Some All-22 Observations from Cinci

[HoofHearted]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I have another question for @HoofHearted

 

on the INT, is Davis supposed to read DB outside leverage and stem/stack w inside release vs that coverage? It almost looks like Allen expects that which is why he pumps it once before yoloing the hole shot

No, it's an MOR (Mandatory Outside Release) route. Josh just tried to hit the hole shot into Cover 2 and underthrew it. This has been a recurring theme for him this year.

[boyst]

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Thanks @Einstein

 

Your point on the running game is maddening…. As @boyst suggested, we need to be able to run the ball vs those 2 high, six man boxes. Tough game up front for the hogs, so we need to be able to pivot. Any horizontal running game does not exist as well. Frustrating. 
 

I would have loved to see some old school zone read. You want to put pressure on those force defenders? Put Kincaid in motion in concert with the QB. 

We did a lot of motion last year. We did even more the two years prior. We put Josh under center and had motion for a reason: he plays better that Way 

[Scott7975]

9 hours ago, Simon said:

 

There's a safety over the top that is just outside the edge of this photo.

It was a stare-down with a bonus double clutch, to a covered receiver in a vertical bracket with no window.

That ball was doomed before it even left his hand.

 

Disagree. Josh makes that throw against the same coverage quite a bit. Just that everyone cheers when its a TD or 20-30 yard gain. They don't question the decision.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

Haven’t had a chance to spin through the A22 outside of finding a few snaps that I saw posted on here so I can’t really say for the Bengals game. I will say we do have quite a few concepts that aren’t full field reads (zone beater one side and man beater the other) so the notion that there’s not full field cohesion of routes is real but it’s intentional. May be able to spin through some stuff tomorrow and have a better answer for you.

The overhang (conflict defender who was the read) was the DB who folded in to make the tackle. He was so wide initially that the read was essentially predetermined as long as he stayed there. Yeah we’ve run a couple of RPO off of Dart this year both left and right with Dawkins or Brown pulling - can’t remember exactly which games they were in but I remember commenting on it on here when they did. Gabe got a really good gain on one of them at or close to the High RZ area on one of them.

 

I wished you had the time to do what cover 1 does.  Id watch that all day over them.  It's obvious you know what the hell you are talking about.  I think those guys are ok but not to the extent of your knowledge.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Scott7975

[Mango]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Safety isn't an issue imo he's too deep to effect throw

 

this is at moment of int and hes still 10yards off

 

 

i agree w einstein this was simply a miss

I think both are true. I think the secret sauce is that Josh did get the DB to stutter just enough with the pump fake that it opened the window just enough, but needed a better throw. C1 didn’t give him credit for but Josh created the separation there. At game speed I think the safety was still an issue though. At the very least he left a narrow window for success.
 

I disliked that decision based on the situation. The defense couldn’t get off the field, we just came off a short drive, and we already threw one away the play before on first to stretch the defense. We needed to flip the field and sustain the drive. Taking a low percentage throw with a couple other high success available was a bad choice. 
 

If he completed that one with a better throw; for me would be one of those “just because you can doesn’t mean you should”.  That was a boom or bust choice where we needed to get ahead of the sticks. 
 

Now if we didn’t waste the throw to Harty on 1st and we were 2nd and 4, I wouldn’t hate an incompletion there because we’d be left with a manageable 3rd.  

9 hours ago, ngbills said:

Non All 22 analysis:

 

Opening drive - Diggs 2 targets for 2 catches and 43 yards

Next 4 drives in first half - Diggs 0 targets for 0 catches for 0 yards

 

2nd Half Opening drive - Diggs 3 targets for 3 catches and 26 yards

Next 3 drives - Diggs 2 targets for 1 catch and 17 yards

 

So on the two scripted drive Diggs has 5 targets for 5 catches and 69 yards

On the 7 non-scripted drives its 2 targets for 1 catch and 17 yards.

 

What gives? 

Worth noting that the Bills didn’t complete a single pass after the TD until 1:37 in the half. 
 

This one wasn’t a “get Diggs involved” issue. We couldn’t run or pass the ball for like 4 minutes of possession. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think both are true. I think the secret sauce is that Josh did get the DB to stutter just enough with the pump fake that it opened the window just enough, but needed a better throw. C1 didn’t give him credit for but Josh created the separation there. At game speed I think the safety was still an issue though. At the very least he left a narrow window for success.
 

I disliked that decision based on the situation. The defense couldn’t get off the field, we just came off a short drive, and we already threw one away the play before on first to stretch the defense. We needed to flip the field and sustain the drive. Taking a low percentage throw with a couple other high success available was a bad choice. 
 

If he completed that one with a better throw; for me would be one of those “just because you can doesn’t mean you should”.  That was a boom or bust choice where we needed to get ahead of the sticks. 
 

Now if we didn’t waste the throw to Harty on 1st and we were 2nd and 4, I wouldn’t hate an incompletion there because we’d be left with a manageable 3rd.  

I watched an interview w Cam Taylor Britt postgame and he said he baited Allen into the throw by pretending like he was going to drive on Diggs curl when Allen pumps. Which I mean...yes, it worked and you got the INT, but mostly because it was a bad throw.

[78thealltimegreat]

9 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I'm as confused as you are, especially since continuity was the buzzword when they promoted Dorsey. Other than Dorsey and maybe Cole Beasley, I can't think of anything major that would have changed on this offense. Were there some key position coaches that left that did more than we realized?

 

At the risk of sounding conspiratorial, I wonder if Josh's personal life is part of the reason? He breaks up with his childhood sweetheart, then hooks up with a Hollywood starlet on the rebound, He's on a ton of commercials now. Then there's that interview in the offseason where Josh admits to taking it easy. It made me raise an eyebrow. All this could be nothing. But I think we have transitioned from hungry-driven-disrespected Josh to everyone-kissing-his-ass Josh. Is he still as driven as he once was?

Considering people were literally throwing his jersey on the ground two years ago after he lost at home to Pittsburgh I honestly would never blame him for taking every commercial and opportunity available to him. 

[Richard Noggin]

6 hours ago, Airseven said:

#2 is hilarious. Torrence passed the DT off to Allen!

 

Sincere tip o' the cap to you, sir: for no one extracts quite as much satisfaction from Bills dysfunction as you do. You knew it all along, you clairvoyant rascal. 

 

So fun to kick dirt on your alleged favorite team at the halfway hinge of the season when they're half a game out of the division lead. DO you even still allege to be a fan of the Bills above all other NFL teams? 

 

(Remember in 2021 when it took you and your ilk all the way until week 13 to really, finally get the majority of Bills fans to recognize your predictive brilliance? Man, the Bills were terrible that season. Definitely no way they were gonna regroup and win the division and explode offensively in the playoffs (minus 3rd quarter vs Chiefs). Definitely no way that year's championship window was open the widest. Of course, ultimately you get to take comfort in the Billsy collapse of 13 seconds. You get to lord that loss over Bills fans here on this forum. Cheers to your most objective predictions.) 

[Richard Noggin]

2 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

No, it's an MOR (Mandatory Outside Release) route. Josh just tried to hit the hole shot into Cover 2 and underthrew it. This has been a recurring theme for him this year.

 

He also stared it down like a tractor beam. Nothing much to misdirect savvy NFL DBs. 

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

He also stared it down like a tractor beam. Nothing much to misdirect savvy NFL DBs. 

there are two reads there, half field package. He's just as likely looking at Diggs quick out as Davis

 

mechanically lower body was poor after the pump and thus the throw was similar. Little to do w staring anything down imo

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

there are two reads there, half field package. He's just as likely looking at Diggs quick out as Davis

 

mechanically lower body was poor after the pump and thus the throw was similar. Little to do w staring anything down imo

 

 

 

But isn't the stare down what drags (or at least entices) the intercepting DB off his potential shallower responsibilities deeper, into Davis' shadow? 

[HoofHearted]

8 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I wished you had the time to do what cover 1 does.  Id watch that all day over them.  It's obvious you know what the hell you are talking about.  I think those guys are ok but not to the extent of your knowledge.

Appreciate that. Wish I could do more as well.  I was considering starting a thread just for breaking down plays you guys wanted to know more on, but wasn’t sure how much it’d be utilized.

7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

He also stared it down like a tractor beam. Nothing much to misdirect savvy NFL DBs. 

To be fair to Josh, and for full clarity here, his read is the corner so yeah from the broadcast it looks like he was just staring at Gabe.

[Buckets]

18 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Bills did a good job of ditching the run in this game IMO. 

 

It wasn't going to work. 

 

On point #3 - again - we've kicked it around a lot on here, who else is on the roster that can reliably get open? To this point the Bills have found Shakir, and he's catching the ball thrown to him at 92% rate. So if Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir are staples, that really only leaves me with a few options left that I can think of:

 

1. Flat out take Gabe Davis off the field more and trust that Harty can win out wide. 

 

2. Begin a rotation with Gabe Davis, taking him off and mixing in Harty and Sherfield. 

 

3. Dump consistently to the backs - Cook, Ty Johnson, Murray, and Fournette - Allen has shown he will not do this reliably/methodically. Bills have tried to push this for the past two seasons. 

 

4. Go back to 12 personnel with Kincaid and Morris, but this probably starts eating into Shakir's snaps, and why is that a good thing? 

 

5. Start utilizing 4-wide again and just get some rotations going - moving Diggs around, putting Shakir out wide, then Harty, then Gabe back out wide, splitting Kincaid out wide, or in the slot on a spread look. I don't know that those slot-usuals can play outside, but some 4-wide looks in place of the condensed 3x1 RPO looks might be beneficial. 

Guys are open, Josh just isn't putting the ball where it's catchable, or throwing it late allowing the DB time to recover.

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

Appreciate that. Wish I could do more as well.  I was considering starting a thread just for breaking down plays you guys wanted to know more on, but wasn’t sure how much it’d be utilized.

 

I think that thread would be massive popular here. Look at how much everyone talks about the cover 1 stuff around here and when Einstein or a couple others throw some stuff up.  People love seeing plays broke down and ones like me that aren't so smart love hearing/reading how it supposed to work. Honestly some of it is still over my head because I had some brain damage but I still like it.  As long as it isn't like wall of text jargon I don't understand.

[HoofHearted]

On 11/7/2023 at 2:56 PM, HappyDays said:

 

Do you agree with some of the coaching/schematic concerns noted in this thread and others? Lack of cohesion to the route progressions, failure to layer concepts off top of each other, failure to scheme players open, predictable scheming etc. Or do you think it is still more player execution than anything? I just can't figure out how we'll go 5+ drives at a time looking like a completely hopeless offense, sandwiched in between unstoppable drives.

After watching, Dorsey did scheme Diggs open multiple times that game. I don’t think we’re doing enough of it. He relies so heavily on our route conversions getting guys open, but when guys fail to execute them properly it’s an issue, and that’s everyone.
 

Dorsey schemed Diggs into a 1v1 vs a backer and he cut inside vs inside leverage instead of cutting outside like he should have. Josh anticipated the outside cut and was lucky to hold onto the ball when he pumped because he was anticipating the outbreaking route.

 

Josh is also holding onto the ball too long still and not just dumping it down and letting guys get what they get. It puts us behind the sticks or doesn’t give us a chance on a lot of 3rd downs.

 

I’ll make a big post later with all my thoughts from the game.

Edited November 8, 2023 by HoofHearted

[Ramza86]

You know what the saddest thing is?

 

There have been many of us the have been screaming for an offensive line as a priority to get this offense in a place where it can be near greatness....

 

from that god awful 2018 line to 2023....almost nothing has changed. All we have done is poured money into our defense only to watch them consistently get picked apart by any good QB. 

 

So the direction of this team has been greatly mishandled.

[Einstein]

12 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

 

Josh is also holding onto the ball too long still and not just dumping it down and letting guys get what they get. It puts us behind the sticks or doesn’t give us a chance on a lot of 3rd downs.

 

'm sure you've seen it, but watch the endzone view of the ALL-22 and he is not even seeing/looking the dump down option. He is keeping his eyes downfield.

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Dorsey schemed Diggs into a 1v1 vs a backer and he cut inside vs inside leverage instead of cutting outside like he should have. Josh anticipated the outside cut and was lucky to hold onto the ball when he pumped because he was anticipating the outbreaking route.

 

This issue happens way too frequently with us. I don't get it. I don't see other offenses regularly throw the ball to nobody because the WR and the QB didn't read the play the same way. With us it's at least once a game, sometimes more. I don't exclusively blame Dorsey because I had the same complaint when Daboll was our OC. I wonder if we are over relying on these option routes in our scheme? Or is the coaching not preparing the players properly to read these plays? With all the other issues our offense has, that issue in particular feels very annoying because it should be an easy fix and we're instead going on year 4 of the same problem.

[HoofHearted]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

'm sure you've seen it, but watch the endzone view of the ALL-22 and he is not even seeing/looking the dump down option. He is keeping his eyes downfield.

Yep, and there’s nothing to be had - just take the easy throw and move on. It’s infuriating.

[Einstein]

 

16 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

He also stared it down like a tractor beam. Nothing much to misdirect savvy NFL DBs. 

Not really.

He had 2 reads there - Diggs and Davis.
 

Honestly he just underthrew it. 
 

A proper throw and that's a 30 yard gain.