Efficient Offense Talk

[ngbills]

A lot of the talk all season has been about how efficient the offense has been. We see stats point out Josh high completion % and his QB rating. It is pointed out how many guys we have with the highest catch %. All of these efficiency metrics supposedly to show how great the offense is doing. Yet the team record, offensive production, "eye test", etc do not match this narrative. Until this week when the team has fallen to 5-4 many refused to admit the offense is an issue. 

 

I think the concept of efficiency is flawed and overhyped. You can create a efficient offense quite easily by dialing down your offense. You can create high completion %'s and high catch %'s by throwing short dump offs. Do these things translate to success? It does not appear so for the Bills. 

 

What you see is the higher number of plays to get down the field means more opportunities for setbacks. If your running 15-20 plays the odds of a sack, penalty, int or fumble all increase. This leads to more drives stalling out after moving the ball. How many times do you see the team drive to the opposing 30 and then we get a holding call that stalls the drive. A high powered offense can take the short stuff but hits the mid to deep plays as well. You cant rely on these long drives of 4 yard plays over and over again because when you get behind the sticks the D knows what your doing and that is what leads to the turnover or being stopped. The most successful big plays are usually on 1st and 10's or 2nd/3rd and shorts when the D is not expecting it. 

 

I dont know if this is a McD thing, a Dorsey thing or Bills analytics department thing. But who cares what the efficiency metrics say. This O has became way too predictable and needs to mix things up. If they cannot then a change needs to be made. 

[dorquemada]

Yeah I think we (collectively, as a civilization) have fallen way too much in love with quantifying every aspect, behavior, performance, and molecule under the sun.  Correlation does not equal causation, and so on.  Lies, damn lies, and statistics

[Jauronimo]

We have an efficient and repeatable system for not scoring enough points.  That much has been proven. But is that valuable?

 

Part of me misses the old offense.  It wasn't as efficient but it scored points and won games.  

Edited November 8, 2023 by Jauronimo

[dorquemada]

2 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

We have an efficient and repeatable system for not scoring enough points.  That much has been proven. But is that valuable?

 

Part of me misses the old offense.  It wasn't as efficient but it scored points and won games.  

 

The current offense is efficient in the sense that i dont have to watch the whole game any more

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

A lot of the talk all season has been about how efficient the offense has been. We see stats point out Josh high completion % and his QB rating. It is pointed out how many guys we have with the highest catch %. All of these efficiency metrics supposedly to show how great the offense is doing. Yet the team record, offensive production, "eye test", etc do not match this narrative. Until this week when the team has fallen to 5-4 many refused to admit the offense is an issue. 

 

I think the concept of efficiency is flawed and overhyped. You can create a efficient offense quite easily by dialing down your offense. You can create high completion %'s and high catch %'s by throwing short dump offs. Do these things translate to success? It does not appear so for the Bills. 

 

What you see is the higher number of plays to get down the field means more opportunities for setbacks. If your running 15-20 plays the odds of a sack, penalty, int or fumble all increase. This leads to more drives stalling out after moving the ball. How many times do you see the team drive to the opposing 30 and then we get a holding call that stalls the drive. A high powered offense can take the short stuff but hits the mid to deep plays as well. You cant rely on these long drives of 4 yard plays over and over again because when you get behind the sticks the D knows what your doing and that is what leads to the turnover or being stopped. The most successful big plays are usually on 1st and 10's or 2nd/3rd and shorts when the D is not expecting it. 

 

I dont know if this is a McD thing, a Dorsey thing or Bills analytics department thing. But who cares what the efficiency metrics say. This O has became way too predictable and needs to mix things up. If they cannot then a change needs to be made. 

I think this is why there are conflicting conclusions coming from the All-22 reviews:

 

1. The Cover 1/WGR-led narrative that Dorsey doesn't create "easy button" throws - then you see the All-22 and there is always a check-down available. 

 

2. We are missing chunk plays, but then you watch the All-22 and it's the same concepts over and over (mirrored routes, mesh, shotgun RPO, etc.) with evidence showing that the defense knows what is coming. 

 

3. Allen designed runs have been eliminated. 

 

4. The Bills don't utilize play action nearly as much as the statistics earlier in the year indicated they should. 

 

5. Less 4-wide spread than in the Daboll 2020 + 2021, in favor of 3x1's with tighter spacing. 

 

6. Limited to no modern motion concepts in the offense. 

 

7. The tempo starts to pick up and they move the ball, but then they stop because they want to change it up, or protect the defense. 

 

 

I think the problems in order are:

1. Talent past Diggs (but this is part of a larger problem in the organization where Beane has prioritized roster continuity)

 

2. Dorsey doesn't bring cutting edge scheme. 

 

3. There is a Personnel to Scheme mismatch to maximize Allen's talent. It feels like the Bills want Allen to be Tom Brady - the past two seasons giving him running backs, Tight Ends, and a ton of shorter slot WRs to throw to when he wants to throw to WRs who win 1 on 1. 

 

4. Allen is not disciplined to fully maximize his fitness, his preparation, and despite being told to constantly checkdown (see Brady/Jim Gray interview) he simply refuses to check down the entire game. He took the Harty deep shot for the same reason as Week 1 against the Jets, the offense is dinking and dunking and floundering and he loses patience and tries to make something happen. 

[Nihilarian]

Dislike saying it...Josh looking like he is regressing. 

 

I mean, how hard is it to move the ball 10 yards in 3 tries?

 

The Buffalo offense goes invisible for 3 quarters...why?

 

The team lacks discipline... and that's the HC.

 

The thing is... great teams can run the same plays over and over and few can stop them. They know what's coming and still can't stop it. You know, kinda like Mahomes to Kelce. 

[schoolhouserock]

1 hour ago, dorquemada said:

Yeah I think we (collectively, as a civilization) have fallen way too much in love with quantifying every aspect, behavior, performance, and molecule under the sun.  Correlation does not equal causation, and so on.  Lies, damn lies, and statistics

Easy to lie with statistics. Easier to lie without them.

[Mango]

6 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think this is why there are conflicting conclusions coming from the All-22 reviews:

 

1. The Cover 1/WGR-led narrative that Dorsey doesn't create "easy button" throws - then you see the All-22 and there is always a check-down available. 

 

 

The last C1 video is driving me nuts. He doesn't actually provide any proof to make the point he says he is making. And now everybody is parroting it.

 

35 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

2. We are missing chunk plays, but then you watch the All-22 and it's the same concepts over and over (mirrored routes, mesh, shotgun RPO, etc.) with evidence showing that the defense knows what is coming. 

 

I get it, but after a game like the Bengals, where guys are open we have no patience to hit the play that is available, I don't put a lot of weight in the idea the entire play/play call is bad. We didn't complete one pass between the first drive and the last drive of the half. Guys were open. The fix has to start there before I can get anywhere else. 

 

7 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

4. The Bills don't utilize play action nearly as much as the statistics earlier in the year indicated they should. 

 

35 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

7. The tempo starts to pick up and they move the ball, but then they stop because they want to change it up, or protect the defense. 

 

4 and 7 are more or less the same to me. This sort of erratic shifting of game plan is one of my biggest Dorsey complaints. More so than actual play design. 

 

 

33 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

5. Less 4-wide spread than in the Daboll 2020 + 2021, in favor of 3x1's with tighter spacing. 

 

Less concerned with the 3x1. More concerned with the spacing at times. I am curious if that is by design or execution error. We have a lot of execution errors, which I do pin on Dorsey. Some is on the player too. But when it is wide spread I think there is something going on internally at scale. 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

35 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think this is why there are conflicting conclusions coming from the All-22 reviews:

 

1. The Cover 1/WGR-led narrative that Dorsey doesn't create "easy button" throws - then you see the All-22 and there is always a check-down available. 

 

2. We are missing chunk plays, but then you watch the All-22 and it's the same concepts over and over (mirrored routes, mesh, shotgun RPO, etc.) with evidence showing that the defense knows what is coming. 

 

3. Allen designed runs have been eliminated. 

 

4. The Bills don't utilize play action nearly as much as the statistics earlier in the year indicated they should. 

 

5. Less 4-wide spread than in the Daboll 2020 + 2021, in favor of 3x1's with tighter spacing. 

 

6. Limited to no modern motion concepts in the offense. 

 

7. The tempo starts to pick up and they move the ball, but then they stop because they want to change it up, or protect the defense.

 

That isnt the narrative I got from watching the most recent Cover1 analysis.

 

From what I heard Erik say, Dorsey runs too much of the coverage-beater easy button throws, but then doesnt build anything on top of them such as a different play out of that same look to trick the Defense into giving up a big play.

 

We just run the same easy throw coverage beater over and over until the Defense figures it out and intercepts Josh (like exactly what happened on the INT from Sunday night).

 

Which leads right into your #2.

[dorquemada]

42 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

I think the problems in order are:

1. Talent past Diggs (but this is part of a larger problem in the organization where Beane has prioritized roster continuity)

 

2. Dorsey doesn't bring cutting edge scheme. 

 

3. There is a Personnel to Scheme mismatch to maximize Allen's talent. It feels like the Bills want Allen to be Tom Brady - the past two seasons giving him running backs, Tight Ends, and a ton of shorter slot WRs to throw to when he wants to throw to WRs who win 1 on 1. 

 

4. Allen is not disciplined to fully maximize his fitness, his preparation, and despite being told to constantly checkdown (see Brady/Jim Gray interview) he simply refuses to check down the entire game. He took the Harty deep shot for the same reason as Week 1 against the Jets, the offense is dinking and dunking and floundering and he loses patience and tries to make something happen. 

 

Yup.  McDingus decided the Bills should be a power running team with some elves at WR.  Almost any other offensive philosophy would be better.   He's so in love with his own infallibility that he can't consider for a second that he's actually a moron that should probably be working as a hype man for a 3rd tier nü metal band or maybe a circus

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

That isnt the narrative I got from watching the most recent Cover1 analysis.

 

From what I heard Erik say, Dorsey runs too much of the coverage-beater easy button throws, but then doesnt build anything on top of them such as a different play out of that same look to trick the Defense into giving up a big play.

 

We just run the same easy throw coverage beater over and over until the Defense figures it out and intercepts Josh (like exactly what happened on the INT from Sunday night).

 

Which leads right into your #2.

 

This is what I see it as - cover 2 zone beaters are designed to stress a player's zone.  But... that player, or the safety behind them, or the WLB, can adjust their coverages when they expect a hole shot, or a smash concept, or whatever.  Then we have receivers adjusting their routes based on leverage (as they are supposed to do), and the read gets all messed up because post-snap you aren't getting what you thought you would get.  

 

The intentional grounding is an example of this - its the same cover 2 hole shot play, but the corner follows him.  Davis stops his route... and is wide open.  Allen pre-snap wants the deep shot behind the corner and to the sideline so the safety can't get there.  If davis continues his route its likely very similar results to what we saw on the other play before.  

 

3 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

Yup.  McDingus decided the Bills should be a power running team with some elves at WR.  Almost any other offensive philosophy would be better.   He's so in love with his own infallibility that he can't consider for a second that he's actually a moron that should probably be working as a hype man for a 3rd tier nü metal band or maybe a circus

 

 

We play in buffalo - you have to be able to run the ball.  All the play action concepts work better when the linebackers think that we may actually hand it off.  Cincinnati did not believe that, so that part of the playbooks kind of worthless.  

Edited November 8, 2023 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[dorquemada]

18 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

We play in buffalo - you have to be able to run the ball.  All the play action concepts work better when the linebackers think that we may actually hand it off.  Cincinnati did not believe that, so that part of the playbooks kind of worthless.  

 

Great, everyone agrees we should be able to run the ball, so rather than building a competent OL and getting a power running back, we get a scat back and a bunch of oafs on OL.  Glad they spent some capital this year to bring in a couple better guys but they still can't run the ball.  Oh, and whomever Spencer Brown has pictures of should probably just take their medicine so we can move on.  McD wants this team to be everything that it isnt

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

2 hours ago, dorquemada said:

 

The current offense is efficient in the sense that i dont have to watch the whole game any more

You sound like a veteran Bills fan.  I too feel pretty confident when I can adjust my attention away from the game.  After the Bengals went up 21-10, switched the game to my phone and tackled some work stuff...even when it got close at the end, I never believed a win was imminent.  

 

Even if the Bills did pull out a win though, I'm not sure it would have inspired much more confidence in how the rest of the season would play out.

[dorquemada]

7 minutes ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:

You sound like a veteran Bills fan.  I too feel pretty confident when I can adjust my attention away from the game.  After the Bengals went up 21-10, switched the game to my phone and tackled some work stuff...even when it got close at the end, I never believed a win was imminent.  

 

Even if the Bills did pull out a win though, I'm not sure it would have inspired much more confidence in how the rest of the season would play out.

 

You called it BIGFOOT.  I've been a fan for a long time, and pretty much have lost faith in the current team, or at least the HC and OC. Regardless of if they are able to stumble into the playoffs it'll be a short stay.  I'd say it would be better to fight for a higher draft pick but I don't have any confidence they would do anything smart with it, probably another tweener DL or flyweight CB

[PatsFanNH]

2 hours ago, ngbills said:

A lot of the talk all season has been about how efficient the offense has been. We see stats point out Josh high completion % and his QB rating. It is pointed out how many guys we have with the highest catch %. All of these efficiency metrics supposedly to show how great the offense is doing. Yet the team record, offensive production, "eye test", etc do not match this narrative. Until this week when the team has fallen to 5-4 many refused to admit the offense is an issue. 

 

I think the concept of efficiency is flawed and overhyped. You can create a efficient offense quite easily by dialing down your offense. You can create high completion %'s and high catch %'s by throwing short dump offs. Do these things translate to success? It does not appear so for the Bills. 

 

What you see is the higher number of plays to get down the field means more opportunities for setbacks. If your running 15-20 plays the odds of a sack, penalty, int or fumble all increase. This leads to more drives stalling out after moving the ball. How many times do you see the team drive to the opposing 30 and then we get a holding call that stalls the drive. A high powered offense can take the short stuff but hits the mid to deep plays as well. You cant rely on these long drives of 4 yard plays over and over again because when you get behind the sticks the D knows what your doing and that is what leads to the turnover or being stopped. The most successful big plays are usually on 1st and 10's or 2nd/3rd and shorts when the D is not expecting it. 

 

I dont know if this is a McD thing, a Dorsey thing or Bills analytics department thing. But who cares what the efficiency metrics say. This O has became way too predictable and needs to mix things up. If they cannot then a change needs to be made. 

All I would say to that is the only stat that matters is the number of points they score a game, and the last 5 games the highest they have scored is 25 points.. that’s sub par for the Bills. 

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

All I would say to that is the only stat that matters is the number of points they score a game, and the last 5 games the highest they have scored is 25 points.. that’s sub par for the Bills. 

Lol

 

Way to make a completely arbitrary cutoff at last 5 games the 'only stat that matters'

[Jrb1979]

28 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Lol

 

Way to make a completely arbitrary cutoff at last 5 games the 'only stat that matters'

You want to go back to the beginning of the season. In the 9 games they have played only 3 of them have the scored more than 24 points. Those 3 games makes the offense look better than they actually are. 

[GoBills808]

36 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

You want to go back to the beginning of the season. In the 9 games they have played only 3 of them have the scored more than 24 points. Those 3 games makes the offense look better than they actually are. 

Yes if you take out our best games it will look much worse

[Jrb1979]

18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes if you take out our best games it will look much worse

My point is they have had way more bad games on offense than good. 

[frostbitmic]

While watching the game Sunday night I was thinking how boring this offense is, I've never thought that with Josh Allen as QB before.