Ben Solak (The Ringer) Analysis of Josh's Decisions this Year

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Sounds like you’re not into wining a championship, Allen not taking the obvious chain moving option is a large part of the offenses troubles, limiting the offense to being the mad bomber offense makes the Bills easy to defend.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Execution wins championships.

 

There is definitely a time and place for Allen to take the checkdowns and move the chains. But when you have the opportunity for the mad bomber play, you have to take it and more importantly, you have to hit more times than not.

 

2 plays in the Bengals game come to mind. First was the home run ball to Harty. I have seen the All 22 and Gabe does eventually come free underneath for the easy competition. However, Allen was presented a single high look and had his "speed guy" in Harty one on one. This is a shot you simply have to take...however Harty couldn't really get separation and Josh made a less than great throw. 

 

Second play was the intentional grounding call. Again, Allen had options underneath. However he had Davis one on one and made the proper read and from the looks of where the ball landed he made a great throw...only to have Gabe cut it off. 

 

In both cases, yes there was a chance to move the ball, but they had chances and didn't execute the play. 

[Sherlock Holmes]

On 11/8/2023 at 10:33 PM, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Hey Josh, it’s the NFL in 2023, and we want you to be accurate on long balls.

 

And to help you do that we have Stefon Diggs, holdover Gabe Davis, and a 5th rounder who we forgot was even on the team until 3 games ago.

 

And then we brought in some weapons for you:

 

5’6” 170 pound Deonte Harty

 

Career journeyman Trent Sherfield

 

And a 6’3” 240 pound Tight End without the Brock Bowers wheels. 
 

Now get out there sport and make it happen! 
 

And if you show us you can do it, we’ll throw in some 33-year old Latavius Murray in the slot for you! 

 

 

Draft Bowers too!

[BananaB]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

3 Int’s vs. 1.  What loses games?  Turnovers.

 

We all love Josh, but watching that game last Sunday if you didn’t think Burrow did a better job then you’re hero worshipping.

To be honest I thought, how easy would it be for Josh if all his WRs had 4 yards of separation like the Bengals WRs. 

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I agree that under the circumstances Mahomes is having a better season then Allen.  That's why I said Allen was playing better then "almost every other QB". 

 

I also find your argument unpersuasive.  Sure Allen could play better, every QB could including Mahomes, could play better. But Allan's play is not the core problem with our offense.  So which of the following do you think would move the needle more on offensive production keeping everything else the same:

 

*  Improved play by Allen.

 

*  Improved play by the O line.

 

*  Improved play by the skill players.

 

*  Improved coaching & play calling.

 

* A commitment over the last four seasons to spending high draft picks & FA signings on the O line and skill players.

 

To me the answer is obvious. How about you?

 

 

Oh, so we were arguing the same point. Allen is not playing on a higher level than ALL other QBs in the league, but then you asked “who’s playing better?” as if to imply the statement was true. Shouldn’t have asked if you were in agreement.

 

Also, again, I didn’t say Allen’s play was the core problem with the offense, I said it contributed to part of the problem. He is missing reads, he is missing potential TDs, he hasn’t always been patient in the pocket, those are all true. As to what would move the needle? I’d like to immediately look at “coaching,” but seeing open receiving options that are being passed up gives me pause. Maybe that is a fault with the coaches, they’re not teaching Allen properly, who knows. None of us are in those meetings. I think the obvious answer is your last bullet point. If resources over the last four years had gone to that side of the ball AND Beane had hit on the picks/signings, they’d be so good it wouldn’t matter if Allen missed reads or TDs. They’d get it on the next play. Or the one after that. 

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

3 Int’s vs. 1.  What loses games?  Turnovers.

 

We all love Josh, but watching that game last Sunday if you didn’t think Burrow did a better job then you’re hero worshipping.

No, I do not think Allen played better than Burrow last Sunday. But I also understand offenses play against defenses which is why when you want to compare QB performance it's more instructive to look at a larger sample than 1 head to head game, which is why I gave you those 3game stats.

 

I like to think I am capable of judging Allen objectively. It's not hero worshipping to say that he's at the top of the league in a lot of important efficiency metrics and top2-7 in all the major counting stats as well. No other QB has performed as well as Allen over the course of this season. It's not hero worshipping. It's just facts.

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Draft Bowers too!

I've thought that. 

 

At this rate the Bills might not have to move up for him. 

 

But nah in reality, they'd probably have to trade up for him, but that would be a true two Tight End set. 

 

Still want a WR. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

8 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I've thought that. 

 

At this rate the Bills might not have to move up for him. 

 

But nah in reality, they'd probably have to trade up for him, but that would be a true two Tight End set. 

 

Still want a WR. 

He's mocked Top 5, and I looked at CBS and USA Today and they have us taking a CB and DT. 

 

My gosh. 

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I've thought that. 

 

At this rate the Bills might not have to move up for him. 

 

But nah in reality, they'd probably have to trade up for him, but that would be a true two Tight End set. 

 

Still want a WR. 

Three TE sets Definitely a run formation dream! 

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Execution wins championships.

 

There is definitely a time and place for Allen to take the checkdowns and move the chains. But when you have the opportunity for the mad bomber play, you have to take it and more importantly, you have to hit more times than not.

 

2 plays in the Bengals game come to mind. First was the home run ball to Harty. I have seen the All 22 and Gabe does eventually come free underneath for the easy competition. However, Allen was presented a single high look and had his "speed guy" in Harty one on one. This is a shot you simply have to take...however Harty couldn't really get separation and Josh made a less than great throw. 

 

Second play was the intentional grounding call. Again, Allen had options underneath. However he had Davis one on one and made the proper read and from the looks of where the ball landed he made a great throw...only to have Gabe cut it off. 

 

In both cases, yes there was a chance to move the ball, but they had chances and didn't execute the play. 

  Agree, execution is paramount.  I would not want the long/longer passes to be absent, but when you need a first down you take the high percentage pass so you have better chance for a new series of downs that gives you the opportunities to try the low completion percentage long ball that may get you some points, its all about “when” to go short or long with a pass, situational football decisions make and break games. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

  Agree, execution is paramount.  I would not want the long/longer passes to be absent, but when you need a first down you take the high percentage pass so you have better chance for a new series of downs that gives you the opportunities to try the low completion percentage long ball that may get you some points, its all about “when” to go short or long with a pass, situational football decisions make and break games. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

I do agree.

 

However it's important to recognize that situational football also means  having awareness of your tendencies and throwing tendency breakers in as well. For instance, if you typically throw short of the sticks on 3rd and medium, taking that deep pop in that situation is smart at times as it will keep a defense playing honest. 

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

Oh, so we were arguing the same point. Allen is not playing on a higher level than ALL other QBs in the league, but then you asked “who’s playing better?” as if to imply the statement was true. Shouldn’t have asked if you were in agreement.

 

Also, again, I didn’t say Allen’s play was the core problem with the offense, I said it contributed to part of the problem. He is missing reads, he is missing potential TDs, he hasn’t always been patient in the pocket, those are all true. As to what would move the needle? I’d like to immediately look at “coaching,” but seeing open receiving options that are being passed up gives me pause. Maybe that is a fault with the coaches, they’re not teaching Allen properly, who knows. None of us are in those meetings. I think the obvious answer is your last bullet point. If resources over the last four years had gone to that side of the ball AND Beane had hit on the picks/signings, they’d be so good it wouldn’t matter if Allen missed reads or TDs. They’d get it on the next play. Or the one after that. 

If you are trying to diagnose the problems facing the Bills offense Allen is the least of those problems.  Sure he could play better as any player could but if I had to prioritize the top 5 issues the Bills O faces Allen would not make the list. 

 

And imagine if instead of Miller the Bills had signed Hill or McCafrey?  Or that they had used one or two of the three first round picks from 2019, 2021, & 2022 on an O lineman or skill player?

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

8 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Both Allen and Burrow are great QBs.  Burrow is running his offense better than Josh is running his right now.  That likely  has some to do with Zac Taylor scheming better than Dorsey.  But Burrow also seems to take the throw that’s there more than Allen.

 

I agree that Taylor and the Bengal's O coordinator together are scheming their O better then Dorsey is for the Bills.  And it's a lot easier for Burrow to run his offense better then Allen runs his because Burrow has a much better O line, RB & WR group to utilize. 

 

 

[RunTheBall]

 Allen is being asked to do too much, as usual, and it’s affecting him mentally. He looks burned out already and I think that’s because most of Dorsey’s plays are “Josh go make it happen”. I spoke to an ex OC who you’d all know and he mentioned that Andrew Luck once told him something very interesting. Andrew told him that when the game plan was such that 25 plays turned into him making something happen and was solely on him to do so, that he got mentally fried. That’s from one of the most intelligent/cerebral QBs to play the game. I think that’s where we are with Josh, I think he’s mentally burned out. The OC also said from his stand point it looks like the plays are selected out of a hat with no flow or continuity from one play to the other. Buffalo has no identity right now. Take it for what it’s worth. None of this is groundbreaking or anything we haven’t seen. I just thought it was interesting to have those opinions echoed by a guy who really knows his stuff.

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

No, I do not think Allen played better than Burrow last Sunday. But I also understand offenses play against defenses which is why when you want to compare QB performance it's more instructive to look at a larger sample than 1 head to head game, which is why I gave you those 3game stats.

 

I like to think I am capable of judging Allen objectively. It's not hero worshipping to say that he's at the top of the league in a lot of important efficiency metrics and top2-7 in all the major counting stats as well. No other QB has performed as well as Allen over the course of this season. It's not hero worshipping. It's just facts.

 

 

Funny how we get accused of "hero worship" for defending Allen on 2BD.  As you note the stats are pretty clear that Allen is having a very strong season.

 

Over my professional life I've found that most problems can be explained by 2 or 3 big issues that if resolved fix the problem.  My objective assessment of the Bills offensive limitations involves coaching, O line & skill players and more broadly that the Bills have focused the lions share of the teams resources on the D rather then the O. Getting more out of Allen wouldn't make my top 5. 

3 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

 Allen is being asked to do too much, as usual, and it’s affecting him mentally. He looks burned out already and I think that’s because most of Dorsey’s plays are “Josh go make it happen”. I spoke to an ex OC who you’d all know and he mentioned that Andrew Luck once told him something very interesting. Andrew told him that when the game plan was such that 25 plays turned into him making something happen and was solely on him to do so, that he got mentally fried. That’s from one of the most intelligent/cerebral QBs to play the game. I think that’s where we are with Josh, I think he’s mentally burned out. The OC also said from his stand point it looks like the plays are selected out of a hat with no flow or continuity from one play to the other. Buffalo has no identity right now. Take it for what it’s worth. None of this is groundbreaking or anything we haven’t seen. I just thought it was interesting to have those opinions echoed by a guy who really knows his stuff.

 

 

Every time I read something like this the Greg Cosell quote pops up in my mind:  "if you need you QB to be great every game then you have a problem and it's not the QB."

 

 

[4merper4mer]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

No, I do not think Allen played better than Burrow last Sunday. But I also understand offenses play against defenses which is why when you want to compare QB performance it's more instructive to look at a larger sample than 1 head to head game, which is why I gave you those 3game stats.

 

I like to think I am capable of judging Allen objectively. It's not hero worshipping to say that he's at the top of the league in a lot of important efficiency metrics and top2-7 in all the major counting stats as well. No other QB has performed as well as Allen over the course of this season. It's not hero worshipping. It's just facts.

 

 

 

 

[Comebackkid]

On 11/8/2023 at 7:52 PM, Bob Jones said:

This guy does an excellent job detailing JA’s weaknesses. JA may not be as good as we think he is. I guess all we can do is see if he improves on those weaknesses in the rest of the games this year.

 

Edit to add: Getting a kick at all of the posters who basically are saying that Josh is the second coming of Tom Brady, and he can do no wrong. I’m not totally surprised though, as has been noted before, there are tons of homer Bills fans with red & blue binders on.

 

The bottom line is that the tape doesn’t lie, but stats often do lie because there’s more to the story. Anybody who thinks that he hasn’t regressed since 2021 is just in denial, or maybe blind.

Coaching/teaching/details have regressed

[BigDingus]

This video should be mandatory viewing for everyone on this board.

 

Just like the drought days, people need to remember EXECUTION matters more than anything else. We all love to blame the OC for the shortcomings of the offense, but so many of these issues are simply failure to execute. 

 

Josh being banged up certainly doesn't help, but way too many of these issues are about not reading the situation, and making the wrong choices. Accuracy on deep throws is terrible as well, but that's one of those problems you can argue is most impacted by whatever is going on with his shoulder.

 

But if the injury is impacting him THAT much (with only Mac Jones being less accurate on those throws), then that's where Dorsey, Allen & even McDermott need to come together & figure out a gameplan that doesn't involve many of those throws.

[BigDingus]

11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

No other QB has performed as well as Allen over the course of this season. It's not hero worshipping. It's just facts.

 

Except for those who have eyes & watch the full games, rather than checkout box scores. 

 

I already made this point in another thread, but the last month+ of this season, Allen has been nowhere close to the top QB in the league, and suggesting "no other QB has performed as well" as him over the season looks more & more silly with each passing game. 

 

Averaging it out over 9 & pretending that's how he's played all year is just a nice way to disguise how he's played for 5 straight games. Using box stats to inflate how good he was in a game also is misleading. 

 

I mean, look at how great Josh was in London against the Jags - 27/40, 359 yards, 3 TDs, 102 passer rating!

 

But in reality, the Bills only put up 7 points on 1 TD & 1 INT until only about 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

 

And it's not like the Giants, Pats or Bengals games were much better. Even the Bucs game was inconsistent, but the box score looks solid! There is no way anyone but Bills fans would suggest that NO OTHER QB has performed as well as Allen this season.

Edited November 11, 2023 by BigDingus

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

Except for those who have eyes & watch the full games, rather than checkout box scores. 

 

I already made this point in another thread, but the last month+ of this season, Allen has been nowhere close to the top QB in the league, and suggesting "no other QB has performed as well" as him over the season looks more & more silly with each passing game. 

 

Averaging it out over 9 & pretending that's how he's played all year is just a nice way to disguise how he's played for 5 straight games. Using box stats to inflate how good he was in a game also is misleading. 

 

I mean, look at how great Josh was in London against the Jags - 27/40, 359 yards, 3 TDs, 102 passer rating!

 

But in reality, the Bills only put up 7 points on 1 TD & 1 INT until only about 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

 

And it's not like the Giants, Pats or Bengals games were much better. Even the Bucs game was inconsistent, but the box score looks solid! There is no way anyone but Bills fans would suggest that NO OTHER QB has performed as well as Allen this season.

How would I check out box scores w no eyes

[beerme1]

On 11/8/2023 at 10:17 PM, reddogblitz said:

I agree with the guy on the video. Josh's accuracy on the long ball has been off this year.  Even pre injury.  He's got Diggs or Shakir or Gabe on an open bomb and over air mails him by 5 yards.  Reminds me of 2018 Josh. He can throw it a country mile. We're just not sure where its gonna come down.

 

Maybe he spent too much time in the off season making commercials, playing celebrity golf tournaments, and chasing girls and not enough time practicing his passing.

 

I'm so sick of this narrative. I'm sick of seeing commercials with Mahomes, Kelsey and Reid. They've won Super Bowls

How has that commercial action impacted their performance? 

This notion that Josh is impacted by this is a joke.