Ben Solak (The Ringer) Analysis of Josh's Decisions this Year

[reddogblitz]

48 minutes ago, beerme1 said:

 

I'm so sick of this narrative. I'm sick of seeing commercials with Mahomes, Kelsey and Reid. They've won Super Bowls

How has that commercial action impacted their performance? 

This notion that Josh is impacted by this is a joke.

 

 

Maybe maybe not.  Everybody is different. Just because the guys you mentioned have been able to handle it doesn't mean everyone can.

 

I do remember when Ryan Fitzpatrick got a big contract upgrade/extension his played suffered for example.

 

Josh's whole thing Has been the kid everyone said couldn't make it. The kid from the small school. Troy Aikmen said on draft night he would never be accurate.  Now he's made it and proved them all wrong.  He got the fat contract.  Maybe he got a case of the big head. I don't know. Its a theory.  The shoulder is also a good theory.

 

One thing s for certain. He can't throw the bomb this year while he was good at it the last few years. What do you think has changed?

[ProcessTruster]

On 11/8/2023 at 9:53 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

At this point I'm not changing Josh.  Let him be who he is.  Yes there will be reckless moments and turnovers.  But the entire JA17 experience is not something you should tame. He's averaging 40+ tds and a top 3 MVP candidate every year.  Get a better HC and get a defense that can stay healthy for 10 minutes. 

I must agree.   He singlehandedly gave both the Bengals and the Pats early advantages in those game with those horrible 1st Qtr picks where the D dropped under the route and succesfully baited sugar high Josh to make the deeper throw.   The problem this year is the D is so depleted without 4 probowlers that it cannot compensate as well.   But I'd rather ride agressive Josh and bet he grows and resists getting baited into INTs the rest of the season.  We'll see.  

[Pete]

On 11/9/2023 at 8:08 AM, Chaos said:

In Allen's career the Bills have been about the best at moving the ball  between the 20's.  Last year and this year the red zone offense was not nearly as good as the between the 20's offense.  Any analysis of Bills problems on offense, other than the red zone woes, is a complete waste of time, because there are no other problems, only a lack of perfection, which is a completely different thing.

7 straight punts against the Bengals.  Bills D bailed out offense.  But offense couldn't help the D.

 

Offense had several losses where they had ball at end of game, and if offense scored, Bills win.

[Orlando Buffalo]

My issue with Josh right now is that his shoulder is not 100% and he actually has "arm arrogance". He can't throw the ball quite as hard right now and needs to accept that he has to be more common for a few weeks. I truly think the Cincinnati interception would have been completed if he was 100% but he needs to recognize where he is

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, Pete said:

7 straight punts against the Bengals.  Bills D bailed out offense.  But offense couldn't help the D.

 

Offense had several losses where they had ball at end of game, and if offense scored, Bills win.

Right, less than perfect, just the best. Allen also leads in fourth QB comebacks during his NFL career.  No one score lead is ever safe with McDermott's defenses if there are more than 13 seconds left in a game. This is an indisputable fact.   

[dgrochester55]

When you compare Josh Allen to the other current top quarterbacks in the league, he has the highest ceiling, but he also has the lowest floor.   Unfortunately, we have seen more of the second part of that this year than we have in the past three years before.  I still have faith in Allen and think that he can be a franchise QB for a few more years, but right now he is in a slump.

 

There is still time to turn this around, I think that the first step is letting him do what he does best with the run game and play to his strengths instead of trying to hammer a square into a round circle with Dorsey's failed schemes. 

Edited November 11, 2023 by dgrochester55

[90sBills]

46 minutes ago, dgrochester55 said:

When you compare Josh Allen to the other current top quarterbacks in the league, he has the highest ceiling, but he also has the lowest floor.

 

What are your metrics for ‘highest ceiling’? Mine would have to include wins in the most crucial games. Wins to secure #1 overall seeding, wins to advance to the Superbowl etc. Using this guideline he does not have the highest ceiling. He’s a very good qb that may eventually be successful at the highest of levels. But, more and more, we’re seeing his low floor holding him and the team back.

[CincyBillsFan]

7 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

One thing s for certain. He can't throw the bomb this year while he was good at it the last few years. What do you think has changed?

What has changed? Opponents coverage schemes and their willingness to stick with them.  Also other teams recognize that the Bills don't really have anyone who can stretch the field with blazing speed.

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

26 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

What are your metrics for ‘highest ceiling’? Mine would have to include wins in the most crucial games. Wins to secure #1 overall seeding, wins to advance to the Superbowl etc. Using this guideline he does not have the highest ceiling. He’s a very good qb that may eventually be successful at the highest of levels. But, more and more, we’re seeing his low floor holding him and the team back.

Your metrics are screwed up.  If the franchise is unwilling or unable to construct an offense around their elite QB that can deliver more wins & a #1 overall seeding then it's foolish to use those criteria in judging that QB.

 

Allen has already shown he can win the biggest games and raise his play to the stratosphere in the playoffs.  The fact they haven't reached a SB yet has NOTHING to do with Allen and everything to do with the Bills coaching and defensive performances.

 

To suggest that Allen is holding the Bills back is comprehensibly wrong. Without Allen this team is at best 3 - 6 today with no hope of turning it around this season or at anytime in the foreseeable future.

 

 

[Dr.Sack]

27 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Your metrics are screwed up.  If the franchise is unwilling or unable to construct an offense around their elite QB that can deliver more wins & a #1 overall seeding then it's foolish to use those criteria in judging that QB.

 

Allen has already shown he can win the biggest games and raise his play to the stratosphere in the playoffs.  The fact they haven't reached a SB yet has NOTHING to do with Allen and everything to do with the Bills coaching and defensive performances.

 

To suggest that Allen is holding the Bills back is comprehensibly wrong. Without Allen this team is at best 3 - 6 today with no hope of turning it around this season or at anytime in the foreseeable future.

 

 

To be fair, Allen did have a bad game vs the Jets. If Allen could have played a boring 2nd half and not thrown 2 picks and 1 fumble this team would be 6-3. The poor start in New England, down 0-10 after the first quarter was directly attributable to the first throw pick. This is nearly the same drive killing pick thrown to Gabe vs Cincy.

 

If we can get a run of Playoff Allen 17 TDs to 4 picks, and Playoff Gabe this team could beat anyone on the back 8.
 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

What are your metrics for ‘highest ceiling’? Mine would have to include wins in the most crucial games. Wins to secure #1 overall seeding, wins to advance to the Superbowl etc. Using this guideline he does not have the highest ceiling. He’s a very good qb that may eventually be successful at the highest of levels. But, more and more, we’re seeing his low floor holding him and the team back.

By this metric there is Mahomes and then a gigantic drop off to everyone else.

 

Nobody is good enough - starts with Burrow, who game by game in the Playoffs hasn’t been some dominant force - gets by on the back of a good defense, Herbert is 0-1 in the Playoffs, Lawrence has 1 Playoff win, Tua hasn’t been there, Rodgers is 12-10 in the Playoffs, Lamar is 1-3 in the Playoffs, Russ peaked years ago, so who? 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[reddogblitz]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

What has changed? Opponents coverage schemes and their willingness to stick with them.  Also other teams recognize that the Bills don't really have anyone who can stretch the field with blazing speed.

 

 

 

I'm gonna disagree on this. I'm talking bombs here specifically.  In the video, the one he threw on opening night wasn't even in the same zip code as the receiver. If it was the coverage, that's a different issue.   Josh also overthrew Diggs I think it was by 5 yards in another game.  He used to drop dimes on those. This year, not so much.  Hopefully he hits a couple on Monday Night Football.

[90sBills]

59 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

By this metric there is Mahomes and then a gigantic drop off to everyone else.

 

Nobody is good enough - starts with Burrow, who game by game in the Playoffs hasn’t been some dominant force - gets by on the back of a good defense, Herbert is 0-1 in the Playoffs, Lawrence has 1 Playoff win, Tua hasn’t been there, Rodgers is 12-10 in the Playoffs, Lamar is 1-3 in the Playoffs, Russ peaked years ago, so who? 

 

 

The metric isn’t just winning the Superbowl. It’s showing the tenacity to get your teams wins when the odds are stacked against you in the biggest of games. Burrow hasn’t had massive playoffs stats but he doesn’t make the mistakes that could kill his team outside of last year’s AFCCG. He, at the very least, have gotten over the hump to get to the big game. Like it or not, QBs success are tied to teams’ success. Last season was Allen’s chance to show that he could do that too. At home against an opponent that everyone said was better than you. Then he came out and showed no fight whatsoever. Even in their postgame interactions you can tell Burrow doesn’t consider Allen his rival. 

 

You asked who? At this point it’s clearly Mahomes and Burrow. They’re this generation’s version of Brady/Manning. I thought it could’ve been Mahomes and Allen. But since the 13 sec game something had happened to Allen. He has regressed in terms of getting the team (and himself) to another level.

 

As to your first statement…yes there is a gigantic drop off from Mahomes to the next qb. Burrow is closing that gap. Allen is widening that gap. 

[Rockinon]

I think the solution is much simpler than many think. This cannot be an all Diggs, all the time offense. Gabe has been inconsistent and the other skill positions are all guys that are fairly new to the offense. Josh must really just start trusting his new weapons and getting the ball to them. We've seen some of that over the last few weeks. Kincaid is becoming a legit weapon. Cook is getting more opportunities. This needs to be the focus of the offense....simply getting the ball to everyone else. You cannot just quit giving them opportunities because one play goes badly. There is some good talent here and Josh's trust needs to expand and these weapons will only get better with each and every rep. This offense like any offense needs to spread the ball around.

 

I think there is also too much focus on trying to outsmart defenses with game plans and not enough just letting it rip. It is obvious Josh only seems to trust Diggs and that is a shame. I'm actually encouraged that Diggs popped up on the injury report. Perhaps getting some additional practice reps with other players will be helpful. The only way this offense becomes a well oiled machine is to put the ball in the hands of Cook, Kincaid, Shakir and company. It's that simple. Diggs is great, but he's only one man.

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Your metrics are screwed up.  If the franchise is unwilling or unable to construct an offense around their elite QB that can deliver more wins & a #1 overall seeding then it's foolish to use those criteria in judging that QB.

 

Allen has already shown he can win the biggest games and raise his play to the stratosphere in the playoffs.  The fact they haven't reached a SB yet has NOTHING to do with Allen and everything to do with the Bills coaching and defensive performances.

 

To suggest that Allen is holding the Bills back is comprehensibly wrong. Without Allen this team is at best 3 - 6 today with no hope of turning it around this season or at anytime in the foreseeable future.

 

 

You can find comments like ‘he should go scorched Earth’, ‘put the team on his back, and ‘will this team to victory’ all through this forum about Allen. Why do you think people have views like these? It’s because elite QBs are able to do these things. Allen has shown he can do this but not at a level that’s needed to elevate the Bills to where they want to be. At least not yet anyway.

 

You always make it seem like the organization is not doing anything to help him be successful. Are there mistakes made by management relative to player personnel? Absolutely. Could the play design be better? Absolutely. Could Allen play better to pull his team out of tough situations and win? Also absolutely.

 

My point was regarding people saying Allen has the highest ceiling among all NFL quarterbacks. Highest ceiling has to include team success in addition to making the toughest throws. Sometimes these two go hand in hand. Other times team success requires the safe throws and not the toughest throws. Mahomes and Burrow has figured this out. Allen hasn’t and that’s holding him and the team back. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

The metric isn’t just winning the Superbowl. It’s showing the tenacity to get your teams wins when the odds are stacked against you in the biggest of games. Burrow hasn’t had massive playoffs stats but he doesn’t make the mistakes that could kill his team outside of last year’s AFCCG. He, at the very least, have gotten over the hump to get to the big game. Like it or not, QBs success are tied to teams’ success. Last season was Allen’s chance to show that he could do that too. At home against an opponent that everyone said was better than you. Then he came out and showed no fight whatsoever. Even in their postgame interactions you can tell Burrow doesn’t consider Allen his rival. 

 

You asked who? At this point it’s clearly Mahomes and Burrow. They’re this generation’s version of Brady/Manning. I thought it could’ve been Mahomes and Allen. But since the 13 sec game something had happened to Allen. He has regressed in terms of getting the team (and himself) to another level.

 

As to your first statement…yes there is a gigantic drop off from Mahomes to the next qb. Burrow is closing that gap. Allen is widening that gap. 

I see a different story than you.

 

Allen has produced 40+ TDs the past three seasons. 
 

He’s more than good enough to win with.

 

What I see is Buffalo’s lack of investment in speed and skill for him to throw to is catching up to the franchise. 

 

Watching the All-22’s, it’s apparent that we are trying to squeeze more blood out of a stone with efficiency and decision making. 
 

So Allen is throwing interceptions, and not always taking the underneath routes. 
 

But what’s also missing is the playmaking element to this offense.

 

To me, the Bills offense feels like the Chargers. A rocket armed QB, with a #1 WR who is a possession WR, and no speed otherwise. Which means you push the ball to one WR and dump off to running backs.

 

Allen isn’t a tactician like Burrow, not as surgical. But he is an absolute playmaker and is smart enough to play that high efficiency style. 
 

The Bengals can lean on a Top 8 defense, they can lean on the overall #5 and #32 pick and Boyd. 
 

Allen has to say screw it, run more, and pump as many targets as he can to Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir. 
 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[oldmanfan]

When WRs don’t get separation or drop passes, they are criticized and rightfully so.

 

When Dorsey calls odd plays like handing off from the shotgun, or slows things down when the fast paced offense is working, he gets criticized.  And rightfully so.

 

When lineman miss blocks, or miss handing things off to the right guy during a blitz, they get criticized.  And rightfully so.

 

When RBs don’t see a hole or make the wrong cut or miss a block, they get criticized.  And rightfully so.

 

Now here’s the big question for some of you:

 

When Josh makes the wrong read and doesn’t take the easy completion, or when he gets suckered into throwing a pick on the same pattern he’s thrown one before, should he get criticized?  And rightfully so?

 

Or is Josh immune from criticism and as such is the only player on the team and likely the league that enjoys that status?

Edited November 11, 2023 by oldmanfan

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I see a different story than you.

 

Allen has produced 40+ TDs the past three seasons. 
 

He’s more than good enough to win with.

 

What I see is Buffalo’s lack of investment in speed and skill for him to throw to is catching up to the franchise. 

 

Watching the All-22’s, it’s apparent that we are trying to squeeze more blood out of a stone with efficiency and decision making. 
 

So Allen is throwing interceptions, and not always taking the underneath routes. 
 

But what’s also missing is the playmaking element to this offense.

 

To me, the Bills offense feels like the Chargers. A rocket armed QB, with a #1 WR who is a possession WR, and no speed otherwise. Which means you push the ball to one WR and dump off to running backs.

 

Allen isn’t a tactician like Burrow, not as surgical. But he is an absolute playmaker and is smart enough to play that high efficiency style. 
 

The Bengals can lean on a Top 8 defense, they can lean on the overall #5 and #32 pick and Boyd. 
 

Allen has to say screw it, run more, and pump as many targets as he can to Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir. 
 

 

 

More speed offense would definitely help. Allen can also help out the playmakers with better ball placements. Often time his placements leave receivers unable to make significant moves after catching the ball. His accuracy has taken a step back so far this season. Maybe it’s the shoulder. 
 

I do agree he has the game to win a title. He and the team need to put it all together one year. Unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like this isn’t the year. 

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

14 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

 

I do agree he has the game to win a title. He and the team need to put it all together one year. Unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like this isn’t the year. 

 

 

Yeah and in the game day thread, you look at how thin this defensive secondary is with no Hyde, no Benford, Elam on IR and not trusted anyways. 
 

You’re our there with Douglas who has been here a week, Dane Jackson and Taron Johnson, a gimpy Jordan Poyer and Taylor Rapp.

So it’s just a duct tape unit.

 

Utilize Cook in the pass game more, and like I said, Diggs (72%), Kincaid (88%) and Shakir (95%) are your most efficient players. Have to push the ball there. 
 

The other video about the run game is eye opening, and he says it is the #1 reason drives fail. I guess that means minimize it, or run out of simple Pro Set formations. 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, 90sBills said:

You can find comments like ‘he should go scorched Earth’, ‘put the team on his back, and ‘will this team to victory’ all through this forum about Allen. Why do you think people have views like these? It’s because elite QBs are able to do these things. Allen has shown he can do this but not at a level that’s needed to elevate the Bills to where they want to be. At least not yet anyway.

 

You always make it seem like the organization is not doing anything to help him be successful. Are there mistakes made by management relative to player personnel? Absolutely. Could the play design be better? Absolutely. Could Allen play better to pull his team out of tough situations and win? Also absolutely.

 

My point was regarding people saying Allen has the highest ceiling among all NFL quarterbacks. Highest ceiling has to include team success in addition to making the toughest throws. Sometimes these two go hand in hand. Other times team success requires the safe throws and not the toughest throws. Mahomes and Burrow has figured this out. Allen hasn’t and that’s holding him and the team back. 

To be clear I'm saying that the Bills organization is not doing enough to FULLY EXPLOIT Allen's unique skill set and elite QB play.  Allen has already been wildly successful.