Ben Solak (The Ringer) Analysis of Josh's Decisions this Year

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

For what it's worth Allen also leads the league in total TD's and QBR rating.  Allen is in fact playing better then almost every the other QB in the NFL.  And yet the Bills are still losing which is the crux of the problem.

 

 

He is playing better than most of the QBs in the league, like we hope he should be. He’s not playing on a higher level than every QB in the league as another poster suggested. 
 

I’m starting to get Edmunds vibes again…
 

There’s a contingent of fans stating what they see, wrt Allen, the offense, and the team’s struggles, and then there’s another group telling them what they’re seeing is wrong. That second group also never criticized the player, it was everyone else around him. “He’s doing his job and well,” as if that player doesn’t need to play better as well.

[Goin Breakdown]

"3 for 20 on passes 20 yards or further. The only Qb worse is Mac jones". Yuk if that's were we are now. Crazy how the defense gets injured and as a result the offense suffers. May be two different issues but the timing sucks. Used to be where one side sucked "at least were playing good on the other side"

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

He is playing better than most of the QBs in the league, like we hope he should be. He’s not playing on a higher level than every QB in the league as another poster suggested. 
 

I’m starting to get Edmunds vibes again…
 

There’s a contingent of fans stating what they see, wrt Allen, the offense, and the team’s struggles, and then there’s another group telling them what they’re seeing is wrong. That second group also never criticized the player, it was everyone else around him. “He’s doing his job and well,” as if that player doesn’t need to play better as well.

What QB's are playing better then Allen so far this year? 

 

Allen and Edmunds nave NOTHING in common and you lose all credibility when you suggest that they do.  At his best Edmunds was never a top 10 LB while Allen has been a top 5 QB for the last three and one half seasons including this one.

 

 

[Dr.Sack]

The argument being made is Allen is playing good, but needs to be consistently excellent all 4 qtrs of game for the Bills to win games. That’s a tough ask. QBs get sacked, hurried and turnovers happen. 

[CincyBillsFan]

18 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

The argument being made is Allen is playing good, but needs to be consistently excellent all 4 qtrs of game for the Bills to win games. That’s a tough ask. QBs get sacked, hurried and turnovers happen. 

I would suggest that it's an impossible task as NO QB is excellent all 4 quarters in every game they play in.  Yet you're right to note that this seems to be the expectation of a surprisingly large number of fans on 2BT.

 

As the great QB analyst Greg Cosell repeatedly says when talking about the Bills & Allen:

 

"If you need your QB to be great every game then you have a problem and it's not the QB."

 

 

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

What QB's are playing better then Allen so far this year? 

 

Allen and Edmunds nave NOTHING in common and you lose all credibility when you suggest that they do.  At his best Edmunds was never a top 10 LB while Allen has been a top 5 QB for the last three and one half seasons including this one.

 

 

Allen is an all star, Edmunds was never close to that status. Obviously. The back and forth about who’s responsible for the lack of production (or struggles) is what was giving me the Edmunds vibes. I criticized Edmunds when he was here and was given a myriad of excuses as to why he was coming up short, or not making plays. I criticize Allen’s play when it’s warranted as well, but others here want to blame everyone but him. Allen shares blame for why the offense is struggling, he’s the guy who touches the ball on every single play. It’s that simple. He’s not entirely to blame and those around him can do better. That’s also an obvious take. That’s the parallel between the two players, Edmunds and Allen, discussion wise.

 

And if you think Allen has been playing on a higher level than Kermit over in KC, that’s a strong disagree. Allen may be ahead of him in stats, but to my eye there’s no other QB doing more with a worst supporting cast. Those WRs have failed him time and time again, they probably lead the league in drops. He has that special sort of magic that Allen has, but with even more consistency.
I wish we could play out the entire season with Allen and then play out the season again with Mahomes. Same opponents. The only way to do that is in Madden, but for those who believe Allen is a superior QB or has been playing better than Pat, I firmly believe they’d be in for a huge awakening. 

[Scott7975]

16 hours ago, Pete said:

Jacksonville provided the blueprint how to beat Josh, using two high shell.

 

This is nothing new.  Defenses tried this back when Daboll was here. Josh torched it before.  He has seen and torched just about everything.  This is why he was on an unstoppable roll in 2021, because nothing they threw at him worked.  Not two high shell, not man, not zone, not cover zero, not blitzes... nothing worked against him once he figured it out.  Like cover zero took him a couple games.

 

Everyone thinks taking checkdowns is the answer and sometimes it is but nobody is bringing their safeties down.  They dont give a crap about the checkdown.  Making us play perfect for 15 play drives is what they are going to do because nobody can consistently play perfect on those kinds of drives when one mistake ends the drive.  One missed pass, one penalty, one sack, one turnover, one stuffed run, etc etc... all end the drive unless there is a defensive mistake or Allen makes a super hero play.  That isn't going to consistently happen.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Scott7975

[Buffalo Barbarian]

18 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

We have a very complex offense that is easily predictable and looks vanilla. That’s a HUGE problem and it’s all Dorsey in terms of the scheme.

 

Josh’s problem is that he refuses to take the open short stuff. If he did that early, he gets in a rhythm and then the deeper stuff will open up as the defense adjusts to take away what’s working. The problem is this offense doesn’t seem to scheme against an opponents weaknesses. Dorsey just says “this is who we are, stop us” and teams have been doing that pretty regularly over the past 5 games.

 

There are other issues - the lack of running game, Gabe Davis sucking again, Harty not being used at all, etc.

 

I think one of the biggest issues was the huge emphasis in the beginning of the year of Josh running less. That was asinine, the guy needs to run to be his best. He’s not as good as Mahomes/Burrow at pre and post snap reads. He needs the threat of the run to open things up more for him.

 

Bottom line - It’s year 6 for Josh and he should have evolved by now to take what the defense gives him until it opens up what he wants to do (intermediate/deep shots). Why he refuses to do that idk because when he does, he’s nearly unstoppable. 

 

 

I agree with most of this but its not josh not taking the shorter stuff is that there are too many options to read. There is too much thinking involved for everyone and he ends up making the wrong decision.

 

Its not reading each WR then going to the next its reading multiple options by that one WR then reading multiple options for the next and so on. That will slow any offense down. 

 

I would also like to see Isabella given a Beasley type roll .

 

[oldmanfan]

14 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

No no no don't do that

 

Make you claim. Who's playing better right now?

Burrow and it’s not even close

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Burrow and it’s not even close

not close 😂

 

Allen last 3 games

 

84/119

949 total yards

8TDs/3ints

 

Burrow last 3 games

 

83/111

867 total yards

7TDs/1int

[oldmanfan]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

not close 😂

 

Allen last 3 games

 

84/119

949 total yards

8TDs/3ints

 

Burrow last 3 games

 

83/111

867 total yards

7TDs/1int

3 Int’s vs. 1.  What loses games?  Turnovers.

 

We all love Josh, but watching that game last Sunday if you didn’t think Burrow did a better job then you’re hero worshipping.

[Low Positive]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

3 Int’s vs. 1.  What loses games?  Turnovers.

 

We all love Josh, but watching that game last Sunday if you didn’t think Burrow did a better job then you’re hero worshipping.

Of course, Burrow played better than Josh on Sunday. There is no question of that. The question becomes "would you rather have Josh Allen than Joe Burrow" and I'm not sure how I would answer that question at this point. Burrow has done a much better job than Josh in adjusting to the new dink-and-dunk reality of the NFL. But Joe Burrow has also never won a college or pro game without an absolute all-star team surrounding him. What I will say is, having watched almost every game of Joe Burrow's NFL career, that watching Joe Burrow play QB is a lot less of a stressful experience for a fan than watching Josh Allen play. He always makes the correct decision, but that's because he's a coach's son. We Bills fans will have to be on the Josh Allen rollercoaster. We have no choice.

 

Another thing (and I always get a lot of red Xs for this point); the Bengals offense is chock full of players who won big in HS and college. Did you know that Joe Burrow took Athens HS, a team that had no history of winning, all the way to the Ohio State Championship Game? People in WNY have no idea how big HS football is in a place like Ohio, but this is a huge deal. Winning is a learned skill, and Duke Tobin places a lot of value on it. Beane drafts for physical traits.

[oldmanfan]

31 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Of course, Burrow played better than Josh on Sunday. There is no question of that. The question becomes "would you rather have Josh Allen than Joe Burrow" and I'm not sure how I would answer that question at this point. Burrow has done a much better job than Josh in adjusting to the new dink-and-dunk reality of the NFL. But Joe Burrow has also never won a college or pro game without an absolute all-star team surrounding him. What I will say is, having watched almost every game of Joe Burrow's NFL career, that watching Joe Burrow play QB is a lot less of a stressful experience for a fan than watching Josh Allen play. He always makes the correct decision, but that's because he's a coach's son. We Bills fans will have to be on the Josh Allen rollercoaster. We have no choice.

 

Another thing (and I always get a lot of red Xs for this point); the Bengals offense is chock full of players who won big in HS and college. Did you know that Joe Burrow took Athens HS, a team that had no history of winning, all the way to the Ohio State Championship Game? People in WNY have no idea how big HS football is in a place like Ohio, but this is a huge deal. Winning is a learned skill, and Duke Tobin places a lot of value on it. Beane drafts for physical traits.

Both Allen and Burrow are great QBs.  Burrow is running his offense better than Josh is running his right now.  That likely  has some to do with Zac Taylor scheming better than Dorsey.  But Burrow also seems to take the throw that’s there more than Allen.

 

I’d like to see Allen take the easier short throws that will then open things up downfield.  He seems to do that more when they go fast tempo so I think Dorsey should go with that and quit farting around with other approaches.

 

Too many here are saying that Josh should just be left alone.  He is prone to bad decisions and as a result throws more picks than he should.  Brady always said he wanted to be coached hard; Josh could use that as well.

[Low Positive]

11 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Both Allen and Burrow are great QBs.  Burrow is running his offense better than Josh is running his right now.  That likely  has some to do with Zac Taylor scheming better than Dorsey.  But Burrow also seems to take the throw that’s there more than Allen.

 

I’d like to see Allen take the easier short throws that will then open things up downfield.  He seems to do that more when they go fast tempo so I think Dorsey should go with that and quit farting around with other approaches.

 

Too many here are saying that Josh should just be left alone.  He is prone to bad decisions and as a result throws more picks than he should.  Brady always said he wanted to be coached hard; Josh could use that as well.

People here in Cincinnati would disagree with you on Taylor. They think his offense is vanilla and relies too much on Burrow and Chase making plays. They all wonder what Mike McDaniel would do with their roster. The grass is always greener.

[oldmanfan]

7 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

People here in Cincinnati would disagree with you on Taylor. They think his offense is vanilla and relies too much on Burrow and Chase making plays. They all wonder what Mike McDaniel would do with their roster. The grass is always greener.

There you go.  I’m sure folks in KC are bitching about Reid too.

[CincyBillsFan]

11 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

Allen is an all star, Edmunds was never close to that status. Obviously. The back and forth about who’s responsible for the lack of production (or struggles) is what was giving me the Edmunds vibes. I criticized Edmunds when he was here and was given a myriad of excuses as to why he was coming up short, or not making plays. I criticize Allen’s play when it’s warranted as well, but others here want to blame everyone but him. Allen shares blame for why the offense is struggling, he’s the guy who touches the ball on every single play. It’s that simple. He’s not entirely to blame and those around him can do better. That’s also an obvious take. That’s the parallel between the two players, Edmunds and Allen, discussion wise.

 

And if you think Allen has been playing on a higher level than Kermit over in KC, that’s a strong disagree. Allen may be ahead of him in stats, but to my eye there’s no other QB doing more with a worst supporting cast. Those WRs have failed him time and time again, they probably lead the league in drops. He has that special sort of magic that Allen has, but with even more consistency.
I wish we could play out the entire season with Allen and then play out the season again with Mahomes. Same opponents. The only way to do that is in Madden, but for those who believe Allen is a superior QB or has been playing better than Pat, I firmly believe they’d be in for a huge awakening. 

I agree that under the circumstances Mahomes is having a better season then Allen.  That's why I said Allen was playing better then "almost every other QB". 

 

I also find your argument unpersuasive.  Sure Allen could play better, every QB could including Mahomes, could play better. But Allan's play is not the core problem with our offense.  So which of the following do you think would move the needle more on offensive production keeping everything else the same:

 

*  Improved play by Allen.

 

*  Improved play by the O line.

 

*  Improved play by the skill players.

 

*  Improved coaching & play calling.

 

* A commitment over the last four seasons to spending high draft picks & FA signings on the O line and skill players.

 

To me the answer is obvious. How about you?

 

 

[blacklabel]

I've said since his rookie year, the dude is gonna knock your socks off with some plays and make you scratch your head a bit on some others. It's who he is. If anything, I feel like maybe the dude overthinks a bit. All this "low positive" stuff and always trying to maintain a balanced mood over the games. I dunno, I get it, but I kinda miss that dude who was always chirping on the sidelines and getting his guys amped up. Not that he doesn't do that, just seems to be less of it. 

 

Whoever in this thread said they need to cut loose and have fun had it right. 

[jletha]

Allens biggest flaw is that hes not as good as Mahomes. Bills fans want Buffalo to be wire to wire SB favorites over multiple years. The reality is that is exceedingly difficult. Reserved for the Pats and current Chiefs of the world. Teams have down years even with good QBs, think Big Ben & Brees. For that class of QB its about finding the right combination of team and luck in a year and it all coming together. Im sure year-to-year people in Pitt and NOLA were frustrated that werent as consistent as Tom or Manning. But in retrospect, that era is remembered fondly because they got their SBs.

 

Allen is a very very very good QB. His careers will have ups and downs, twists and turns. The reality is that the Allen era will be about winning 1 in his career, not 3-5.

 

I am totally fine with that.

Edited November 10, 2023 by jletha

[2003Contenders]

I agree that you have to take the good with the bad when it comes to Josh. He has always reminded me of a more talented version of Favre. Josh has the physical tools to constantly wow us with things that no other QB can do. But he often fails when it comes to executing the smaller things that every NFL QB should be able to do.

 

The former is a skill set that he was blessed with and cannot be taught. The latter are things that he can do if he is consistently disciplined. The part that makes this so frustrating is that Josh HAS shown in various stretches that he is perfectly capable of being patient, disciplined and making the right decisions. The game against Miami this season is a great example of that.

 

The knee jerk reaction is to suggest that the issue is coaching. Maybe that is true -- but that wasn't exactly the case with Fave. That dude had Holmgren, Reid, Mariucci, and Gruden coaching him...

[Don Otreply]

On 11/8/2023 at 9:51 PM, FrenchConnection said:

I don't want to see Josh take check-downs or play "efficient." Unleash the beast!

Sounds like you’re not into wining a championship, Allen not taking the obvious chain moving option is a large part of the offenses troubles, limiting the offense to being the mad bomber offense makes the Bills easy to defend.

 

GO BILLS!!!