Is 10 Wins enough to make the playoffs? What is the path to 10 wins?

[Matt_In_NH]

10-7 could go either way, probably more likely in than out.

[PBF81]

On 11/6/2023 at 8:09 AM, dorquemada said:

Not sure!  There's no game on that list that I would put money on the Bills winning.  They're not getting to 10 wins.

 

Denver is a question mark, but certainly getting better while the Bills are getting worse.  If the Bills have any professional pride whatsoever they win this game running away but they don't so they won't.  Watch for an even less creative O next week as the coaching staff shrinks from the moment.  Allen's sulky teenager act continues. 

 

The Jets have our number.  Their D is too good and our O is an uncoordinated mess that only works under a very specific set of circumstances that the Jets are not obliged to provide.  This game is where the wheels completely come off, which leads to

 

Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers.  I dont see a win in any of those, maybe LA, but not if they are fighting for a playoff spot.  There is real potential for a 0-7 run here, and this team is not built to stop a slide. 

 

After that it really doesn't matter.  I suppose they come back and look good in wins over the Pats and Miami, but it'll be too late and only move us down the draft order, and probably convince the Pegulas to give McD another chance.  This team is mentally as soft as tissue paper, and aren't even entertaining any more.

 

 

 

Interesting comment, great points!

 

Regarding your comment that they're not entertaining anymore, I wouldn't disagree but would add that it's due to their blatant underachievement.  If we were 5-4 while playing our best or would be different, but that's far from the case.  

 

 

[PBF81]

On 11/6/2023 at 8:43 AM, BuffaloBaumer said:

10 wins will mean absolutely nothing, we lose every tiebreaker. It’s division title or bust,  and our schedule will not allow that either. 

 

This season is shaping up like our 2017 season where we beat a bunch of scrubs, got a ton of luck, and if we do make the playoffs it'll likely be over a few teams that deserved it more than we do.  And then what, get crushed even worse than 2017 in the playoffs.  

 

Honestly though, 5-3 over our next 8?  Who really sees that happening.  Well be lucky to go 4-4.  

 

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by PBF81

[BillsfaninChicago]

Wow looking at this schedule we have tough row to TikTok influencer…

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

On 11/6/2023 at 8:52 AM, BillsFan130 said:

still a lot of conference games to go for tie breakers

 

Jets, Denver, pats, chargers.

 

All winnable games there

Remember when ALL games were “winnable” and we would roll into anyone’s house with confidence?  Speaks volumes that  we’re back to picking the weakest remaining opponents as the winnable games. 

[Gregg]

To many conference losses so the tiebreakers won't go their way. Need to catch Miami since they probably won't get in as a WC. As for 10 wins. Need to run the table at home and finish 8-0. I don't count London as a home game. Have to beat Miami on the final Sunday obviously. If they could split with the Chiefs and Eagles or beat the Chargers, then that probably gives them the AFCE.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

On 11/6/2023 at 4:51 PM, SoCal Deek said:

Why does that so remind me of things I often typed during the drought years? 

Not exactly. More like “the Bills control their own destiny to squeeze in as the weakest wild card, only to be dispatched with ease” 😂

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

Looking at the NYT playoff predictor as of now 10 is a must. This assumes we win Denver, Ny, Pats and Chargers.

 

Losing to La would be very bad for us even if we pick up another game it seems. (Actually this can happen but Miami is a must win)

89 percent chance if we beat Miami and and lose to Dallas, Phili , Kc

 

80 percent if we lose to Miami, Dallas and Phily but beat KC

70 percent if we lose to Kc, Phily Miami but beat Dallas

 

68 percent if we beat Phili, lose to Dallas, Miami and Kc 

 

 

If we can squeeze out another win somewhere and get 11  

 

Thats my optimistic post for the day. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by loveorhatembillsfan4life

[CaptnCoke11]

Going by what they look like now I see 3-5 a pretty likely outcome in the final 8 games.  

[dorquemada]

1 hour ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Remember when ALL games were “winnable” and we would roll into anyone’s house with confidence?  Speaks volumes that  we’re back to picking the weakest remaining opponents as the winnable games. 

 

We'll learn a lot about this team over the next month but sometimes you are what your record says you are, and in this case I think the Bills are basically a .500 team, we'll win (most) of our games against bad teams, and lose against anyone over .500.  We'll steal one against one of the good teams if the ball bounces a certain way, we get some mercy calls from the refs, and the other team has a bad day

[BuffaloBillyG]

I know most refuse to see it but the division is still firmly in play. First up, Buffalo has to handle their business. The next 2 against Denver and the Jets are very winnable at home in the Ralph. We get the Pats at home as well. I don't see Mac sweeping us. So the wins I see:

 

Denver

Jets

Pats

 

Then I go to games I expect the Bills to lose. There's only one and that's the Eagles. Didn't have it down as a win before the season.

 

That accounts for us being 8-5 realistically. So then we have what I call the toss up games. 

 

Chiefs: I think we match up well. I see this game coming down to who has their offense more fixed by the time we play. 

 

Chargers: Very winnable. Chargers seem to be one of those " always plays us tough" teams.

 

Cowboys: Capable of coming into Buffalo and winning. 

 

Miami: Final week possibly for the division. Allen does great things against them traditionally.

 

As long as some semblance of offense emerges Buffalo can win any or all of these games. 

 

Also, we need to see what Miami has left. They have a 1 game lead on us with games against:

 

Raiders, Commanders, Titans. All wins for them I count. Gets them to 9 wins.

 

Still 2 games against the Jets. That D of theirs could be a matchup nightmare. I expect them to split this series. That gets them to 10 wins.

 

They also play the Cowboys, Ravens and us. They could plausibly lose all 3. 

[dorquemada]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I know most refuse to see it but the division is still firmly in play. First up, Buffalo has to handle their business. The next 2 against Denver and the Jets are very winnable at home in the Ralph. We get the Pats at home as well. I don't see Mac sweeping us. So the wins I see:

 

Denver

Jets

Pats

 

Then I go to games I expect the Bills to lose. There's only one and that's the Eagles. Didn't have it down as a win before the season.

 

That accounts for us being 8-5 realistically. So then we have what I call the toss up games. 

 

Chiefs: I think we match up well. I see this game coming down to who has their offense more fixed by the time we play. 

 

Chargers: Very winnable. Chargers seem to be one of those " always plays us tough" teams.

 

Cowboys: Capable of coming into Buffalo and winning. 

 

Miami: Final week possibly for the division. Allen does great things against them traditionally.

 

As long as some semblance of offense emerges Buffalo can win any or all of these games. 

 

Also, we need to see what Miami has left. They have a 1 game lead on us with games against:

 

Raiders, Commanders, Titans. All wins for them I count. Gets them to 9 wins.

 

Still 2 games against the Jets. That D of theirs could be a matchup nightmare. I expect them to split this series. That gets them to 10 wins.

 

They also play the Cowboys, Ravens and us. They could plausibly lose all 3. 

 

When I'm looking at the remaining schedule, the biggest factor I see is if the other team needs the win to stay in the hunt for the playoffs or get homefield.  With that in mind, the list of winnable games gets a lot smaller because the Bills don't have any fight in them, and even a 'lesser' team like the Chargers comes in needing a win, they're going to pull out all the stops while Dorsey experiments with playcalling leading to a bunch of 3 and out drives.  The Bills just seem really fragile right now and the slightest disappointment causes them to disappear for long stretches of games.  I've never seen anything like it.

 

At the end of the day, a team is a reflection of it's leadership, both players and coaches.  Right now, the Bills are poorly led

[Drew21PA]

Disappointment aside

 

im not impressed with these “tough teams” coming up

 

i think we can beat everyone but the eagles in philly

 

call me crazy but

7 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I know most refuse to see it but the division is still firmly in play. First up, Buffalo has to handle their business. The next 2 against Denver and the Jets are very winnable at home in the Ralph. We get the Pats at home as well. I don't see Mac sweeping us. So the wins I see:

 

Denver

Jets

Pats

 

Then I go to games I expect the Bills to lose. There's only one and that's the Eagles. Didn't have it down as a win before the season.

 

That accounts for us being 8-5 realistically. So then we have what I call the toss up games. 

 

Chiefs: I think we match up well. I see this game coming down to who has their offense more fixed by the time we play. 

 

Chargers: Very winnable. Chargers seem to be one of those " always plays us tough" teams.

 

Cowboys: Capable of coming into Buffalo and winning. 

 

Miami: Final week possibly for the division. Allen does great things against them traditionally.

 

As long as some semblance of offense emerges Buffalo can win any or all of these games. 

 

Also, we need to see what Miami has left. They have a 1 game lead on us with games against:

 

Raiders, Commanders, Titans. All wins for them I count. Gets them to 9 wins.

 

Still 2 games against the Jets. That D of theirs could be a matchup nightmare. I expect them to split this series. That gets them to 10 wins.

 

They also play the Cowboys, Ravens and us. They could plausibly lose all 3. 

I see the dolphins losing out as well like they always do 😂😂😂😂

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, dorquemada said:

 

When I'm looking at the remaining schedule, the biggest factor I see is if the other team needs the win to stay in the hunt for the playoffs or get homefield.  With that in mind, the list of winnable games gets a lot smaller because the Bills don't have any fight in them, and even a 'lesser' team like the Chargers comes in needing a win, they're going to pull out all the stops while Dorsey experiments with playcalling leading to a bunch of 3 and out drives.  The Bills just seem really fragile right now and the slightest disappointment causes them to disappear for long stretches of games.  I've never seen anything like it.

 

At the end of the day, a team is a reflection of it's leadership, both players and coaches.  Right now, the Bills are poorly led

This response absolutely positively REEKS of projection. 

 

"Oh the Bills don't have any fight in them....oh they are fragile". 

 

Nah, fam, if you think they aren't going to fight when their back is against the wall...I don't know what to tell you. 

 

This fanbase has become increasingly soft. This fanbase is what cannot handle adversity or stumbling. We sat for 17 years and watched crap football every Sunday. At least some of us did. I would bet the most vocal here now airing their displeasure were the same ones that would "have the game on in the background" or be out looking for antiques with their wife when the team was bad. You know, those people that start their post "I've been a Bills fan for ___ years....". You know, those that never post or have ***** all to say when the team is good...but man oh man...when the Bills lose are wayyyyyyy to eager to air their "opinion". Not saying it's you...it's just exhausting, ya know?

 

 

[Chaos]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

As long as some semblance of offense emerges Buffalo can win any or all of these games. 

Everything except for this sentence seems well thought out in your post (at least I agree with the rest).

 

The Bills defense has not been able to make a critical stop since London (one can argue the goal line stance that only happened because of crappy defense against the giants was a stop).  But the last possession against the Bengals was more telling.  The only time in the second half it truly mattered to Cincy whether or not they moved the ball, the defense reverted to "let them go through us like a hot knife through butter" mode. 

The Bills are fully capable of losing to the Chiefs or Chargers 42-40, or some other similar shootout score. If the defense doesn't play better, then "semblance of an offense" won't be close to enough.  Unless of course by "sembalance of an offense" means, Josh Allen has to play at his full record shattering level potential and lead the offense to 40+ points. 

[dorquemada]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

This response absolutely positively REEKS of projection. 

 

"Oh the Bills don't have any fight in them....oh they are fragile". 

 

Nah, fam, if you think they aren't going to fight when their back is against the wall...I don't know what to tell you. 

 

This fanbase has become increasingly soft. This fanbase is what cannot handle adversity or stumbling. We sat for 17 years and watched crap football every Sunday. At least some of us did. I would bet the most vocal here now airing their displeasure were the same ones that would "have the game on in the background" or be out looking for antiques with their wife when the team was bad. You know, those people that start their post "I've been a Bills fan for ___ years....". You know, those that never post or have ***** all to say when the team is good...but man oh man...when the Bills lose are wayyyyyyy to eager to air their "opinion". Not saying it's you...it's just exhausting, ya know?

 

 

 

Nah, it's me, but this team is incredibly frustrating.  They ARE fragile, or at least mentally lazy, in that they disappear for quarters at a time with Allen moping by himself on the bench.  Then they realize they're in a football game and furiously come back, but that trick is wearing thin and frankly, not working.  The record speaks for itself.  They're a team with a ton of talent and a mediocre record.  You can say what you like but they're not a great team or even a good one at this point.

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Everything except for this sentence seems well thought out in your post (at least I agree with the rest).

 

The Bills defense has not been able to make a critical stop since London (one can argue the goal line stance that only happened because of crappy defense against the giants was a stop).  But the last possession against the Bengals was more telling.  The only time in the second half it truly mattered to Cincy whether or not they moved the ball, the defense reverted to "let them go through us like a hot knife through butter" mode. 

The Bills are fully capable of losing to the Chiefs or Chargers 42-40, or some other similar shootout score. If the defense doesn't play better, then "semblance of an offense" won't be close to enough.  Unless of course by "sembalance of an offense" means, Josh Allen has to play at his full record shattering level potential and lead the offense to 40+ points. 

Well, you're not wrong about the defense on that last drive, especially. However right now the way I see it bringing in Joseph and Douglas SHOULD help bring them back closer to a normal functional baseline IMO. They both played pretty well against Cincy and I expect them to get better with more time adjusting to the system and guys around them. 

 

Also worth pointing out that on that last drive we had Bernard out (and he may miss this week as well😬). Our LBers were Williams and Dodson, I believe. We had Josh Norman on the field taking defensive snaps in the year 2023. No clue why Von was out there, either. And did Hyde ever come back in?

 

Point being, while that last drive was a killer we were hardly prepared to stop anyone from a personal standpoint. 

[Chaos]

7 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Point being, while that last drive was a killer we were hardly prepared to stop anyone from a personal standpoint. 

Why do you think the personnel situation will improve? Joseph and Douglas?

[BuffaloBillyG]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Why do you think the personnel situation will improve? Joseph and Douglas?

Yes. I believe they will help. Not necessarily solve the issues completely, but I would say Joseph and Douglas should be a step up from Ford and Jackson.

[Jrb1979]

8 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I know most refuse to see it but the division is still firmly in play. First up, Buffalo has to handle their business. The next 2 against Denver and the Jets are very winnable at home in the Ralph. We get the Pats at home as well. I don't see Mac sweeping us. So the wins I see:

 

Denver

Jets

Pats

 

Then I go to games I expect the Bills to lose. There's only one and that's the Eagles. Didn't have it down as a win before the season.

 

That accounts for us being 8-5 realistically. So then we have what I call the toss up games. 

 

Chiefs: I think we match up well. I see this game coming down to who has their offense more fixed by the time we play. 

 

Chargers: Very winnable. Chargers seem to be one of those " always plays us tough" teams.

 

Cowboys: Capable of coming into Buffalo and winning. 

 

Miami: Final week possibly for the division. Allen does great things against them traditionally.

 

As long as some semblance of offense emerges Buffalo can win any or all of these games. 

 

Also, we need to see what Miami has left. They have a 1 game lead on us with games against:

 

Raiders, Commanders, Titans. All wins for them I count. Gets them to 9 wins.

 

Still 2 games against the Jets. That D of theirs could be a matchup nightmare. I expect them to split this series. That gets them to 10 wins.

 

They also play the Cowboys, Ravens and us. They could plausibly lose all 3. 

They will be lucky to win 9 games. The offense has been awful for the majority of the season. Out of the 9 games they have played they have scored 24 or less in 6 of them. Stick a fork in them. Time to watch the Sabres