Ben Solak (The Ringer) Analysis of Josh's Decisions this Year

[Drew21PA]

11 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Hasn't he always played like this? 

Right?

 

but let’s continue to try to change who he is so you know he plays worse.

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

I’ve gotten a kick outta these threads evaluating Allen he’s probably the most scrutinized QB in the league as I never really have gotten the hatred for the guy but maybe it was just predraft stuff like Nick Wright. 
To put Allen’s greatness in perspective if the Bills organization had taken any other single QB in 2018 or 2019 Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane would be unemployed right now with how many picks they’ve missed on. 

[MJS]

11 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Hasn't he always played like this? 

Yes, and defenses are taking advantage of that. You have to be able to evolve your game.

[pocoboy]

10 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

When he takes the checkdowns   until the safeties move up, he’s unstoppable. 

 

One big trouble this season has been that he's not accurate on the open deep shots that are there. I wonder if they're trying so hard to run reps throwing short that he's not getting the reps to develop the timing over the top with his receivers.

Edited November 9, 2023 by pocoboy

[Malazan]

29 minutes ago, pocoboy said:

 

One big trouble this season has been that he's not accurate on the open deep shots that are there. I wonder if they're trying so hard to run reps throwing short that he's not getting the reps to develop the timing over the top with his receivers.

 

That's something that is most effective if it happens in the offseason prior to camp. It happened in 2020. I've not been aware that it's happened since. Prior to that Josh's deep ball accuracy was an issue and it's become more and more of an issue the further from 2020 we get. 

[Beck Water]

 

It may be a good analysis.  But wasn't Ben Solak the guy who said if Josh Allen succeeded as an NFL QB it would defeat math itself or something like that?

 

So keep your salt shaker handy.

 

But, the part about having guys open and taking the riskier throws instead of being patient and efficient, is what several of us have been saying most of the season.

 

27 minutes ago, Malazan said:

That's something that is most effective if it happens in the offseason prior to camp. It happened in 2020. I've not been aware that it's happened since. Prior to that Josh's deep ball accuracy was an issue and it's become more and more of an issue the further from 2020 we get. 

 

I think it has to do a fair bit with the receivers getting jammed up and held (uncalled). 

 

It was made a big issue in 2019.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Beck Water

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Not even film will convince you.  

I watch plenty of film 😂😂

 

But go ahead who's playing better rn

[Royale with Cheese]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I watch plenty of film 😂😂

 

But go ahead who's playing better rn

 

There's plenty of film where Allen is struggling. 

The league overall is struggling offensively.  I honestly don't think there is an elite offense right now.  But that doesn't mean that Allen and the Bills get a pass...they aren't scoring.  They aren't good on offense right now.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

There's plenty of film where Allen is struggling. 

The league overall is struggling offensively.  I honestly don't think there is an elite offense right now.  But that doesn't mean that Allen and the Bills get a pass...they aren't scoring.  They aren't good on offense right now.  

No no no don't do that

 

Make you claim. Who's playing better right now?

[The Firebaugh Kid]

14 hours ago, Success said:

Paralysis by analysis.

 

Everyone is overcomplicating things.  This team has better talent than most teams in the league, and one of the best QB's.

 

Know the secret?  They need to have fun again. It's a game. Play it loose.  Have fun.

 

I was just saying this to a friend. 

Dabolls scheme had alot more fun elements though, I wonder if they miss the jet sweeps, aggressive nature, and trickery. Loved watching Josh catch td passes etc. They seem pretty vanilla now. 

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No no no don't do that

 

Make you claim. Who's playing better right now?

 

What offense is playing better than the Bills right now?

 

Should we continue this discussion?  You already stated that nothing will convince you otherwise so why are talking about this then?

[Airseven]

3 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I’ve gotten a kick outta these threads…

 

evaluating

 

Allen he’s probably the most…

 

scrutinized

 

QB in the league as I never really have gotten the…

 

hatred

 

for the guy but maybe it was just predraft stuff like Nick Wright. 

Stick with evaluation. It’s fair. He’s not in a protective bubble.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

What offense is playing better than the Bills right now?

 

Should we continue this discussion?  You already stated that nothing will convince you otherwise so why are talking about this then?

Give it a shot, I'm not unreasonable

 

any QB playing better

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

14 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I don't want to see Josh take check-downs or play "efficient." Unleash the beast!

the last few games last year he was extremely inefficient, especially vs cinci. Enjoy! 

[DCOrange]

I think between this and Cover1's analysis, we're left with sort of a conundrum in terms of what you want in an offensive coordinator. Do you want to lean into what makes Allen who he is and create sort of a pedal to the medal offense that is very high risk-high reward in terms of the play design, or do you want a coach that can try to reign in some of the bad stuff (and likely some of the good stuff too) that comes along with Allen playing the way he wants?

 

I tend to lean towards the latter personally, which seems to be Dorsey's thinking as well but I think there's a very fair argument to be made in both directions. When I watch Solak's video, I tend to agree with his takeaways that Allen is making the wrong decision in a lot of cases (and the very damning stats re: his accuracy on deep balls this year definitely matches the eye test). Cover1 seems to place more of the blame on Dorsey, but it seems to me like a lot of the plays where he's blaming Dorsey are issues of Allen beginning the play by already reading the wrong side of the field or forcing passes instead of just taking the easy yards to keep the chains moving.

 

I definitely understand the frustrations that people are having with Dorsey though, but I also think a decent amount of it simply boils down to defenses playing a lot of two high looks to defend the deep ball while Allen simultaneously struggles to throw the deep ball and also wants to throw it deep as much as possible, which isn't really a great combination.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Give it a shot, I'm not unreasonable

 

any QB playing better

Burrow played much better last week for sure. 

[Royale with Cheese]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Give it a shot, I'm not unreasonable

 

any QB playing better

 

This is what's going to happen.

 

I'm going to give you QB's that have lead their offenses to scoring a good amount of points over the last few weeks.

 

You're going to respond that scoring is not an indicator of how well an offense is playing, advanced EPA stats are more important indicators.

 

Then it will go back and forth of me saying 20 ppg isn't good and you saying it is.  Doesn't sound like a good time does it? 

 

 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is what's going to happen.

 

I'm going to give you QB's that have lead their offenses to scoring a good amount of points over the last few weeks.

 

You're going to respond that scoring is not an indicator of how well an offense is playing, advanced EPA stats are more important indicators.

 

Then it will go back and forth of me saying 20 ppg isn't good and you saying it is.  Doesn't sound like a good time does it? 

 

 

Don't act.like you wouldn't like it 

 

 

[Shemp]

"I've got to be better."🤢

[Bruffalo]

15 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

The bottom line is that the tape doesn’t lie, but stats often do lie because there’s more to the story. Anybody who thinks that he hasn’t regressed since 2021 is just in denial, or maybe blind.

What changed after 2021 I wonder?  

 

Maybe the rookie OC who looks like he's calling plays out of a hat with no rhythm except for consistently calling a shotgun run that works 15% of the time? 

 

That tracks to me. Dorsey got figured out in the middle of last season and cannot or will not pivot in an effective way.