The Rise of the Two High Shell & Its Impact on the Bills

[BarleyNY]

Everything is cyclical. The high flying, explosive offenses predicated on chunk pass plays have led to the re-emergence of defenses like Cover 2 (two high shell) and to a lesser extent Cover 4 (quarters). NFL schemes are complex, but generally those two coverages are poor against the run while Cover 1 and 3 are much better against it.

 

The upshot of the big uptick in Cover 2 is that offenses have been limited on deep shots and have gone even more to an underneath game than previously. Overall offensive efficiency is up, but scoring and yardage are down because offenses are taking smaller wins at the expense of explosive plays. I’ll have to find the stat, but one play over 20 yards on a drive increases the chances of scoring on that play dramatically.

 

The other thing C2 gives the defense is five players in underneath coverage. This is why it’s more popular than C4 right now. Defenses are taking more risks jumping routes, blitzing (2 high shell with 4  under), aggressive pass rushing, etc. Defensive coordinators know they’ll get carved up if they play passively so causing a turnover or other negative play is worth the risk of a big offensive play - especially if there are safeties over top to prevent a score. Once a team does get inside the red zone if a defense can tighten up and only allow a FG attempt, then that’s a win for the defense these days. 

 

So what does an offense have to do to get a defense out of C2? Two big things: 1) Effectively run the ball and 2) Run an efficient passing game with a QB (and receivers) who can make the correct reads quickly. 

 

That brings us to the Bills. This is why Kincaid is starting to kill it. He is an excellent route runner who uncovers quickly. It’s also why Gabe Davis isn’t getting many looks - he doesn’t uncover quickly. The lack of a dependable run game has been killing the Bills. If teams can stay in 2 high and stop our run game they don’t have much reason to get out of it and it makes life tough on our QB. Allen has not been bad, but seeing so much two high is an issue for him. He’s much better when he can take deep shots more often than he is quickly reading defenses and distributing the ball with pinpoint short and intermediate passes. 

 

We just saw a team that is made to handle this. Burrow and his WRs are the kind of players that will thrive against two high - with or without blitzes coming at him. It’s their game. As for the Bills, without a running game I think we are in for more of what we have seen so far this year. They can still be a good offense, but it won’t be great or explosive because teams will stay in 2 high. They absolutely have to find a way to get that run game moving. If they can’t get the run game going then they should probably try to find a WR on the team who is better at uncovering quickly than Davis and sub him in more. That will give Allen another quick option and stress defenses more. 

Edited November 10, 2023 by BarleyNY

[Blackbeard]

In sum, be able to run to set up the pass.

[BarleyNY]

2 minutes ago, Blackbeard said:

In sum, be able to run to set up the pass.

pretty much

[Gregg]

3 minutes ago, Blackbeard said:

In sum, be able to run to set up the pass.

 

Basically, be the Baltimore Ravens.

[Blackbeard]

And that alll starts with OL.

 

Ugh.

[Low Positive]

10 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

We just saw a team that is made to handle this. Burrow and his WRs are the kind of players that will thrive against two high - with or without blitzes coming at him. It’s their game. As for the Bills, without a running game I think we are in for more of what we have seen so far this year. They can still be a good offense, but it won’t be great or explosive because teams will stay in 2 high. They absolutely have to find a way to get that run game moving. They also should probably try to find a WR on the team who is better at uncovering quickly than Davis and sub him in more. That will give Allen another quick option and stress defenses more. 

The part about the Bengals wasn't always true. In 2021 in their SB run, the Bengals' playbook almost entirely consisted of deep shot 50/50 balls to Chase and Higgins.  They threw the ball all over the field. They came out that way last year and struggled. It was especially apparent in a week 5 game in Baltimore, where Burrow complained in the post-game PC about teams playing them with 2-high safeties and not being able to take the deep shots. They lost an ugly game in Cleveland going into the Bye. The whole offense stayed in Cincinnati (remember @Einstein comparing their dedication to that of the Bills, who all went to the beach)  and they completely changed their approach to a controlled short passing game. It was night and day.

 

Here are highlights of the Bengals most exciting game in 2021, a week 17 home win against KC. I wish teams could play like this again.

 

[dave mcbride]

35 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Everything is cyclical. The high flying, explosive offenses predicated on chunk pass plays have led to the re-emergence of defenses like Cover 2 (two high shell) and to a lesser extent Cover 4 (quads). NFL schemes are complex, but generally those two coverages are poor against the run while Cover 1 and 3 are much better against it.

 

The upshot of the big uptick in Cover 2 is that offenses have been limited on deep shots and have gone even more to an underneath game than previously. Overall offensive efficiency is up, but scoring and yardage are down because offenses are taking smaller wins at the expense of explosive plays. I’ll have to find the stat, but one play over 20 yards on a drive increases the chances of scoring on that play dramatically.

 

The other thing C2 gives the defense is five players in underneath coverage. This is why it’s more popular than C4 right now. Defenses are taking more risks jumping routes, blitzing (2 high shell with 4  under), aggressive pass rushing, etc. Defensive coordinators know they’ll get carved up if they play passively so causing a turnover or other negative play is worth the risk of a big offensive play - especially if there are safeties over top to prevent a score. Once a team does get inside the red zone if a defense can tighten up and only allow a FG attempt, then that’s a win for the defense these days. 

 

So what does an offense have to do to get a defense out of C2? Two big things: 1) Effectively run the ball and 2) Run an efficient passing game with a QB (and receivers) who can make the correct reads quickly. 

 

That brings us to the Bills. This is why Kincaid is starting to kill it. He is an excellent route runner who uncovers quickly. It’s also why Gabe Davis isn’t getting many looks - he doesn’t uncover quickly. The lack of a dependable run game has been killing the Bills. If teams can stay in 2 high and stop our run game they don’t have much reason to get out of it and it makes life tough on our QB. Allen has not been bad, but seeing so much two high is an issue for him. He’s much better when he can take deep shots more often than he is quickly reading defenses and distributing the ball with pinpoint short and intermediate passes. 

 

We just saw a team that is made to handle this. Burrow and his WRs are the kind of players that will thrive against two high - with or without blitzes coming at him. It’s their game. As for the Bills, without a running game I think we are in for more of what we have seen so far this year. They can still be a good offense, but it won’t be great or explosive because teams will stay in 2 high. They absolutely have to find a way to get that run game moving. They also should probably try to find a WR on the team who is better at uncovering quickly than Davis and sub him in more. That will give Allen another quick option and stress defenses more. 

Great post, but I would add that having Allen as more of a running threat will be key to their success. He's an X factor for defenses in that regard, but until the last couple of games they shied away from it (for kinda stupid reasons, in my view; every injury he's had has been in the pocket). I also think the Bills were blinded by the Raiders game a bit, where he didn't really run and they had massive success anyway. The Raiders suck, but against better teams they need to stress the defense with his running ability. 

[Rubes]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Great post, but I would add that having Allen as more of a running threat will be key to their success. He's an X factor for defenses in that regard, but until the last couple of games they shied away from it (for kinda stupid reasons, in my view; every injury he's had has been in the pocket). I also think the Bills were blinded by the Raiders game a bit, where he didn't really run and they had massive success anyway. The Raiders suck, but against better teams they need to stress the defense with his running ability. 

 

Makes you wonder if Allen's running, and the threat of him running, basically overshadowed the lack of a true running game, and kept defenses out of Cover 2 more. Now, without the threat of him running, and without any semblance of a running game, defenses can now make life as difficult for us as they want.

 

[BarleyNY]

44 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Basically, be the Baltimore Ravens.

It does not need to be nearly to that degree. It just has to be an effective run game where we can make defenses chose between staying in two high and getting gashed with runs or getting into other defenses. 

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Great post, but I would add that having Allen as more of a running threat will be key to their success. He's an X factor for defenses in that regard, but until the last couple of games they shied away from it (for kinda stupid reasons, in my view; every injury he's had has been in the pocket). I also think the Bills were blinded by the Raiders game a bit, where he didn't really run and they had massive success anyway. The Raiders suck, but against better teams they need to stress the defense with his running ability. 

 

7 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

Makes you wonder if Allen's running, and the threat of him running, basically overshadowed the lack of a true running game, and kept defenses out of Cover 2 more. Now, without the threat of him running, and without any semblance of a running game, defenses can now make life as difficult for us as they want.

 

 

I agree. If we can’t get the run game going with the RBs, then we probably have no choice but to use Allen more. 

Edited November 9, 2023 by BarleyNY

[K-9]

Somewhere, Chuck Knoll smiles approvingly.

[Buffalo716]

Cover 4 is quarters not quads 

 

 

Edited November 9, 2023 by Buffalo716

[stuvian]

makes sense, good explanation

[Low Positive]

I've watched a lot of football this year, and there are a lot fewer deep passing plays than a few years ago. It feels like when the Devils' Neutral Zone Trap was adopted by all the teams in the NHL. I understand it from a defensive standpoint, but it takes all the fun out of the game.

[CincyBillsFan]

6 hours ago, Blackbeard said:

And that alll starts with OL.

 

Ugh.

An O line that over the McD/Bean era has not seen the use of a single #1 pick and only two #2 picks in SIX YEARS.  An O line where Mitch Morse (2019) is by far the most aggressive FA signing in SIX YEARS. Is it even possible to build anything better then an average O line with this level of commitment?

 

 

[Big Blitz]

I don’t have the stats but this is something that’s always bothered me under Dorsey and Daboll….

 

 

Do we ever hand it off to a running back on 3rd and say 5-7 yards?  

 

Completely anecdotal I don’t have evidence but I’m betting I can count on one hand how many times we’ve done that under Dorsey.   
 

Feels like we run it plenty on 2nd and 5-7 yards.  
 

 

You want to keep that deep cover 2 honest be able to run it on 3rd and medium - especially around their 45 yard line - where we should be going for it on 4th down routinely the rest of the way. 

 

I think it’s also got to be philosophical.  How much pass pro we work on v the run game.  

How else do we explain Zach Moss??

Edited November 9, 2023 by Big Blitz

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 high shell < 3 card monte. 😖
 

Edited November 9, 2023 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[90sBills]

Look for the RB market to rebound with this trend. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Cover 4 is quarters not quads 

 

 

That is correct. Brain fart on my part. 

[Buffalo Junction]

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

I don’t have the stats but this is something that’s always bothered me under Dorsey and Daboll….

 

 

Do we ever hand it off to a running back on 3rd and say 5-7 yards?  

 

Completely anecdotal I don’t have evidence but I’m betting I can count on one hand how many times we’ve done that under Dorsey.   
 

Feels like we run it plenty on 2nd and 5-7 yards.  
 

 

You want to keep that deep cover 2 honest be able to run it on 3rd and medium - especially around their 45 yard line - where we should be going for it on 4th down routinely the rest of the way. 

 

I think it’s also got to be philosophical.  How much pass pro we work on v the run game.  

How else do we explain Zach Moss??

Good point. I’d also say this is where 12 personnel and tempo can be beneficial, particularly with Kincaid’s ability to flex out wide. That 3rd down run could be under center with both TEs inline, and then no huddle a shotgun spread formation after the play without a substitution. The reverse would hold as well. 

[Scott7975]

There is no rise of 2 high shell.  This defense has been tried against Josh for years.  Going back to Daboll.  Its just effective now because Dorsey is attacking it differently.  Josh used to torch this defense.