Cover 1 breakdown of the Dorsey offense

[GoBills808]

26 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Put Cook on Miami and he's averaging 7-8 yards per carry.

Very possible imo

 

We haven't had a productive run game in 5years

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

The one thing I have noticed just using the eye test is it seems like Allen is only using half the field most of the time. High low reads or low high reads to half the field. Very rookie QB stuff. This video supports that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did you watch the video and listen to what Erik was saying? He indicates that most offenses provide more concepts in each half of the field that have a stronger chance of coming open.  Dorsey's offense largely stresses efficiency without as many opportunities for Josh to really push it down the field.  Erik's probably watched exponentially more film than all of us and what he says is that most offenses give their QBs the chance to see multiple WRs in his field of vision without having to fully turn their head to the opposite side of the field.

 

That doesn't mean Josh never does it and that other QBs don't.  What it means is that it's smart scheming to put multiple routes that are likely to come open in the QBs field of vision and Dorsey's offense doesn't really do that.

[somnus00]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

People who already didn't like McD just want to assign the offensive blame to him to pile on their case against him.  But the reality is, offensively, Dorsey is the substantial problem.  But if McD and Beane don't find the balls to fire Dorsey then Dosey is probably going to take at least one of them down with him at a later date.  

 

FIRE DORSEY already!  The offense has been searching for an identity for a year and a half, its pathetic Dorsey still can't establish one.  

I agree with this. Of course, we are all speculating because no one from TSW is in One Bills Drive every day, but McD seems frustrated by the offense as well. He's getting production out of a patchwork defense, meanwhile the healthy offense (with generational talent at QB) is sputtering along.

 

McD isn't going to publicly throw Dorsey under the bus, but before the Bucs game, McD said at this point, the offense should have an identity and you should know what your guys are good at. Then they came out up-tempo, throwing it to different guys and finally getting Kincaid his first TD.

 

It makes no sense that McD would purposely sandbag the offense. None. No coach ever said, "This offense is just too good, slow it down."

 

I get it, we're all pissed off about this teams performance. And ultimately, it's on McD to get this turned around. But to assign him blame for the offenses current stuggles is just misguided. But I understand the anger behind the blaming. I'm pissed off as well.

[schoolhouserock]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Oh god not more epa garbage.  Wake the hell up.  IDGAF what our epa says.  We scored 18 points. EPA don't mean jack. 18 points and two turnovers.  You pull out epa.  If anything epa should show you this week is that epa is garbage and doesn't reflect what actually happened.

I always bristle at this kind of take. EPA is showing exactly what it was designed to show. This is a very efficient offense. Therefore, not garbage.

 

I would love to see some sort of metric that aims to capture the rhythm of an offense. The Bills might be dead last in such a stat.

Edited November 7, 2023 by schoolhouserock

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Put Cook on Miami and he's averaging 7-8 yards per carry.

 

I dunno.  I like Cook and I think Cook has been our best back since we started drafting them.  I think he can be explosive too.  Its just weird though.  I look at guys like Pachecho and Achane and the other guy (I probably butchered their names sorry) and they look fast af with the ball.  When Cook gets the ball he doesn't look as fast as I expect him to look.  I know he fast too but he just doesn't look it.  I dunno if it's just in my head or what.

[Scott7975]

37 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Did you watch the video and listen to what Erik was saying? He indicates that most offenses provide more concepts in each half of the field that have a stronger chance of coming open.  Dorsey's offense largely stresses efficiency without as many opportunities for Josh to really push it down the field.  Erik's probably watched exponentially more film than all of us and what he says is that most offenses give their QBs the chance to see multiple WRs in his field of vision without having to fully turn their head to the opposite side of the field.

 

That doesn't mean Josh never does it and that other QBs don't.  What it means is that it's smart scheming to put multiple routes that are likely to come open in the QBs field of vision and Dorsey's offense doesn't really do that.

 

I don't think people realize how hard it is to look at both sides of the field like that because turning head seems simple.  It isn't so simple when you only have 2.5 seconds to read one side then read the other. Even less so when you have big bodies in your face.

[Dan]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

To me this analysis shows the Bills have changed to a system offense that is predictable and too easy for defenses to read.

 

They have become productive in gaining yards but stale.

 

I am becoming a believer in the idea that Dorsey is the wrong coach.

I’ve been thinking this since mid last season. There’s been 2 things that have kept Dorsey and the Status Quo going since then:

 

1. Josh.  He’s such a dynamic athlete that he can make chicken salad out of chicken *****.  Look at the play where the 2 receivers run into each other and fall down…  Josh keeps the play alive long enough to let Kincaid get up and hit him for a first down.  Great play design!  ..not

 

2.  Against the weaker, incompetent teams; they rack up the stats and points. This keeps them in the top 5 of all key offensive statistics.  So when they self scout and say… what needs to change on offense… they look at the stats and say… nothing. Just need to execute. Blah blah.  But as pointed out in this video, Dorsey is relying on perfection for the offense to succeed.  Perfect passes, perfect reads, routes, blocks, perfect everything… and against the better teams; that doesn’t cut it. 
 

Hence we win more than we lose and run up the stats. Then get in the big games and fall flat against better players and coaches.  
 

They need to make a change.  Now or at the end of the season… I’m not sure it matters.  

[GoBills808]

44 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Did you watch the video and listen to what Erik was saying? He indicates that most offenses provide more concepts in each half of the field that have a stronger chance of coming open.  Dorsey's offense largely stresses efficiency without as many opportunities for Josh to really push it down the field.  Erik's probably watched exponentially more film than all of us and what he says is that most offenses give their QBs the chance to see multiple WRs in his field of vision without having to fully turn their head to the opposite side of the field.

 

That doesn't mean Josh never does it and that other QBs don't.  What it means is that it's smart scheming to put multiple routes that are likely to come open in the QBs field of vision and Dorsey's offense doesn't really do that.

I dispute this. There are a lot of plays I see us run w half field type reads that bring multiple options into vision

 

 

[Dablitzkrieg]

Let me give you the cliff notes.  Both Dorsey and McDermott have overstayed their welcome.  

 

This is what will happen.  McDermott is going to fire Dorsey in the offseason, he will not do it in season.

 

Lastly, Josh Allen needs to shave his head. Josh will instantly play better.

[Scott7975]

32 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

I always bristle at this kind of take. EPA is showing exactly what it was designed to show. This is a very efficient offense. Therefore, not garbage.

 

I would love to see some sort of metric that aims to capture the rhythm of an offense. The Bills might be dead last in such a stat.

 

EPA doesn't show the actual offense.  You can get good expected points added all game long but if you aren't scoring points it doesn't matter. If the offense got 4 yards on first down and 5 yards on second down that's pretty good epa.  If they then throw an incompletion on 3rd down and punt, those first two plays were still good epa but we no longer have the ball and its a failed drive.  We can start a drive on our own 10 and Allen could throw a 20 yard pass and we would get good EPA. He could then go 3 and out from there and its still a failed drive.

 

The stat is more so "what was the teams chance to score" than "did the team actually score."

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

EPA doesn't show the actual offense.  You can get good expected points added all game long but if you aren't scoring points it doesn't matter. If the offense got 4 yards on first down and 5 yards on second down that's pretty good epa.  If they then throw an incompletion on 3rd down and punt, those first two plays were still good epa but we no longer have the ball and its a failed drive.  We can start a drive on our own 10 and Allen could throw a 20 yard pass and we would get good EPA. He could then go 3 and out from there and its still a failed drive.

 

The stat is more so "what was the teams chance to score" than "did the team actually score."

that's not exactly how epa is calculated, it's a per play metric vs expected outcomes on average

 

https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/

[Nihilarian]

Buffalo was clearly out-coached in the game. The Bills play reactive instead of proactive.

 

The Bengals look at the weakness of the team and attack on both sides of the ball. Sure, the bills are going to bracket Chase. So they pull some TEs off the practice squad and attack you with players you have no film on. How pathetic.

 

On offense, Bills OC Ken Dorsey used all his tricks up against the Raiders, Commanders, and Dolphins. Now teams know what's coming and even bad teams like the Patriots, and Giants give them fits. Buffalo was lucky to beat the NY Giants and Buccaneers.

 

The Buffalo offense needs to remove its cranium from its posterior ...that begins with Dorsey growing a brain with some innovation. 

 

Use more Play action and actually work the run game. Their biggest excuse was OH, we were down 21-7...we can't run...what bullcrap. 

[Scott7975]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

that's not exactly how epa is calculated, it's a per play metric vs expected outcomes on average

 

https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/

 

Yes, I know I don't have the full gist of understanding it but I have brain problems. What I do understand is that I don't care if we had the best EPA in the league this week if we only put up 18 points in a loss.

[GoBills808]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes, I know I don't have the full gist of understanding it but I have brain problems. What I do understand is that I don't care if we had the best EPA in the league this week if we only put up 18 points in a loss.

😂😂i have those too lol

 

I just bring it up because sometimes I think we get in our Bills bubble w out considering how the rest of the league also deals w these issues

 

like Miami and KC are also very good offenses, just played each other and one put up 14 (won) and the other 14 and lost

 

the NFL is weird

[Scott7975]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

😂😂i have those too lol

 

I just bring it up because sometimes I think we get in our Bills bubble w out considering how the rest of the league also deals w these issues

 

like Miami and KC are also very good offenses, just played each other and one put up 14 (won) and the other 14 and lost

 

the NFL is weird

 

On that we agree.  If these were single games then I wouldn't think much of it.  Unfortunately this is a 5 game stretch of them now.  Although I will say that KC has practically mirrored our bad offense this year.  They aren't the same team they were either.  Their defense has been pretty damn good this year though.

[Mango]

I am struggling to understand that the start of the video spent the first ~5:00 talking about the built in checks in cover 2, quarters, etc. only to end that portion with "We can see that the efficient plays are there. But Josh wants to throw the ball downfield.  Again there are multiple options all over the field. But that underthrown ball gets intercepted. This is the problem with the Ken Dorsey offense". 

 

The second play is an identical concept. 2 high shell. Off coverage. Kincaid runs a great route and reads the LB properly. Josh executes. Good play by Kincaid. Great play by the Bengals here. But the tag line is "There is nothing deep down field". I don't man, I have absolutely zero issue with running the same play against the same coverage all game long. If the Bengals don't want to adjust they don't have to. Keep running it until they decide to change up. At that point go over top. 

 

I appreciated the breakdown of the 3rd play, especially the comment about line of site. The one thing I would ask though is what is the additional expectation? Like the Bengals are playing 2 high for the millionth time giving us everything underneath. It sounds like the big criticism here was the Davis was running the go route on the opposite side of the field. But Kincaid is on that side of the field, and Cook is close. Should the entire play come back to the right side of the field? Also, how much of the decision is pre-snap v post snap when it comes to picking a side? 

I think there is a good conversation around this. I was interested in getting into the layers of when a play breaks down, but tough for me to move past that opening. It is cover 2, the right play is called, with the proper outlets. I don't see a major malfunction in the first three plays he showed. 

This gets me through the first half of the video. I have to jump on a call. Looking forward to getting into the second half. 

[transplantbillsfan]

44 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I dispute this. There are a lot of plays I see us run w half field type reads that bring multiple options into vision

 

 

 

I'm sure there are, but that was one of the primary points Erik was making.

 

I don't think he was saying they're missing completely, just that they aren't in our offense enough.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If I were a DC facing the Bills offense I wouldn’t be afraid of anyone, including Diggs. The reason I say Diggs is because I would just have a safety over top of him all game. There’s nothing else to worry about.

 

Thats why hopefully the Kincaid connection grows. Kincaid could literally have 10 catches every game. And he should until they stop it. 

Yeah I mean right now you're 9 games in. 

 

There isn't much time to start working Harty and Sherfield and Fournette into a more meaningful role. 

 

Harty probably only gets onto the field in 4 wide sets anyways. 

 

Kincaid is getting more volume, Shakir is catching 92% of what is thrown at him. But it's the same story everywhere else: not enough tempo, not enough play action, not enough Allen running, Gabe Davis no showing. 

 

We're running out of time to develop a 2nd pitch. 

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Mango]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I'm sure there are, but that was one of the primary points Erik was making.

 

I don't think he was saying they're missing completely, just that they aren't in our offense enough.

 

There were two receivers in his field of vision, Kincaid was there. Scanning left to right would have Diggs, Kincaid, and Cook (check down). Then the left side of the field had Shakir and Davis running another go route.

 

I think there is a good conversation around this, and maybe we need to do more. But if this is the most egregious example it isn't a great one. 

 

Somebody much smarter than me would have to be able to rattle off the stats and uniformity of NFL plays that run all its routes in the QB's field of vision.

[Tenhigh]

25 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

On that we agree.  If these were single games then I wouldn't think much of it.  Unfortunately this is a 5 game stretch of them now.  Although I will say that KC has practically mirrored our bad offense this year.  They aren't the same team they were either.  Their defense has been pretty damn good this year though.

If we don't lose our big 3 on defense I bet out record looks a lot more like KCs. Let's just hope our O can get right and D improves.