Notes from the Cinci Game

[billsfan_34]

We stunk…all I got for this team right now.

[HoofHearted]

19 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

2. I think the Bills need to break up Gabe's snap count. Honestly, he's getting 95% of snaps. You're telling me the entire offense goes belly-up because of his blocking? It's not working anyways, we're scoring 20 ppg in our last 5. So why can't he be put in a rotation with Sherfield and Harty? He can still be the primary outside, but we're a year and half into this Gabe is a full-time starter, and it's just inefficient trying to get him the ball. 

 

Allen throws to Diggs and Kincaid because it just works.

Gabe isn't a #1 - the expectations for him on this board are astronomical and I don't really understand why. Gabe is what he is - he is not a guy who will go out there and dominate a game because of his athletic ability. He is not overly fast and he's not twitchy enough to be a good route runner. However, he can be schemed open on 1v1 matchups via option routes which is what has happened when we've seen him have his success. When teams don't allow him to have those opportunities he's not a real factor in games, but he is pulling coverage which should be opening things up for other guys (and it has - Kincaid/Shakir have been the biggest benefactors the past few weeks). As Kincaid continues to develop teams will eventually start pulling coverage his way which will then open things back up for Davis to win his 1v1's. There's a rhyme and reason for why things are happening - you just have to know what you're looking for.

 

What I completely hate about Davis is how he catches the ball. It's so unorthodox and the big reason he drops so many balls.

[Jukester]

@HoofHearted, great insight. Thank you.

 

In your opinion, is offensive play design/play calling ok?  Is Josh seeing the progressions or are there plays to be had?
 

In other words, is it Dorsey, Josh, overall offensive execution, or a combination of things?

[boyst]

That flea flicker should have absolutely been schemed to the reverse man since they run man coverage so tight. 

[HoofHearted]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Also it seems like they are having repeated issues when Allen goes to the man coverage option he likes instead of following the progressions. I'm not blaming Allen, like you have said this is built into the offense. But I'm wondering if they should remove that option from the scheme entirely and stop relying on these guys to win 1v1s, because it just isn't happening frequently enough. Until we get better weapons, I don't think trust throws should be a major part of our arsenal.

It's a slippery slope. Allen has made a ton of big time plays by taking the 1v1 he likes as well. It's one of those "it is what it is" type of deals imo. I think we win more of those plays than we lose which ultimately is all you want.

 

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

On the OL, have you noticed a difference since the start of the year? Earlier there were metrics showing we were a top 5 OL in pass and run blocking, but in recent weeks I have noticed a major drop off there. I wonder if coaching is an issue here? Everybody appears to be playing worse as the season goes along. Our coaches misevaluated Wyatt Teller when they traded him away for nothing. It's been a huge issue for years now.

Really good defensive lines are hard to play. Defensive lines have become more and more athletic every year and so the separation in the mismatch gets wider each year. I don't think it's so much that we've been getting worse, but I think it's been more a shift in how defenses have been playing us as of late. We're seeing a lot more pressure than we did early on and we've played a bunch of really well coached front 7 units the past three weeks in New England, Tampa Bay, and Cinci. We put Dawkins on an island all night against one of the league better pass rushers - he's going to lose a few of those match-ups. Torrence is still young and things are happening fast - one extra step is the difference in a perfect pockets vs. a sack in this league. He's been mostly solid on 1v1, but movement has been his struggle and it mostly (from film) looks like it's just processing time. He's a half-step behind. He'll get there. 

 

The run game stuff this week was just the Bengals being really freaking good in the run game. Their backers are super impressive in how tight they fit things and how athletic they were. It forced our guys to have to wrap super tight at times and they're just not athletic enough to do it consistently.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Gabe isn't a #1 - the expectations for him on this board are astronomical and I don't really understand why. Gabe is what he is - he is not a guy who will go out there and dominate a game because of his athletic ability. He is not overly fast and he's not twitchy enough to be a good route runner. However, he can be schemed open on 1v1 matchups via option routes which is what has happened when we've seen him have his success. When teams don't allow him to have those opportunities he's not a real factor in games, but he is pulling coverage which should be opening things up for other guys (and it has - Kincaid/Shakir have been the biggest benefactors the past few weeks). As Kincaid continues to develop teams will eventually start pulling coverage his way which will then open things back up for Davis to win his 1v1's. There's a rhyme and reason for why things are happening - you just have to know what you're looking for.

 

What I completely hate about Davis is how he catches the ball. It's so unorthodox and the big reason he drops so many balls.

I'm not sitting here thinking a 4th Round WR who ran a 4.54 and had a 3 cone of 7.08 should be a physically dominant player. 

 

But when your GM goes out gives a 2-year, $9M deal to Harty and says - he can play outside or inside and he's been given 9 snaps in the last 2 games. 

 

Harty shows phone-booth ability on the flat route against New England, showed the same ability on his catch against Miami, why can't he get 2 balls thrown to him a game. 

 

Why can't Gabe get 70% of snaps, Harty 30%? 

 

The aggregate looks great with Gabe, but 5/9 games this year he's 40 yards and below. 

 

Kincaid's long this year is 22 yards, so he's getting more volume, but the routes aren't different. 

 

[HoofHearted]

20 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Thanks for the reading recommendation. I will for sure look into it! I understand the basics. That was a loose use of the word autonomy. Apologies. 

But I digress. Your eye seems much better than mine. Do you think this offense is getting lost in the amount of variables per play we seem to have compared to past seasons? 

I don't think so. The pass game is largely carry over from Daboll's system - and a lot of that came from his time at the college level at Alabama. He brought a bunch of schemes that have been run consistently at the college level to the NFL.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

It's a slippery slope. Allen has made a ton of big time plays by taking the 1v1 he likes as well. It's one of those "it is what it is" type of deals imo. I think we win more of those plays than we lose which ultimately is all you want.

 

Really good defensive lines are hard to play. Defensive lines have become more and more athletic every year and so the separation in the mismatch gets wider each year. I don't think it's so much that we've been getting worse, but I think it's been more a shift in how defenses have been playing us as of late. We're seeing a lot more pressure than we did early on and we've played a bunch of really well coached front 7 units the past three weeks in New England, Tampa Bay, and Cinci. We put Dawkins on an island all night against one of the league better pass rushers - he's going to lose a few of those match-ups. Torrence is still young and things are happening fast - one extra step is the difference in a perfect pockets vs. a sack in this league. He's been mostly solid on 1v1, but movement has been his struggle and it mostly (from film) looks like it's just processing time. He's a half-step behind. He'll get there. 

 

The run game stuff this week was just the Bengals being really freaking good in the run game. Their backers are super impressive in how tight they fit things and how athletic they were. It forced our guys to have to wrap super tight at times and they're just not athletic enough to do it consistently.

Cook got 6 runs. 

 

Murray got 2 runs. 

 

The rest was Allen. 

[HoofHearted]

14 minutes ago, Jukester said:

@HoofHearted, great insight. Thank you.

 

In your opinion, is offensive play design/play calling ok?  Is Josh seeing the progressions or are there plays to be had?
 

In other words, is it Dorsey, Josh, overall offensive execution, or a combination of things?

All of the above at different times throughout the game. Here's what I mean:

 

Drive 1: Dorsey did a fantastic job with a Change of Strength shift then motion to scheme Diggs wide open in the flat for a big gainer

Drive 2: Dorsey motions across the formation and pulls the overhang into the box vs the split zone run concept we run and it gets shut down

Drive 2: Dawkins whiffs a block on a well designed pin and pull concept that would have gone for at least 10 had he maintained the down block

Drive 2: Dorsey schemes Diggs 1v1 on a backer using a short motion and Diggs runs an in-breaking route vs inside leverage instead of running the out-breaking route he should have (and Josh anticipated him running)

Drive 2: Vertical pass concepts are covered - Allen doesn't take the check-down which probably would have gotten us into a forth and short in "go for it" territory

Drive 3: Allen under throws a hole shot and gets intercepted

Drive 4: Morse whiffs a block on outside zone that would have been a solid gainer had he made it

Drive 5: Allen does a really good job with eye manipulation to uncover Kincaid on a decent gain

Drive 5: Allen takes the 1v1 option to Davis and isn't on the same page and throws the vertical instead of playing the field concepts which were also man beaters vs man coverage

Drive 6: Allen mis-reads an RPO that should have been a give and ends up dirting the ball because there wasn't anything there

Drive 6: Ran the same RPO off Dart action that we ran at the beginning of the game and it's executed perfectly again

Drive 6: Vertical pass game is covered and Allen doesn't take the checkdown

Drive 6: Torrence trips on a slip screen that would have otherwise been a big gainer

Drive 7: Man coverage and Allen looks to Diggs/Kincaid side instead of going to his man beater side - had Shakir open on a crack/slant

Drive 8: Stack receivers too tight to formation on the Dart RPO which pulls overhang defender into the box when Josh correctly gives the ball - Brown also whiffed his block.

Drive 8: Kincaid fumble

Drive 9: We finally used Tight Ends to block on the perimeter screen game!!!

 

It's a mixed bag of everything. There were some really good things from Dorsey from a scheme and play calling perspective - there were also some head scratchers. Josh did some really good things, but also did some boneheaded things. Overall execution at times was really good and others really bad.

[Bob Jones]

Thanks for diving deep in to the Bills problems. For those who maybe are a bit confused about the OP’s post here, I’ll simplify it: Many players on the Bills roster are either old, slow, or dumb, or some combination of all three, thus their execution very often is poor. 😉

Edited November 9, 2023 by Bob Jones

[HoofHearted]

23 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I'm not sitting here thinking a 4th Round WR who ran a 4.54 and had a 3 cone of 7.08 should be a physically dominant player. 

 

But when your GM goes out gives a 2-year, $9M deal to Harty and says - he can play outside or inside and he's been given 9 snaps in the last 2 games. 

 

Harty shows phone-booth ability on the flat route against New England, showed the same ability on his catch against Miami, why can't he get 2 balls thrown to him a game. 

 

Why can't Gabe get 70% of snaps, Harty 30%? 

 

The aggregate looks great with Gabe, but 5/9 games this year he's 40 yards and below. 

 

Kincaid's long this year is 22 yards, so he's getting more volume, but the routes aren't different. 

 

I'm not in the building - I can't answer this. You're right though - he is electric with the ball in his hands in open space. If it's a matter of him struggling to learn the scheme (pure speculation on my part) you'd think they'd at least be able to use him in the screen game. They've used him as an outside receiver deep ball threat and he's looked less than impressive in that role, but they do need to find a way to get him the ball in space.

 

Not sure what you're getting at with the Kincaid comment.

26 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Cook got 6 runs. 

 

Murray got 2 runs. 

 

The rest was Allen. 

Again, not sure what you're getting at here.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

Defensively

The Bad

 - Underneath defenders repeatedly caught staring at QBs eyes instead of working to a man in zone coverage (Poyer, Dodson, D. Williams, Shaq)

 - Poor path by Floyd on the naked bootleg allowed Borrow time to get the play off clean

 - Dodson fit incorrectly multiple times

 - Played the Stalk & Go incorrectly twice

 - Add-ons HAVE to rush through their coverage assignment otherwise that touchdown is exactly what happens

 - Micah caught on the deep ball to Chase that went over top of Dane - people matter!

 - Poor rush integrity a couple times

 - Miscommunication multiple times - Dorian busted a coverage on motion and then later him and Douglas busted coverage to the flat (each thought the other had the flat - both hesitate towards it - Williams eventually takes it, but was too late)

 - Still don't have RZ man coverages in - have to be able to switch off routes in man down there

 

Overall Thoughts

 - Thought we fit the run really well for the most part all night

 - Found it interesting we played with a Crash 4 and Wide 9 to the open side all night (curious if that's going to be a staple going forward or just a game plan deal based on the Bengals Tackles)

 - We're trying to disguise our Hole coverage, but we're tipping it with our Linebacker alignment. Might as well just line up in it since we're not fooling anyone.

 - Not sure how to feel about us moving our DEs inside and DT out whenever we're running games (we don't do it every time). On one hand it puts our athletes in positions to make plays, but on the other it tips what we're doing (we've done this since McDermott has been here). Noticed it with Floyd line up as a 3tech running a Pirate game

 - Norman calling for a flag instead of finishing the play on the final run of the game - it's inexcusable

 

Offensively

The Bad

 - Bengals DL dominated the LoS all night. Multiple, just flat out, whiffs on blocks in the run game that would have gone for good gains

 - Allen holding the ball too long - take the checkdown and give yourself a chance (did better with this as the game went on)

 - Tex game gave us trouble all night on the right side of our line

 - Cook tipped the slip screen that Torrence fell on with his alignment

 - Dawkins got beat multiple times because he overset

 - We're missing some good potential gains when Allen is choosing his 1v1 backside over working the concept side

 

Overall Thoughts

 - Thought we did some good things with shifts and motions to scheme guys open - would like to see more of that

 - Allen did a good job with his eyes multiple times pulling defenders where he wanted them and then throwing off of it

 - Shakir continues to impress underneath with the option package that Beasley used to run for us

 - Allen working Diggs/Kincaid side every time we're running mirrored concepts (Again, people matter so it's good from that standpoint, but it's also a tendency)

 - Q Counter looked really good. I miss the QB run game. It puts so much stress on a defense, but I understand why we've gotten away from it.

 - Like the creativity of the reverse flea flicker in that shot area. Unfortunately they were in man so there was no play to be had. Would have been nice if it would have just checked to the reverse vs man coverage because it was there.

 - Davis is what he is - he's not a route runner - he doesn't have twitch. He's phenomenal in the run game for the most part and is versatile in that aspect. Would be nice to play into that more. Play him more condensed - get him matched up on backers within the Hook/Curl area and I think he could excel there (showed some of this vs. the Bucs with our condensed sets)

 - We are not fast as an offense - Diggs even looked slow on that one he got out on

 

Great write up, thanks for the time to do that and the replies.  Everything you are saying here about Gabe and in your replies is exactly where my frustration have been with him and why I have been beating the drum for Shakir since the offseason to be more involved in this offense and passing game.  And its been great seeing Shakir really come through with the opportunities he has been getting since Knox has been out.  

 

I don't like or trust Dorsey, and my big concern is that when Knox is back is he going to take Shakir off the field more again to get both Knox and Kincaid on it at the same time.  I really hope not, Shakir IMHO is showing that the offense runs better with him out there and I really want to see his snaps increase rather than decrease.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

25 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

I'm not in the building - I can't answer this. You're right though - he is electric with the ball in his hands in open space. If it's a matter of him struggling to learn the scheme (pure speculation on my part) you'd think they'd at least be able to use him in the screen game. They've used him as an outside receiver deep ball threat and he's looked less than impressive in that role, but they do need to find a way to get him the ball in space.

 

Not sure what you're getting at with the Kincaid comment.

 

Again, not sure what you're getting at here.

Kincaid comment was in reference Davis pulling coverage away. His long on the year is 22 yards, it's not like they're bombs away with him. He's catching more of the type of patterns he was in his first game against the Jets. 

 

The other comment on the run game is in reference to the Bills being dominated in the run game by the Bengals defensive line. When I watched that game, I felt like they ditched the run early and rightfully so. 

 

So when I looked it up, Cook only had 6 carries, and Murray had just the two conversions later in the game. The Bills running backs outgained the Bengals rushing offense including Burrow without any of Allen's carries. So while some plays looked bad, the Bengals stuffing the run was a small part of the actual plays that were run. 

[HoofHearted]

8 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Kincaid comment was in reference Davis pulling coverage away. His long on the year is 22 yards, it's not like they're bombs away with him. He's catching more of the type of patterns he was in his first game against the Jets. 

I'm assuming your line of thinking is that because Davis is pulling coverage that Kincaid should be running deeper routes?

 

11 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The other comment on the run game is in reference to the Bills being dominated in the run game by the Bengals defensive line. When I watched that game, I felt like they ditched the run early and rightfully so. 

 

So when I looked it up, Cook only had 6 carries, and Murray had just the two conversions later in the game. The Bills running backs outgained the Bengals rushing offense including Burrow without any of Allen's carries. So while some plays looked bad, the Bengals stuffing the run was a small part of the actual plays that were run. 

Right, the response was to a question posed about the OL and their execution in both the run and the pass. It wasn't about the volume of runs - just that they didn't execute well when called upon. So I'm still not clear why you're bringing up number of carries.

[Jukester]

2 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

All of the above at different times throughout the game. Here's what I mean:

 

Drive 1: Dorsey did a fantastic job with a Change of Strength shift then motion to scheme Diggs wide open in the flat for a big gainer

Drive 2….

Yes, that’s what I suspected.
 

Such a refreshing thread to look at the issues objectively with facts and analysis instead of the “fire everybody and jump off the cliff” posts.

 

Appreciate the work you put into this.

[stuvian]

Rushing 5 and 6 defenders and getting no pressure is failure. 

[HoofHearted]

14 hours ago, stuvian said:

Rushing 5 and 6 defenders and getting no pressure is failure. 

There’s no doubt about it, and it’s on both ends. We’re not hitting home sometimes but also the coverage isn’t allowing us to hit home at other times. It’s frustrating to continually see us playing with zone eyes on these zone blitzes - man match and give your rush a chance.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

19 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

Defensively

The Bad

 - Underneath defenders repeatedly caught staring at QBs eyes instead of working to a man in zone coverage (Poyer, Dodson, D. Williams, Shaq)

 - Poor path by Floyd on the naked bootleg allowed Borrow time to get the play off clean

 - Dodson fit incorrectly multiple times

 - Played the Stalk & Go incorrectly twice

 - Add-ons HAVE to rush through their coverage assignment otherwise that touchdown is exactly what happens

 - Micah caught on the deep ball to Chase that went over top of Dane - people matter!

 - Poor rush integrity a couple times

 - Miscommunication multiple times - Dorian busted a coverage on motion and then later him and Douglas busted coverage to the flat (each thought the other had the flat - both hesitate towards it - Williams eventually takes it, but was too late)

 - Still don't have RZ man coverages in - have to be able to switch off routes in man down there

 

Overall Thoughts

 - Thought we fit the run really well for the most part all night

 - Found it interesting we played with a Crash 4 and Wide 9 to the open side all night (curious if that's going to be a staple going forward or just a game plan deal based on the Bengals Tackles)

 - We're trying to disguise our Hole coverage, but we're tipping it with our Linebacker alignment. Might as well just line up in it since we're not fooling anyone.

 - Not sure how to feel about us moving our DEs inside and DT out whenever we're running games (we don't do it every time). On one hand it puts our athletes in positions to make plays, but on the other it tips what we're doing (we've done this since McDermott has been here). Noticed it with Floyd line up as a 3tech running a Pirate game

 - Norman calling for a flag instead of finishing the play on the final run of the game - it's inexcusable

 

Offensively

The Bad

 - Bengals DL dominated the LoS all night. Multiple, just flat out, whiffs on blocks in the run game that would have gone for good gains

 - Allen holding the ball too long - take the checkdown and give yourself a chance (did better with this as the game went on)

 - Tex game gave us trouble all night on the right side of our line

 - Cook tipped the slip screen that Torrence fell on with his alignment

 - Dawkins got beat multiple times because he overset

 - We're missing some good potential gains when Allen is choosing his 1v1 backside over working the concept side

 

Overall Thoughts

 - Thought we did some good things with shifts and motions to scheme guys open - would like to see more of that

 - Allen did a good job with his eyes multiple times pulling defenders where he wanted them and then throwing off of it

 - Shakir continues to impress underneath with the option package that Beasley used to run for us

 - Allen working Diggs/Kincaid side every time we're running mirrored concepts (Again, people matter so it's good from that standpoint, but it's also a tendency)

 - Q Counter looked really good. I miss the QB run game. It puts so much stress on a defense, but I understand why we've gotten away from it.

 - Like the creativity of the reverse flea flicker in that shot area. Unfortunately they were in man so there was no play to be had. Would have been nice if it would have just checked to the reverse vs man coverage because it was there.

 - Davis is what he is - he's not a route runner - he doesn't have twitch. He's phenomenal in the run game for the most part and is versatile in that aspect. Would be nice to play into that more. Play him more condensed - get him matched up on backers within the Hook/Curl area and I think he could excel there (showed some of this vs. the Bucs with our condensed sets)

 - We are not fast as an offense - Diggs even looked slow on that one he got out on

this is terrific. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Thanks for this.  What’s frustrating to me about what you’re describing is that on both sides of the ball, for the most part (excepting Torrence, Kincaid, Dorian), these are players who have been playing in these schemes for quite awhile now.  It seems like they are not practicing the right way.  You’re describing post-snap execution errors not schematic issues.  Are they simply not preparing enough?

[RunTheBall]

Thank you for the write up, this is fascinating stuff and really helps me understand what’s going on.

 

For such a complex offense, it sure does look vanilla though. Maybe that’s why some guys can’t get on the field or are invisible when they do, they don’t have the head for it.

 

Seems to me the burden is on the players to figure out the coverage pre snap, then adjust their routes post snap using 1-4 options depending on where they are when they hit their decision point, then be on the same page with Josh at that decision point. Yikes! Takes a lot of the burden off Dorsey to outsmart the DC. Instead, he has such a complex offense with man/zone beaters built in to most plays that he can say “Hey, if you guys just did these 5 things correctly pre and post snap the play would have been a success”. That’s a lot to ask on every play especially when the explosive plays are taken away and we have to march down the field.