Notes from the Cinci Game

[Beast]

I like what you said about we aren’t fast as an offense. That is so true and it seems we do nothing to attempt to take advantage of the speed we do have.

 

For instance, it seems we almost always have Cook slip out of the backfield and sit underneath. I have no issue with this as it is a nice 5-8 yard gain as coverage from all angles quickly converge. The point being Cook is stationary when he catches the ball. 

 

Cook is a very fast player. I don’t recall ever seeing him deployed on a wheel route that he may actually be able to just use flat out speed to beat defenders for a big play. I’m not trying to compare era’s but Thurman Thomas was used on these routes very successfully and though Thurman was a better receiving threat than Cook is, Cook is faster than Thurman was. I’d love to see the Bills at least try this. And not ***** can it if it doesn’t work the first time. Give the defense something else to think about.

 

And I won’t even get into the way Harty is not being used.

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Beast

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

It’s frustrating to continually see us playing with zone eyes on these zone blitzes - man match and give your rush a chance.

 

Sounds like a coaching issue, yes? We talk a lot about player execution versus coaching on here, but it seems to me that the former is following from the latter. I don't believe, for example, that a seasoned veteran like Micah Hyde would be making errors like that on his own if he was being prepared the right way. Similarly I don't believe Josh Allen would take a 1v1 deep shot to Deonte Harty if he was being prepared the right away. I think on both sides of the ball there is a big lack of detail from the coaching, and a lack of understanding of each player's strengths/weaknesses, and this is leading to many of these errors that we attribute solely to player execution.

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by HappyDays

[Beck Water]

21 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Both Bengals lines just look stronger and faster on tape

 

I don't know how much of that is due to scheme but it's like they knew they were going to win

 

This is just my opinion, but I thought the Bills played like they didn't want to be in Cincinnati in that stadium playing the Bengals that night.  I think if you looked at different tape of our lines and of the Bengals lines against different opponents, you might think the opposite.

 

I'd love some of the guys here who have played, especially on OL or DL to comment, but I've been told (by players/former players at different levels) that "defense (meaning DL) is a state of mind" and "you win in your mind first" (that from a HOF LT).  That's what's behind Marv Levy's "where else would you rather be than right here, right now" and Poyer's "Be where your feet are".  You have to 100% be in the game, mentally and physically, or you make mental mistakes on your assignment and get physically whupped.  And if you do get physically whupped on a play, you have to flush it and focus on the next play.

 

People think football players are big dumb galoots and maybe there's some of that at the HS and at the lower college level, but professional football is clearly an elite mental game that also involves beating the crap out of the guy you're assigned to beat.  Yes, guys can and will at times be physically overmatched, but at the professional level there's not usually that huge of a difference between backups and starters that an un-dinged backup who is 100% mentally in the game and physically revved up can't hold his own or beat an opposing starter who is a bit dinged (by mid season they all are), hesitant (thinking too much) or mentally, just a little bit somewhere else.

 

I think that stadium and evening right now is Bad Times, Bad Times for the Bills and they're all thinking about it.  They're trying not to think about it - no doubt they've talked things through as a team and in position meetings and their sports psychologists and chaplains have been busy.  But there's a "don't think about elephants" aspect.  Even for players who are not super-stitious but only a "little stitious" it brings back very bad times.  I thought having Damar brought into the locker and into a suite during the Bengals playoff game backfired on the team.  And I think having Damien Harris injured earlier this season and carted off hit them hard and carried over into the following week.

 

I don't know how the coaches get the team over this.  I think this may be one area where McDermott's coaching style of building a family where the players get to know about each other's backgrounds and lives and where he tries also to get to know the players as people and make it clear he's concerned about them and cares about them as people, may work against him a bit vs. a coach who keeps his distance and just chews ass.  And I think McDermott gets a bit overloaded on weeks like this, where he's trying to be HC, DC, and keep an open door for any concerns.

Yeah, the Bengals were there too, but Damar isn't THEIR teammate and brother, and they were shortly afterwards able to get fired up to a froth by the idea of how unfair the league's solution was to them.  Maybe there's a lesson there, in that I'm sure the coaches played their part in "selling" that idea and frothing them up.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Beck Water

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

One of the notes I have from the Cincy game is that the Bills‘s defense didn’t actually start putting the clamps down on the Bengals offense after their first two touchdown drives. What actually happened is the Bengals started committing dumb penalties and killing their own drives.

 

after the two touchdown drives to open the game by the Bengals offense, their next two possessions were both ended on penalties. One possession, I believe, even had multiple offenses penalties that forced them to punt.

 

so in the first half, the Bengals offense scored three touchdowns on five possessions, and in reality the only reason they didn’t score points on all five possessions was due to them shooting themselves in the foot.

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

One of the notes I have from the Cincy game is that the Bills‘s defense didn’t actually start putting the clamps down on the Bengals offense after their first two touchdown drives. What actually happened is the Bengals started committing dumb penalties and killing their own drives.

 

after the two touchdown drives to open the game by the Bengals offense, their next two possessions were both ended on penalties. One possession, I believe, even had multiple offenses penalties that forced them to punt.

 

so in the first half, the Bengals offense scored three touchdowns on five possessions, and in reality the only reason they didn’t score points on all five possessions was due to them shooting themselves in the foot.

 

Yep. After Cincy's 2nd possession I sent my buddy a text saying "McD has no answers. Best we can hope for is Bengals to stop themselves."

 

And then we got lucky on the next 2 possessions as they did exactly that.

 

The only real play our Defense made was when Joseph stuffed Burrow on 2nd and 1. And that was just the player doing it himself. Then the wheels came off for the Bengals and they ended up in 3rd and 15 and 4th and 20. All self-inflicted as we just held on for dear life.

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[HoofHearted]

34 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sounds like a coaching issue, yes? We talk a lot about player execution versus coaching on here, but it seems to me that the former is following from the latter. I don't believe, for example, that a seasoned veteran like Micah Hyde would be making errors like that on his own if he was being prepared the right way. Similarly I don't believe Josh Allen would take a 1v1 deep shot to Deonte Harty if he was being prepared the right away. I think on both sides of the ball there is a big lack of detail from the coaching, and a lack of understanding of each player's strengths/weaknesses, and this is leading to many of these errors that we attribute solely to player execution.

 

The eye discipline on zone blitzes, yes. The 1v1 from Allen, no. That's just him playing within the scheme and taking the match-up he likes. In McDermott's defense too you can clearly see on film there has been an emphasis on details since he took over. Footwork and eyes have been much improved - you can really see the difference when the back-ups come in.

[HoofHearted]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Thanks for this.  What’s frustrating to me about what you’re describing is that on both sides of the ball, for the most part (excepting Torrence, Kincaid, Dorian), these are players who have been playing in these schemes for quite awhile now.  It seems like they are not practicing the right way.  You’re describing post-snap execution errors not schematic issues.  Are they simply not preparing enough?

I don't think it's a preparation issue. I'll put it this way - it's hard to pre-determine human reactions. What I mean by that is individual player movements post-snap will not look the same every time they do something - there will be variance simply because those guys are human too. So for example - from a pre-snap look a player could have a preconceived idea of what coverage a team is playing. However, if post-snap the defender is slow to react or diagnose what is going on that will delay our receivers post-snap processing which can then throw off the timing of a concept. It's not that our guys are doing the wrong things all the time. More often it's timings that are thrown off.

[HoofHearted]

2 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

Thank you for the write up, this is fascinating stuff and really helps me understand what’s going on.

 

For such a complex offense, it sure does look vanilla though. Maybe that’s why some guys can’t get on the field or are invisible when they do, they don’t have the head for it.

 

Seems to me the burden is on the players to figure out the coverage pre snap, then adjust their routes post snap using 1-4 options depending on where they are when they hit their decision point, then be on the same page with Josh at that decision point. Yikes! Takes a lot of the burden off Dorsey to outsmart the DC. Instead, he has such a complex offense with man/zone beaters built in to most plays that he can say “Hey, if you guys just did these 5 things correctly pre and post snap the play would have been a success”. That’s a lot to ask on every play especially when the explosive plays are taken away and we have to march down the field.

 

 

To your first point - that's exactly what you want. When you watch a game and without understanding what is happening our offense looks extremely vanilla. That's what makes it so hard to defend, because if you come into the game thinking I just need to stop these however many route concepts and then you go out to stop those you won't even see those routes because they'll be converted to something different. Now obviously this isn't the case on every concept, but we do have quite a few that are.

 

It's definitely not as complicated as it sounds. In the simplest form it's run to where the defenders aren't. Is it more to handle mentally than just a pre-determined concept, sure, but from my experience players love it because it gives them the opportunity to be open every time.

1 hour ago, Beast said:

I like what you said about we aren’t fast as an offense. That is so true and it seems we do nothing to attempt to take advantage of the speed we do have.

 

For instance, it seems we almost always have Cook slip out of the backfield and sit underneath. I have no issue with this as it is a nice 5-8 yard gain as coverage from all angles quickly converge. The point being Cook is stationary when he catches the ball. 

 

Cook is a very fast player. I don’t recall ever seeing him deployed on a wheel route that he may actually be able to just use flat out speed to beat defenders for a big play. I’m not trying to compare era’s but Thurman Thomas was used on these routes very successfully and though Thurman was a better receiving threat than Cook is, Cook is faster than Thurman was. I’d love to see the Bills at least try this. And not ***** can it if it doesn’t work the first time. Give the defense something else to think about.

 

And I won’t even get into the way Harty is not being used.

 

 

 

Cook is used on wheels every time we run mesh, and is the first read on that concept the majority of the time. We've also split him out when we go empty to try and get him the ball in the open field. Can they do more of it, certainly, but it's definitely been done to some degree.

[RunTheBall]

27 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

To your first point - that's exactly what you want. When you watch a game and without understanding what is happening our offense looks extremely vanilla. That's what makes it so hard to defend, because if you come into the game thinking I just need to stop these however many route concepts and then you go out to stop those you won't even see those routes because they'll be converted to something different. Now obviously this isn't the case on every concept, but we do have quite a few that are.

Now that is something I had never considered - that looking vanilla is something you want it to look like to an armchair coach/GM like myself. Makes sense given there are multiply post snap reads/options that can be implemented on each play.

 

Unfortunately, you are shifting my opinion to this is more of a player execution issue than a pure Dorsey issue (although I’m sure it’s a mix of both).  Damn, I really like when I can hate on one guy for all our problems. Ahh well… hahah

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, RunTheBall said:

Now that is something I had never considered - that looking vanilla is something you want it to look like to an armchair coach/GM like myself. Makes sense given there are multiply post snap reads/options that can be implemented on each play.

 

Unfortunately, you are shifting my opinion to this is more of a player execution issue than a pure Dorsey issue (although I’m sure it’s a mix of both).  Damn, I really like when I can hate on one guy for all our problems. Ahh well… hahah

I think player execution isn't even the real issue tbh

 

imo we lack offensive players w elite physical traits. OP mentioned it and I have been saying it since week 3 or so that Diggs looks to have lost a half step. The rest of the skill players outside Allen are not physically imposing so scheme has to win too often.

[DrDawkinstein]

34 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

To your first point - that's exactly what you want. When you watch a game and without understanding what is happening our offense looks extremely vanilla. That's what makes it so hard to defend, because if you come into the game thinking I just need to stop these however many route concepts and then you go out to stop those you won't even see those routes because they'll be converted to something different. Now obviously this isn't the case on every concept, but we do have quite a few that are.

 

It's definitely not as complicated as it sounds. In the simplest form it's run to where the defenders aren't. Is it more to handle mentally than just a pre-determined concept, sure, but from my experience players love it because it gives them the opportunity to be open every time.

 

1 minute ago, RunTheBall said:

Now that is something I had never considered - that looking vanilla is something you want it to look like to an armchair coach/GM like myself. Makes sense given there are multiply post snap reads/options that can be implemented on each play.

 

Unfortunately, you are shifting my opinion to this is more of a player execution issue than a pure Dorsey issue (although I’m sure it’s a mix of both).  Damn, I really like when I can hate on one guy for all our problems. Ahh well… hahah

 

I believe a knock on Dorsey is that he isnt building more out of those same looks.

 

Sure, the idea is to come out in the same look over and over, and once the Defense thinks they know what we are going to do then do something unexpected. But it doesnt seem like we ever get to that second phase of the unexpected.

 

We come out in the same vanilla look and run the same concepts over and over.

 

And I also believe it is to the point that smart Defenses (like Cincy) know what our reads and routes are, and bait Josh into making certain low percentage throws based on giving him certain pre-snap looks. And there is nothing coming from Dorsey to adjust that.

[HoofHearted]

10 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

Now that is something I had never considered - that looking vanilla is something you want it to look like to an armchair coach/GM like myself. Makes sense given there are multiply post snap reads/options that can be implemented on each play.

 

Unfortunately, you are shifting my opinion to this is more of a player execution issue than a pure Dorsey issue (although I’m sure it’s a mix of both).  Damn, I really like when I can hate on one guy for all our problems. Ahh well… hahah

It's definitely a mixture of both. We've seen way more man coverage this year than I can remember us seeing in the past and a lot of that has to do with our scheme. The route conversion stuff gets nullified if you don't have a zone defender you can make wrong every snap. I don't think we've done a great job in man coverage from a scheme standpoint from Dorsey's end, but also an execution standpoint from the player side. We're doing a lot of "win your 1v1" instead of scheming guys open using crossers to run away from coverage or using rubs to get guys separation. 

[Beast]

1 hour ago, HoofHearted said:

To your first point - that's exactly what you want. When you watch a game and without understanding what is happening our offense looks extremely vanilla. That's what makes it so hard to defend, because if you come into the game thinking I just need to stop these however many route concepts and then you go out to stop those you won't even see those routes because they'll be converted to something different. Now obviously this isn't the case on every concept, but we do have quite a few that are.

 

It's definitely not as complicated as it sounds. In the simplest form it's run to where the defenders aren't. Is it more to handle mentally than just a pre-determined concept, sure, but from my experience players love it because it gives them the opportunity to be open every time.

Cook is used on wheels every time we run mesh, and is the first read on that concept the majority of the time. We've also split him out when we go empty to try and get him the ball in the open field. Can they do more of it, certainly, but it's definitely been done to some degree.

OK, thanks for that. I don’t have all 22 access or anything like that.

 

Is he getting separation? Is there a reason you feel they aren’t going to him at all? Covered well?

Edited November 10, 2023 by Beast

[HoofHearted]

5 minutes ago, Beast said:

OK, thanks for ghat. I don’t have all 22 access or anything like that.

 

Is he getting separation? Is there a reason you feel they aren’t going to him at all? Covered well?

I dunno, he's been open often on the wheel and Josh just looks him off. It's frustrating at times.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

45 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think player execution isn't even the real issue tbh

 

imo we lack offensive players w elite physical traits. OP mentioned it and I have been saying it since week 3 or so that Diggs looks to have lost a half step. The rest of the skill players outside Allen are not physically imposing so scheme has to win too often.

This is where I'm at. 

 

Hoof Hearted is talking about running to where the defenders aren't. 

 

Who is capable of doing that on this offense? 

 

I think Diggs looks as good as he's ever been. I haven't noticed a step loss. He's sudden, he's shifty, he's precise, he catches everything, and has just enough speed (4.45-4.49ish) to get behind people. Maybe the advanced metrics would show that he used to average a bit more separation, somebody posted he's at ~2.65 yards this year. 

 

But back to the point, is it any wonder that the Bills select a consensus 1st Rounder and in 6-games he's passed everyone else and is now the #2 option in this offense? 

 

I think the All-22, analysis, has shown Allen is turning down the hot reads and check downs sometimes, he's not getting the ball to Cook enough, but even Hoof Hearted and Chris Simms and I just heard Greg Cosell say it as well - this is not a very fast/talented offense. 

 

Could Allen have thrown to the middle of the field more and let Harty run away from Awozie on the coverage? Yes.  

 

But I do think there is a mismatch in the way our QB wants to play and the personnel they've handed him. I get the point that NFL defenses have really made it harder to get deep since Mahomes exploded onto the scene in 2018, but I'm sorry, there hasn't been much investment at WR in Allen's tenure here.

 

Last year the bottom 5 of the WR room was: Jamison Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie, Jake Kumerow, Cole Beasley, John Brown. I'm mean Allen got 35 TDs out of that group with Diggs, Davis and Knox. 

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

I dunno, he's been open often on the wheel and Josh just looks him off. It's frustrating at times.

 

It seemed like Josh was hitting Cook immediately in those week 2 and 3 games when our Offense was clicking. Then he gets away from it because... reasons....

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This is where I'm at. 

 

Hoof Hearted is talking about running to where the defenders aren't. 

 

Who is capable of doing that on this offense? 

 

I think Diggs looks as good as he's ever been. I haven't noticed a step loss. He's sudden, he's shifty, he's precise, he catches everything, and has just enough speed (4.45-4.49ish) to get behind people. Maybe the advanced metrics would show that he used to average a bit more separation, somebody posted he's at ~2.65 yards this year. 

 

But back to the point, is it any wonder that the Bills select a consensus 1st Rounder and in 6-games he's passed everyone else and is now the #2 option in this offense? 

 

I think the All-22, analysis, has shown Allen is turning down the hot reads and check downs sometimes, he's not getting the ball to Cook enough, but even Hoof Hearted and Chris Simms and I just heard Greg Cosell say it as well - this is not a very talented offense. 

 

Could Allen have thrown to the middle of the field more and let Harty run away from Awozie on the coverage? Yes.  

 

But I do think there is a mismatch in the way our QB wants to play and the personnel they've handed him. I get the point that NFL defenses have really made it harder to get deep since Mahomes exploded onto the scene in 2018, but I'm sorry, there hasn't been much investment at WR in Allen's tenure here.

 

Last year the bottom 5 of the WR room was: Jamison Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie, Jake Kumerow, Cole Beasley, John Brown. I'm mean Allen got 35 TDs out of that group with Diggs, Davis and Knox. 

 

 

 

I have been banging this drum for 3 years now

 

It's a mini miracle imo a collection of 3rd-5th rounders at skill positions on offense have generated as much production as we have

[Straight Hucklebuck]

To me, when you look at the players that are on the field all the time for the Bills, Cook is the next lever that could be pulled for more output in the pass game. He's out there all the time, and his routes are defined. 

 

You wouldn't have to manufacture touches for him in the same way you would with Deonte Harty seemingly. 

 

Because Harty either runs flat routes or go's. 

 

It's been the two attempted long balls (Jets, Bengals) and the successful one against the Jags. 

 

Otherwise it's been just dump offs towards the sidelines.

[HoofHearted]

17 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This is where I'm at. 

 

Hoof Hearted is talking about running to where the defenders aren't. 

 

Who is capable of doing that on this offense? 

 

I think Diggs looks as good as he's ever been. I haven't noticed a step loss. He's sudden, he's shifty, he's precise, he catches everything, and has just enough speed (4.45-4.49ish) to get behind people. Maybe the advanced metrics would show that he used to average a bit more separation, somebody posted he's at ~2.65 yards this year. 

 

But back to the point, is it any wonder that the Bills select a consensus 1st Rounder and in 6-games he's passed everyone else and is now the #2 option in this offense? 

 

I think the All-22, analysis, has shown Allen is turning down the hot reads and check downs sometimes, he's not getting the ball to Cook enough, but even Hoof Hearted and Chris Simms and I just heard Greg Cosell say it as well - this is not a very fast/talented offense. 

 

Could Allen have thrown to the middle of the field more and let Harty run away from Awozie on the coverage? Yes.  

 

But I do think there is a mismatch in the way our QB wants to play and the personnel they've handed him. I get the point that NFL defenses have really made it harder to get deep since Mahomes exploded onto the scene in 2018, but I'm sorry, there hasn't been much investment at WR in Allen's tenure here.

 

Last year the bottom 5 of the WR room was: Jamison Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie, Jake Kumerow, Cole Beasley, John Brown. I'm mean Allen got 35 TDs out of that group with Diggs, Davis and Knox. 

 

 

 

All of them are capable of getting separation on the conversion routes - that's the whole point of them. They are designed so that anyone (regardless of physical skill) has a chance to be open simply by running to green grass as opposed to into a coverage. That's why we've seen so much man this year. Teams have become savvy to it and aren't allowing us to run our conversion routes as often and we do not have the guys to beat man coverage consistently. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

22 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I have been banging this drum for 3 years now

 

It's a mini miracle imo a collection of 3rd-5th rounders at skill positions on offense have generated as much production as we have

 

Your WR investment:

 

2019

Cole Beasley, John Brown are FAs. Brown is 29. Beasley is 30.

No WRs Drafted

 

2020

Diggs is de-facto 1st Rounder

Gabe is a 4th rounder. 

Hodgins is a 6th rounder. 

 

2021

Emmanuel Sanders at FA. 34 years old. 1 year deal, retires. 

Marquez Stevenson is a 6th Rounder. 

 

2022

Jamison Crowder is a FA. 29 years old. 1 year deal, leaves team. 

Shakir is a 5th rounder from 2022. 

 

2023

Trent Sherfield is a FA. 27 years old. 1 year deal. 

Deonte Harty is a FA. 26 years old. 

Shorter is a 5th rounder. 

 

 

And we wonder where all the playmaking is. 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck