Cover 1 breakdown of the Dorsey offense

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

A couple things on this:

 

1) Careful with the win probability calculator in general. It isn't always entirely accurate IMO, and certainly not always instructive. To use one example that actually works in favor of your argument, removing >90% win probability eliminates pretty much the entire 2nd half of our Bucs game. I'm sure you agree our offense in the 2nd half was not sufficient and being >90% win probability was not a good excuse for most of that half. The same thing is happening in reverse when you remove <10% win probability. Using this formula, you would say for example the Patriots team that won the infamous 28-3 Super Bowl had an abysmal offense in that game.

 

TLDR: Don't confuse high/low win probability with garbage time. I don't think anyone would agree that we have played any measurable amount of garbage time over the past 4 weeks outside of end of game kneeldowns. If you disagree, let me know what garbage time you think we've played in recent weeks.

 

2) 

 

Our offense is getting no help from the defense or special teams. This was especially true in the Bengals game for example. When we lose field position and time of possession that badly, even a decently efficient offense is going to have trouble scoring a lot of points.

 

To be clear I don't think our offense is performing as well as it could, but the efficiency stats are what they are. Everything has to be evaluated within the right framework of context.

 

very good

 

and to be very clear- i am not saying the offense is performing great rn

 

im saying the issues w this team are more complex than offense sux

[CincyBillsFan]

16 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I mean, I don't really care about any of that.  I care that our offense has not performed to standards.  I don't care what EPA shows.  It has not performed to standards. They are not scoring for big chunks of the game.  Over the last 5 weeks this offense has not put up points.  Thats just a fact no matter what advanced metrics anyone wants to show, it won't change that.  The Bills need to do better.  If you don't see this offense as being bad over the last 5 weeks you are either blind or delusional.  (not saying you as in actually you.)

But what are the standards that an offense with an elite QB and one elite WR should set?  An offense that has a below average O line (maybe way below), skill players that are average at best (sure Kincaid is on an upwards trajectory), coaches that are not considered top of the line offensive minds and a franchise that is focused first on its defense? My expectations are that we're getting exactly what we built on offense.  

 

During the critical 2019, 2020, 2021 & 2022 seasons in which the current Bills team was created the defense received the lions share of the draft & FA capitol.  During this time the Bills made ONLY ONE big move to improve their offense:  trading for Diggs which has been a home run. With the possible exception of Morse (who had concussion issues) EVERY offensive FA  signing has been a reach or an over the hill/back up player.  Ditto the draft where during those four years the Bills favored the D in a ridiculous way with the highest offensive picks being in round 2 in two of the four drafts.

 

Yes, the Bills started to change course this year and used a 1st & 2nd round to pick offensive guys. Kincaid looks on his way to being an elite play maker while Torrenze beat out the previous seasons starting guard.  Imagine how good our O would be today if we flipped the draft & FA signing over the last 4 years to favor the offense?

 

 

[Jauronimo]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

A couple things on this:

 

1) Careful with the win probability calculator in general. It isn't always entirely accurate IMO, and certainly not always instructive. To use one example that actually works in favor of your argument, removing >90% win probability eliminates pretty much the entire 2nd half of our Bucs game. I'm sure you agree our offense in the 2nd half was not sufficient and being >90% win probability was not a good excuse for most of that half. The same thing is happening in reverse when you remove <10% win probability. Using this formula, you would say for example the Patriots team that won the infamous 28-3 Super Bowl had an abysmal offense in that game.

 

TLDR: Don't confuse high/low win probability with garbage time. I don't think anyone would agree that we have played any measurable amount of garbage time over the past 4 weeks outside of end of game kneeldowns. If you disagree, let me know what garbage time you think we've played in recent weeks.

 

2) 

 

Our offense is getting no help from the defense or special teams. This was especially true in the Bengals game for example. When we lose field position and time of possession that badly, even a decently efficient offense is going to have trouble scoring a lot of points.

 

To be clear I don't think our offense is performing as well as it could, but the efficiency stats are what they are. Everything has to be evaluated within the right framework of context.

 

The offense could maintain drives and score points which would help with TOP.  They aren't doing our ***** defense any favors with 3 and outs and turning the ball over inside their own 30. 

 

It was a fine start to the season except for where Zach Wilson once again out dueled our franchise QB, but that team is no longer with us.  This current offense is middle of the pack at best.  When you have a supposed top 3 QB, that is completely unacceptable.

[T master]

On 11/7/2023 at 10:46 AM, Scott7975 said:

IMO (still) Dorsey is the problem

 

Edit: sorry @HappyDays I just noticed you posted this in the Dorsey thread.  I didn't see it because sometimes when I click a thread it skips a page or two that I haven't read yet.  Mods can delete if they want.

 

 

 

I had to quit watching every play there are other players sometimes multiple players open that Josh could hit and make better yards but he isn't seeing it or looking that way . Almost like he's locked on to that 1 route .

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, T master said:

 

I had to quit watching every play there are other players sometimes multiple players open that Josh could hit and make better yards but he isn't seeing it or looking that way . Almost like he's locked on to that 1 route .

Maybe turn the volume on and listen to what he says instead

5 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

But what are the standards that an offense with an elite QB and one elite WR should set?  An offense that has a below average O line (maybe way below), skill players that are average at best (sure Kincaid is on an upwards trajectory), coaches that are not considered top of the line offensive minds and a franchise that is focused first on its defense? My expectations are that we're getting exactly what we built on offense.  

 

During the critical 2019, 2020, 2021 & 2022 seasons in which the current Bills team was created the defense received the lions share of the draft & FA capitol.  During this time the Bills made ONLY ONE big move to improve their offense:  trading for Diggs which has been a home run. With the possible exception of Morse (who had concussion issues) EVERY offensive FA  signing has been a reach or an over the hill/back up player.  Ditto the draft where during those four years the Bills favored the D in a ridiculous way with the highest offensive picks being in round 2 in two of the four drafts.

 

Yes, the Bills started to change course this year and used a 1st & 2nd round to pick offensive guys. Kincaid looks on his way to being an elite play maker while Torrenze beat out the previous seasons starting guard.  Imagine how good our O would be today if we flipped the draft & FA signing over the last 4 years to favor the offense?

 

 

 

Im all for getting better players and coaches but lets not act like we have the worst group in the league.  Our oline is at least average.  Davis is at least average. Kincaid is above average.  Shakir has caught and made plays with just about every ball thrown his way.  I don't know what he is but he is making the most of his opportunities. Cook is good. Josh and Diggs are elite.  I expect at least top 10.  Last season we had a bad game here and there but it wasn't this 5 game in a row ***** show and we had worse players.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Maybe turn the volume on and listen to what he says instead

 

Im all for getting better players and coaches but lets not act like we have the worst group in the league.  Our oline is at least average.  Davis is at least average. Kincaid is above average.  Shakir has caught and made plays with just about every ball thrown his way.  I don't know what he is but he is making the most of his opportunities. Cook is good. Josh and Diggs are elite.  I expect at least top 10.  Last season we had a bad game here and there but it wasn't this 5 game in a row ***** show and we had worse players.

I didn't say we had the worst group in the league but we do have the worst group among the legitimate Super Bowl contenders. 

 

On offense, I would say the following contenders either have better skill players and/or a better O line then the Bills: Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bengal's, Ravens, Lions, Jags, 49's, Dolphins. 

 

Now let's look at offensive coaching and franchise philosophy (where does the team put the majority o their FA & Draft capitol) which I believe go hand in hand.  These contenders are better then the Bills:  Bengals, Chiefs, Dolphins, 49's, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Jags, 49's.

 

 

[Scott7975]

6 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I didn't say we had the worst group in the league but we do have the worst group among the legitimate Super Bowl contenders. 

 

On offense, I would say the following contenders either have better skill players and/or a better O line then the Bills: Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bengal's, Ravens, Lions, Jags, 49's, Dolphins. 

 

Now let's look at offensive coaching and franchise philosophy (where does the team put the majority o their FA & Draft capitol) which I believe go hand in hand.  These contenders are better then the Bills:  Bengals, Chiefs, Dolphins, 49's, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Jags, 49's.

 

 

 

Not sure I agree with all that but its too early for me to argue.  I know its not actually early but my sleep schedule is all over the place so I just woke up.  I'll think about this later and come back.  I will start with the Bills skill players are way better than the Chiefs right now.  All those guys do is drop footballs and Kelce is old and was hobbled most of the season.  Dolphins have a couple guys and we have a couple guys.  Some of those olines are about the same.  Our QB is better than some of those QBs.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Scott7975

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 11/7/2023 at 1:20 PM, GoBills808 said:

 

Phew… they’re not winning but at least they have a good position on this chart.