some perspective on a down season

[NoSaint]

32 minutes ago, Punch said:

Sobering, it's an excellent analysis. I think the measuring stick for a lot of us as Bills fans is Tom Brady and even Patrick Mahomes. Sustained excellence over an expanded timeline isn't typical or realistic, especially in this era of the NFL. 

know what kept many of those units together in the bad years? Rings.

 

to make it through our first peak, often the highest peak, without even an appearance and only the one big loss in the AFCCG as the high water mark would be a tremendous let down.

 

It would warrant serious discussion about coaching jobs.

[Coach Tuesday]

I honestly believe that Doug freakin’ Peterson would win a Super Bowl with Josh.

 

(wasn’t sure where else to put that thought)

[jkeerie]

24 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Odd that the Chiefs haven't had a down season in the time that mahomes has been there

 

 

That is true, although the level of competition within their division has been woeful.  It's like the AFC East when the Patriots dominated over it with Brady.  We dominated prior to this year.  The competition this year is a lot more fierce.

[Success]

The OP is right, and I appreciate this.

 

My issue is that I saw this 2023 team as the best that Beane has put together.  He filled most of the holes, and we looked so strong for a stretch after the Jets debacle.

 

Obviously, the injuries hurt.  But I also overrated how good we were/are. This just doesn't look like our year.

 

33 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Odd that the Chiefs haven't had a down season in the time that mahomes has been there

 

 

 

The Chiefs have the best coach in the league right now (imo) - and they were also built better out of the gate.

 

I believe they will have some down years, though.  Even this year could have been if their division was tougher.  Kelce really keeps that offense going right now.

 

[jkeerie]

1 minute ago, Success said:

The OP is right, and I appreciate this.

 

My issue is that I saw this 2023 team as the best that Beane has put together.  He filled most of the holes, and we looked so strong for a stretch after the Jets debacle.

 

Obviously, the injuries hurt.  But I also overrated how good we were/are. This just doesn't look like our year.

 

It's the inconsitencies on offense and special teams that drive me nuts the most!

[Taro Nimbus]

Bills fans have become spoiled to their recent success.   It’s now every year we expect them to exceed what they did last year, when in fact teams do struggle from time to time.  Every team goes through slumps.   The Bills have a good core of players and coaches.    Just gotta weather the storm.  A far cry from what the bills were during the drought years. 

[dpberr]

I think coaching continuity is way overrated in the era of free agency and tanking for high draft picks.

 

If you're the Steelers, and the Super Bowl is the goal, why go year after year with Mike Tomlin, churning out painful seasons of 10 wins year after year?  

 

If you're the Cowboys, what good comes from keeping Mike McCarthy employed, where you'll feast on the mediocrity and lose against all the good teams?  

 

Why does Tampa Bay find money for more text book definition of mediocrity Todd Bowles?

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

In looking at the trajectories of other reliably good teams with franchise quarterbacks over long stretches of time (and excluding the Brady-led Patriots, who are a complete outlier), you can see that there are 1-to-2 year troughs for all of them.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/

Over 17 seasons with Roethlisberger, the Steelers had four 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. They missed the playoffs all six times but made it the other 11 times. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/

Over 15 seasons with Brees, the Saints had five 7-9 seasons and an 8-8 season; they made the playoffs 9 out of 15 times.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/

Over 15 seasons with Rogers, GB had a 7-9 season, a 6-9-1 season, an 8-9 season, and a 6-10 season (the last one to be fair was Rogers' first as a starter). They made the playoffs 11 out of 15 seasons.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/

In ten seasons with Russell Wilson, the Seahawks made the playoffs 8 times; they had a 9-7 season in which they didn't make it and a 7-10 season too (Wilson's final one). 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/

In 11 seasons with Flacco (not the greatest QB, I know, but the team was always pretty deep in talent and had an excellent coach in Harbaugh), the Ravens made the playoffs 7 times; the times they didn't their records were 8-8, 8-8, 9-7, and 5-11.

 

The Eagles under Andy Reid (with mostly McNabb but Vick too) missed the playoffs in 4 out of 14 seasons.

 

The Colts with Manning made the playoffs 11 out of 12 seasons from 1999-2010; they missed it in 2001 with a very down 6-10 season (they year that Mora issued his "playoffs?!?" comment). They made it back in 2002 as a WC but lost 41-0 in the first round to the Jets.

 

Point is, over long stretches, there are generally always "trough years" for franchise-QB teams who win a lot more than they lose. In an actuarial sense, it's to be expected. Not counting Allen's rookie season, the Bills have made it to the playoffs four years in a row. This year might well be one of those expected trough years, though. The stars simply haven't been aligned: they have an extremely difficult schedule, had the NFL assign them a "home" game that was really a road game, and suffered a bunch of injuries to elite players on their defense that probably cost them the game against NE. If there's one loss I can point to that may end up crippling the Bills, it's the divisional loss to a terrible Pats team where an undermanned defense was completely overwhelmed, allowing one of the worst QBs in the league to put up elite numbers. That's the loss that sticks with me. I never expected them to beat Cincy, so I can live with that loss.

 

Great work.  
 

However all those teams and their coaches won Super Bowls let alone just got there. 
 

If this season ends how it’s currently going we will be entering year 8 of McD.  
 

And with the problem emerging that the O isn’t improving, and your franchise QB enters his age 28 season, it’s pretty much we need to figure it out right now.   
 

Herbert is going to get an offensive head coach starting next year.  The Texans and Colts are on the rise.  Denver looks competent again.  The Jets will have Rodgers.  
 

And none of the current top teams QBs are going anywhere.  
 

 

Time to move on.  Immediately.