Playoff Chances Across The NFL Midseason

[corta765]

9 weeks in and the playoff picture in the AFC is a mess for the wildcard spots as many teams have a chance but flaws. The NFC looks a bit more settled minus the final wildcard spot.

 

SB or Bust It Feels

KC - The defense is the best Mahomes has had, but it is a legitimate question what the ceiling is for the offense even with Mahomes.

PHI - Dallas gave their best shot and PHI still came out on top. Maybe a perfect roster and the offense is rolling now.

BAL - DET and SEA both came in playing great football and the Ravens curb stopped them. Tough division games ahead, but this is the most complete BAL team yet with Lamar.

CIN - They are rounded into shape and Burrow looks back to form. Chase back injury could be a problem and the division is still really tough so playoffs are a yes but they may be on the road throughout.

 

See You In January... But How Real Are You

SF - Injuries have become a real problem and Purdy is no longer getting away with passes that are dropped that should've been INT. They can restate themselves when they rematch PHI in a few weeks.

DET - They could get the 1 seed in the NFC, their schedule is weak and they are taking to task the division.

JAX - They have some good tests to see where they stand with SF and CIN coming up soon. HOU also looks like a problem soon so this might be the year to push for a run.

MIA -6-0 vs teams with a losing record 0-3 vs winning teams. The book is out on stopping this offense if you have a D-line and can work the WR's off the line. Can Tua take the final step as a passer?

SEA - Geno is taken a little step back compared to last year and while playoffs are real, the offense needs to get it going if they want to do more.

DAL - Tough tough loss that puts them two back in the division when they were so close to stealing a game in PHI. It is fair to wonder if they ever break through at this point.

 

Can Play Themselves In or Out of a Playoff Spot

BUF - The offense is sick and running out of time for a remedy to fix it while the defense doesn't have the teeth right now to allow much attrition. The frustration is real and understandable by the fanbase as the coaching staff seems not willing to adjust to what made things click in the past.

CLE - Defense and running attack is good, if they ever had a QB they could be division contender. Feels like they fade into .500 instead.

HOU - 4-4 and 100% rolling with Stroud who very possibly will play them into a playoff spot. Fun fun team to watch and Ryans has been superb as head coach.

LAC - Back to .500 but the offense is incredibly off and Herbert is not having a great year. Still as we say every year feels like if the talent hit its peak they could be really good.

MIN - If they can get to 9-8 they will make the wildcard. Can Dobbs just play steady enough to let his playmakers work?

NYJ - Zach Wilson will stop this team from making the playoffs and why did they not trade for Dobbs who looks far steadier? Rodgers might make it back for the last 3-4 games which is unreal if it happens, but will they have a season left to play for?

PIT - Great defense, good head coach, and the worst offense in football which has not had over 400 yards in a game in 54 games now and counting. Schedule is far far tougher the rest of the way, yet Tomlin will have them playing for the playoffs the last two weeks.

 

Truthfully Probably Too Flawed for the Playoffs But...

LAR - Stafford being out is probably enough to take away their playoffs, but this is still a good year of progress for their youth and growth long term.

WSH - .500 team again with Rivera that could be more if they did not waste games they should've won.

 

I Hate This Division.. They Are Taking Up A Playoff Spot

ATL - If Taylor Heincke plays the rest of the year they could make a playoff spot. But Arthur Smith looks over his head and it feels like a madden gamer could make this offense run better.

NOLA - Probably the division favorite at this time but nothing to get excited about here.

TB - Tough loss in Houston and they are now two back of NOLA. Nothing is impossible but not trading Evans or some of the vets at the deadline may be a mistake come the offseason if they walk.

 

Drafting Away

ARZ - Murray is back and that will open the offense a bit, but realistically they are probably better not winning more then another game or two for draft reasons.

CHI - Year 3 with Fields and its the same refrain "Need to see him play more to see what he is or isn't" which probably answers what they should do in the offseason.

DEN - The defense seems to have found some footing and the offense at times is productive, but realistically their spinning their wheels to 7-10 and a worse draft pick.

GB - You would hope to see more from Love by now, but the offense is super young and unsettled. Growing years are tough and hopefully Love can show more to inspire faith in the last 8 games.

IND - The youngsters are showing signs, but it feels like everything is on pause with Richardson done for the year and what next year could be.

NE - How they beat the Bills is a real question as the offense looks atrocious again. The big question is if BB survives the season and is given one last shot to rebuild this team which lacks so much talent.

TEN - Levis has looked pretty solid in his first two starts and has some arm talent. They are not going to make the playoffs unless Levis can play at Strouds level, but if he keeps showing good signs that matters more for the future.

 

Bottom Caved In

NYG - They were lucky to get in last year and overperformed, but man the football gods are not giving them a break at this point. New QB coming in 2024.

 

We Made A Very Bad Decision

CAR - Bryce Young has made baby steps and they have a win. But watching Stroud tear up the league and knowing he could've been yours is awful buyers remorse right now.

[chongli]

 

[corta765]

11 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

 

Saw that. No bueno

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

That "I Hate This Division" category rocks! 😁  Why does Atlanta always end up with players whose names sound more applicable to being on 'Glee'? 🤔

(Taylor Heinickie)

[zow2]

Just before the Bills game Sunday I saw that Cincinnati was +1600 to win the Super Bowl.  

I put a few bucks on that.  I hate it but kinda feel like the Bengals may win it all. Today it’s down to +1000.

 

Now the Bills are +1600. I have some money on them too but that was made a few weeks ago.

[FilthyBeast]

Looking at the AFC here's my honest analysis:

 

Locks (75% chance or better these teams are playing in Jan)

1)KC - likely #1 seed yet again

2)BAL - 75% certain they win AFCN but worse case would be #5 seed as WC

3)JAC - lock for AFCS

4) CIN - see #2, AFCN still in play

 

So this brings us to the remaining 3 spots available and who I feel is in the mix for those in no particular order (Let's say 50% chance at playoffs):

 

1) MIA - I know this will surprise some folks especially those that claim I'm a Dolphins fan, but at this point not a lock for division because of their inability to beat a team with a winning record yet. In the end I still lean towards them winning the division and being a playoff team though.

2) NYJ - yes this offense is hideous but they are probably #2 defense in NFL behind KC and that is going to enable them to keep stealing games and they have  a lot of key ones ahead of the yet including Miami x2 and Bills again.

3) BUF - Don't believe they will be in playoffs for obvious reasons but can't exclude them since they are still 5-4 at moment and at least in theory have a shot at going 7-4 before another likely loss on the road against a top team.

4) CLE - In playoffs right now. Defense top 5 but another team with big time questions on offense and many tough division games left.

5) PIT - Same as above and metrics say they should be much worse than their current record and division should also sort this out.

6) HOU - Don't sleep on this team. CJ Stroud looks like he's going to be in the NFL elite conversation very quickly. They have an easy schedule left and some quality wins already against a few of the teams listed above them.

7) LAC - If the defense we've seen the last few weeks is for real they are going to be a factor despite one of the more toughest schedules left.

 

Life Support/25% chance or less to make playoffs

 

1) DEN - Despite all the talk of Russ Wilson being finished and getting 70 points dropped on them by the Dolphins, they are quietly playing solid football and coming out of a bye week facing a struggling Bills team. They win that one they are right back in the mix.

2) TEN - Similar to Broncos in some ways but this team doesn't look like they are ready to go away quietly just yet especially with Will Levis adding a spark at QB.

3) IND - Probably not going anywhere but they have been in pretty much every game and have talent in place to be a spoiler down the stretch at the very least.

4) LVR - Looked like a completely different team after dumping McDaniels. If they sustain that they can certainly be in the mix.

5) NE - All but finished an in the #1 overall pick conversation, ironically their upset of the Bills might prevent that in the end.

 

[corta765]

30 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

2) NYJ - yes this offense is hideous but they are probably #2 defense in NFL behind KC and that is going to enable them to keep stealing games and they have  a lot of key ones ahead of the yet including Miami x2 and Bills again.

 

I agree with most of what you said but the Jets true problem is at best the offense is middling and can stay out of trouble enough for the defense to basically win them the game. I think the fatigue of this and the offense being so limited finally is catching up which means they have no easy wins even if they are in the game. I can really see a scenario playing out where they finish 8-9 maybe 9-8 and you look back and say if only they upgraded to anything over Wilson.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

9 weeks in and the playoff picture in the AFC is a mess for the wildcard spots as many teams have a chance but flaws. The NFC looks a bit more settled minus the final wildcard spot.

 

SB or Bust It Feels

KC - The defense is the best Mahomes has had, but it is a legitimate question what the ceiling is for the offense even with Mahomes.

PHI - Dallas gave their best shot and PHI still came out on top. Maybe a perfect roster and the offense is rolling now.

BAL - DET and SEA both came in playing great football and the Ravens curb stopped them. Tough division games ahead, but this is the most complete BAL team yet with Lamar.

CIN - They are rounded into shape and Burrow looks back to form. Chase back injury could be a problem and the division is still really tough so playoffs are a yes but they may be on the road throughout.

 

See You In January... But How Real Are You

SF - Injuries have become a real problem and Purdy is no longer getting away with passes that are dropped that should've been INT. They can restate themselves when they rematch PHI in a few weeks.

DET - They could get the 1 seed in the NFC, their schedule is weak and they are taking to task the division.

JAX - They have some good tests to see where they stand with SF and CIN coming up soon. HOU also looks like a problem soon so this might be the year to push for a run.

MIA -6-0 vs teams with a losing record 0-3 vs winning teams. The book is out on stopping this offense if you have a D-line and can work the WR's off the line. Can Tua take the final step as a passer?

SEA - Geno is taken a little step back compared to last year and while playoffs are real, the offense needs to get it going if they want to do more.

DAL - Tough tough loss that puts them two back in the division when they were so close to stealing a game in PHI. It is fair to wonder if they ever break through at this point.

 

Can Play Themselves In or Out of a Playoff Spot

BUF - The offense is sick and running out of time for a remedy to fix it while the defense doesn't have the teeth right now to allow much attrition. The frustration is real and understandable by the fanbase as the coaching staff seems not willing to adjust to what made things click in the past.

CLE - Defense and running attack is good, if they ever had a QB they could be division contender. Feels like they fade into .500 instead.

HOU - 4-4 and 100% rolling with Stroud who very possibly will play them into a playoff spot. Fun fun team to watch and Ryans has been superb as head coach.

LAC - Back to .500 but the offense is incredibly off and Herbert is not having a great year. Still as we say every year feels like if the talent hit its peak they could be really good.

MIN - If they can get to 9-8 they will make the wildcard. Can Dobbs just play steady enough to let his playmakers work?

NYJ - Zach Wilson will stop this team from making the playoffs and why did they not trade for Dobbs who looks far steadier? Rodgers might make it back for the last 3-4 games which is unreal if it happens, but will they have a season left to play for?

PIT - Great defense, good head coach, and the worst offense in football which has not had over 400 yards in a game in 54 games now and counting. Schedule is far far tougher the rest of the way, yet Tomlin will have them playing for the playoffs the last two weeks.

 

Truthfully Probably Too Flawed for the Playoffs But...

LAR - Stafford being out is probably enough to take away their playoffs, but this is still a good year of progress for their youth and growth long term.

WSH - .500 team again with Rivera that could be more if they did not waste games they should've won.

 

I Hate This Division.. They Are Taking Up A Playoff Spot

ATL - If Taylor Heincke plays the rest of the year they could make a playoff spot. But Arthur Smith looks over his head and it feels like a madden gamer could make this offense run better.

NOLA - Probably the division favorite at this time but nothing to get excited about here.

TB - Tough loss in Houston and they are now two back of NOLA. Nothing is impossible but not trading Evans or some of the vets at the deadline may be a mistake come the offseason if they walk.

 

Drafting Away

ARZ - Murray is back and that will open the offense a bit, but realistically they are probably better not winning more then another game or two for draft reasons.

CHI - Year 3 with Fields and its the same refrain "Need to see him play more to see what he is or isn't" which probably answers what they should do in the offseason.

DEN - The defense seems to have found some footing and the offense at times is productive, but realistically their spinning their wheels to 7-10 and a worse draft pick.

GB - You would hope to see more from Love by now, but the offense is super young and unsettled. Growing years are tough and hopefully Love can show more to inspire faith in the last 8 games.

IND - The youngsters are showing signs, but it feels like everything is on pause with Richardson done for the year and what next year could be.

NE - How they beat the Bills is a real question as the offense looks atrocious again. The big question is if BB survives the season and is given one last shot to rebuild this team which lacks so much talent.

TEN - Levis has looked pretty solid in his first two starts and has some arm talent. They are not going to make the playoffs unless Levis can play at Strouds level, but if he keeps showing good signs that matters more for the future.

 

Bottom Caved In

NYG - They were lucky to get in last year and overperformed, but man the football gods are not giving them a break at this point. New QB coming in 2024.

 

We Made A Very Bad Decision

CAR - Bryce Young has made baby steps and they have a win. But watching Stroud tear up the league and knowing he could've been yours is awful buyers remorse right now.

 

For all the love stroud gets... he did lose the H2H matchup 2 weeks ago to carolina and had like 120 yards passing.  

[corta765]

5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

For all the love stroud gets... he did lose the H2H matchup 2 weeks ago to carolina and had like 120 yards passing.  

Sure and he will have bad weeks along with defenses figuring out how to defend him better. But their schedule is light and they still have 5 home games left, the opportunity is certainly there for them to be a darkhorse team.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, corta765 said:

Sure and he will have bad weeks along with defenses figuring out how to defend him better. But their schedule is light and they still have 5 home games left, the opportunity is certainly there for them to be a darkhorse team.

 

Only 2 of their games the rest of the season are outdoors too which obviously helps him quite a bit.  They haven't turned the ball over much at all this season. 

 

Just saying - everyone loves him after torching TB but nobody wants to talk about... literally the game before that.  

[corta765]

1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Only 2 of their games the rest of the season are outdoors too which obviously helps him quite a bit.  They haven't turned the ball over much at all this season. 

 

Just saying - everyone loves him after torching TB but nobody wants to talk about... literally the game before that.  

Nope don't disagree. And honestly rookies can look great year 1 and never keep it going. I am a Stroud fan and he is doing everything you would want so far and more. Also alot of time for things to play out good and bad.

[Casey D]

57 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

For all the love stroud gets... he did lose the H2H matchup 2 weeks ago to carolina and had like 120 yards passing.  

That's so last week.  Anything anybody ever did outside the last 2 hours is meaningless..

[Ned Flanders]

If the Bills end up 10-7, that should at least get them a wildcard spot.  Wins vs. Denver, NYJ, Dallas (at home), New England (at home), and either at LAC or at Miami (where it will be filled with Bills fans).

 

The AFC Central, er, North, will beat each other up, with Baltimore winning it (Fish have to play there later this season).

 

The always irrelevant AFC South will send only Jax, who will host the annual ESPN early Saturday playoff game.

 

The West will only send KC.

 

Bottom line: just get in.

[Cray51]

To me Cincy is not in the top tier.  I still think they are not in that tier with Baltimore/KC/Philly/SF.  Those four teams to me are a clear step above the rest of the league.  Yes, SF has lost a few games, but when they are healthy they are very very good.

 

I think the Seahawks are overrated, they are a good but not great team.  Dont see them anywhere near a super bowl contender.  Jets/Browns/Pit are AFC teams who are punching above their weight right now.  They aren't playoff teams IMO.

 

If I were to pick the playoff teams for each conference:

 

AFC:

KC

Baltimore

Jags

Dolphins

Cincy

Bills

Chargers

 

NFC:

Eagles

49ers

Lions

Saints

Cowboys

Seahawks

Vikings?

 

At the end of the day, I really only give 3-4 teams a real shot at the Superbowl.

KC

Baltimore

Eagles

49ers

 

Maybe Cincy or Buffalo IF their teams are firing and healthy.  But I dont really think they will get there.

[corta765]

21 minutes ago, Ned Flanders said:

If the Bills end up 10-7, that should at least get them a wildcard spot.  Wins vs. Denver, NYJ, Dallas (at home), New England (at home), and either at LAC or at Miami (where it will be filled with Bills fans).

 

The AFC Central, er, North, will beat each other up, with Baltimore winning it (Fish have to play there later this season).

 

The always irrelevant AFC South will send only Jax, who will host the annual ESPN early Saturday playoff game.

 

The West will only send KC.

 

Bottom line: just get in.

 

Agreed. I use NFL Playoff Predictor weekly and 10-7 is the safe zone. Get there and tie breakers shouldn't matter as the attrition between teams in conference will drag records down. But that means besides winning all four at home Buffalo is going to have to do their job on the road at least once. If they can be 10-6 heading to Miami I think that game would be for the division. 

 

Miami is 6-3 but has games still against the Jets twice whose defense has been problems against any good offense, at Baltimore, home Dallas, and at Washington who while not great still plays decently hard and it will be December. I do not think it is a far stretch to say Miami is 11-5 come week 18 which still means they went 5-2 mind you. My great question is if Buffalo can actually do their part to just get to 10-6 by then which means winning all of your home games and at least one of at KC/PHI/LAC. Right now don't feel great about that but things change fast good or bad in the NFL.