have had to survive a last gasp effort by those teams. Especially Tyrod and the Giants, it's just inexcusable. 

 

But if you're ok with our clown-shoes coaching staff sending 12 players onto the field to blow another close game, in prime time, at home, in laughable fashion, go ahead... keep defending them on this. 

[Big Turk]

Something to chew on...

 

https://jaydpauley.medium.com/is-winning-close-games-in-the-nfl-luck-6118d3d8a701

 

"To find out if close game records are random, I plotted teams’ records in games decided by 3 or fewer points (or OT) in a year (horizontal axis) and then their records in close games the next year (vertical axis) and this is what it looks like:

 

 

There is no correlation from one year to the next, suggesting almost complete randomness in close games. Just for illustration purposes, the fake data below shows what a strong correlation might look like."

 

2 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

Lol, I'm really not sure why this is your hill to die on right now. 

 

Regardless of how you get there, if the game is close at the end someone is (probably) going to win it. This season we're 2-5 in those games, and the two games we won the argument could be made we never should have had to survive a last gasp effort by those teams. Especially Tyrod and the Giants, it's just inexcusable. 

 

But if you're ok with our clown-shoes coaching staff sending 12 players onto the field to blow another close game, in prime time, at home, in laughable fashion, go ahead... keep defending them on this. 

 

Because statistically speaking close game records over any given length of time are almost completely random and fluctuate heavily from one year to the next with  a lot of "regression to the mean" of teams that won tons of close games one year and then lose a lot of them the following year(ie, Minnesota Vikings this year).

[FilthyBeast]

4 minutes ago, teef said:

you are the worst kind of person.

 

Why is that Teef, because I'm posting and saying the same exact thing I have for years about this failure of a head coach and organization and others are just finally catching up to it?

 

You can only avoid the inevitable for so long......

[Big Turk]

I went back and hand counted Bills games since 2020 on PFR's site and the Bills have a 13-14 record in 1 score games since 2020.  So basically, they were .500 before last night's game. Certainly not as "woeful" as the OP is trying to make out and pointing almost directly towards there being no correlation from one year to the next in terms of records in 1 score games.

 

If you look at the Bills "expected" win totals over the last 4 seasons, they pretty much alternate. 

In 2020, the Bills went 13-3 but expected wins were 10.6.

In 2021, the Bills went 11-6 but expected wins were 13.1.

In 2022 the Bills went 13-3  but expected wins were 12.0. 

This year the Bills are 5-5 but expected wins are 7. 

 

We are seeing how randomness in close games work first hand to a large degree.

 

Not sure what is up with statmuse, that site is usually pretty good with those type of things.

Edited November 14, 2023 by Big Turk

[Yobogoya!]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Something to chew on...

 

https://jaydpauley.medium.com/is-winning-close-games-in-the-nfl-luck-6118d3d8a701

 

"To find out if close game records are random, I plotted teams’ records in games decided by 3 or fewer points (or OT) in a year (horizontal axis) and then their records in close games the next year (vertical axis) and this is what it looks like:

 

 

There is no correlation from one year to the next, suggesting almost complete randomness in close games. Just for illustration purposes, the fake data below shows what a strong correlation might look like."

 

 

Because statistically speaking close game records over any given length of time are almost completely random and fluctuate heavily from one year to the next with  a lot of "regression to the mean" of teams that won tons of close games one year and then lose a lot of them the following year(ie, Minnesota Vikings this year).

 

The data is actually interesting in a vacuum, but it's missing context.

 

It may SUGGEST RANDOMNESS, but these games are NOT determined at random. This isn't a Madden simulator. 

 

In real time, coaches are making decisions and calling plays. At the end of these games, players are on the field trying to execute those decisions.

 

Those decisions have led to such infamous outcomes as the Hail Murray and 13 Seconds. They've led to us losing in humiliating fashion to mediocre teams several times this year. 

 

Was it "random" that Tom Brady and Belichick routinely won these games?

 

Is it "random" that Mahomes and Reid now do the same?

 

Well, like you say: It's food for thought I guess. 😏

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

The data is actually interesting in a vacuum, but it's missing context.

 

It may SUGGEST RANDOMNESS, but these games are NOT determined at random. This isn't a Madden simulator. 

 

In real time, coaches are making decisions and calling plays. At the end of these games, players are on the field trying to execute those decisions.

 

Those decisions have led to such infamous outcomes as the Hail Murray and 13 Seconds. They've led to us losing in humiliating fashion to mediocre teams several times this year. 

 

Was it "random" that Tom Brady and Belichick routinely won these games?

 

Is it "random" that Mahomes and Reid now do the same?

 

Well, like you say: It's food for thought I guess. 😏

 

And the difference between a missed throw by 2 inches or a tipped pass or an official's call at the right time(or several right times in some games) can decide things that just as easily could have went the other way.  

 

Funny that Mahomes was the one who ended the game last year in a close game with an INT against the Bills who apparently "Suck" in close games(but actually don't with a 13-14 record since 2020) then right?

 

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Big Turk

[teef]

31 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Why is that Teef, because I'm posting and saying the same exact thing I have for years about this failure of a head coach and organization and others are just finally catching up to it?

 

You can only avoid the inevitable for so long......

no...because you're a phins fan who for some reason wants to post here under the guise of a bills fan.  when things are good you're no where to be found.  when things go bad you're here to celebrate.  remember when you lied to everyone last year about that twitter account of yours?  to the point where you blamed me for it?  yeah...the worst.