Calling All Actuaries

[Chaos]

Actuaries make big bucks to run the numbers on the probabilities of things like death and injury.  It seems often that sports franchises do "analytics", but mostly go by eye tests and "experience" for most decisions. 

 

My question to anyone who knows about this: Do teams evaluate their assests with a view to injury liklihood.  For example what is the expected games/contract dollars lost for a defense with six starters 31 or older, and 4 players with major recent injury histories? Or is the nature of football that all players/teams have an equal injury risk?

[Dablitzkrieg]

This team will ***** kill me soon.  100% probability.   Anyways, the thread is for nerds 🤓 

Edited November 7, 2023 by Dablitzkrieg

[Old Coot]

8 minutes ago, Chaos said:

My question to anyone who knows about this: Do teams evaluate their assests with a view to injury liklihood.  For example what is the expected games/contract dollars lost for a defense with six starters 31 or older, and 4 players with major recent injury histories? Or is the nature of football that all players/teams have an equal injury risk?

Interesting question. My guess is that if it's done it's done by someone in the front office (think "Moneyball") not the coaching staff.  The coaches need to focus on getting the players ready to play not deal with esoteric "what ifs."

[strive_for_five_guy]

I would venture to say an older more frail  person is more prone to future injuries than a younger person in mint condition.  With that said, as I got older, I rolled my ankle less playing basketball, mainly because I couldn’t jump as high versus one point in time.  But my effectiveness on the basketball court was also likely lower as a result, too.

[BADOLBILZ]

19 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Actuaries make big bucks to run the numbers on the probabilities of things like death and injury.  It seems often that sports franchises do "analytics", but mostly go by eye tests and "experience" for most decisions. 

 

My question to anyone who knows about this: Do teams evaluate their assests with a view to injury liklihood.  For example what is the expected games/contract dollars lost for a defense with six starters 31 or older, and 4 players with major recent injury histories? Or is the nature of football that all players/teams have an equal injury risk?

 

 

You understand that insurance companies are dealing with MILLIONS of individuals and potential outcomes, right?

 

There are like a dozen or less notably valuable veteran contracts on most NFL teams........so the field isn't large enough to provide decisive results.

 

Teams can afford to analyze each individual contract situation very closely.

 

Also, no every player doesn't sleep in a team supplied hyperbaric chamber.

[Reed83HOF]

20 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Also, no every player doesn't sleep in a team supplied hyperbaric chamber.