The Rise of the Two High Shell & Its Impact on the Bills

[Dr.Sack]

Josh definitely is effective against Cover 2 when he steps up in the pocket and runs for 1st downs until the defense has to put a spy on him, which ups up the gap between the safeties and the singular linebacker in pass coverage. That should be a win every time with Kincaid similar to how Kelce owned Milano for the TD game winner in the 13 seconds game. 

[HoofHearted]

10 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Everything is cyclical. The high flying, explosive offenses predicated on chunk pass plays have led to the re-emergence of defenses like Cover 2 (two high shell) and to a lesser extent Cover 4 (quarters). NFL schemes are complex, but generally those two coverages are poor against the run while Cover 1 and 3 are much better against it.

 

The upshot of the big uptick in Cover 2 is that offenses have been limited on deep shots and have gone even more to an underneath game than previously. Overall offensive efficiency is up, but scoring and yardage are down because offenses are taking smaller wins at the expense of explosive plays. I’ll have to find the stat, but one play over 20 yards on a drive increases the chances of scoring on that play dramatically.

 

The other thing C2 gives the defense is five players in underneath coverage. This is why it’s more popular than C4 right now. Defenses are taking more risks jumping routes, blitzing (2 high shell with 4  under), aggressive pass rushing, etc. Defensive coordinators know they’ll get carved up if they play passively so causing a turnover or other negative play is worth the risk of a big offensive play - especially if there are safeties over top to prevent a score. Once a team does get inside the red zone if a defense can tighten up and only allow a FG attempt, then that’s a win for the defense these days. 

 

So what does an offense have to do to get a defense out of C2? Two big things: 1) Effectively run the ball and 2) Run an efficient passing game with a QB (and receivers) who can make the correct reads quickly. 

 

That brings us to the Bills. This is why Kincaid is starting to kill it. He is an excellent route runner who uncovers quickly. It’s also why Gabe Davis isn’t getting many looks - he doesn’t uncover quickly. The lack of a dependable run game has been killing the Bills. If teams can stay in 2 high and stop our run game they don’t have much reason to get out of it and it makes life tough on our QB. Allen has not been bad, but seeing so much two high is an issue for him. He’s much better when he can take deep shots more often than he is quickly reading defenses and distributing the ball with pinpoint short and intermediate passes. 

 

We just saw a team that is made to handle this. Burrow and his WRs are the kind of players that will thrive against two high - with or without blitzes coming at him. It’s their game. As for the Bills, without a running game I think we are in for more of what we have seen so far this year. They can still be a good offense, but it won’t be great or explosive because teams will stay in 2 high. They absolutely have to find a way to get that run game moving. If they can’t get the run game going then they should probably try to find a WR on the team who is better at uncovering quickly than Davis and sub him in more. That will give Allen another quick option and stress defenses more. 

We actually haven’t seen a lot of Cover 2 from defenses against us this season.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I agree 100% that the bills have to find a way to run the ball better vs those deep looks.

 

When your OL is having trouble holding up vs 3 and 4 man pressures and there are 7 or 8 in coverage, you can’t expect much from the passing game. 
 

Figure out a way to force the defense out of that look. 

[BarleyNY]

15 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

We actually haven’t seen a lot of Cover 2 from defenses against us this season.

I’ve noticed two high coverage on plenty of occasions although I’ve only been to one game and seen one on All-22. Do you have access to any stats because I’m basing it on what I’m noticing and the general league trend?

 

Edited to add: not 5 minutes after posting this I heard Joe Marino mention on today’ podcast that the Bills are seeing a lot of two high this season. 

Edited November 10, 2023 by BarleyNY

[HoofHearted]

11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve noticed two high coverage on plenty of occasions although I’ve only been to one game and seen one on All-22. Do you have access to any stats because I’m basing it on what I’m noticing and the general league trend?

The Bills have seen less Cover 2 than most teams, and as a whole it's not being run a ton in the league. Quarters is by far the most common split safety coverage being run league wide. We're seeing a ton of MoF Closed coverages this year.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

On 11/9/2023 at 11:35 AM, Rubes said:

 

Makes you wonder if Allen's running, and the threat of him running, basically overshadowed the lack of a true running game, and kept defenses out of Cover 2 more. Now, without the threat of him running, and without any semblance of a running game, defenses can now make life as difficult for us as they want.

 

Great point, if he starts running more maybe that will help. Idk the X's and 0's of it though, and I'm hammered. 

[BarleyNY]

16 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

The Bills have seen less Cover 2 than most teams, and as a whole it's not being run a ton in the league. Quarters is by far the most common split safety coverage being run league wide. We're seeing a ton of MoF Closed coverages this year.

thank you. Do you have a last year’s numbers?

[HoofHearted]

5 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

thank you. Do you have a last year’s numbers?

I don't, but I'm sure they're out there somewhere.

[Lane Meyer K12]

If there is anything one learned from watching the Bills of old, it is that the Kelly/Thomas/Reed trifecta was a lot more effective than the Marino/Duper/Clayton trifecta.

The complimentary run game made the Bills almost unstoppable.

Whereas Marino/Dolphins were a one trick pony.

A large part of why the Bills dominated the Dolphins during those years.

Likewise, once Elway had his Davis, Superbowl winner. 

The Bills today do not even try to run on some Sundays. Six attempts are not enough. Cook is talented and a homerun threat, heavily under used. 

It appears that they over utilize the shot gun formation and underutilize run/play action.

This needs to change. 

[MJS]

20 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I've watched a lot of football this year, and there are a lot fewer deep passing plays than a few years ago. It feels like when the Devils' Neutral Zone Trap was adopted by all the teams in the NHL. I understand it from a defensive standpoint, but it takes all the fun out of the game.

For awhile, until the pendulum swings back the other way again.

[Low Positive]

23 minutes ago, Lane Meyer K12 said:

If there is anything one learned from watching the Bills of old, it is that the Kelly/Thomas/Reed trifecta was a lot more effective than the Marino/Duper/Clayton trifecta.

The complimentary run game made the Bills almost unstoppable.

Whereas Marino/Dolphins were a one trick pony.

A large part of why the Bills dominated the Dolphins during those years.

Likewise, once Elway had his Davis, Superbowl winner. 

The Bills today do not even try to run on some Sundays. Six attempts are not enough. Cook is talented and a homerun threat, heavily under used. 

It appears that they over utilize the shot gun formation and underutilize run/play action.

This needs to change. 

We're not alone in playing mostly from the shotgun. In 2009, the league average for percentage of SG snaps was 37%. In 2022, it was 66%. https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/analysis/nfl-teams-moving-out-from-under-cenet-riding-shotgunnfl-teams-riding-shotgun/

 

Here's an article from a few weeks ago talking about the decline in offense league-wide and I think the Bills woes fit into all these boxes:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/four-reasons-why-nfl-offenses-are-struggling-in-2023-including-qb-youth-movement-and-demise-of-the-deep-ball/

[Julio Hopkins]

21 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

An O line that over the McD/Bean era has not seen the use of a single #1 pick and only two #2 picks in SIX YEARS.  An O line where Mitch Morse (2019) is by far the most aggressive FA signing in SIX YEARS. Is it even possible to build anything better then an average O line with this level of commitment?

 

 

 

You aren't a fan of watching Spencer Brown get rag dolled into Josh Allen every single passing play?  

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 11/9/2023 at 9:51 AM, BarleyNY said:

Everything is cyclical. The high flying, explosive offenses predicated on chunk pass plays have led to the re-emergence of defenses like Cover 2 (two high shell) and to a lesser extent Cover 4 (quarters). NFL schemes are complex, but generally those two coverages are poor against the run while Cover 1 and 3 are much better against it.

 

The upshot of the big uptick in Cover 2 is that offenses have been limited on deep shots and have gone even more to an underneath game than previously. Overall offensive efficiency is up, but scoring and yardage are down because offenses are taking smaller wins at the expense of explosive plays. I’ll have to find the stat, but one play over 20 yards on a drive increases the chances of scoring on that play dramatically.

 

The other thing C2 gives the defense is five players in underneath coverage. This is why it’s more popular than C4 right now. Defenses are taking more risks jumping routes, blitzing (2 high shell with 4  under), aggressive pass rushing, etc. Defensive coordinators know they’ll get carved up if they play passively so causing a turnover or other negative play is worth the risk of a big offensive play - especially if there are safeties over top to prevent a score. Once a team does get inside the red zone if a defense can tighten up and only allow a FG attempt, then that’s a win for the defense these days. 

 

So what does an offense have to do to get a defense out of C2? Two big things: 1) Effectively run the ball and 2) Run an efficient passing game with a QB (and receivers) who can make the correct reads quickly. 

 

That brings us to the Bills. This is why Kincaid is starting to kill it. He is an excellent route runner who uncovers quickly. It’s also why Gabe Davis isn’t getting many looks - he doesn’t uncover quickly. The lack of a dependable run game has been killing the Bills. If teams can stay in 2 high and stop our run game they don’t have much reason to get out of it and it makes life tough on our QB. Allen has not been bad, but seeing so much two high is an issue for him. He’s much better when he can take deep shots more often than he is quickly reading defenses and distributing the ball with pinpoint short and intermediate passes. 

 

We just saw a team that is made to handle this. Burrow and his WRs are the kind of players that will thrive against two high - with or without blitzes coming at him. It’s their game. As for the Bills, without a running game I think we are in for more of what we have seen so far this year. They can still be a good offense, but it won’t be great or explosive because teams will stay in 2 high. They absolutely have to find a way to get that run game moving. If they can’t get the run game going then they should probably try to find a WR on the team who is better at uncovering quickly than Davis and sub him in more. That will give Allen another quick option and stress defenses more. 

The WCO beats the 2 high shell by beating them so badly shhoet to medium, they have to play up.  Meaning the deep shot opens up.

 

Pat mahomes figured that out like 3 years ago.  For a short stretch this season Josh and Co figured it out

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:56 AM, Gregg said:

 

Basically, be the Baltimore Ravens.

I d be surprised if teams  play a cover 2 shell v ravens 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

4 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

The Bills have seen less Cover 2 than most teams, and as a whole it's not being run a ton in the league. Quarters is by far the most common split safety coverage being run league wide. We're seeing a ton of MoF Closed coverages this year.

With a few exceptions a it looks similar team to team.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

You beat cover two with crossing routes as well. That's what Brown and to some degree McKenzie did well. When is the last time we saw a deep crossing pattern run from the slot?

 

Oh and as for Gabe he caught 9 balls two weeks ago and two other times he had 6 receptions. So while he is not the most gifted WR he can produce.

[JoshAllin]

3 loses last year, 2 shell didnt seem to affect the bills team as much compared to this year, all of Allens stats are higher as well except for his running

[Scott7975]

8 hours ago, Julio Hopkins said:

 

You aren't a fan of watching Spencer Brown get rag dolled into Josh Allen every single passing play?  

 

At least sometimes he moves out of the way so he isn't the one that hits Josh.  Isn't that nice of Brown?

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:51 AM, BarleyNY said:

Everything is cyclical. The high flying, explosive offenses predicated on chunk pass plays have led to the re-emergence of defenses like Cover 2 (two high shell) and to a lesser extent Cover 4 (quarters). NFL schemes are complex, but generally those two coverages are poor against the run while Cover 1 and 3 are much better against it.

 

The upshot of the big uptick in Cover 2 is that offenses have been limited on deep shots and have gone even more to an underneath game than previously. Overall offensive efficiency is up, but scoring and yardage are down because offenses are taking smaller wins at the expense of explosive plays. I’ll have to find the stat, but one play over 20 yards on a drive increases the chances of scoring on that play dramatically.

 

The other thing C2 gives the defense is five players in underneath coverage. This is why it’s more popular than C4 right now. Defenses are taking more risks jumping routes, blitzing (2 high shell with 4  under), aggressive pass rushing, etc. Defensive coordinators know they’ll get carved up if they play passively so causing a turnover or other negative play is worth the risk of a big offensive play - especially if there are safeties over top to prevent a score. Once a team does get inside the red zone if a defense can tighten up and only allow a FG attempt, then that’s a win for the defense these days. 

 

So what does an offense have to do to get a defense out of C2? Two big things: 1) Effectively run the ball and 2) Run an efficient passing game with a QB (and receivers) who can make the correct reads quickly. 

 

That brings us to the Bills. This is why Kincaid is starting to kill it. He is an excellent route runner who uncovers quickly. It’s also why Gabe Davis isn’t getting many looks - he doesn’t uncover quickly. The lack of a dependable run game has been killing the Bills. If teams can stay in 2 high and stop our run game they don’t have much reason to get out of it and it makes life tough on our QB. Allen has not been bad, but seeing so much two high is an issue for him. He’s much better when he can take deep shots more often than he is quickly reading defenses and distributing the ball with pinpoint short and intermediate passes. 

 

We just saw a team that is made to handle this. Burrow and his WRs are the kind of players that will thrive against two high - with or without blitzes coming at him. It’s their game. As for the Bills, without a running game I think we are in for more of what we have seen so far this year. They can still be a good offense, but it won’t be great or explosive because teams will stay in 2 high. They absolutely have to find a way to get that run game moving. If they can’t get the run game going then they should probably try to find a WR on the team who is better at uncovering quickly than Davis and sub him in more. That will give Allen another quick option and stress defenses more. 

 

Time for Isabella to see the field.

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:51 AM, BarleyNY said:

Everything is cyclical. The high flying, explosive offenses predicated on chunk pass plays have led to the re-emergence of defenses like Cover 2 (two high shell) and to a lesser extent Cover 4 (quarters). NFL schemes are complex, but generally those two coverages are poor against the run while Cover 1 and 3 are much better against it.

 

The upshot of the big uptick in Cover 2 is that offenses have been limited on deep shots and have gone even more to an underneath game than previously. Overall offensive efficiency is up, but scoring and yardage are down because offenses are taking smaller wins at the expense of explosive plays. I’ll have to find the stat, but one play over 20 yards on a drive increases the chances of scoring on that play dramatically.

 

The other thing C2 gives the defense is five players in underneath coverage. This is why it’s more popular than C4 right now. Defenses are taking more risks jumping routes, blitzing (2 high shell with 4  under), aggressive pass rushing, etc. Defensive coordinators know they’ll get carved up if they play passively so causing a turnover or other negative play is worth the risk of a big offensive play - especially if there are safeties over top to prevent a score. Once a team does get inside the red zone if a defense can tighten up and only allow a FG attempt, then that’s a win for the defense these days. 

 

So what does an offense have to do to get a defense out of C2? Two big things: 1) Effectively run the ball and 2) Run an efficient passing game with a QB (and receivers) who can make the correct reads quickly. 

 

That brings us to the Bills. This is why Kincaid is starting to kill it. He is an excellent route runner who uncovers quickly. It’s also why Gabe Davis isn’t getting many looks - he doesn’t uncover quickly. The lack of a dependable run game has been killing the Bills. If teams can stay in 2 high and stop our run game they don’t have much reason to get out of it and it makes life tough on our QB. Allen has not been bad, but seeing so much two high is an issue for him. He’s much better when he can take deep shots more often than he is quickly reading defenses and distributing the ball with pinpoint short and intermediate passes. 

 

We just saw a team that is made to handle this. Burrow and his WRs are the kind of players that will thrive against two high - with or without blitzes coming at him. It’s their game. As for the Bills, without a running game I think we are in for more of what we have seen so far this year. They can still be a good offense, but it won’t be great or explosive because teams will stay in 2 high. They absolutely have to find a way to get that run game moving. If they can’t get the run game going then they should probably try to find a WR on the team who is better at uncovering quickly than Davis and sub him in more. That will give Allen another quick option and stress defenses more. 

Excellent post. The only things I will add is that if we had better receivers after Diggs, they would get more attention from defenses and this would help the running game. 

Also, a previous poster mentioned how insufficient resources were devoted to the offensive line. This certainly hinders running and passing, but that is what we got and will continue to get with McDermott running the show.