Say you're Brandon Beane: what do you do with these three contracts?

[PBF81]

On 11/6/2023 at 3:25 PM, Gregthekeg said:

What happens if Von Miller retires? He talks about his legacy with the game and his pride in doing everything to help his team he can. If he sees that he is a shell of what he was, and it is hurting the team, and that is all everyone talks about this offseason, is there a chance he retires? 

 

If he does retire, how does that impact the cap? 

 

Since no one has answered you, unless I missed it, I checked online.  The source I found says that a retirement is treated the same as a cut from a cap perspective.  

 

Teams can ask for unearned signing bonus money back, but that doesn't affect the cap apparently.  He won't retire if it means giving money back.  He's finished as anything besides a role-player in rotation or as a depth player.  He'll be 35 next season.  

 

 

On 11/6/2023 at 3:38 PM, RiotAct said:

Geez, at this rate I’ll learn that we’re stuck with Von for the next decade before we can realistically cut him.  Lol

 

I guess that's what happens when you sign a player in decline at the age of 33 to a 6-year contract.  HUGE swing-and-a-miss by Beane.  He should not be let off the hook for that.  

 

 

On 11/6/2023 at 4:06 PM, mrags said:

all this means nothing if we have McDermott. Because if he’s here he will continue with his 19 man rotation at DL and Von will get his snaps 

 

LOL   I hear ya!!  

 

Thanks for the humor!!  It's humor that keeps us going in times such as these.   

 

 

On 11/6/2023 at 4:23 PM, All_Pro_Bills said:

These contract decisions and cap issues are going to require Beane to hit on the draft in 2024.  Get that WR we lack, find a run stuffer DT, and identify a RT replacement for Brown to name a few needs.  Add in 2 new safeties and McDermott is going to be forced to do something he's not done which is start younger players out of necessity. 

 

Odds of that happening you think?  

 

What, the 7th time's the charm?  Beane should be on his knees thanking the football gods that Allen worked out, or both he and McD would have been gone after the 2019 season.  

 

Here's a list of Beane's draft picks otherwise from which to build a team around in his 6 drafts now.  

 

DL:  Oliver, AJE, Groot

 

LB:  Bernard, Williams

 

DB:  Johnson, Jackson, Benford, Elam

 

OL:  Brown, Torrence 

 

RB:  Cook

 

WR:  Davis, Shakir, Shorter 

 

TE:  Kincaid, Knox 

 

Imagine a team built around that.  Not a winner.  Not even close.  That's the core of a perennial 5-12 team right there.  If even that.  

 

 

On 11/6/2023 at 4:36 PM, dpberr said:

Yes, he'd be leaving a lot of money on the table, but from Miller's perspective, negotiating a way out of Buffalo allows him to pick another team, or simply joining the team of his choice come November of the 2024 season for a playoff run.  

 

He won't retire.  I doubt he'd restructure if it meant losing money.  Remember, it's a business.  ... until a stadium needs to be built, then it's a community service, but otherwise, it's all business.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

On 11/7/2023 at 1:52 AM, Chaos said:

If we are burning down the roster, is it time to change coaches too? 

 

I actually look at it the other way, if we change coaches it is time to burn down the roster. Take as much of the cap pain in 2024 as possible, try and load up on capital and then go again in 2025.

 

I'd make the regime decision 1st and the roster decisions 2nd.

Edited November 8, 2023 by GunnerBill

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I actually look at it the other way, if we change coaches it is time to burn down the roster. Take as much of the cap pain in 2024 as possible, try and load up on capital and then go again in 2025.

 

Here's the thing, there's more than enough on offense to get a whole lot more out of it than we're getting right now.  

 

I don't know what our FA situation is offensively, I'l look in a moment, but Morse may be gone, Davis likely will be since he'll get more elsewhere than he'll be worth here, but I think that's about it.  

 

Draft an OT/C, maybe a RB in round 3, a WR, make a good FAcy move on offense, not a crazy expensive one, but to fill a gap, like McGovern did e.g., and I don't think we lose much of a beat.  

 

Defensively, do what we've done on offense, get some rentals or 1/2-year free agents until the offensive situation is more settled.  Joseph has played well in his first game, same for Douglas.  We'll see if they continue, but time to reverse the offseason trend of focusing on the D.  Put the emphasis on the O, get someone in here that knows how to optimize the offense, and see what happens. 

 

Here's the great thing about this situation, Allen & Co. aren't a long-term project.  They're ready, they simply need solid coaching/leadership and they're off and running.  NPI   If the new guys don't work out, swap 'em out again in two years.  This shouldn't be a world-class coaching challenge that McD's turned it into.  

 

 

Just looked, most of our FAs are on the defensive side.  None would cost much to resign.  

 

Hyde needs to be let-go or restructured.  

 

None of the FAs would be expensive to resign, I don't think, other than for Davis, who while he may not be "expensive" per se, he'll likely get more than we should be paying him elsewhere.  Whether he wants to take less to stay with Allen remains to be seen.  If they wanted to keep him they should have extended him by now.  

 

Am I missing any FAs?  

Morse isn't a FA, but he's also not playing at a particularly high level either, and he's old for a C.  His dead cap according to spotrac saves $8.5M.  He's not a major problem, and he's hanging on well given his age and concussion/injury history.  But we need to start looking for another C if Bates isn't the future there.  

 

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by PBF81

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Here's the thing, there's more than enough on offense to get a whole lot more out of it than we're getting right now.  

 

I don't know what our FA situation is offensively, I'l look in a moment, but Morse may be gone, Davis likely will be since he'll get more elsewhere than he'll be worth here, but I think that's about it.  

 

Draft an OT/C, maybe a RB in round 3, a WR, make a good FAcy move on offense, not a crazy expensive one, but to fill a gap, like McGovern did e.g., and I don't think we lose much of a beat.  

 

Defensively, do what we've done on offense, get some rentals or 1/2-year free agents until the offensive situation is more settled.  Joseph has played well in his first game, same for Douglas.  We'll see if they continue, but time to reverse the offseason trend of focusing on the D.  Put the emphasis on the O, get someone in here that knows how to optimize the offense, and see what happens. 

 

Here's the great thing about this situation, Allen & Co. aren't a long-term project.  They're ready, they simply need solid coaching/leadership and they're off and running.  NPI   If the new guys don't work out, swap 'em out again in two years.  This shouldn't be a world-class coaching challenge that McD's turned it into.  

 

 

Just looked, most of our FAs are on the defensive side.  None would cost much to resign.  

 

Hyde needs to be let-go or restructured.  

 

None of the FAs would be expensive to resign, I don't think, other than for Davis, who while he may not be "expensive" per se, he'll likely get more than we should be paying him elsewhere.  Whether he wants to take less to stay with Allen remains to be seen.  If they wanted to keep him they should have extended him by now.  

 

Am I missing any FAs?  

Morse isn't a FA, but he's also not playing at a particularly high level either, and he's old for a C.  His dead cap according to spotrac saves $8.5M.  He's not a major problem, and he's hanging on well given his age and concussion/injury history.  But we need to start looking for another C if Bates isn't the future there.  

 

 

 

Yea I don't agree. I think this roster is close to a re-set point in any event. I don't actually think "tear down" which might have been the term used earlier - there are enough solid players that a new regime could still be competitive day 1, but I think Poyer, Hyde, Morse, Von Miller and probably White are all major question marks after this year. Daquan Jones is a FA going into his age 33 year so you can probably add him too.

 

That is 6 vet leaders and 4 of them have been stalwarts of this regime. Then I'd say Diggs, Dawkins and possibly Milano depending how he returns all probably have 2 years left (Milano maybe 3 or 4 if he comes back to his best). That is basically the entire core of what has been around Josh his whole career. 

 

Now you can manage that transition slower or faster. My take is if you retain the HC and GM you do it more slowly over 3 to 4 years. If you change regime you do a bulk of it next spring and finish the job the following one. 

 

But regardless who is in charge next season there will be a transition to the second Josh Allen era in terms of his teammates over the next few years.

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

On 11/6/2023 at 1:19 PM, dorquemada said:

Knox?  I'd give him another year

 

The Knox contract really isn't a problem IMHO. At this point, Kincaid looks like he could be an elite level TE and should be TE1 without any debate unless he proves otherwise at some point. But, he's going to be on a rookie deal for the remainder of Knox's contract so the money being spent at the position in total probably isn't too bad. Knox hasn't been perfect, but he's been pretty good and does make plays. As a TE2, you can't ask for much better than Knox. We just shouldn't force 12 personnel. Run some 2 TE sets at a normal clip and get Knox in when it suits the situation, or as a backup when Kincaid can't go. 

[PBF81]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Yea I don't agree. I think this roster is close to a re-set point in any event. I don't actually think "tear down" which might have been the term used earlier - there are enough solid players that a new regime could still be competitive day 1, but I think Poyer, Hyde, Morse, Von Miller and probably White are all major question marks after this year. Daquan Jones is a FA going into his age 33 year so you can probably add him too.

 

Yeah, I figured you wouldn't.     But everything that you mention above is on the defensive side.  Hence my comments.    

 

 

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

That is 6 vet leaders and 4 of them have been stalwarts of this regime. Then I'd say Diggs, Dawkins and possibly Milano depending how he returns all probably have 2 years left (Milano maybe 3 or 4 if he comes back to his best). That is basically the entire core of what has been around Josh his whole career. 

 

Milano, again, is defense, although I suspect he'll be fine.  

 

Diggs is signed through '27 and Dawkins has a year left, so at least for next season we're good.  Perhaps a restructure there, or an extension encompassing that ahead of time.  

 

 

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Now you can manage that transition slower or faster. My take is if you retain the HC and GM you do it more slowly over 3 to 4 years. If you change regime you do a bulk of it next spring and finish the job the following one.  

 

That is a part of what the discussion about McBeane is about, implicitly.  They've had 7 and 6 seasons/drafts respectively, and we've essentially come full circle to where we were when they were hired, with significant cap issues hindering them.  Largely due to Beane's inabilities to draft the level of talent that's required to make the kind of impact that is required, elite players as you've called them.  

McD has now candidly admitted cluelessness in terms of what's wrong much more how to correct it.  AKA, can't fix what you don't understand is wrong.  

 

 

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

But regardless who is in charge next season there will be a transition to the second Josh Allen era in terms of his teammates over the next few years.

 

Well, that assumes that Dorsey is fired.  

 

Not sure I'd make that assumption given how McD operates.  

 

But to my point, the offense, and uncontested by you seemingly, simply needs someone that understands offense effectively to put it together and running on all cylinders instead of coughing and choking while moving.  It shouldn't take any kind of monumental effort by someone that understands offense, to do that, with essentially the same team that's on the field today.  

 

They get half a season to show significant progress, and a second season to optimize it.  

 

During that process, make sure you've got a GM that understands that and starts building around Allen instead of tinkering FFL style with the D.  

 

The D, as assessed by you above, is a sunk cost.  It's going to be the same regardless.  

 

So the only questions that remain, are ... 

 

A.  What are we going to do to support Allen and the O?  

 

B. Do we have the right people to do that?  After 7 seasons the answer to that is apparently a resounding 'no.'  

 

C.  Who best to do that?  

 

Then of course the catalyst to it all is Pegula, who should be heavily involved, since if this isn't corrected threatens to derail the ST/PSL sales process for the new stadium.  Asking fans from WNY to pay that kind of money for slop play/performance isn't the way to go there.  

 

We'll see what happens.  As always, none of have a vote in the matter.    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by PBF81

[All_Pro_Bills]

53 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Odds of that happening you think?  

 

What, the 7th time's the charm?  Beane should be on his knees thanking the football gods that Allen worked out, or both he and McD would have been gone after the 2019 season.  

 

Here's a list of Beane's draft picks otherwise from which to build a team around in his 6 drafts now.  

 

DL:  Oliver, AJE, Groot

 

LB:  Bernard, Williams

 

DB:  Johnson, Jackson, Benford, Elam

 

OL:  Brown, Torrence 

 

RB:  Cook

 

WR:  Davis, Shakir, Shorter 

 

TE:  Kincaid, Knox 

 

Imagine a team built around that.  Not a winner.  Not even close.  That's the core of a perennial 5-12 team right there.  If even that. 

 

On another topic I suggested the FO's drafting record, absent the Josh Allen maneuvering and selection, is in the bottom 1/3 of the league.  

 

 

[PBF81]

19 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

On another topic I suggested the FO's drafting record, absent the Josh Allen maneuvering and selection, is in the bottom 1/3 of the league.  

 

Yeah, I saw that!  

 

Completely agree.  In fact, I've been preaching that for several years now.  ... as no doubt you have as well.  

 

 

[Spiderweb]

On 11/6/2023 at 1:16 PM, BuffaloRebound said:

White is almost no brainer to cut.  It saves cap space.  Stuck with Miller and Knox for another year.  

Give White camp next year to see how he does. Sadly, when he got hurt (achilles), he was only just beginning to look like his knee injury was behind him.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Spiderweb said:

Give White camp next year to see how he does. Sadly, when he got hurt (achilles), he was only just beginning to look like his knee injury was behind him.

 

Not going to be worth it. Even if he pulls off a miracle, he isnt going to be a $16M/yr CB.

 

If he wants to take a paycut and sign a new deal at like 3/$18M with a ton of incentives, then maybe. But we cant roll with $16M/yr.

[DuckyBoys]

3 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

On another topic I suggested the FO's drafting record, absent the Josh Allen maneuvering and selection, is in the bottom 1/3 of the league.  

 

 

Beane and McDermott would have been long gone if they didnt draft Josh Allen

[T master]

On 11/6/2023 at 12:16 PM, BuffaloRebound said:

White is almost no brainer to cut.  It saves cap space.  Stuck with Miller and Knox for another year.  

 

Hate it but this is the best thing for the team . I feel Knox is still a good reliable TE that really doesn't like some of the other weapons this team has does]t get used correctly . Von will heal and still be a good player good enough for another season then after seeing where he gets to make the future decision from that input .

 

On 11/6/2023 at 12:37 PM, Billl said:

Tear it down, eat as much crap in 2024 as possible in terms of cap hits, and start the rebuild in 2025.  If McBeane had banked a championship already, they could have done it this year before the hole got too deep.  Because they didn’t have that luxury, they were forced to push in good money after bad in hopes of getting lucky and winning with a bad hand.  

 

True but things have changed quite a bit since then & not for the better as we know . They will get it figured out !! 

 

 

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

I swear some of you want another 17 year playoff drought so you can complain endlessly and be miserable. 

[Low Positive]

14 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I swear some of you want another 17 year playoff drought so you can complain endlessly and be miserable. 

Actually, judging from this place right now, we don't require a 17-year drought to be miserable. All it takes is a single 6-point loss to a really good team in their stadium. 

[bigK14094]

Knox can play the run, Kincaid is a receiver, but, apparently not much at line play.  So, you need to keep Knox to have one blocking TE.

1 hour ago, DuckyBoys said:

Beane and McDermott would have been long gone if they didnt draft Josh Allen

But, they did.

[Turk71]

  Beane ***** the bed with the Knox and Miller contracts and now the Bills have to sleep in it for a couple years, he's not the genius many here make him out to be. 

  Side note, he's also not the great drafter people make him out to be either. Getting Josh Allen was a big win and granted them job security, but the rest is not so impressive.  

[Chaos]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd make the regime decision 1st and the roster decisions 2nd.

Age and injuries on the defense may force the roster decisions. 

[3rdand12]

5 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I saw that!  

 

Completely agree.  In fact, I've been preaching that for several years now.  ... as no doubt you have as well.  

 

 

Question to that point that All Pro made 

Was it the drafting or the Coaching?

Did Beane supply the players asked for ?

Were they not developed to their potential (Elam says hi )
I am not down on Beane as much McD at this point.

 Some Coaches can make good use of what we have have drafted.

Beane also has done decently with FA.

That could be argued of course.

 Miller might have killed him (in hindsight) though.

Like Mario Williams did to some degree.

 

But bottom four rating is how they performed of course.  Again i have to account for Coaching failing the players here as well.

 

Good posts to consider  here  thanks !

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Age and injuries on the defense may force the roster decisions. 

 

To an extent. But as I said to @PBF81 it is about the pace. Do you take a load of decisions at once or do you spread some of it out? 

 

You make the regime decision first. Then you consider the roster in that context. In any event the NFL calendar forces you to do it that way.

[Chaos]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

You make the regime decision first.

So if you decide to change the coaches, or keep the coaches, how does that change the answer to the roster decisions as it relates to the over aged over paid over injuried defenders?