The Rise of the Two High Shell & Its Impact on the Bills

[finn]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:56 AM, Gregg said:

 

Basically, be the Baltimore Ravens.

And Browns. 

On 11/9/2023 at 5:04 PM, FrenchConnection said:

I've watched a lot of football this year, and there are a lot fewer deep passing plays than a few years ago. It feels like when the Devils' Neutral Zone Trap was adopted by all the teams in the NHL. I understand it from a defensive standpoint, but it takes all the fun out of the game.

More rules changes coming maybe? 

[Matt_In_NH]

On 11/9/2023 at 8:17 PM, Scott7975 said:

There is no rise of 2 high shell.  This defense has been tried against Josh for years.  Going back to Daboll.  Its just effective now because Dorsey is attacking it differently.  Josh used to torch this defense.

I agree the two high shell is how teams have attacked QB's like Allen.  I remember specifically after the Bills lost to the Jags 9-6 Allen being asked "what were they doing".  His response was something like, same as all teams, two high shell.    What happened after that?  Josh Allen started running, look at his attempts and yards by week in 2021 after the Jags game...that is how they started beating teams, running it.   So back to the OP, he is correct you need to run the ball effectively enough.   The Bills need to be consistent and effective with running and shorter passes to get teams out of this.

 

And back to Dorsey vs Dabol....in 2021 (Dabol's last year)  the Bills had scores of 6, 10, 15 and 16 that season....that s 25% of games they scored 16 or less.  Everyone wanted Dabol fired.    What changed was the late season run and two great offensive performances in the playoffs and now most people forget what happened under Dabol.

[Low Positive]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I agree the two high shell is how teams have attacked QB's like Allen.  I remember specifically after the Bills lost to the Jags 9-6 Allen being asked "what were they doing".  His response was something like, same as all teams, two high shell.    What happened after that?  Josh Allen started running, look at his attempts and yards by week in 2021 after the Jags game...that is how they started beating teams, running it.   So back to the OP, he is correct you need to run the ball effectively enough.   The Bills need to be consistent and effective with running and shorter passes to get teams out of this.

 

And back to Dorsey vs Dabol....in 2021 (Dabol's last year)  the Bills had scores of 6, 10, 15 and 16 that season....that s 25% of games they scored 16 or less.  Everyone wanted Dabol fired.    What changed was the late season run and two great offensive performances in the playoffs and now most people forget what happened under Dabol.

Even that late season run had that game at home against the Falcons that was really bad. Remember this?

 

[Charles Romes]

I blame Jacques Lemaire 

[ProcessTruster]

On 11/9/2023 at 5:04 PM, FrenchConnection said:

I've watched a lot of football this year, and there are a lot fewer deep passing plays than a few years ago. It feels like when the Devils' Neutral Zone Trap was adopted by all the teams in the NHL. I understand it from a defensive standpoint, but it takes all the fun out of the game.

agreed.  Jacque Lemaire ruined the NHL product forever when he won a ton of the most boring games in hockey history in NJ with the neutral zone trap all those years.   The only way to watch the NHL now between trap and non trap teams is to hope the non trap team scores the first goal.  If the trap heavy team scores the first goal, immediately go watch some other game 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

So it’s becoming a zone defense league? 🤔 

[Buffalo716]

6 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

So it’s becoming a zone defense league? 🤔 

No team plays strictly man or zone... Most teams play both regularly or match coverages 

 

A conservative defense like quarters has historically slowed down potent QBs... While belichick patented his cover3 rip Liz in Cleveland to slow down Pitt... 

 

While a sticky man defense still has its place... A tight cover 1 press or cover 0 is at it's best in pure passing down... 3rd and long... 3rd and 9... Great time to send 6-7... Their is usually not enough time for the routes to develop 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Buffalo716

[C.Biscuit97]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:51 AM, BarleyNY said:

Everything is cyclical. The high flying, explosive offenses predicated on chunk pass plays have led to the re-emergence of defenses like Cover 2 (two high shell) and to a lesser extent Cover 4 (quarters). NFL schemes are complex, but generally those two coverages are poor against the run while Cover 1 and 3 are much better against it.

 

The upshot of the big uptick in Cover 2 is that offenses have been limited on deep shots and have gone even more to an underneath game than previously. Overall offensive efficiency is up, but scoring and yardage are down because offenses are taking smaller wins at the expense of explosive plays. I’ll have to find the stat, but one play over 20 yards on a drive increases the chances of scoring on that play dramatically.

 

The other thing C2 gives the defense is five players in underneath coverage. This is why it’s more popular than C4 right now. Defenses are taking more risks jumping routes, blitzing (2 high shell with 4  under), aggressive pass rushing, etc. Defensive coordinators know they’ll get carved up if they play passively so causing a turnover or other negative play is worth the risk of a big offensive play - especially if there are safeties over top to prevent a score. Once a team does get inside the red zone if a defense can tighten up and only allow a FG attempt, then that’s a win for the defense these days. 

 

So what does an offense have to do to get a defense out of C2? Two big things: 1) Effectively run the ball and 2) Run an efficient passing game with a QB (and receivers) who can make the correct reads quickly. 

 

That brings us to the Bills. This is why Kincaid is starting to kill it. He is an excellent route runner who uncovers quickly. It’s also why Gabe Davis isn’t getting many looks - he doesn’t uncover quickly. The lack of a dependable run game has been killing the Bills. If teams can stay in 2 high and stop our run game they don’t have much reason to get out of it and it makes life tough on our QB. Allen has not been bad, but seeing so much two high is an issue for him. He’s much better when he can take deep shots more often than he is quickly reading defenses and distributing the ball with pinpoint short and intermediate passes. 

 

We just saw a team that is made to handle this. Burrow and his WRs are the kind of players that will thrive against two high - with or without blitzes coming at him. It’s their game. As for the Bills, without a running game I think we are in for more of what we have seen so far this year. They can still be a good offense, but it won’t be great or explosive because teams will stay in 2 high. They absolutely have to find a way to get that run game moving. If they can’t get the run game going then they should probably try to find a WR on the team who is better at uncovering quickly than Davis and sub him in more. That will give Allen another quick option and stress defenses more. 

Good post. This happened to the Chiefs last year and people starting question in their offense fell off. But then Mahomes and Reid adjusted. 
 

also, I heard that Allen was 6th in qb rushing yards which is wild. We have neutered one of his greatest strengths.

5 hours ago, finn said:

And Browns. 

More rules changes coming maybe? 

Haha, yeah, I feel bad because the nfl never helps the offense!!!!

 

maybe when scrubs start passing for 4,000/ 5,000 yards, it might be time to balance things out. And smart coaches/ qbs will find ways to beat this as well.

 

tight end are cover 2 killers. 

[billieve420]

This video by Brett Kollmann pretty much shows problem that hasn’t been fixed in multiple seasons. Need to be able to run the ball to take some pressure off the QB. For some reason they continue to run the ball out of Shotgun despite it not being effective and when they have better success lining up behind center. In addition to being so predictable team has no shot despite having good EPA rating. So question is why are they not able to succeed with Josh under center more where you can incorporate more play action to keep teams guessing.
 

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by billieve420

[EmotionallyUnstable]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

No team plays strictly man or zone... Most teams have play both regularly 

 

A conservative defense like quarters has historically slowed down potent QBs... While belichick patented his cover3 rip Liz in Cleveland to slow down Pitt... 

 

While a sticky man defense still has its place... A tight cover 1 press or cover 0 is at it's best in pure passing down... 3rd and long... 3rd and 9... Great time to send 7... Their is usually not enough time for the routes to develop 

Unkess you’re buffalo and the 5/6 man pressures aren’t getting there😭

[RunTheBall]

Been saying this all year, McDorsey neutered Josh running and it killed this offense and his mojo. 

 

When you have a mustang, you have to let him run. 

 

That and a better running scheme than shotgun draws. I’d like to see them come out with a fullback and beat the hell out of Denver with some power. Then open it up a little but set the stage early that we are going to be physical.

 

Denver sucks against the run. If we can’t run on this team we can’t run on anyone. 

 

Time for this team to get pissed and start bullying other teams on O instead of the other way around.

[mannc]

On 11/9/2023 at 2:04 PM, FrenchConnection said:

I've watched a lot of football this year, and there are a lot fewer deep passing plays than a few years ago. It feels like when the Devils' Neutral Zone Trap was adopted by all the teams in the NHL. I understand it from a defensive standpoint, but it takes all the fun out of the game.

Points are way down the last two years and this is a big reason, along with far fewer DPI, defensive holding and illegal contact penalties.  I can't remember a year when there were so many dominant defenses, especially in the AFC...Jags, Jets, Browns, Ravens, Steelers, hell, even the Chiefs...tough sledding for offenses these days, unless you happen to be playing the Bills.  

Edited November 11, 2023 by mannc

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I agree the two high shell is how teams have attacked QB's like Allen.  I remember specifically after the Bills lost to the Jags 9-6 Allen being asked "what were they doing".  His response was something like, same as all teams, two high shell.    What happened after that?  Josh Allen started running, look at his attempts and yards by week in 2021 after the Jags game...that is how they started beating teams, running it.   So back to the OP, he is correct you need to run the ball effectively enough.   The Bills need to be consistent and effective with running and shorter passes to get teams out of this.

 

And back to Dorsey vs Dabol....in 2021 (Dabol's last year)  the Bills had scores of 6, 10, 15 and 16 that season....that s 25% of games they scored 16 or less.  Everyone wanted Dabol fired.    What changed was the late season run and two great offensive performances in the playoffs and now most people forget what happened under Dabol.

 

You are right about a bunch of people with pitchforks out for Daboll.  I had my pitchfork out but not because of the games you list.  The difference with those games is not just that we had a late game stretch, its that those games were surrounded by blowouts.  It wasn't a 5 game or even 4 game stretch of mediocre football. 

 

For instance we opened with scoring 16 points in a loss and then proceeded to blow 4 teams out which included beating the chiefs.  Then we lost a tight high scoring game against the Titans, beat Miami by 15, loss to the Jags scoring 6 points.  Then we blew out the Jets, had a rare loss being blown out by the Colts.  Then we blew out the Saints, lost to the Pats in hurricane scoring 10 points, lost a close one to the Bucs in a high scoring game.  After that we blew everyone out until we lost in the playoffs.

 

This year, we are basically on a 5 game stretch of average to bad offense and it just looks clunky and difficult to move the ball.  2021 was a completely different story.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Scott7975

[Matt_In_NH]

19 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

You are right about a bunch of people with pitchforks out for Daboll.  I had my pitchfork out but not because of the games you list.  The difference with those games is not just that we had a late game stretch, its that those games were surrounded by blowouts.  It wasn't a 5 game or even 4 game stretch of mediocre football. 

 

For instance we opened with scoring 16 points in a loss and then proceeded to blow 4 teams out which included beating the chiefs.  Then we lost a tight high scoring game against the Titans, beat Miami by 15, loss to the Jags scoring 6 points.  Then we blew out the Jets, had a rare loss being blown out by the Colts.  Then we blew out the Saints, lost to the Pats in hurricane scoring 10 points, lost a close one to the Bucs in a high scoring game.  After that we blew everyone out until we lost in the playoffs.

 

This year, we are basically on a 5 game stretch of average to bad offense and it just looks clunky and difficult to move the ball.  2021 was a completely different story.

I agree this 5 game stretch is different in that it is the longest stretch the offense has struggled at times.  I also think this group can turn it around, we will see if they do....

[Julio Hopkins]

15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

You are right about a bunch of people with pitchforks out for Daboll.  I had my pitchfork out but not because of the games you list.  The difference with those games is not just that we had a late game stretch, its that those games were surrounded by blowouts.  It wasn't a 5 game or even 4 game stretch of mediocre football. 

 

For instance we opened with scoring 16 points in a loss and then proceeded to blow 4 teams out which included beating the chiefs.  Then we lost a tight high scoring game against the Titans, beat Miami by 15, loss to the Jags scoring 6 points.  Then we blew out the Jets, had a rare loss being blown out by the Colts.  Then we blew out the Saints, lost to the Pats in hurricane scoring 10 points, lost a close one to the Bucs in a high scoring game.  After that we blew everyone out until we lost in the playoffs.

 

This year, we are basically on a 5 game stretch of average to bad offense and it just looks clunky and difficult to move the ball.  2021 was a completely different story.

 

Adding to this Daboll also had a worse offense throughout his tenure.  He didn't have Kincaid and his offensive line was (somehow) worse.  His running back group wasn't nearly as dynamic.  He was dealing with the growing pains associated with developing Josh Allen.  Are we seriously going to pretend that Cole Beasley was the difference maker? 

 

Not a chance.

 

Dorsey doesn't understand how to put together a game plan with flow that takes advantage of defenses.  He doesn't use motion enough, probably because he gets the play in INSANELY late.  He doesn't use play action enough especially after running the ball successfully.  There isn't any setup for future plays.  Dorsey doesn't make it easy on Allen (or anybody for that matter), he's completely reliant on him playing at his best every single play.  

[Scott7975]

20 minutes ago, Julio Hopkins said:

 

Adding to this Daboll also had a worse offense throughout his tenure.  He didn't have Kincaid and his offensive line was (somehow) worse.  His running back group wasn't nearly as dynamic.  He was dealing with the growing pains associated with developing Josh Allen.  Are we seriously going to pretend that Cole Beasley was the difference maker? 

 

Not a chance.

 

Dorsey doesn't understand how to put together a game plan with flow that takes advantage of defenses.  He doesn't use motion enough, probably because he gets the play in INSANELY late.  He doesn't use play action enough especially after running the ball successfully.  There isn't any setup for future plays.  Dorsey doesn't make it easy on Allen (or anybody for that matter), he's completely reliant on him playing at his best every single play.  

 

I agree somewhat but I disagree with prime Beasley.  I think he was a difference maker.  Old Beasley not so much.

 

30 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I agree this 5 game stretch is different in that it is the longest stretch the offense has struggled at times.  I also think this group can turn it around, we will see if they do....

 

I think they CAN turn it around.  Not sure they will but they can.  I dunno even what the answer is.  Mostly I think Josh needs to just get back to playing Josh football and the coaches need to let him.  I think the number one thing holding this offense back is Josh not running the football on instinct.  Half the time he tries to run now, he is so hesitant that it's too late.  This is what made our D hard to defend and open everything else up.  I think in the beginning it was coaches.  Maybe his shoulder is part of the reason of that too. He says its no problem but I think it is bothering him.

 

There just doesn't seem to be that dog in this team anymore.  Too business like attitude.  Not enough dog game attitude.  You could see that attitude change before camp even started.

[97bills]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:40 AM, BarleyNY said:

It does not need to be nearly to that degree. It just has to be an effective run game where we can make defenses chose between staying in two high and getting gashed with runs or getting into other defenses. 

 

 

I agree. If we can’t get the run game going with the RBs, then we probably have no choice but to use Allen more. 

The sad part is Buffalo hasn’t had a running game in 4 years