Offensive Woes? Blame Dawson Knox (kind of)

[theRalph]

From the moment the Bills made Dalton Kincaid the 25th selection in the draft, the talk was about the offense running 12-personnel as a base package. The three early dominating wins saw the Bills running in 12 (the plays were there to be made vs. the Jets too). With two pass-catching TEs, the Bills run game was developing by putting opposing LBs in no-win situations. 

 

Dawson Knox injured his wrist vs. the Jaguars and, though he tried to play through the injury in the next 2 games, let's be real: If the injury was bad enough to require surgery, I cannot imagine he was very effective during those games. See the 4th down drop vs Pats.

 

With the absence of Knox (along with Q-Morris being out with a high ankle), Dorsey seems to by trying to apply 12-personnel concepts to the 11-personnel sets he's forced to run. You can blame Dorsey all you want for the Bills' recent failures—he should be able to adapt back to 11-personnel better than this. But if you really want to place blame, the Bills' offensive woes nicely coincide with the absence of Dawson Knox. Hopefully, we'll be back to Dawson and 12-personnel before it's too late. 

[UKBillFan]

Why not blame Dawson Knox? I think everyone else has been so far.

[Mikie2times]

12 minutes ago, theRalph said:

From the moment the Bills made Dalton Kincaid the 25th selection in the draft, the talk was about the offense running 12-personnel as a base package. The three early dominating wins saw the Bills running in 12 (the plays were there to be made vs. the Jets too). With two pass-catching TEs, the Bills run game was developing by putting opposing LBs in no-win situations. 

 

Dawson Knox injured his wrist vs. the Jaguars and, though he tried to play through the injury in the next 2 games, let's be real: If the injury was bad enough to require surgery, I cannot imagine he was very effective during those games. See the 4th down drop vs Pats.

 

With the absence of Knox (along with Q-Morris being out with a high ankle), Dorsey seems to by trying to apply 12-personnel concepts to the 11-personnel sets he's forced to run. You can blame Dorsey all you want for the Bills' recent failures—he should be able to adapt back to 11-personnel better than this. But if you really want to place blame, the Bills' offensive woes nicely coincide with the absence of Dawson Knox. Hopefully, we'll be back to Dawson and 12-personnel before it's too late. 

Disagree. This offense has looked better as we have moved to more 3 WR sets with just Dalton. Knox returning will put an end to what we have been doing well if Dorsey is dumb enough to allow that. 12 personnel was just window dressing a finesse offense with a power formation. It didn't work and any stats you could reference are inconclusive at best.

 

Sometimes I stand outside when it rains. It don't think it rains because I stand outside.  

 

12 Personnel by game.  NFL savant doe snot want to spit data out for the Bucs or Bengals.  

 

Bills Jets/ 48 times  =  16 points

Bills Raiders / 31 times =  38 points

Bills Redskins / 24 times = 37 points

Bills Dolphins / 18 times = 48 points

Bills  Jaguars  / 18 times = 20 points

Bills Giants /  4 times = 14 points

Bills Patriots /  18 times = 25 points

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Big Blitz]

There absolutely is a correlation with this O dropping off some when Knox isn’t there especially the run game.  
 

The juice he brings.  The blocking no doubt.  
 

 

The good news is Kincaid is showing traits of becoming elite real quick.  A lot easier to teach a guy to block then the skills Kincaid has.   
 

But the transition to Kincaid being the number 2 and Shakir number 3 will take time and ultimately I trust Dorsey to figure this all out.*
 

 

 

 

 

 

*No I don’t.  

[The Wiz]

Wait, so now we are blaming players that aren't even playing?

 

I blame Milano and white for having season ending injuries.  Just selfish of them to want to get hurt so they'll don't have to play.🙄

 

Some of these threads...

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by The Wiz

[bmur66]

I don’t have a high football IQ. Can someone give me a short on what 12 personnel is?

[BuffaloBillyG]

56 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

Why not blame Dawson Knox? I think everyone else has been so far.

I blame Tremaine Edmunds. He has been a ghost all year.

[Brandon]

12 minutes ago, bmur66 said:

I don’t have a high football IQ. Can someone give me a short on what 12 personnel is?

 

1 RB, 2 TEs.

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

13 minutes ago, bmur66 said:

I don’t have a high football IQ. Can someone give me a short on what 12 personnel is?

Its when a team sneaks an extra player on offense. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

12 minutes ago, bmur66 said:

I don’t have a high football IQ. Can someone give me a short on what 12 personnel is?

Two TEs and one RB on the field,

aka 2 WRs too.  11 personnel is one TE and one RB, aka 3 WRs too.

[Mikie2times]

11 minutes ago, bmur66 said:

I don’t have a high football IQ. Can someone give me a short on what 12 personnel is?

12 Personnell is 2 WR's, 2 TE's and 1 RB

 

For us it usually is this 

 

2 WR's, 2 TE's, 1 RB =  Diggs, Davis, Kinkaid, Knox + RB

 

Historically we have been more 3 WR/1 TE

 

3 WR's, 1 TE, 1 RB= Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Kinkaid +RB

 

 

[jkeerie]

1 hour ago, theRalph said:

From the moment the Bills made Dalton Kincaid the 25th selection in the draft, the talk was about the offense running 12-personnel as a base package. The three early dominating wins saw the Bills running in 12 (the plays were there to be made vs. the Jets too). With two pass-catching TEs, the Bills run game was developing by putting opposing LBs in no-win situations. 

 

Dawson Knox injured his wrist vs. the Jaguars and, though he tried to play through the injury in the next 2 games, let's be real: If the injury was bad enough to require surgery, I cannot imagine he was very effective during those games. See the 4th down drop vs Pats.

 

With the absence of Knox (along with Q-Morris being out with a high ankle), Dorsey seems to by trying to apply 12-personnel concepts to the 11-personnel sets he's forced to run. You can blame Dorsey all you want for the Bills' recent failures—he should be able to adapt back to 11-personnel better than this. But if you really want to place blame, the Bills' offensive woes nicely coincide with the absence of Dawson Knox. Hopefully, we'll be back to Dawson and 12-personnel before it's too late. 

I disagree with this.  I think the problem is one of loyalties.  With Josh, he is loyal to his guys.  So he tries to force feed the ball to the likes of Gabe Davis.  Josh needs to just throw it to the open guy no matter who it is.  As to Dorsey he needs to adopt the philosophy if it's working, don't try to fix it.  Trust your eyes and just go with it.

[strive_for_five_guy]

41 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

I disagree with this.  I think the problem is one of loyalties.  With Josh, he is loyal to his guys.  So he tries to force feed the ball to the likes of Gabe Davis.  Josh needs to just throw it to the open guy no matter who it is.  As to Dorsey he needs to adopt the philosophy if it's working, don't try to fix it.  Trust your eyes and just go with it.

I agree, he does the same with Knox at times.  Hopefully success with other guys like Kincaid, Shakir, etc. will teach him the benefits of not force feeding the ball, especially to guys with stone hands.  Doesn’t mean Davis and Knox can’t have their moments, but Josh needs other/better options.  Davis had one of his best nights against Tampa, but was seemingly aided bc Josh had these other receiving threats too.

[Mr. WEO]

wut?  no

[theRalph]

15 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Wait, so now we are blaming players that aren't even playing?

 

I blame Milano and white for having season ending injuries.  Just selfish of them to want to get hurt so they'll don't have to play.🙄

Try reading the entire post before favoring us with your deeply considered opinion.

[Big Turk]

15 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

There absolutely is a correlation with this O dropping off some when Knox isn’t there especially the run game.  
 

The juice he brings.  The blocking no doubt.  
 

 

The good news is Kincaid is showing traits of becoming elite real quick.  A lot easier to teach a guy to block then the skills Kincaid has.   
 

But the transition to Kincaid being the number 2 and Shakir number 3 will take time and ultimately I trust Dorsey to figure this all out.*
 

 

 

 

 

 

*No I don’t.  

 

I'm wondering have the Bills tried to go back to more zone runs versus the gap scheme which is what actually is what is  effective for the last 4 years and they seem obsessed with trying to get zone runs working but without fail they end up going back to gap scheme more often again...seems like the run game has really tailed off and I would bet it's going away from gap runs that has caused it.

[Fr. Jerk]

15 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Wait, so now we are blaming players that aren't even playing?

 

I blame Milano and white for having season ending injuries.  Just selfish of them to want to get hurt so they'll don't have to play.🙄

 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

16 hours ago, theRalph said:

From the moment the Bills made Dalton Kincaid the 25th selection in the draft, the talk was about the offense running 12-personnel as a base package. The three early dominating wins saw the Bills running in 12 (the plays were there to be made vs. the Jets too). With two pass-catching TEs, the Bills run game was developing by putting opposing LBs in no-win situations. 

 

Dawson Knox injured his wrist vs. the Jaguars and, though he tried to play through the injury in the next 2 games, let's be real: If the injury was bad enough to require surgery, I cannot imagine he was very effective during those games. See the 4th down drop vs Pats.

 

With the absence of Knox (along with Q-Morris being out with a high ankle), Dorsey seems to by trying to apply 12-personnel concepts to the 11-personnel sets he's forced to run. You can blame Dorsey all you want for the Bills' recent failures—he should be able to adapt back to 11-personnel better than this. But if you really want to place blame, the Bills' offensive woes nicely coincide with the absence of Dawson Knox. Hopefully, we'll be back to Dawson and 12-personnel before it's too late. 

If we were really committing to 12 personnel, why would we only have 3 TE's on the roster, and with all of them with seemingly different skill sets? They should have had at least one other guy like Dawson in case of injury. Kincaid was slated to be a glorified slot receiver, which it seems like is a good role for him. So I don't think 12 personnel was the plan, at least not in the traditional sense, and if it was McBeane should have had a fourth TE on the roster.

[theRalph]

21 minutes ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

If we were really committing to 12 personnel, why would we only have 3 TE's on the roster

How many would you like? And what other position group are you taking spots from by adding TEs?