Downward Offensive Trend is Clear

[Scott7975]

15 hours ago, ngbills said:

Since 2020 Season

 

Bills score 25 or less:

2020 - 4 of 16 games

2021 - 4 of 17 games

2022 - 6 of 16 games

2023 - 6 of 9 games (on pace to be worst in 4 years)

 

Bills under 350 yards in O:

2020 - 5 of 16 games

2021 - 5 of 17 games

2022 - 4 of 16 games

2023 - 4 of 9 games (on pace to be worst in 4 years)

 

Bills 20 or less 1st downs:

2020 - 1 of 16 games

2021 - 4 of 17 games

2022 - 5 of 16 games

2023 - 3 of 9 games (on pace to be worst in 4 years)

 

Games outgained in yards by opponent:

2020 - 6 of 16 games

2021 - 3 of 17 games

2022 - 4 of 16 games

2023 - 4 of 9 games (on pace to be worst in 4 years)

 

I can do this for almost every offensive category. This O clearly has issues. Dont be fooled by some of the overall stats as they are skewed by a couple games vs what the team has done in the majority of games this year. 

 

but but but epa.

15 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think offensive output is down throughout the nfl. 

 

Scoring is the same as it was last season.  Its like 0.2 difference.  It is down from the prior two years by a couple points though.

[Scott7975]

15 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Prime Beasley.

There’s probably 25 offenses worse in the league without even looking at stats.

 

But they should give Harty a chance with his speed. I’m not sure why they signed him. I would have him and Davis split reps.

 

Over the last 5 games the Bills have averaged 20.2 ppg.  That would put them 20th.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It’s the same system we’ve had since 2018.

 

It’s not the system. Play selection, player usage, and execution of the system has changed.

 

Its not the same offensive philosophy.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Scott7975

[Buffalo_Stampede]

13 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It’s not the same offensive philosophy.

Same system.

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Same system.

 

Go back and watch the Daboll run offense.  Its not even close to being run the same way.

[colin]

we are just too stupid as a team.

 

our offense is not run any any way that sets things up.  we have a bunch of different player groupings and formations, but they just tip off what we want to do.  we destroy people out of under center formations, but much prefer to use shotgun.  we give up on the run as soon as we get stopped on two poorly run shotgun sprint draws.

 

we have goofy spacing, guys literally tripping over each other near the line, and it seems like harty, davis, and sherf just don't get open or catch the ball well.

 

the biggest fixable issue to me tho, is josh keeps making the same mistakes.  partly that because our spacing and such aren't good, but his pick was a horrible decision and he could have just avoided it.  it should be really easy for a coach who's worked w allen his entire career to point this out and get him to stop, but we just don't want to do that it seems.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, colin said:

we are just too stupid as a team.

 

our offense is not run any any way that sets things up.  we have a bunch of different player groupings and formations, but they just tip off what we want to do.  we destroy people out of under center formations, but much prefer to use shotgun.  we give up on the run as soon as we get stopped on two poorly run shotgun sprint draws.

 

we have goofy spacing, guys literally tripping over each other near the line, and it seems like harty, davis, and sherf just don't get open or catch the ball well.

 

the biggest fixable issue to me tho, is josh keeps making the same mistakes.  partly that because our spacing and such aren't good, but his pick was a horrible decision and he could have just avoided it.  it should be really easy for a coach who's worked w allen his entire career to point this out and get him to stop, but we just don't want to do that it seems.

 

It was a worse throw than decision imo.  Only because he could have made a completion there with a better throw.  However, he should have just gone to Diggs as Davis had a small window of room.  The thing is though, we can't expect this team to move the field 3-4 yards at a time.  Sometimes you have to have the chunk play.  No team in the league is going to consistently score on 12+ play drives just "taking what the defense gives you."  If the play is there to be made then he needs to take it once in a while. Even if it's lowere percentage.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Scott7975

[ngbills]

2 hours ago, colin said:

we are just too stupid as a team.

 

our offense is not run any any way that sets things up.  we have a bunch of different player groupings and formations, but they just tip off what we want to do.  we destroy people out of under center formations, but much prefer to use shotgun.  we give up on the run as soon as we get stopped on two poorly run shotgun sprint draws.

 

we have goofy spacing, guys literally tripping over each other near the line, and it seems like harty, davis, and sherf just don't get open or catch the ball well.

 

the biggest fixable issue to me tho, is josh keeps making the same mistakes.  partly that because our spacing and such aren't good, but his pick was a horrible decision and he could have just avoided it.  it should be really easy for a coach who's worked w allen his entire career to point this out and get him to stop, but we just don't want to do that it seems.

All true and obvious to everyone except the people making the decisions...

[colin]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It was a worse throw than decision imo.  Only because he could have made a completion there with a better throw.  However, he should have just gone to Diggs as Davis had a small window of room.  The thing is though, we can't expect this team to move the field 3-4 yards at a time.  Sometimes you have to have the chunk play.  No team in the league is going to consistently score on 12+ play drives just "taking what the defense gives you."  If the play is there to be made then he needs to take it once in a while. Even if it's lowere percentage.

 

i saw the RB open by a mile underneath, say 5 yards up the field.  no shot he doesn't gain a first, and likely more on that.

 

the conceit of this is, allen ignores the flat, and we have bad spacing, so the d just has to play zone vs the deeper routes and wait for a mistake.  we make it too easy for them.

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, colin said:

 

i saw the RB open by a mile underneath, say 5 yards up the field.  no shot he doesn't gain a first, and likely more on that.

 

the conceit of this is, allen ignores the flat, and we have bad spacing, so the d just has to play zone vs the deeper routes and wait for a mistake.  we make it too easy for them.

 

I wouldn't say no shot but yes, Cook was an easier option as well.  You'd be surprised how fast good defense flies to the ball.  Especially when they are all watching the QB and reacting to him when he starts his throwing motion.  Either way, on that play it was both a bad decision and throw.  Its also one Allen has made quite a lot so its hard to criticize because if you criticize that then you also have to criticize when he makes the TD or a 20+ yard gain on the same exact throw and coverage.

[Mister Defense]

On 11/6/2023 at 2:43 PM, ngbills said:

Since 2020 Season

 

Bills score 25 or less:

2020 - 4 of 16 games

2021 - 4 of 17 games

2022 - 6 of 16 games

2023 - 6 of 9 games (on pace to be worst in 4 years)

 

Bills under 350 yards in O:

2020 - 5 of 16 games

2021 - 5 of 17 games

2022 - 4 of 16 games

2023 - 4 of 9 games (on pace to be worst in 4 years)

 

Bills 20 or less 1st downs:

2020 - 1 of 16 games

2021 - 4 of 17 games

2022 - 5 of 16 games

2023 - 3 of 9 games (on pace to be worst in 4 years)

 

Games outgained in yards by opponent:

2020 - 6 of 16 games

2021 - 3 of 17 games

2022 - 4 of 16 games

2023 - 4 of 9 games (on pace to be worst in 4 years)

 

I can do this for almost every offensive category. This O clearly has issues. Dont be fooled by some of the overall stats as they are skewed by a couple games vs what the team has done in the majority of games this year. 

 

 

Thank you--great stats, showing the now rapid offensive decline and why it is imperative to make the change now, not at the end of the season.  Why?  The trend will clearly continue and the offense very very likely continue to regress.

 

As the impact of Daboll waned and waned last year we all saw the regression, culminating in no chance at all in the playoff game, and, unless McD wakes up, will almost assuredly mean the Bills don't even get a chance to redeem themselves in this year's party.

 

NOW...